Russia-Ukraine

[Colstan]

I can’t imagine Russia will be able to change the tide of this war in the bear to moderate term and the Russian people will eventually tire of their loved ones returning in body bags with nothing to show for it. The scary thing is that I don’t see an east off-ramp for Putin at this point. And that’s a dangerous situation for everyone.

All good points, @AG_PhamD. I don't see an easy resolution to this, not that there has been one since the "special military operation" began. The de-escalation crowd in Brussels and D.C. have lost another of their cards, because Putin just cashed in one of his last chips by announcing general mobilization, nearly the last that he still held in the deck. Threatening to strand astronauts on the ISS feels like ages ago. Cutting off Russian natural gas exports to Europe through Gazprom has already been played. I think Putin thought that Europe would buckle because of his perception that they are addicted to cheap Russian energy. It's going to be painful throughout the Winter months, but this is something that needed to be dealt with eventually. It's often been said that the United States is the "Saudi Arabia of natural gas". If that is indeed the case, then in the near-term, perhaps the U.S. should do everything possible reduce that pressure in any way possible, without taking on that role permanently.

The only remaining card is threats of total nuclear war between the Russian Federation and NATO and its allies. While Putin definitely believed the lies that he was being told about the imminent collapse of the Ukrainian government, seeing how it is being run by "Nazis and drug addicts", I don't see him as being irrational to the point of thinking that Russia can win a nuclear exchange, especially considering the failure rate of Russia's long-range artillery. On top of that, Ukraine's cyberwar division has outclassed the much vaunted Russian hacker army. There's no telling what wiill happen if the full capability of NATO and allied cyber divisions are brought to the virtual front. Even stalwartly neutral countries such as Israel, which have maintained relatively open relations with Moscow are now turning on them, considering that Iranian drones are being deployed on the battlefield. With Russia resorting to purchasing arms from pariah states like North Korea and Iran, that shows even greater desperation.

There's the old observation that the Russian bear is never as weak as she seems, nor as strong as she appears. Moscow's historical strategy has always been to make up for quality with quantity. In this case, that involves depleting Ukrainian bullets using the chests of Russian men of fighting age. That's quite a dilemma: fight on the front lines and die at the hands of a well-trained, competent Ukrainian military; or die at the hands of your countrymen who have been tasked with shooting anyone who attempts to retreat.

I don't know what is going to happen, perhaps Russia's play to overwhelm Ukraine with a pure numerical advantage will succeed, that history is yet to be written. What I am certain of is that notions such as French President Emmanuel Macron's belief that Ukraine must not humiliate Vladimir Putin are long since past. I think Ukraine's government has the right notion and appeasement never works. At this point, it's impossible for Putin to save face, because he's already lost it. Attempting to give Russia an easy out, when they've already proven to have a corrupt chain of command, vastly over-estimated military capabilities, and the evaporation of the notion that Putin has never lost a war, has resulted in Russia becoming an international laughing stock.

I don't know what turns this around for Russia, if there is an excuse for Putin to declare victory and bring his troops back home, but I am absolutely certain that nobody will ever take Russia's conventional forces seriously, not for at least another generation.

 

[Huntn]

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1572534423601696769/

Mysterious accidents/deaths seem to be common place in good ole Russia.

 

[Nycturne]

Wasn’t that the case in Ukraine too?

It is, but two opponents can make the same move, and have it be a mistake for one and important for the other.

Russian military morale is not doing great, their supplies are allegedly not in great shape either. Folks being brought in to fight for Russia have to have some inkling of what awaits them. Ukraine with Zelenskyy’s government standing strong in the face of an aggressor, along with support from the west to keep the troops supplied paints a very different picture in terms of how the fighters will act and respond to “we need you here to fight”.

Doing this is a sign of desperation for both sides for sure. But when you have a large nation invading you, I think it’s reasonable to expect the defenders to act in desperation.

The only remaining card is threats of total nuclear war between the Russian Federation and NATO and its allies. While Putin definitely believed the lies that he was being told about the imminent collapse of the Ukrainian government, seeing how it is being run by "Nazis and drug addicts", I don't see him as being irrational to the point of thinking that Russia can win a nuclear exchange.

We can only hope he isn’t that irrational. Anyone who begins thinking that it is even possible for a nuclear exchange to be “won” is extremely dangerous.

I think Ukraine's government has the right notion and appeasement never works. At this point, it's impossible for Putin to save face, because he's already lost it. Attempting to give Russia an easy out, when they've already proven to have a corrupt chain of command, vastly over-estimated military capabilities, and the evaporation of the notion that Putin has never lost a war, has resulted in Russia becoming an international laughing stock.

And this is the trouble. Putin lost face by his own hand. And he’s never struck me as the type who will just walk away after losing face. And that’s partly what worries me. He won’t leave Ukraine until he’s forced out of Ukraine, and appeasement will just mean he will try again later. And if the people of Russia cannot move against him, it means he will continue to menace his neighbors with ideas of a new “USSR”. It’s not like NATO will be dumb enough to try a “regime change” on a major nuclear power.

It’s also why I worry about authoritarianism in the US. Can you imagine the same sort of regime in charge of the US military and nuclear arsenal? That would be bad for everyone.

I don't know what turns this around for Russia, if there is an excuse for Putin to declare victory and bring his troops back home, but I am absolutely certain that nobody will ever take Russia's conventional forces seriously, not for at least another generation.

Agreed.

 

[Citysnaps]

but I am absolutely certain that nobody will ever take Russia's conventional forces seriously, not for at least another generation.

I think the whole Russia-Ukraine mess has been an outstanding opportunity for western intelligence agencies to scoop up gobs of realtime information/data with respect to Russian leadership decision making, preparations, strategy, tactics, command structure, weaknesses/strengths, capabilities, failures, protocols, logistics, weapons systems capabilities, communications systems, combat operations, (lack of) professionalism, and on and on, all being stressed tested.

What a bonanza of information, useful for dealing with future Russian adventurism.

 

[Yoused]

Mysterious accidents/deaths seem to be common place in good ole Russia.

In Soviet Russia, accidents have you

 

[AG_PhamD]

I don't know what turns this around for Russia, if there is an excuse for Putin to declare victory and bring his troops back home, but I am absolutely certain that nobody will ever take Russia's conventional forces seriously, not for at least another generation

I think their plan is to throw as much cannon fodder at the problem as possible between now and the winter to hold the line until the weather improves and then do what they had been doing- relentless pounding until there’s nothing left to conquer and therefore no “risk” exists. Meanwhile they can hope energy costs and inflation will force the Western public to demand our leaders stop supplying arms to Ukraine. I think that’s a very optimistic goal though.

Perhaps the best possible outcome is for Putin to die naturally or with some assistance, and his replacement can back Russia out of this mess blaming Putin. There’s no guarantee his replacement would be better though. In any sense, Putin winning the war seems synonymous with his own survival, making this situation all the more dangerous. I don’t see someone so power hungry and narcissistic ending the war after taking so many losses.

After all the destruction and heinous war crimes committed by Russia, I see little opportunity for a peace deal- why would Ukraine take a deal? Especially so long as they have western support. And frankly, I believe NATO is using this opportunity to put a death nail in the dream of a new Soviet Union or Russia has a true global superpower. With that goal in mind they will make this as long and painful for Russia as possible, even at the expense of Ukraine.

 

[Nycturne]

Ukraine doesn’t seem to be suffering much war fatigue at the moment. They’ll take everything NATO will offer and ask for more right now in terms of military aid.

If Ukraine is willing to hold the line, and agrees on the philosophy of not giving this mouse a cookie, do we really tell them no? Is it better to help them while they die on their feet or hold back in the hope of saving lives but letting Putin wage wars of aggression without pushing back?

No good answers, but my vote is that as long as Ukraine wants to fight, I say we help them.

 

[AG_PhamD]

Here’s an interesting report of some of the solders being called up for service:

Russia drafted an old man with diabetes, a 17-year-old, and people with no training to fight in Ukraine, reports say — a sign of desperation

Russian officials are calling up people who do not fall under the criteria of its partial military mobilization, multiple reports said.

www.businessinsider.com

For example, a 63 year old man wtith diabetes and cerebral ischemia. There’s a number of other examples of people who should not have been drafted but have been anyways.

They say these people won’t be sent to the front line but I’m not sure anyone believes that. As it is most front line combat soldiers haven’t had a break. There are also rumors they’re actually going to try to mobilize 1 million, only saying 300,000 because it’s more palatable.

Another point of analysis I heard was even training 300,000 men will be logistically extremely difficult. Russia lacks enough trainers, training facilities, many trainers are already busy training others, etc. Presumably these people drafted should have military experience but even irked that’s true, many probably haven’t served in 10-5+ years.

Those drafted have already reported not having beds, being treated like crap by their superiors, etc. The moral is likely quite low considering they don’t want to be there to begin with.

 

[Citysnaps]

Here’s an interesting report of some of the solders being called up for service:

Russia drafted an old man with diabetes, a 17-year-old, and people with no training to fight in Ukraine, reports say — a sign of desperation

Russian officials are calling up people who do not fall under the criteria of its partial military mobilization, multiple reports said.

www.businessinsider.com

For example, a 63 year old man wtith diabetes and cerebral ischemia. There’s a number of other examples of people who should not have been drafted but have been anyways.

They say these people won’t be sent to the front line but I’m not sure anyone believes that. As it is most front line combat soldiers haven’t had a break. There are also rumors they’re actually going to try to mobilize 1 million, only saying 300,000 because it’s more palatable.

Another point of analysis I heard was even training 300,000 men will be logistically extremely difficult. Russia lacks enough trainers, training facilities, many trainers are already busy training others, etc. Presumably these people drafted should have military experience but even irked that’s true, many probably haven’t served in 10-5+ years.

Those drafted have already reported not having beds, being treated like crap by their superiors, etc. The moral is likely quite low considering they don’t want to be there to begin with.

As I was waking up this morning I heard a story on NPR that Germany is welcoming all escaping Russian conscriptees looking for a new life and liberal democracy. Very generous, imo.

 

[Colstan]

For a bit of levity, whoever is running the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's Twitter account deserves a pay increase. This time, they provide a helpful video on the new Lend-Lease program. Here's a glimpse at the rifles being supplied to new Russian recruits that I'm sure will serve them well.

Finally, props to Mark Summer at Daily Kos for doing some actual reporting on what is happening on the ground in the war. So much of the media relies upon emotional anecdotes that get clicks and ratings, which is lazy coverage that doesn't inform, instead of actual reporting with verified information. Most of what we know is from partisan sources on social media, which aren't always the most reliable.

Ukraine update: Ukraine is across the Oskil, and across the Oskil, and across the Oskil, and ...

On Friday, the majority of the action when it comes to a counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces is along the Oskil River. But while attention has lately been focused on the city of Lyman and Ukrainian forces maneuvering to encircle the Russian forces...

www.dailykos.com

 

[AG_PhamD]

As I was waking up this morning I heard a story on NPR that Germany is welcoming all escaping Russian conscriptees looking for a new life and liberal democracy. Very generous, imo.

I am very suspicious of how that would work in practice. I’m not sure if that’s something typical of countries to offer during times of war- certainly nothing I have heard of during any major war, but it seems a little problematic and hard to execute. There also seems something ethically problematic about offering asylum to Ukrainians and then also offering the same limited resources to Russians. With Russia having a massive pool of conscripts to chose from and limited resources for Germany to provide, I’m not sure Ukraine would benefit that much. Especially considering evading the draft in Russia very well may ensure you are never able to return to your homeland and family/friends ever again.

I suppose there are also the logistical problems of how these people would get to Germany. Many cannot afford to leave the country as it is and Russia could easily restrict international travel to men in the demographic of conscripts- and this already may be happening.

What’s most baffling is Germany already lacks sufficient energy to provide enough energy for its people, let alone at an affordable cost. Their economy is in serious trouble. Is taking on perhaps tens of thousands more people and providing them aid really that feasible?

Or is this just another way for Germany to signal support for Ukraine and the West in this war without providing military aid (especially offensive weapons) and offering something that can never be delivered upon. Germany is getting screwed by the Russians on energy but continuously fails to follow through on commitments (or at least in any sense of a timely manner), as if if they do follow through they will be punished further- which I’m not sure is anymore possible at this point.

Germany needs to stop pretending they can appear to support Ukraine while also appeasing Russia enough so they can get their gas back. It’s not happening- Russia couldn’t care less whether they sell Germany gas or not and have made that very clear. As much as I empathize with Germany’s difficult situation, they are paying the consequences for making bad decisions and deals with the devil so to speak. (And sadly the US and world are doing the same when it comes to green technologies like batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, etc when it comes to China).

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

There really needs to be a world revolution to stop cowering to the fragile egos of billionaires who can’t give less of a shit about anybody other than themself. They’ve clearly grown bored in their ivory towers and have turned to destabilizing the world for sport. So few of them and so overwhelming many of us and yet we’re the ones who feel helpless.

 

[Huntn]

There really needs to be a world revolution to stop cowering to the fragile egos of billionaires who can’t give less of a shit about anybody other than themself. They’ve clearly grown bored in their ivory towers and have turned to destabilizing the world for sport. So few of them and so overwhelming many of us and yet we’re the ones who feel helpless.

There should be no billionaires. In the terms of the Bible, it is an example of greed and glutany. As a billionaire, what you have takes away from thousands. Now as you know I’m not a Bible fan, but it’s curious with this example in their rulebook held up as a standard, how many politicians on the Right claim to be Christians and regard or aspire to be wealthy as the ultimate goal, and I’m not referencing being comfortable, but dreaming about being stinking rich as in this would solve all MY problems. Or am I confusing this with power? They seem to go hand in hand. You? We? You and we are not my problem. My problem is controlling you.

Then there is the Head Mentally Ill, Insecure broken little boy, who claims he is rich, while lamenting that nobody loves him, except for the pack of SUCKERS he has to fool into servicing his malfunctioning ego. There is absolutely no one who is respected on the world’s stage who respects poor little Donny.

​

 

[Eric]

Wondering where Putin's true allies are? Look no further than Fox News, just wow.

Russian State TV Using Tucker Carlson Clips to Promote War as Unrest Grows​

Russian State TV Using Tucker Carlson Clips to Promote War as Unrest Grows

At least 745 people were arrested on Saturday for protesting Russia's mobilization, according to a human rights group.

www.newsweek.com

Russian state TV is using clips of Fox News host Tucker Carlson to promote the country's war against Ukraine amid protests against Vladimir Putin's partial mobilization.

Clips of Carlson chastising the U.S. over its continued backing of Kyiv were broadcast to millions of Russians this week as the Russian president ramped up the country's war effort, according to Russian Media Monitor creator Julia Davis.

Protests against the mobilization in Russia continued on Saturday with at least 745 people detained, according to OVD-Info, a human rights watchdog that monitors police activity.

An ally of Putin has also threatened to send relatives of anti-war protesters to the front line in Ukraine.

 

[Nycturne]

There should be no billionaires. In the terms of the Bible, it is an example of greed and glutany. As a billionaire, what you have takes away from thousands. Now as you know I’m not a Bible fan, but it’s curious with this example in their rulebook held up as a standard, how many politicians on the Right claim to be Christians and regard or aspire to be wealthy as the ultimate goal, and I’m not referencing being comfortable, but dreaming about being stinking rich as in this would solve all MY problems.

They see it as a reward from God:

Prosperity theology - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Huntn]

They see it as a reward from God:

Prosperity theology - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Achieved in a way that undermines humanity as a species and undercuts the teachings of Christianity, an achievement in persuasive hypocrisy..

 

[Huntn]

Wondering where Putin's true allies are? Look no further than Fox News, just wow.

Russian State TV Using Tucker Carlson Clips to Promote War as Unrest Grows​

Russian State TV Using Tucker Carlson Clips to Promote War as Unrest Grows

At least 745 people were arrested on Saturday for protesting Russia's mobilization, according to a human rights group.

www.newsweek.com

Such a MoFo.

 

[Edd]

Wondering where Putin's true allies are? Look no further than Fox News, just wow.

Russian State TV Using Tucker Carlson Clips to Promote War as Unrest Grows​

Russian State TV Using Tucker Carlson Clips to Promote War as Unrest Grows

At least 745 people were arrested on Saturday for protesting Russia's mobilization, according to a human rights group.

www.newsweek.com

I searched for some response/reaction from TC about this stuff and found nothing. You’d think Fox or him would have something to say, however disingenuous it’s guaranteed to be.

 

[lizkat]

I searched for some response/reaction from TC about this stuff and found nothing. You’d think Fox or him would have something to say, however disingenuous it’s guaranteed to be.

Waiting for Rupert to text a suggestion from wherever the ol' coot is vacationing today.

 

[Yoused]

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1573650479799799809/