The nuclear question

[Zoidberg]

Right, so I know it's grim and no one wants to think about it, but given the current events, I was considering some of the possible outcomes:

1. Putin gets deposed/dies
2. Russia's luck changes, they win quickly (whether via diplomacy or by force) and the Ukrainians accept the occupation
3. Putin realises that the Ukrainians will resist until the end, so he keeps escalating and in an attempt to crush their morale, eventually launches a nuclear missile against a Ukrainian city.

There are other possibilities, but I think those three are very likely.

So, if/when Russia nukes a Ukrainian city, what do you think the West should do...?

The crux of this question predicates on the assumption that Putin is willing to use nuclear weapons, and that he believes that the West doesn't. It also assumes –and this is very important– that he doesn't want to stop at Ukraine. It also assumes that there will be logical consequences to our response.

Edit: this is not about whether Putin would use nuclear weapons, but what to do in the event that he has done it.

 

[Edd]

If Putin resorts to a nuke to take Ukraine, it would show weakness, which he doesn't want to project.

 

[Zoidberg]

If Putin resorts to a nuke to take Ukraine, it would show weakness, which he doesn't want to project.

If anything, it would show strength. He has considerably escalated the use of artillery and cruise missiles over the course of the past week, and they keep making reference to nuclear weapons.

 

[Edd]

If anything, it would show strength. He has considerably escalated the use of artillery and cruise missiles over the course of the past week, and they keep making reference to nuclear weapons.

Agree to disagree on that one.

 

[User.45]

A) Retaliate: nuke Russia back to the stone age = Definitely do nuclear holocaust​

B) Retaliate: nuke a Russian city of similar importance = Definitely do nuclear holocaust​

C) Destroy every single known Russian missile silo, mobile launch system, nuclear submarine = Make nuclear holocaust certain​

D) Get fully involved in Ukraine, send troops, cruise missiles, but short of nuclear retaliation = Make Nuclear Holocaust Probable​

E) Keep providing Ukraine with conventional weapons = Keep Nuclear Holocaust likely​

F) Putin can have Ukraine, it' s not worth killing billions of people = Keep Nuclear Holocaust probable​

Great choices.

 

[Arkitect]

If Putin resorts to a nuke to take Ukraine, it would show weakness, which he doesn't want to project.

Rationally, fully compos mentis, I would agree with you.

However, the problem I have is I do not think Putin is behaving rationally. If he gets pissed off enough by Ukrainians holding him off and he thinks it will end the war fast and in his favour, he'll press that red button tout de suite. After all, wasn't that why the first Atom bombs were dropped? To end a war quickly and spare US lives? Why would Putin reason differently.

Right now Putin is a tight little ball of anger, fury, resentment and frustration. No telling what such a person can do.

I imagine he still believes the West are big on talk and no real action and so won't react. Listen to his messages. He is in full on goading mode and he will step over the mark.

Edit to add:
If he nukes Ukraine then we are at the point of no return and the best would be to nuke him — I guess, yes, tit for tat — but imagine a world where we then live in fear of where next he bombs? Let's get the whole thing over and done with. This world needs a hard reset. Of course I am a tad older, so YMMV. (Oh and Sun Mars conjunct… so yeah… )

 

[User.45]

It's a good idea to start this thread, BTW.

I do see the strategy here. If Putin starts losing big time, he'll just use the plants to turn Ukraine into a modern-day Carthage.

In the meantime he can just use the plants to threaten the West. I also think that probably causing these plants to malfunction requires much less loyalty testing than triggering nuclear warheads.

But as mentioned in the other thread. Using nukes for an EMP attack makes much more sense because that can win the war. It would probably also reduce our carbon footprint for decades - the silver lining.

 

[Zoidberg]

A) Retaliate: nuke Russia back to the stone age = Definitely do nuclear holocaust​

B) Retaliate: nuke a Russian city of similar importance = Definitely do nuclear holocaust​

C) Destroy every single known Russian missile silo, mobile launch system, nuclear submarine = Make nuclear holocaust certain​

D) Get fully involved in Ukraine, send troops, cruise missiles, but short of nuclear retaliation = Make Nuclear Holocaust Probable​

E) Keep providing Ukraine with conventional weapons = Keep Nuclear Holocaust likely​

F) Putin can have Ukraine, it' s not worth killing billions of people = Keep Nuclear Holocaust probable​

Great choices.

I never said they are great choices, but they are the choices that the West might have to make very soon.

 

[Zoidberg]

It's a good idea to start this thread, BTW.

I do see the strategy here. If Putin starts losing big time, he'll just use the plants to turn Ukraine into a modern-day Carthage.

In the meantime he can just use the plants to threaten the West. I also think that probably causing these plants to malfunction requires home much less of a loyalty testing than triggering nuclear warheads.

But as mentioned in the other thread. Using nukes for an EMP attack makes much more sense because that can win the war. It would probably also reduce our carbon footprint for decades - the silver lining.

I wasn't talking about the nuclear power plants (although that's what made me think of the possibility). Assuming they have modern fail-safes, another Chernobyl-scale catastrophe is unlikely. I was talking about regular nuclear weapons on a cruise or ballistic missile.

 

[SuperMatt]

Are the people “waiting in the wings” crazier than Putin? If not, I’d say assassination would be the answer.

 

[User.45]

I wasn't talking about the nuclear power plants (although that's what made me think of the possibility). Assuming they have modern fail-safes, another Chernobyl-scale catastrophe is unlikely. I was talking about regular nuclear weapons on a cruise or ballistic missile.

I know, but I'm telling you that at the current state of Putin's mind, the plants will be used to threaten and escalate if deemed necessary (by Putin).