As real developers I can see where both of you guys are coming from. Prior to my retiring a large part of my job was managing a team that included developers and I can say that while I wasn't as seasoned as they are I could now do what I couldn't do back then and would no longer need to rely on them.
One of the issues I’m seeing in the wild is a sheer disconnect between management, overworked PMs, and the engineers tasked with delivering results. So you’ll forgive me if I say this doesn’t necessarily add credibility, IMO. I generally find myself having to manage up quite often to ensure my manager actually understands what the engineer is actually bringing to the table, and that’s been true my whole career. And sometimes even an engineer in management can get them underestimating the work that’s actually involved because they think they have all the context for a given problem when they don’t. Especially when software development has been notoriously hard to estimate effort required and requires understanding of the tech debt inherent in a given codebase to even begin to try.
If you think you can produce something of value with an idea and an LLM, what makes you think an engineer with an idea and LLM can’t push faster than you? And wouldn’t you then see the value in having engineers augmented by LLMs versus jettisoning them?
That said, in my experience, there is a huge space that software development has covered in the last 20ish years when everyone had to become, at least in part, a tech company. And that was borne out by the fact that I had job interviews offering anywhere between 35k to 100k/yr out of college for fundamentally the same job. And this is where low-code/no-code platforms have really flourished, by eating away at the low end of the software development market where a lot of LOB apps live and there’s not a lot of skill demand because these days it is all CRUD. I remember when MSFT was pushing .NET (especially VB.NET) as the way to make LOB apps cheaper. Now it’s PowerApps.
One thing I do see is that LLMs will continue to roll back the “everyone’s now a tech company” that low-code and various SaaS B2B platforms helped with, and I’d even argue that it will undermine some of this low-code space. The apps made here aren’t exactly high-quality stuff, they are made to budget to fill a particular internal need. So I can see LLMs commodifying the LOB space even more. But LLMs are not going to be what pushes the state of the art. Especially when it can only be trained on what already exists.
When it comes to dealing with all the overhead of an employee, time zone differences, meetings, scheduling, etc. there's just no comparison. I hate saying that but it's the reality.
The problem here is that the code itself isn’t the value. It’s what the product can do that is the value. The _engineering_ that happens is there to try to make sure that when the users start threatening to leave, services go down, or the direction needs to change, it’s actually possible to do that without going bankrupt in the process, because the code isn’t a complete mess. Not to vomit code. It’s never been that, despite some really dumb metrics like kLoCs used to measure productivity. Ballmer, for all his issues, understood this very well. His issue was poor direction, which LLMs won’t solve one bit.
In my experience, adding LLMs didn’t actually solve any of these other time sinks you list here. Because it’s not the production of code that engineering is ultimately about. The code is the artifact, yes, and in the long run, it is the liability. The irony is that engineers also complain about the overhead of management, meetings, etc from what they are expected to deliver. You see that developer as a burden and overhead, but they are also the ones trying to keep things on the rails for you.
So far, we haven’t actually seen companies claim success in cutting development teams in favor of LLMs. Just that they’ve been doing it, and some have reversed course after doing it.
Honestly, I think Cory Doctrow makes a good argument around this here:
https://pluralistic.net/2026/01/06/1000x-liability/#graceful-failure-modes