# Elon Musk - Tesla FSD price rising to $12k on Jan 17



## Eric

I know @quagmire brought this up in another reply but thought it was worth it's own thread. Personally, I can't justify this, especially for something in beta with no real release in site. Hoping the subscription model doesn't go up too much though, may still use that for trips.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1479590995595517958/


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## Cmaier

Eric said:


> I know @quagmire brought this up in another reply but thought it was worth it's own thread. Personally, I can't justify this, especially for something in beta with no real release in site. Hoping the subscription model doesn't go up too much though, may still use that for trips.
> 
> https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1479590995595517958/




Agreed. In the month where i had a loaner with supposed FSD, it was something that actually made driving worse. If you turned it on you had to have your hands on the wheel and anticipate what the car might do so you were ready to overrule It.  I hated it.  

Divide 12k into how many years you think you’ll own the car. Then think of how many Uber rides you can get for that price - even better than FSD is somebody else to drive for you


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## Eric

Cmaier said:


> Agreed. In the month where i had a loaner with supposed FSD, it was something that actually made driving worse. If you turned it on you had to have your hands on the wheel and anticipate what the car might do so you were ready to overrule It.  I hated it.
> 
> Divide 12k into how many years you think you’ll own the car. Then think of how many Uber rides you can get for that price - even better than FSD is somebody else to drive for you



Yeah, the need to have your hands on the wheel and feet on standby for the pedals in town makes it almost redundant. It works well on the highway but every video I've seen on it shows issues unless there is clearly defined roadways and signs, hardly seems worth paying extra for. 

However, the bigger issue for me is paying that much money for software that is tethered only to the car and not the driver. It's like buying software that will only work in one computer and it's a terrible model, it's in all models and just switched on or off anyway. I think they have a lot to work out with this but I do like that I can subscribe if I choose when it's more ready for prime time.


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## SuperMatt

$12,000 for a software update? I guess there are people with more dollars than sense that will buy it.


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## User.45

Eric said:


> Yeah, the need to have your hands on the wheel and feet on standby for the pedals in town makes it almost redundant. It works well on the highway but every video I've seen on it shows issues unless there is clearly defined roadways and signs, hardly seems worth paying extra for.
> 
> However, the bigger issue for me is paying that much money for software that is tethered only to the car and not the driver. It's like buying software that will only work in one computer and it's a terrible model, it's in all models and just switched on or off anyway. I think they have a lot to work out with this but I do like that I can subscribe if I choose when it's more ready for prime time.



@quagmire commented about this, and I agree with him. If this is a long-term license that passes on to your next car, it would keep people in the tesla "ecosystem" and would be worth it. OTOH other carmakers have systems as functional as Tesla's who charge way way less for these features.


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## Eric

SuperMatt said:


> $12,000 for a software update? I guess there are people with more dollars than sense that will buy it.



Musk is shameless, as it is the car takes off like a bat out of hell and yet you still have this option to knock off half a second in your upgrades section. It's hard not to laugh at the balls on this guy but at the same time he knows how to milk people, they love giving him their money.


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## User.45

Eric said:


> Musk is shameless, as it is the car takes off like a bat out of hell and yet you still have this option to knock off half a second in your upgrades section. It's hard not to laugh at the balls on this guy but at the same time he knows how to milk people, they love giving him their money.



On one end, it's nice to see continued product support, on the other, this is a joke.


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## DT

I'm assuming the monthly will see the same 20% increase, or possibly even a little more to like $250


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## Eric

P_X said:


> On one end, it's nice to see continued product support, on the other, this is a joke.



I don't have the budget for that sort of thing but I can imagine for those who are loaded it's fun to whimsically download your addon like a regular person would a cheap app on your iPhone.


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## DT

re: Acceleration Boost

I'll just repost what I already said about it:

It's an additional bit of performance for people who want it, and for people who don't - i.e., it's fast enough, and/or want the best range from the model, they can opt not to pay the extra. It also keeps the model variants down, otherwise, they'd need something like a Model 3 LR __and__ a Model 3 LR Type-R 

It's no different than things like this from Ford:






It's an OEM, warranty backed performance update - Tesla just happens to be able to do it via an OTA update vs. bolting on parts and flashing the ECU via the OBD port.


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## User.45

DT said:


> I'm assuming the monthly will see the same 20% increase, or possibly even a little more to like $250



As @Cmaier said, that covers a lot of taxi rides.


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## User.45

Eric said:


> I don't have the budget for that sort of thing but I can imagine for those who are loaded it's fun to whimsically download your addon like a regular person would a cheap app on your iPhone.



All I can say it's still chump change compared to daycare in the USA, LOL. A kid costs a loaded tesla annually.


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## DT

P_X said:


> As @Cmaier said, that covers a lot of taxi rides.




Sure.  It's a no interest for me, so I don't even care about the pricing.  I bought ours with the assumption I'd never buy FSD, in fact, none of the automated driving tech from any manufacturer is on my radar, like you said, that's a taxi


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## Eric

DT said:


> re: Acceleration Boost
> 
> I'll just repost what I already said about it:
> 
> It's an additional bit of performance for people who want it, and for people who don't - i.e., it's fast enough, and/or want the best range from the model, they can opt not to pay the extra. It also keeps the model variants down, otherwise, they'd need something like a Model 3 LR __and__ a Model 3 LR Type-R
> 
> It's no different than things like this from Ford:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's an OEM, warranty backed performance update - Tesla just happens to be able to do it via an OTA update vs. bolting on parts and flashing the ECU via the OBD port.



It's a nice way of justifying $2000 to flip a digital switch that already exists.


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## DT

Eric said:


> It's a nice way of justifying $2000 to flip a digital switch that already exists.




Think about it the other way around,  they could've made the LR come with that standard - and charged another $2000.    There are a ton of people with LRs that say they have zero interest in a faster car, that eats tires quicker, reduces the range 20%, etc.  I am all for OEM / warrantied performance updates that are totally optional, which is really all that is.

FWIW, if there's ever a Performance model paid update for faster performance, I'm there day one


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## User.45

DT said:


> Sure.  It's a no interest for me, so I don't even care about the pricing.  I bought ours with the assumption I'd never buy FSD, in fact, none of the automated driving tech from any manufacturer is on my radar, like you said, that's a taxi



In California doing a lot of locum tenens work in a 300 mile radius can be extremely lucrative if you're willing to drive 3-4H a day. So for someone doing that, $12K would be chump change and pay for itself in a week or two. But again the technology is not more relaxing than just choosing a simple route and turning advanced cruise control on with LKA.


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## Eric

P_X said:


> In California doing a lot of locum tenens work in a 300 mile radius can be extremely lucrative if you're willing to drive 3-4H a day. So for someone doing that, $12K would be chump change and pay for itself in a week or two. But again the technology is not more relaxing than just choosing a simple route and turning advanced cruise control on with LKA.



I'm definitely interested in the tech side of FSD and if it weren't in constant beta I might be more interested but it has way too many glitches for $10,00 (and now $12,000) it's just not worth that much money to me. Being on a budget I would've financed it in with the price of the car anyway, no way I have that sort of disposable cash to add on after.

However, the LKA/ACC that comes with this car is flat out awesome and works 99.999% of the time perfectly for me, worlds ahead of the 2020 BMW and that's where I can see the real world benefits of the self driving system.


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## DT

It's funny, I spent time working in CV, I've done a decent amount of ML work (mostly in the medical space), I've been in the tech sector professionally for, oh geez, let's say, a long time  but I also come from kind of an old school perspective on driving, I'm OK with an occasional "keep the car in my lane", and while I've abandoned things like manual transmissions, I'll never not be in full driver mode 99% of the time.

I'm also not giving up my collection of 8-track tapes ...


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## Yoused

DT said:


> Sure.  It's a no interest for me, so I don't even care about the pricing.  I bought ours with the assumption I'd never buy FSD, in fact, none of the automated driving tech from any manufacturer is on my radar, like you said, that's a taxi



Yet, I remember a story about a car (Toyota I think it was) that refused to slow down on the highway, causing a crash (presumably because the driver did not understand what the "N" was for). The tech is still there, in the car, and I would be a bit leery of it branching into uninitialized code and causing your car to misbehave. Not activating the neat features might not be enough to protect you fr9m them.


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## quagmire

Yoused said:


> Yet, I remember a story about a car (Toyota I think it was) that refused to slow down on the highway, causing a crash (presumably because the driver did not understand what the "N" was for). The tech is still there, in the car, and I would be a bit leery of it branching into uninitialized code and causing your car to misbehave. Not activating the neat features might not be enough to protect you fr9m them.




That was caused by either the floor mats causing the pedal to get stuck or the gas pedal itself being sticky. 

No fault in the software causing unintended acceleration. And every case accusing that their Tesla accelerated out of control have been proven bunk too.


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## Cmaier

quagmire said:


> That was caused by either the floor mats causing the pedal to get stuck or the gas pedal itself being sticky.
> 
> No fault in the software causing unintended acceleration. And every case accusing that their Tesla accelerated out of control have been proven bunk too.




At least once a week i get in my tesla and the radio doesn’t work.  Sometimes I have to call tesla to have them remotely fix it, and other times it starts working again after 24 hours.  Almost every day my “favorites” are missing unless I tap dance on the screen to make them come back.

If tesla can’t write software that can make a radio work, I don’t trust them to write software that won’t crash me into the medium at the 85/101 interchange in Mountain View.


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## quagmire

Cmaier said:


> At least once a week i get in my tesla and the radio doesn’t work.  Sometimes I have to call tesla to have them remotely fix it, and other times it starts working again after 24 hours.  Almost every day my “favorites” are missing unless I tap dance on the screen to make them come back.
> 
> If tesla can’t write software that can make a radio work, I don’t trust them to write software that won’t crash me into the medium at the 85/101 interchange in Mountain View.




Oh I wouldn't trust FSD either for what people want FSD to be( completely hands off, etc). 

I was just stating to the person I was replying to that the case of the whole unintended acceleration issue Toyota's experienced was not software going amok.


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## Eric

quagmire said:


> Oh I wouldn't trust FSD either for what people want FSD to be( completely hands off, etc).
> 
> I was just stating to the person I was replying to that the case of the whole unintended acceleration issue Toyota's experienced was not software going amok.



I get it may be a different conversation but even in the best case scenario with the software completely bug free, you still have to have your hands and feet there anyway. It's just hard to justify for that cost on any level.


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## AG_PhamD

$12,000, or even $10,000, is an awful lot of money to spend on beta software… and who knows when it will really come into what people really expect it be. I don’t think you can fairly compare the cost to taxis as it’s not like you can sit in the back of the car and relax. Speaking of which, we’re waiting for 2020 to be the year of Tesla robotaxis.

I suppose the value of FSD depends on how long you expect the car to last. I think it’s still a bit too early to really understand the lifespan of EV’s, particularly Teslas. Considering the battery warranty is 8 years, I think it’s fair to assume at least that. Most cars today average 12 years. Obviously once the battery dies the car is done. But if the batteries get 300k-500k miles as claimed, it’s entirely possible if not likely other components of the car will fail before that and be not worth fixing- drive motors, suspension parts, electronics, HVAC system, rust, etc. It’s also worth noting the number of charge/discharge cycles is not the only factor in the lifespan of batteries- time itself degrades them.

But if you can get 11-12 years out of a Tesla, $1,000/yr doesn’t sound too terrible. But most people will sell their car before that. I’m not sure how much value it’ll add on the resale market- probably a fair amount but not nearly as much as you paid.

The way I see it, we are a long ways away from fully autonomous cars. Commercial airliners have millions of dollars of automation packed into them and decades of development but still rely on pilots to oversee the automation. Most big planes have the ability to auto-land (provided appropriate wind conditions and airport hardware), but it’s not a commonly used function. Obviously planes have much bigger safety concerns than cars, but considering how less complex flying through air is than driving on roads and we’re a long ways off from pilotless airliners, I don’t see truly fully autonomous cars and robotaxis being a reality for quite some time, but I’m sure it will happen.

Volvo apparently is soon to release an EV that comes standard with LIDAR for its semi-autonomous driving features. Apparently the company making the LIDAR sensors, Luminar, says they will cost $1000 and could get down to $500. Far cheaper than the many thousands they traditionally cost. Assuming these sensors work reliably and the target price can be met, it’s a pretty exciting capability for manufactures.


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## Yoused

AG_PhamD said:


> Obviously once the battery dies the car is done.



Fortunately, these are not iCars. The battery is entirely replaceable (albeit expensive). If it is a car you really like, or really do not want to do archaeology on, you might well pay the freight. And it is a pretty quick job, AAUI.


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## quagmire

Yoused said:


> Fortunately, these are not iCars. The battery is entirely replaceable (albeit expensive). If it is a car you really like, or really do not want to do archaeology on, you might well pay the freight. And it is a pretty quick job, AAUI.




Think his point is not that the battery isn't replaceable, but it wouldn't make sense to replace the battery economically. 

Despite the claims Musk made years ago about battery replacement costs would drop over time, it still costs $22,000 to replace a Model S pack( same as it did back in 2013....) and about $17,000 for a Model 3 pack replacement. Not only is it ridiculously expensive to replace the battery, it isn't even a new battery. It's a remanufactured battery only guaranteed to 70% of a new packs capacity. Oh and if you want the old battery back( apparently some people have wanted the old battery back....), it is now $36,000 to replace one in a Model S.......


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## AG_PhamD

Yoused said:


> Fortunately, these are not iCars. The battery is entirely replaceable (albeit expensive). If it is a car you really like, or really do not want to do archaeology on, you might well pay the freight. And it is a pretty quick job, AAUI.




It’s highly unlikely anyone is going to spend $18-22,000 replacing their battery on an 10+ year old car. 

Again, there is this assumption that because EV’s have no engine and (usually) no transmission (Taycan being an exception), that they have an near infinite lifespan. But the reality is they will likely suffer the same wear and treat and failures of other systems that often bring the EOL of ICE vehicles other than the drivetrain when the cost of replacing those parts exceeds the practical value of the car. 
I would argue Teslas are like an iCar in that that Tesla will not repair batteries, they will only replace them. That is very unfortunate and similar to an engine having a leaking seal and saying you need to replace the entire engine. It’s something they should really consider changing their policy on. 

Tesla claims 300-500k miles of life with current batteries and there are cars that have achieved within that range, but I’m not sure that takes into consideration degradation from age. Typically lithium ion batteries last 10-15 years regardless of use. In other words, I suspect you could drive 500k miles, but only if you accomplish that within a 10-15 year period at the most. 

What would be cool is if and when battery technology gets to a point where they have long enough longevity that they outlive the lifespan of the rest of the vehicle. That battery could be transferred to a new vehicle. Perhaps even the drive motor too.


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## Cmaier

quagmire said:


> Think his point is not that the battery isn't replaceable, but it wouldn't make sense to replace the battery economically.
> 
> Despite the claims Musk made years ago about battery replacement costs would drop over time, it still costs $22,000 to replace a Model S pack( same as it did back in 2013....) and about $17,000 for a Model 3 pack replacement. Not only is it ridiculously expensive to replace the battery, it isn't even a new battery. It's a remanufactured battery only guaranteed to 70% of a new packs capacity. Oh and if you want the old battery back( apparently some people have wanted the old battery back....), it is now $36,000 to replace one in a Model S.......




Yep. When the battery goes on my 2013 model S, no way i can justify 22k for a degraded replacement pack.  Will have to get a new car instead. (At the moment, I guess I’d get a Model 3, as I no longer need the hauling capacity and never really needed the speed of the S. Plus I want an actual steering wheel.)


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## Eric

Cmaier said:


> Yep. When the battery goes on my 2013 model S, no way i can justify 22k for a degraded replacement pack.  Will have to get a new car instead. (At the moment, I guess I’d get a Model 3, as I no longer need the hauling capacity and never really needed the speed of the S. Plus I want an actual steering wheel.)



Sounds like a pretty good life for a car though, also seems like you liked it enough to buy a newer model too. I was the same way with BMWs for many years and kept upgrading them before finally making the move to Tesla.


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## Cmaier

Eric said:


> Sounds like a pretty good life for a car though, also seems like you liked it enough to buy a newer model too. I was the same way with BMWs for many years and kept upgrading them before finally making the move to Tesla.




I’m too lazy to rip out my tesla charger and replace it with something else  

If the apple car comes out I’ll buy that. .


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## Yoused

Cmaier said:


> I’m too lazy to rip out my tesla charger and replace it with something else



There is an actual charger? I thought that was in the car and you just had to get the 240 out of the wall.


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## Cmaier

Yoused said:


> There is an actual charger? I thought that was in the car and you just had to get the 240 out of the wall.




You can do that. But I have an older version of this:









						Wall Connector
					

The Tesla Wall Connector is the most efficient way to charge a Tesla at home — just plug in your vehicle overnight and wake up to a charged vehicle.




					www.tesla.com
				




It’s installed on the wall and has its own circuit, with a bypass switch and everything.

Mine actually charges at 80A.  So that charges much faster than a 240V outlet. (Photo attached).


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## DT

Yoused said:


> There is an actual charger? I thought that was in the car and you just had to get the 240 out of the wall.




Yes, for AC supplied power, like Level 1 and 2 charging, the vehicle has the actual charger onboard.

However, you can't just plug a cord into a 240v outlet and the other end into the car.   That's where that device you hang on the wall, comes into play - it's not a "charger" but an EVSE  (it's pretty common to call it a charger), which is basically a power switch, some simple communication protocols and a specific car-side connector.  That's how you get the 240v out of the wall 

While you can hardwire an EVSE (see the post above mine), there's also a large number of products that plug-in to an outlet, and max out at 40amps, since the two NEMA high output outlet and circuit specs (N6-50 and N14-50) have a max of 50a (for an EV, you should only pull about 80% of the max circuit output).

Ours is below, the plug spec for the EVSE (aka, "charger") is 240v/40a using an N6-50, and it's plugged into a 50a circuit with an N6-50 receptacle.

FWIW, when you charge at a Supercharger or any DCFC, that's DC Fast Charging, i.e., it's actually supplying DC power, and that bypasses the onboard charger and goes directly to the batteries.


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## diamond.g

Cmaier said:


> At least once a week i get in my tesla and the radio doesn’t work.  Sometimes I have to call tesla to have them remotely fix it, and other times it starts working again after 24 hours.  Almost every day my “favorites” are missing unless I tap dance on the screen to make them come back.
> 
> If tesla can’t write software that can make a radio work, I don’t trust them to write software that won’t crash me into the medium at the 85/101 interchange in Mountain View.



They really should have stopped updating AP1 models a long time ago. It seems like every change they made to you guy’s cars just broke stuff that worked fine before.


As as aside is anyone here actually in the FSD (SIIIIGH) Beta. They really should have called it NoA City Streets, but what do I know.


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## Cmaier

diamond.g said:


> They really should have stopped updating AP1 models a long time ago. It seems like every change they made to you guy’s cars just broke stuff that worked fine before.
> 
> 
> As as aside is anyone here actually in the FSD (SIIIIGH) Beta. They really should have called it NoA City Streets, but what do I know.




Yep. And good to see you here!


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## Eric

DT said:


> Yes, for AC supplied power, like Level 1 and 2 charging, the vehicle has the actual charger onboard.
> 
> However, you can't just plug a cord into a 240v outlet and the other end into the car.   That's where that device you hang on the wall, comes into play - it's not a "charger" but an EVSE  (it's pretty common to call it a charger), which is basically a power switch, some simple communication protocols and a specific car-side connector.  That's how you get the 240v out of the wall
> 
> While you can hardwire an EVSE (see the post above mine), there's also a large number of products that plug-in to an outlet, and max out at 40amps, since the two NEMA high output outlet and circuit specs (N6-50 and N14-50) have a max of 50a (for an EV, you should only pull about 80% of the max circuit output).
> 
> Ours is below, the plug spec for the EVSE (aka, "charger") is 240v/40a using an N6-50, and it's plugged into a 50a circuit with an N6-50 receptacle.
> 
> FWIW, when you charge at a Supercharger or any DCFC, that's DC Fast Charging, i.e., it's actually supplying DC power, and that bypasses the onboard charger and goes directly to the batteries.
> 
> View attachment 11023



So are you getting any more than 32 amps out of that on the 50 amp circuit?


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## DT

Eric said:


> So are you getting any more than 32 amps out of that on the 50 amp circuit?




Yes, for the Tesla we get 40amps, the max rating of the Grizzl-E box.  That's about 36 miles/hour charge rate.

The Wrangler only supports 32amps, but that's all negotiated between the vehicle and EVSE, so the only change I make when charging either is whether I stick on the Tesla adapter.


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## DT

Cmaier said:


> Yep. When the battery goes on my 2013 model S, no way i can justify 22k for a degraded replacement pack.  Will have to get a new car instead. (At the moment, I guess I’d get a Model 3, as I no longer need the hauling capacity and never really needed the speed of the S. Plus I want an actual steering wheel.)




My Model 3 has been pretty much flawless.  It's never not worked in any capacity, I've done a full reset twice (and the second time was after an update, which I stopped doing ...).  My wipers wipe when needed or I simply tap the stalk, my interior electronics have functioned as expected, it's fast, looks great, roomy, the Model 3 has a nice tight feel like a 3-series with an M-sport package, the size is just right.

I considered an S LR, but didn't really need the bit of extra room (that comes at the expense of a bigger car with slightly more lethargic handling), had no desire for a rear seat display (even the little G who loves gaming said, "Why?"), and the current S LR and my Model 3 Performance are roughly equivalent in performance.  The extra range is nice, but after some what if plotting on ABRP, it didn't make much difference on our typical trips and for a car I'll probably drive 300-400 miles a month, I couldn't justify the $20K difference.  I will say if the Performance flavor came with the air suspension, but was another $5K, I would absolutely have done that.

If this car wasn't exceeding my expectations, I'd just return it, hahaha, the current early termination cost is $0.00


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## Yoused

DT said:


> FWIW, when you charge at a Supercharger or any DCFC, that's DC Fast Charging, i.e., it's actually supplying DC power, and that bypasses the onboard charger and goes directly to the batteries.



I get that the charger is primarily a fat bridge circuit that you need to have in there ITFP for regen braking (I think I read of some car or cars that have supercaps to catch as much of that as possible, but they would still need the bridge from the A/C motor), but where is charge management? Do the battery packs themselves have logic to prevent overcharging?

My other question would be about cold weather. I read that lithium batteries have some issues with charging properly when it is cold out. Does anyone include reverse cooling (warming them up a little) to mitigate that?


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## DT

Yoused said:


> I get that the charger is primarily a fat bridge circuit that you need to have in there ITFP for regen braking (I think I read of some car or cars that have supercaps to catch as much of that as possible, but they would still need the bridge from the A/C motor), but where is charge management? Do the battery packs themselves have logic to prevent overcharging?
> 
> My other question would be about cold weather. I read that lithium batteries have some issues with charging properly when it is cold out. Does anyone include reverse cooling (warming them up a little) to mitigate that?




I assume even with direct DC there's a decent amount of hardware/software inbetween/at the battery and the (external) charger.

Yes, there's pre-warming (aka, "pre-conditioning"), in the case of Tesla, if you choose a Supercharger as your destination, it begins the process at the appropriate time (you can also do this at home with scheduled charging).


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## Cmaier

Yoused said:


> I get that the charger is primarily a fat bridge circuit that you need to have in there ITFP for regen braking (I think I read of some car or cars that have supercaps to catch as much of that as possible, but they would still need the bridge from the A/C motor), but where is charge management? Do the battery packs themselves have logic to prevent overcharging?
> 
> My other question would be about cold weather. I read that lithium batteries have some issues with charging properly when it is cold out. Does anyone include reverse cooling (warming them up a little) to mitigate that?




At least on my tesla it pre-heats the pack when it knows it is going to charge. It also prevents regenerative breaking from overcharging until the pack is warm, and puts a line on the dashboard graph to show you the limit.


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## quagmire

Yoused said:


> I get that the charger is primarily a fat bridge circuit that you need to have in there ITFP for regen braking (I think I read of some car or cars that have supercaps to catch as much of that as possible, but they would still need the bridge from the A/C motor), but where is charge management? Do the battery packs themselves have logic to prevent overcharging?




In terms of preventing overcharging, are you talking specifically about preventing overcharging via regen braking? If so at least with Tesla, it will reduce regen braking all the way to no regen braking( need to use friction brakes) as the battery is fully charged.


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