How can there not be a COVID-19 thread?

Huntn said:
Are the current vaccines effective against this variant?

Isn’t it interesting how before COVID we seemed to be in a state of relative virus stability, and now it seems like this situation, just won’t go away. How long before the next new bug assaults the species? :oops:
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It sounds like they're not sure at this point because the variants appear to be all over the map, hopefully we'll know more in a couple of more weeks but it sounds alarming.

I think as long as we have such a large portion of the population unwilling to vaccinate that this problem won't go away, all it does is allow the virus to mutate and spread when we don't contain it in its current state. Wish more people would listen to the science.
 
Huntn said:
Are the current vaccines effective against this variant?

Isn’t it interesting how before COVID we seemed to be in a state of relative virus stability, and now it seems like this situation, just won’t go away. How long before the next new bug assaults the species? :oops:
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Two things to keep in mind:

1) Humanity’s ability to track virus strains like this is relatively recent. So we’re able to see a novel virus adapting to a new host in real time across a global human population for the first time.
2) This isn’t the first time these sort of adaptive mutatations happened in the context of a global pandemic.

An example is that the 1918 pandemic‘s lethality during the second wave was likely enabled by mutations after the first wave. It wasn’t like Influenza was a new disease at that point. We just got introduced to a strain that hadn’t circulated widely in humans which happened to have a couple really nasty adaptations already, and then picked up a couple more as it spread among humans.

That 1918 pandemic took two years to subside. Many influenza pandemics do, like the 1956-1958 influenza pandemic that killed 2 million. The HIV pandemic itself is considered to run from 2005-2012, and has killed 35 million, despite being a virus we knew about (and basically failed to act on) in the 80s. So this pandemic isn’t even an outlier, to be honest. For it being a novel virus that only recently jumped to humans, especially.

Eric said:
It sounds like they're not sure at this point because the variants appear to be all over the map, hopefully we'll know more in a couple of more weeks but it sounds alarming.

I think as long as we have such a large portion of the population unwilling to vaccinate that this problem won't go away, all it does is allow the virus to mutate and spread when we don't contain it in its current state. Wish more people would listen to the science.
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Exactly. While we can see a new strain popping up, and that it is out competing the old strain, we don’t yet know what that means in the long run: How much more contagious is it? How serious is the infection itself with these changes? How effectively does it bypass current vaccine protections?

So far, we’ve been lucky in that it’s mostly been more contagious, with minor capacity to bypass the existing vaccine. But the concern is that there’s no reason to believe it will hold true for every random mutation the virus could undergo. And a truly novel virus in a population that can’t defend against it all that well means a lot of opportunities to mutate.

Yeah, a good vaccination drive was our first real opening at shutting this down quickly, and bringing it under control such that it could be managed like Influenza currently is. Unfortunately, we botched that up, so we’re having to “go the long way around” to that sort of management. Wouldn’t be the first time, either.
 
Runs For Fun said:
Holy shit that graph. 😮
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A few things to keep in mind about the omicron variant:
  1. Early data are always noisy, and it will take a lot of testing and sequencing to determine if omicron is transmitted more readily. It's also challenging to control for many other variables, including vaccination type and status (if any), age, living conditions, and so on.
  2. As with the original strain and other variants, the fact that omicron has been seen in a few other countries almost certainly means that it is already in the U.S. and elsewhere. Travel bans will do little to mitigate spread in the long run.
  3. Determining whether omicron can evade immunity conferred by prior infection or vaccination will take time, though we should have some idea in the next few weeks.
  4. Vaccine manufacturers like Pfizer/BioNTech are already working on this by doing clinical trials of other variants (alpha and delta). They claim they can release a vaccine more closely tailored to omicron in 100 days. Regulatory approval will also come into play.
  5. If anything, the need for full administration of existing vaccines, even if they are less effective against omicron, is greater than before. So, too, is the importance for measures like masking and other NPIs.
  6. This further bolsters the argument that COVID-19 is a worldwide problem that will only be effectively addressed by making vaccines available at low cost everywhere. It's not something the first world can isolate itself from. The world should treat this as a problem that transcends geographic and political boundaries, but the experience with other global issues like climate change isn't comforting in this regard.
 
The CDC said they think we should wait for more information before banning flights, this is one time I disagree with them, by the time they say “oh shit this is bad” it’ll be everywhere, glad Biden is acting immediately on this. Best case, we overreacted and people couldn't travel for a month or two, worst case, we have an untreatable variant taking us back to square one.
 
Eric said:
The CDC said they think we should wait for more information before banning flights, this is one time I disagree with them, by the time they say “oh shit this is bad” it’ll be everywhere, glad Biden is acting immediately on this. Best case, we overreacted and people couldn't travel for a month or two, worst case, we have an untreatable variant taking us back to square one.
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I assume we will fail to keep it out but slowing it down seems worth a try.
 
Roller said:
A few things to keep in mind about the omicron variant:
  1. Early data are always noisy, and it will take a lot of testing and sequencing to determine if omicron is transmitted more readily. It's also challenging to control for many other variables, including vaccination type and status (if any), age, living conditions, and so on.
  2. As with the original strain and other variants, the fact that omicron has been seen in a few other countries almost certainly means that it is already in the U.S. and elsewhere. Travel bans will do little to mitigate spread in the long run.
  3. Determining whether omicron can evade immunity conferred by prior infection or vaccination will take time, though we should have some idea in the next few weeks.
  4. Vaccine manufacturers like Pfizer/BioNTech are already working on this by doing clinical trials of other variants (alpha and delta). They claim they can release a vaccine more closely tailored to omicron in 100 days. Regulatory approval will also come into play.
  5. If anything, the need for full administration of existing vaccines, even if they are less effective against omicron, is greater than before. So, too, is the importance for measures like masking and other NPIs.
  6. This further bolsters the argument that COVID-19 is a worldwide problem that will only be effectively addressed by making vaccines available at low cost everywhere. It's not something the first world can isolate itself from. The world should treat this as a problem that transcends geographic and political boundaries, but the experience with other global issues like climate change isn't comforting in this regard.
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This 100%. Saved me a post, thank you! It took about 4-5 months to get high-quality data on Delta so expect nothing different for other new variants. Sometimes it's just better to wait for the data to mature.
 
I agree -- they have given up their "right" to have a lung transplant (and in addition, in my opinion, any treatment in the ICU as well) by refusing to be vaccinated.
 
Roller said:
6. This further bolsters the argument that COVID-19 is a worldwide problem that will only be effectively addressed by making vaccines available at low cost everywhere. It's not something the first world can isolate itself from. The world should treat this as a problem that transcends geographic and political boundaries, but the experience with other global issues like climate change isn't comforting in this regard.
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The Omicron variant is probably already in the United States. Just hasn't been properly diagnosed yet. Same as the Delta variant in its earlier stages.

www.nytimes.com

As Omicron Variant Circles the Globe, African Nations Face Blame and Bans (Published 2021)

With countries trying to close their doors to the new coronavirus variant, southern African officials note that the West’s hoarding of vaccines helped create their struggle in the first place.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

The cascade of travel closures triggered a wave of resentment among Africans who believed that the continent was yet again bearing the brunt of panicked policies from Western countries, which had failed to deliver vaccines and the resources needed to administer them.

Richer countries, having already hoarded vaccines for much of 2021, were now penalizing parts of the world that they had starved of shots in the first place, scientists said.

“Told you so,” said Francois Venter, a researcher at University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, referring to warnings from African researchers that delaying vaccinations there risked the emergence of new variants. “It feels like these rich countries have learned absolutely nothing in terms of support.”
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JagRunner said:
They shouldn’t get one.
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Clix Pix said:
I agree -- they have given up their "right" to have a lung transplant (and in addition, in my opinion, any treatment in the ICU as well) by refusing to be vaccinated.
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Luckily, medical ethics aren't that black-and-white. Someone becoming a candidate for a lung transplant AFTER getting COVID they weren't vaccinated for is NOT an absolute contraindication to transplant and it should not be. Should they be prioritized lower if there's a comparabe need by compliant patients? Probably yes.
 
ronntaylor said:
The Omicron variant is probably already in the United States. Just hasn't been properly diagnosed yet. Same as the Delta variant in its earlier stages.

www.nytimes.com

As Omicron Variant Circles the Globe, African Nations Face Blame and Bans (Published 2021)

With countries trying to close their doors to the new coronavirus variant, southern African officials note that the West’s hoarding of vaccines helped create their struggle in the first place.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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African countries have been asking permission to manufacture the vaccines in their own countries. But pharmaceutical companies want to protect their profits. Things are changing though. I can see why people in poor countries are angry about Americans getting boosters before they get their first shot. But producing vaccines worldwide instead of shipping them makes more sense in the long run.

www.wsls.com

Africa tries to end vaccine inequity by replicating its own

A team of young scientists in South Africa is assembling the equipment needed to reverse engineer Moderna's coronavirus vaccine.
www.wsls.com www.wsls.com
 
P_X said:
Luckily, medical ethics aren't that black-and-white. Someone becoming a candidate for a lung transplant AFTER getting COVID they weren't vaccinated for is NOT an absolute contraindication to transplant and it should not be. Should they be prioritized lower if there's a comparabe need by compliant patients? Probably yes.
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IMHO someone who is, say, a heavy smoker who also has refused any vaccination against COVID-19 should be removed from the list of potential candidates for lung transplant. I'll concede that anyone who isn't a smoker, yet who caught COVID and had not been vaccinated should be at the bottom of the list of candidates if there are patients on there who have been vaccinated and who have various other medical conditions where transplant would be beneficial and truly life-restoring.
 
Clix Pix said:
IMHO someone who is, say, a heavy smoker who also has refused any vaccination against COVID-19 should be removed from the list of potential candidates for lung transplant. I'll concede that anyone who isn't a smoker, yet who caught COVID and had not been vaccinated should be at the bottom of the list of candidates if there are patients on there who have been vaccinated and who have various other medical conditions where transplant would be beneficial and truly life-restoring.
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Assessment for transplant suitability includes the patient's willingness/ability/track record in complying with medication and other protocols, as well as the likelihood of success given the shortage of available organs. So vaccine refusal could certainly factor into the decision, but wouldn't be the only determinant.
 
Pumbaa said:
Any good source for this?
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I think it was the original Dr. who discovered the mutation who said it was much milder symptoms.

P_X said:
Yes, the pandemic will eventually end/subside once everyone is exposed to the virus one way or another. It's just 10x better to get exposed artificially through vaccines.
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I am thinking you mean it is 10x better to be exposed artificially (vaccinated) and not that the vaccine is 10x better. Please clarify if I am wrong.

But this leads to a second question of why here in the US we do not seem to be treating recovery from it and being vaccinated equally. In the article I posted a week or so ago about the "Cure" from the German paper where cure was poorly translated from recovered. And now Switzerland is coming up with a COVID Certificate where you need to be either vaccinated, recovered or proof of negative test.

So it seems Europe is treating recovered equally with vaccinated, and your post seems to equate the same thing. Why is this not the case in the US. I know many of you hate Rand Paul, but this is one of his main criticisms of Fauci in that he is not treating recovered equally with vaccinated.

Any idea why we here in the US seem to be treating it differently?
 
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