Given how Russia’s military has performed thus far, I wouldn’t be surprised if number one was the case. Plus, it’s my understanding generally speaking any engagement decisions have to go up the chain for approval. I have heard on US destroyers, if you have a low flying missile incoming you have as little as 10-20 seconds to identify the missile and initiate an intercept.
If the Russians aren’t well trained in identifying such targets and hem and haw about if something on the radar is a threat and/or have to seek approval from someone higher up the chain, then the clock might be up by the time they get hit.
Great point about the electric warfare too. Reportedly two E-3A were also in the area as well as a Global Hawk drone that spent quite a bit of time surveilling the immediate area for quite some time. I’m not sure what the range is of jammers or if the Global Hawk has jamming capabilities but it seems like a possibility. I would think the Russians would know if they were getting jammed and possibly have alternative tracking methodologies such as IRST- though the utility of that can vary with weather. I’m not sure how their defensive missiles work either, but our SeaRAM missiles have radar, infrared, and electro-optical, RF detection sensors to get around potential counter measures.
I didn’t realize NATO had so much activity going on in the Black Sea. I suppose an issue for Russian ships in international waters, such as with the Moskova who was allegedly distracted by Ukrainian drones, they might be very cautious about engaging since it could belong to a non-Ukrainian military ie the US.
There is some debate as to whether the Makarov was hit, Russia has been denying the claims and a fake video was released. But there seems to be an awful lot activity going on in its surrounding airspace.
Ukraine reportedly did ”destroy” a Russian landing ship with a TB-2 drone with footage to back up the claims. I question if the ship is indeed destroyed, more likely heavily damaged which I suppose is just the same.
I’m not sure I understand why, particularly when it comes to open ocean, but Russia seems to be having a bit of difficulty reliably detecting and engaging these TB-2 drones. They’re not exactly small, not particularly stealthy, and have a large EM signature. At least on land they can fly low to avoid radar. Early on in the war I read because they travel so slow (70-120 knots) compared to more conventional military drones (ie Reaper, Global Hawk- 300-400mph) they were not being recognized as targets. But you’d think they’d learn their lesson by now.
