A bit more about the Chinese spy balloon

[Citysnaps]

A little more information is coming out. Apparently via two current and one former "officials."

I find this aspect most interesting:

"China was able to control the balloon so it could make multiple passes over some of the sites (at times flying figure-eight formations) and transmit the information it collected back to Beijing in real time, the three officials said."

If true, depending how it's done and how "real time" is defined, that's pretty sophisticated.

Chinese balloon got intel from U.S. military sites, despite efforts to block it

The intelligence China collected was mostly from electronic signals, which can be picked up from weapons systems or include communications from base personnel.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Nycturne]

I’d be more surprised if they didn’t have this capability.

 

[AG_PhamD]

I’m more curious about the other “objects” shot down- the one over Alaska, Lake Huron, and northern Canada. If you know you’re going to be shooting down an object- especially over land, presumably you’d have resources in place to track where the debris falls- radar, satellite imagery, aerial surveillance, etc.

I would think the military would have some idea of what they are shooting down before they pull the trigger. I suspect this is far less of a mystery than they make it out to be. So it’s either secret because it’s something serious (ie more Chinese balloons, Russia, an ally nation spying on us, our own balloon spying on Canada, martians, etc) or revealing that they spent hundreds of thousands to shoot down some amateur’s balloon might be too embarrassing politically. So either they probably have recovered the debris and then calling off the search is propaganda, or it was never worth really searching for. The Lake Huron object however probably would be be challenging to find.

FWIW we likely never would have heard about the Chinese balloon shot down over the east coast had it not been visible to civilians with pictures taken and spread around the internet. Otherwise the military probably would have done its thing and we would have been none the wiser.

 

[Citysnaps]

Though it is certainly possible, I’m still a little skeptical collected signals intelligence is real-time transmitted to China. Listening to NSC spokesman John Kirby during an interview yesterday on TV he said signals were *captured* in real time, which is an odd characterization (of course signals are captured real time - independent of whether they are instantly forwarded to China, or later read out of a memory and forwarded). He may have simply misspoke.

What’s interesting is that a balloon with radios/antennas/etc is even needed to begin with. That suggests their technology still has a long ways to go to meet their collection objectives. OTOH…if it works, well, that’s all that counts. It's a clever solution if their technology is lacking. Of course that assumes future balloons traversing over the US will not be shot down.

 

[Nycturne]

What’s interesting is that a balloon with radios/antennas/etc is even needed to begin with. That suggests their technology still has a long ways to go to meet their collection objectives. OTOH…if it works, well, that’s all that counts. It's a clever solution if their technology is lacking. Of course that assumes future balloons traversing over the US will not be shot down.

It depends a lot on the objectives. A balloon is a cheap way to get close enough for longer term on-site surveillance. Satellite coverage can only get you so much sigint, and is relatively easy to work around.

Generally this is more a case of it’s cheaper to operate this than something like the SR-71 or U2, and recent drone tech makes it easier to not have a nearby controller or need recovery like the SR-71’s drone allegedly required. Also still can loiter longer than our classic spy planes can.

I guess what I’m saying is: don’t mistake this for low-tech.

 

[Citysnaps]

It depends a lot on the objectives. A balloon is a cheap way to get close enough for longer term on-site surveillance. Satellite coverage can only get you so much sigint, and is relatively easy to work around.

Generally this is more a case of it’s cheaper to operate this than something like the SR-71 or U2, and recent drone tech makes it easier to not have a nearby controller or need recovery like the SR-71’s drone allegedly required. Also still can loiter longer than our classic spy planes can.

I guess what I’m saying is: don’t mistake this for low-tech.

Spy planes over the US similar to the SR71 and U2 are off the table. Far too easy to take out. And have been for decades.

As I said above, their spy balloon is a clever solution when you don't have the resources to engineer and build a satellite with the capability to detect low power signals of interest while parked in geosynchronous orbit south of the US - or via semi-synchronous orbit satellites. Of course their collection objectives can only be met when their balloons are not shot down.

They are getting there with half the solution, with the Chinese PLA a few years ago building and operating a secretive satellite ground station with a 35 meter diameter parabolic dish antenna in Argentina. It's pretty easy to see what that's about projecting a line of longitude from the base through the equator and seeing what's interesting in the northern hemisphere.

But...the Chinese government said that secretive satellite ground station with the 35 meter dish antenna in Argentina will only be used for peaceful space research purposes. Oh well...

 

[Eric]

A little more information is coming out. Apparently via two current and one former "officials."

I find this aspect most interesting:

"China was able to control the balloon so it could make multiple passes over some of the sites (at times flying figure-eight formations) and transmit the information it collected back to Beijing in real time, the three officials said."

If true, depending how it's done and how "real time" is defined, that's pretty sophisticated.

Chinese balloon got intel from U.S. military sites, despite efforts to block it

The intelligence China collected was mostly from electronic signals, which can be picked up from weapons systems or include communications from base personnel.

www.nbcnews.com

TBH I would've been surprised if this weren't the case, including real time transmission which is why I was surprised they let it go on as long as they did.

 

[Citysnaps]

TBH I would've been surprised if this weren't the case, including real time transmission which is why I was surprised they let it go on as long as they did.

I think the purpose of that was to analyze what the balloon was up to, regarding areas in the US of interest, and learning how US signals of interest were collected and apparently forwarded to a Chinese satellite.

Now that we know, I suspect future Chinese spy balloons will be shot down as soon as they enter US territorial waters.

There's still some ambiguity as to what "real time" means. It can mean anything from immediately relaying collected signals to a geosynchronous satellite and then back to China (essentially a bent pipe), to near real time with stored data sent to a non-geosynchronous satellite when it becomes in view of the balloon.

IMO, the US did the right thing getting that information.

 

[Nycturne]

Spy planes over the US similar to the SR71 and U2 are off the table. Far too easy to take out. And have been for decades.

As I said above, their spy balloon is a clever solution when you don't have the resources to engineer and build a satellite with the capability to detect low power signals of interest while parked in geosynchronous orbit south of the US - or via semi-synchronous orbit satellites. Of course their collection objectives can only be met when their balloons are not shot down.

It's a clever solution even if you do. Such a satellite is expensive, and pretty darn obvious if it has the capability to read the same sort of weaker signals, thanks that pesky inverse square law. So long as you can get away with it, this approach is a lot cheaper.

The next stage for this sort of sigint work is more likely to look more like the X-37B, IMO. Something that can operate with different payloads for extended durations at low orbits, but can be brought back for refurbishment or if there's a risk that another nation might try to capture or shoot it down.

They are getting there with half the solution, with the Chinese PLA a few years ago building and operating a secretive satellite ground station with a 35 meter diameter parabolic dish antenna in Argentina. It's pretty easy to see what that's about projecting a line of longitude from the base through the equator and seeing what's interesting in the northern hemisphere.

But...the Chinese government said that secretive satellite ground station with the 35 meter dish antenna in Argentina will only be used for peaceful space research purposes. Oh well...

Are you talking about this station? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Espacio_Lejano_Station

To be honest, it seems like a little bit of scare-mongering. For this type of sigint, you are still having to bounce off something that has line of sight, so a dedicated communication satellite network in geosynchronous orbit like China already has can do this job and bring details back to the mainland rather than use a secondary reception site. Coverage for deep space missions can't use the comms satellites as relays like a spy plane/balloon/drone can, hence the need for these sort of dishes like NASA also uses.

Is China using this dish for sigint? Maybe, but they are going to want sites like these as they start doing their own interplanetary probe missions.

 

[Citysnaps]

It's a clever solution even if you do.

I'm not sure what that means. As I've said from the beginning in other posts that it's clever and low cost. But has serious drawbacks; being able to be shot down at will is just one of them.

Such a satellite is expensive, and pretty darn obvious if it has the capability to read the same sort of weaker signals, thanks that pesky inverse square law. So long as you can get away with it, this approach is a lot cheaper.

And that's exactly my point. China will no longer be able to get away with a balloon and collection payload for sigint purposes now that the US knows what it's about. Cross over US territorial waters and it will be shot down. Cheaper doesn't help.

Other countries have had far better collection capabilities for decades without the need to have a balloon collection platform intermediary.

Are you talking about this station?

Yep.

Is China using this dish for sigint?

No doubt, absolutely. Or may in the near future when China transitions from balloon collection to satellite collection. Take a globe of the world and draw a line of longitude from the Chinese ground station in Argentina up past the equator and into the northern hemisphere. See any areas the Chinese might be interested in snooping on?