Like you I have no idea how reliable these estimates are. Someone like
@Andropov or
@Nycturne might know.
If they are reliable, then these two quotes stand out to me:
Basically consumers are uncomfortable with the idea of buying and playing these games on mobile devices and potentially see the experience as less than what they would get elsewhere and even if they are comfortable with it, if they are AAA-gaming enthusiasts have likely already purchased these games elsewhere and played them.
I agree with the first part of this. I own most of these games and the experience isn’t great on my iPhone 15 Pro Max. Getting a decent frame rate is a struggle.
I see this second argument a lot and perhaps it’s true: that’s there’s a finite amount of people who could be interested in these kinds of AAA games and we’ve reached the limit. They all use other devices. I do think possibility for new markets to open up to high end gaming exists, but it is difficult to reach I imagine. I am at a state in my life where I simply won’t have multiple computers or consoles. If the games arrive on macOS, great. If they don’t, I will be sad, but I’m not going to buy other computers to play them.
This is why some people have suggested that Apple need to throw good money at getting either an exclusive or at least a larger number of same-day AAA titles if they really want to start moving the needle. A complementary idea to getting exclusive or same day AAA games is to create an Apple-branded console, either based on the AppleTV-Playstation/Xbox concept or iPad-Switch/SteamDeck concept. Its internals wouldn't have to be any different and could run TVOS (or iPadOS) but would be packaged as a gaming focused machine, sold with both an Apple remote and Apple game controllers. It wouldn't have to be sold at a loss and would use its integration with the rest of the Apple ecosystem (play the game anywhere! - i.e. developers would have to agree that games made available to this gaming machine would have to be made available to any device, Mac or mobile, that are supported by their base specifications - use your current iPad/iPhone as an optional, keyword optional, second screen controller!).
Yes, I am very amenable to these ideas. I do think if Apple wants to move the needle, money probably needs to be spent. I heard the other day that Apple is spending 250 Million dollars on an F1 film. They seem to be completely unaware or not interested enough to make this kind of investment. I remember a year or so ago, Nat Brown, one of the main Game framework people at Apple (ex-Xbox, ex-Valve) was talking to an indie dev about bringing their game to the Mac. A third party joined in and said something to the effect of “just throw some of Apple’s money at him”. Nat replied “I wish” and hinted in no uncertain terms that there was no money for this kind of thing, but that Apple was willing to help in terms of technical help and possibly actual development work. That is to say, I think Apple is happy to make frameworks, tools and resolve technical issues that prevent porting of games, but they seem unwilling to directly pay for a game or game exclusivity. A weird stance given that engineers time is also money!
The lack of interest in Apple-based AAA gaming is a mindset/cultural problem and that can be very stubborn thing to change without a frameshift. Apple spent so long in the weeds in the AAA gaming market that they have to completely reset developers' and consumers' expectations. That's why the SteamDeck is an important vehicle for Valve to sell its vision of SteamOS. It's just Linux reskinned on an AMD chip, but it changes the way people think about Linux on an AMD chip.
I worry that Apple thinks it is doing what is required. After the release of the A17 Pro and M3 there was quite a bit of praise for the new gpu architecture. During some of the discussion about these gpus there was the following exchange between someone and Gokhan Avkarogullari (Gpu driver manager for Apple Silicon).
https://Twitter or X not allowed/DeanoC/status/1666323315349245954
This was Gokhan’s reply:
https://Twitter or X not allowed/gavkar/status/1666325480084234241