If they have done this, then the characteristics of the M3 Ultra could be a different proportion altogether.
Let’s say they do this. If they follow the rough pattern set out by the M3 -> M3 Pro -> M3 Max, then the M3 Ultra might look something like this:
24 CPU cores (20 P-cores)
72-80 GPU cores
as the ratio of CPU/GPU cores for each die is 1.5x CPU cores (maintaining 4 E cores) and on average 2x GPU cores (1.8/2.2x).
This is similar to
@Yoused ’s predictions in
@Altaic ’s thread that something appears to be different about M3.
Given that Max is no longer an extended Pro, the Ultra (or whatever) might turn out to be something other than a linked pair of Maxes. It might serve them better to go with 24 (20P 4E) cores instead of 32.
However
@Cmaier ’s caution that such a die would be
very large still applies.
Not sure if they could make an M3 Ultra that matches M2 Ultra without using an interposed - the reticle size may be too small to allow a die big enough.
Even if the reticle size is big enough, that’s an expensive chip.
Edit: we don’t know exact mm because there are no 3rd party die shots yet, but for reference, an M3 Max manufactured on N3 at 92 billion transistors has more transistors than a full Hopper GPU at 80 billion transistors on N4. Hopper has a die size of 814mm^2. The reticle limit for EUV is roughly 858 mm^2. While N3 came with density improvements for logic, some things like cache don’t scale that well. So an M3 Max is already massive. I’m not saying a monolithic M3 Ultra is impossible, but it would be a very,
very big boy … and oh so close to that limit if it can be done at all.
Edit2: I tracked down an estimate (and it was only an estimate) that an M2 Max on N5P was 550mm^2. It had 67 billion transistors. So an M3 Max has 37% more transistors. For the M3 Ultra to fit in the reticle limit an M3 Max would probably have to be a smaller die than an M2 Max. The theoretical best shrink for pure logic from N5P to N3B is 60-70%. SRAM and I/O, each of which Apple has a lot, won’t shrink like that. Eoof. Maybe doable but tough and expensive.
Someone estimated that it costs Nvidia $3300+ (not all of that is the die but still) to make an H100 which they sell for $30,000+. Even if it’s possible to make, I’m not sure a monolithic M3 Ultra is practical as much as I would like it to happen. I dunno, definitely not ruling it out, but don’t expect price cuts. If these estimates are right, it would roughly cost Apple as much to make a monolithic M3 Ultra SOC as they currently sell a Mac Studio Ultra for …