Google’s Gemini 3 released

Cmaier

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Based on the performance over the past few days on some of the riskier chipmaker positions in my portfolio, I would agree that it looks like people are pulling back.
 
The current AI boom is starting to look less like a technological revolution and more like a desperate capital reallocation strategy.

We are watching a massive transfer of wealth where labor is being liquidated to fund GPU clusters. The "Mag 7" over-hired during the pandemic due to poor forecasting (the "retail is dead" fallacy). Now, facing bloated valuations and high interest rates, they need to cut costs.

The narrative that "AI is creating efficiency" is a very convenient cover for these layoffs. It allows executives to spin a failure of planning and over-hiring into a story of innovation. They tell clients AI is a harmless assistant, then tell their own staff that AI has made them redundant.

Meanwhile, the externalities - energy consumption and social disruption - are ignored. We are rushing into this with the same recklessness that broke social media, evidenced by the new anti-regulation PACs springing up.

If this AI spend doesn’t result in massive profitability soon (and the ROI is looking shaky), the market correction is going to be brutal.
 
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