Weather

[Renzatic]

So keep yer potentially white Christmas where it belongs, we already got enough to fix Canada's wagon if we could just do what y'all plan on doing and ship it north!

The high's only gonna be 58 this Monday! By next weekend, the lows are gonna be dropping down below freezing!

That's terrible, Liz. TERRIBLE! It's like February weather...IN DECEMBER! I'm gonna have to wear a sweater AND a jacket!

 

[lizkat]

^^^I don't care. It was 4ºF when I got up this morning. Stayed in bed as long as I could bc didn't wanna know. Under the layers of bedding upstairs it must have been at least 98.6 degrees.

 

[Renzatic]

If it makes you feel better, it was chilly enough last night to force me to break out my wool blanket.

 

[Alli]

The high's only gonna be 58 this Monday! By next weekend, the lows are gonna be dropping down below freezing!

That's terrible, Liz. TERRIBLE! It's like February weather...IN DECEMBER! I'm gonna have to wear a sweater AND a jacket!

I totally empathize! I finally had to close the window AND turn off the fan. And it’s only December!

 

[Renzatic]

I totally empathize! I finally had to close the window AND turn off the fan. And it’s only December!

It's getting so bad, I might even have to plug in the space heater.

Hell, we might as well be living in Antarctica the way things are going.

 

[Alli]

It's getting so bad, I might even have to plug in the space heater.

Hell, we might as well be living in Antarctica the way things are going.

It hasn’t gotten that bad here yet, although I did turn on the heat and put on a robe.

 

[lizkat]

Well this was gonna happen after all the snowfall in PA and NY states.... rain... and then flooding, for Christmas Eve and Day. Ugh.

259 PM EST Tue Dec 22 2020​

​

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY​

MORNING...​

​

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a​

​

* Flood Watch for portions of central New York and northeast​

Pennsylvania, including the following areas, in central New York,​

Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Otsego, Schuyler,​

Steuben, Sullivan, Tioga and Tompkins. In northeast Pennsylvania,​

Bradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Northern Wayne, Pike, Southern​

Wayne, Susquehanna and Wyoming.​

​

* From Thursday afternoon through Friday morning​

​

* Heavy rain will move into the area Thursday and continue through​

Thursday night. The rain will fall on a deep snowpack leading to​

snow melt. This snow melt combined with 1 to 3 inches of rainfall​

could cause urban and flash flooding. Flows in rivers may increase​

quickly and rise above flood stage.​

 

[lizkat]

It hasn’t gotten that bad here yet, although I did turn on the heat and put on a robe.

In the local paper here this morning, they said it's supposed to be warmer in upstate NY (low 50s) tomorrow than down in Florida. Weird. And they're still forecasting 2-3" inches rain then ( Xmas Eve) then a flash freeze on Christmas night. Shades of 1996 when we lost our maple trees to the crunch between flood and ice skating rink. Looks like might need to set up the sponge pump in the cellar as a precaution. Always fun trying to get the cellar door open with 2 feet of snow and ice on it. Easier to shovel that thing off today while it's still just snow.

I knew there was some reason I indulged in this coffee mug a couple years ago:

 

[Alli]

When I opened Facebook this morning it showed me a memory from two years ago with the overnight low on Halloween of 38, and the temp on Christmas Day of 75. Alabama. Go figure. The weather is as absurd as our politicians.

On the bright side, today is marvelously sunny and very mild.

 

[lizkat]

File under "Sometimes does not pay to get up too early"... We are in for 2 days of seriously dicey weather. From the 6:45am update provided in the National Weather Service regional forecast disscussion:

​

Just adding an extra word to stress, that this is no ordinary Flood Watch; flooding is not just possible but indeed expected, and it will likely be quite significant for much of the area - both the initial flash flood/small stream phase late today into tonight, and the main stem river phase late tonight through Friday. Some of the signals that we look for in the models for flood potential, such as mean integrated water vapor transport, precipitable water, and southerly component of 850 mb winds are either off-the-charts or nearly so for this time of year.

This is a rare set up. This would be a problem even in the absence of snow cover, but unfortunately was also have plenty of water that will be released from deep snowpack in the warm moist and windy conditions later today through tonight - especially the Susquehanna and Upper Delaware basins. Anyone living in a flood- prone area should have a plan and know what to do in the event high water threatens. High impact storm system is now encroaching the region, and unfortunately this will be a rather memorable one. The main reasons for the confidence in significant flooding are as follows. The amount of anticipated rainfall; a widespread 1.5 to 2.5 inches with higher terrain reaching 3 to 4 inches. Also, dewpoints that surge to mid 40s- lower 50s with stiff south- southeasterly winds, which will cause quick melting of the snowpack that exists for a large chunk of the area.

The timing of heaviest rainfall appears likely to coincide with the rapid running off of snowmelt. Finally, a strong wave of low pressure forms along the front, hanging up its progress while prolonging the window of both melting and the moderate to heavy rainfall.

Gee, I have never seen a four-inch rainfall here. Past that my brain refuses to venture at the moment.

So it sounds like the weather gods are going to be extra mean to Santa Claus making his way through downpours, slush and even rushing water. Right around here people do know not to drive into what looks like a puddle on a road in flood season, thanks to some notorious deaths in past years from cars diving into 50-foot-deep washouts filled with a creek gone out of banks.

Welp... by end of month the gas delivery guy might actually be able to locate the tanks. Meanwhile there's no way I can even get out there to check the gauges thanks to snowdrifts. Next question is how long the deep freeze will last that is supposed to complicate the flooding problems by dropping in here at the weekend after all that rain.

The weather gods seem to have no sense of humor left in 2020. Can hardly blame them but still, why take it out on humans?

 

[DT]

Just ran down to the liquor store, top down, t-shirt and shorts


Freeze Watch? Pfft, I'll watch it NOT freeze

 

[lizkat]

View attachment 2061


Just ran down to the liquor store, top down, t-shirt and shorts


Freeze Watch? Pfft, I'll watch it NOT freeze

Hah, I think you guys will end up though with colder weather tonight than we have way way north of ya. Weird!

 

[DT]

Hah, I think you guys will end up though with colder weather tonight than we have way way north of ya. Weird!

I know, right? The weather swings down here are insane. The high/low the other day from 72°/36°, exactly double/half ...

 

[lizkat]

I know, right? The weather swings down here are insane. The high/low the other day from 72°/36°, exactly double/half ...

Our high today will be 54 but the low tonight (during all the rain, ugh) will only be 47. Gonna be hell to pay with the dissolution of a 41" snowpack. It's already happening....

 

[lizkat]

Xmas recipe for upstate NY: take 41" snow, add 2.5 to 4" rain at 50ºF, stir with SE winds, behold biblical flooding.

 

[Alli]

Xmas recipe for upstate NY: take 41" snow, add 2.5 to 4" rain at 50ºF, stir with SE winds, behold biblical flooding.

Nope. Don’t miss that at all.

 

[lizkat]

Nope. Don’t miss that at all.

We do have some leftover warm breezes, if the weather gods would just locate that 90º-rotate button.

 

[lizkat]

When we have 5" fresh snow on the roads at 930am, but the forecast says to expect one inch "mainly after 5pm" should I be as surprised as the road crews must have been today? They came by around half past noon and again just now. The second pass was presumably because another couple inches have fallen and we're still to expect "another inch" before 11pm. Guess the road crews have figured out the new measurement of one inch and are acting accordingly.

By time we're done we'll have a foot of festive decoration on the ground if this keeps up. I am reminded of when one of my younger siblings asked me as a seven-year-old (while detailed to shoveling out the driveway one afternoon) "So this came down just since breakfast, right... and so... but it can't snow at night, right?"

 

[Thomas Veil]

After the horrifying events of the past week, we are experiencing two days of sunshine and clear blue skies. It may still be cold, but it’s like the calm after the storm.

 

[lizkat]

Now contemplating the fallout (literally) from a forecast of "highly elevation-dependent" precipitation for the next few days.

From scouting around the area it would appear what that means is that at 2K' above sea level here, we're gonna get three inches of snowfall but 10 miles east of that where the hills top out at 3K' maybe five or six inches. "Well it's January after all."