Let’s say they do this. If they follow the rough pattern set out by the M3 -> M3 Pro -> M3 Max, then the M3 Ultra might look something like this:
24 CPU cores (20 P-cores)
72-80 GPU cores
as the ratio of CPU/GPU cores for each die is 1.5x CPU cores (maintaining 4 E cores) and on average 2x GPU cores (1.8/2.2x).
This is similar to
@Yoused ’s predictions in
@Altaic ’s thread that something appears to be different about M3.
However
@Cmaier ’s caution that such a die would be
very large still applies.
Even if the reticle size is big enough, that’s an expensive chip.
Edit: we don’t know exact mm because there are no 3rd party die shots yet, but for reference, an M3 Max manufactured on N3 at 92 billion transistors has more transistors than a full Hopper GPU at 80 billion transistors on N4. Hopper has a die size of 814mm^2. The reticle limit for EUV is roughly 858 mm^2. While N3 came with density improvements for logic, some things like cache don’t scale that well. So an M3 Max is already massive. I’m not saying a monolithic M3 Ultra is impossible, but it would be a very,
very big boy … and oh so close to that limit if it can be done at all.
Edit2: I tracked down an estimate (and it was only an estimate) that an M2 Max on N5P was 550mm^2. It had 67 billion transistors. So an M3 Max has 37% more transistors. For the M3 Ultra to fit in the reticle limit an M3 Max would probably have to be a smaller die than an M2 Max. The theoretical best shrink for pure logic from N5P to N3B is 60-70%. SRAM and I/O, each of which Apple has a lot, won’t shrink like that. Eoof. Maybe doable but tough and expensive.
Someone estimated that it costs Nvidia $3300+ (not all of that is the die but still) to make an H100 which they sell for $30,000+. Even if it’s possible to make, I’m not sure a monolithic M3 Ultra is practical as much as I would like it to happen. I dunno, definitely not ruling it out, but don’t expect price cuts. If these estimates are right, it would roughly cost Apple as much to make a monolithic M3 Ultra SOC as they currently sell a Mac Studio Ultra for …
opendata.blender.org
