California recall election now has 70 people on the ballot

Eric said:
Basically, it appears that if Newsom is voted out, the next highest on the ballot will win and that's some looney bin right wing talk show host. Democrats were not wise to at least put one of their own on the ballot.
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If he gets the most votes he wins?
 
Huntn said:
If he gets the most votes he wins?
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Yep. This system makes it weirdly easy for California to have a Republican governor every now and then. Of course, last time this happened, it was the moderate Arnold Schwarzenegger. This time we're probably going to have our own Trump for a while.
 
TBL said:
Yep. This system makes it weirdly easy for California to have a Republican governor every now and then. Of course, last time this happened, it was the moderate Arnold Schwarzenegger. This time we're probably going to have our own Trump for a while.
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With a huge number of Republican names on the ballot, and the California Republican Party does not endorse anyone, I see it as the GOP splitting their vote and Neeson with the easy win.
 
Look, I understand both what @SuperMatt and @Eric are saying about this issue of shoplifting. There is a common narrative out there that crops up with this issue every time, namely that the solution (indeed the solution to all crime-related issues) is more police and more punishment. As someone pointed out on a recent podcast episode, the U.S. has more police and more people in prison per capita than any other developed nation, so by that logic we should be the safest nation in the world, right? But that's not the reality.

As is typical of my attempt to be middle-of-the-road, I do think that these shoplifters need to be arrested, but I don't think the reason we're seeing more of this is because we're "soft on crime" (at least not the only reason). I think we are seeing more of this because of the immense inequality in a place like of the SF or the Bay Area that just gets worse and worse (and the pandemic of course exacerbating it exponentially). No part of the country better illustrates the wealth gap in America better than the Bay Area. No city illustrates it better than SF where you have a row of homeless tents a block away from tech billionaires' apartments. Yes, arrest these people, but understand that you'll be seeing more and more of this type of crime if you don't go after the root causes. And I am always going to skeptical of the narrative that doesn't go much further than a call for more police and more incarceration.
 
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TBL said:
Yep. This system makes it weirdly easy for California to have a Republican governor every now and then. Of course, last time this happened, it was the moderate Arnold Schwarzenegger. This time we're probably going to have our own Trump for a while.
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Good chance this can happen and Democrats could've at least improved their odds by adding one of their own to the ticket and chose not to, it doesn't make much sense either because it was low risk. Removing Newsom is its own separate vote, the replacement is another.

Right now is the worst case scenario for Newsom though, fires and COVID raging out of control. It was enough to unseat Trump, it could very well happen here too.
 
TBL said:
Look, I understand both what @SuperMatt and @Eric are saying about this issue of shoplifting. There is a common narrative out there that crops up with this issue every time, namely that the solution (indeed the solution to all crime-related issues) is more police and more punishment. As someone pointed out on a recent podcast episode, the U.S. has more police and more people in prison per capita than any other developed nation, so by that logic we should be the safest nation in the world, right? But that's not the reality.

As is typical of my attempt to be middle-of-the-road, I do think that these shoplifters need to be arrested, but I don't think the reason we're seeing more of this is because we're "soft on crime" (at least not the only reason). I think we are seeing more of this because of the immense inequality in a place like of the SF or the Bay Area that just gets worse and worse (and the pandemic of course exacerbating it exponentially). No part of the country better illustrates the wealth gap in America better than the Bay Area. No city illustrates it better than SF where you have a row of homeless tents a block away from tech billionaires' apartments. Yes, arrest these people, but understand that you'll be seeing more and more of this type of crime if you don't go after the root causes.
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Yep, nothing like watching it happen first hand and being told you're wrong from people who don't even live in your area.

We are talking about two very different things here. We have a huge homeless problem as has been mentioned. By and large most of these people are either drug addicts or mentally ill, any of us who work in the city know this, it's not just because they're poor. It speaks to a larger problem if lack of proper resources to treat and help these people and is quite sad in its own right.

Then you have opportunists and this is largely due to both police having their hands tied and the sheer volume of cases. Again, my wife had to watch it first hand on a daily basis. A lot of these people steal the higher priced items (loading their carts with it), take it out to their nice cars, then go back to their homes or apartments and hock them online. I don't care if one is for or against Target or Walgreens as corporations, it's wrong that it should not be allowed to the extent it is.
 
Yes, but the homelessness issue also speaks to a lack of affordable housing and the astronomical cost of living in the Bay Area. I'm not exactly disagreeing with you, I think there is a passivity and laxity in policing thievery like this but I'm just saying that I'm skeptical when we're not talking about all the reasons why this is happening and only skimming the surface with the usual carceral, punitive solution which to me is just a band-aid.

We also have the elephant in the room issue that many of these thieves (particularly the ones who participate in "swarming" where they enter a store in a large group and steal everything they can) are black and there is a hesitancy to talk about the crime of the black community candidly. (The same thing applies to the people punching Asians in the street, many of whom were black).
 
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TBL said:
Yes, but the homelessness issue also speaks to a lack of affordable housing and the astronomical cost of living in the Bay Area. I'm not exactly disagreeing with you, I'm just saying that I'm skeptical when we're not talking about all the reasons why this is happening.
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No question about it, how can one go from living on the streets to paying a median rental price of $3000 a month? I think an increase in social services is needed, a lot of the shelters require no drug or alcohol use so they're largely not used unfortunately. It's a balancing act but the more we can do to slow that, the easier it will be to get a handle on it.

However, if you look at any large city this is a problem, Portland and Seattle also have huge populations living on the streets.

TBL said:
We also have the elephant in the room issue that many of these thieves (particularly the ones who participate in "swarming" where they enter a store in a large group and steal everything they can) are black and there is a hesitancy to talk about the crime of the black community candidly.
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Yes, it's hard to overlook. The same for attacks on Asians in SF and Oakland.
 
SuperMatt said:
Why is this happening in SF specifically? The misdemeanor limit of $950 for shoplifting doesn’t seem to be the cause, as these widely-circulated videos show people stealing much more than that.
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How do you know that for certain? Did you add it all up? *

For me it looks like they grabbed a few handbags and some clothes. So to my eye, it doesn't look over $950.


* Just busting your chops here a bit. But just so you know, this is what I had to put up with over at MR. People questioning every little detail just to be an ___.
 
TBL said:
We also have the elephant in the room issue that many of these thieves (particularly the ones who participate in "swarming" where they enter a store in a large group and steal everything they can) are black and there is a hesitancy to talk about the crime of the black community candidly. (The same thing applies to the people punching Asians in the street, many of whom were black).
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We can't talk about that. Well, we can here, but the media won't. At least not in the same level as it is happening.

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The bigger issue I see is when these store close down, where are the poor people going to shop? The wealthy will simply have someone else do their shopping for them in nicer areas. The poor will be SOL.
 
Herdfan said:
How do you know that for certain? Did you add it all up? *

For me it looks like they grabbed a few handbags and some clothes. So to my eye, it doesn't look over $950.


* Just busting your chops here a bit. But just so you know, this is what I had to put up with over at MR. People questioning every little detail just to be an ___.
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The people were stealing handbags from Neiman Marcus. Here is their website showing their handbags:

Women's Designer Handbags | Neiman Marcus

Get free shipping & returns on designer handbags at Neiman Marcus. Shop trendy leather, top handle handbags & more.
www.neimanmarcus.com
 
Herdfan said:
Holy crap! Why? I thought the MK I bought my daughter was overpriced.
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Having a Neiman Marcus not far from a homeless encampment encapsulates the San Fran problem pretty well, I think. In DC there are people living in tents in parks a few blocks from high-end retail as well.
 
SuperMatt said:
Having a Neiman Marcus not far from a homeless encampment encapsulates the San Fran problem pretty well, I think. In DC there are people living in tents in parks a few blocks from high-end retail as well.
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This was a planned and coordinated flashmob theft, they had getaway cars waiting for them.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1412291979048718337/

Have you ever actually seen the homeless in San Francisco? Sorry man but you could not be more wrong in this assumption.
 
SuperMatt said:
Having a Neiman Marcus not far from a homeless encampment encapsulates the San Fran problem pretty well, I think.
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Eric said:
This was a planned and coordinated flashmob theft, they had getaway cars waiting for them.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1412291979048718337/

Have you ever actually seen the homeless in San Francisco? Sorry man but you could not be more wrong in this assumption.
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I wasn’t saying that homeless people committed the crime. I was just commenting on the mix of high-end retail and homeless in close proximity... similar to DC. It highlights the wealth inequality.
 
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SuperMatt said:
I wasn’t saying that homeless people committed the crime. I was just commenting on the mix of high-end retail and homeless in close proximity... similar to DC. It highlights the wealth inequality.
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Sadly, most businesses in SF are relatively close to homeless people I'll give you that.
 
Huntn said:
With a huge number of Republican names on the ballot, and the California Republican Party does not endorse anyone, I see it as the GOP splitting their vote and Neeson with the easy win.
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Maybe not so easy.

www.wsj.com

Opinion | Could a Conservative Replace Gavin Newsom?

A quixotic effort to recall California’s governor is suddenly gaining steam. And libertarian radio host Larry Elder is the front-runner.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com


Eric said:
Good chance this can happen and Democrats could've at least improved their odds by adding one of their own to the ticket and chose not to, it doesn't make much sense either because it was low risk. Removing Newsom is its own separate vote, the replacement is another.
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I'm torn on this idea. I understand that the CA Dems didn't want to add any legitimacy to the recall, instead trying to frame it as some extreme right-wing stunt. But as you noted, this also means that if he is recalled, there is no backstop. Sure there are some D's on the ballot, but none like with the Davis recall where the sitting Lt. Governor jumps in. He said he did it to save the election. The linked article says something different. But that was an odd time. Davis was hated and Arnold had a name. A huge name.


https://www.kqed.org/news/11870960/...in-the-newsom-recall-we-asked-cruz-bustamante


We have a month and polls are going south for Newsom. I know I would not want to be in CA right now. The ads must be overwhelming.
 
It's not looking good for Newsom, it's hard to believe Democrats in such a blue state are so willing to hand it over to a nutjob Trump Conservative but it's looking there's a good chance that it will happen.

Shock poll shows Gavin Newsom losing recall vote by double digits

The poll's other shocking finding is a new leader on Newsom's replacement.
www.sfgate.com www.sfgate.com
 
Eric said:
It's not looking good for Newsom, it's hard to believe Democrats in such a blue state are so willing to hand it over to a nutjob Trump Conservative but it's looking there's a good chance that it will happen.

Shock poll shows Gavin Newsom losing recall vote by double digits

The poll's other shocking finding is a new leader on Newsom's replacement.
www.sfgate.com www.sfgate.com
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The CA recall system is stupid. With so many people on the ballot, Newsom could get 49.9% of the vote, and lose his seat to somebody with 10% of the vote. Democracy? I think not.
 
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