The Election Day Thread

[lizkat]

Strap in, it's going to be a long day/night.

Week, or weeks for a final count... even if the winner is long since pretty much a given. No state's totals are official until the state certifies the results. Each state, not the federal government, sets rules for elections and may delegate some to the county or board of election level... with the by now well known caveat that rules may be challenged in the courts.

The New York Times has a very useful list of timing-related and vote-counting issues, state by state.

How Long Will Vote Counting Take? Estimates and Deadlines in All 50 States (Published 2020)

We asked officials about their election results processes and what share of votes they expect to be counted by Nov. 4.

www.nytimes.com

Bottom line on how much can still be up in the air by midnight (pick a time zone!):

Even once the early and in-person ballots are counted, a significant number of votes could still be outstanding. Only nine states expect to have at least 98 percent of unofficial results reported by noon the day after the election. Twenty-two states and the District of Columbia allow postmarked ballots to arrive after Election Day, so the timing will depend on when voters return them.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

At the risk of repeating myself: Take a look at the OSCE/ODIHR site; by tomorrow afternoon - it would be at around or about 3 pm or 4pm (15.00 or 16.00) Washington time - the Limited Election Observation Mission in the US should publish their preliminary report on the election (Statement of Preliminary Findings) and will hold a press conference at which they will explain and publish their findings - and will take questions; this will have a significant say, or influence, on how the international community will regard the election.

 

[lizkat]

At the risk of repeating myself: Take a look at the OSCE/ODIHR site; by tomorrow afternoon - it would be at around or about 3 pm or 4pm (15.00 or 16.00) Washington time - the Limited Election Observation Mission in the US should publish their preliminary report on the election (Statement of Preliminary Findings) and will hold a press conference at which they will explain and publish their findings - and will take questions; this will have a significant say, or influence, in how the international community will regard the election.

Their final report may end up more eye-opening... here again is the link to their observations on the US election

General Elections, 3 November 2020

Press conference Following an invitation to observe the general elections scheduled for 3 November 2020 in the United States of America, based on the findings and conclusions of the Needs Assessment Mission deployed from 29 May to 5 June 2020, and in accordance with its mandate, ODIHR is...

www.osce.org

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Their final report may end up more eye-opening... here again is the link to their observations on the US election

General Elections, 3 November 2020

Press conference Following an invitation to observe the general elections scheduled for 3 November 2020 in the United States of America, based on the findings and conclusions of the Needs Assessment Mission deployed from 29 May to 5 June 2020, and in accordance with its mandate, ODIHR is...

www.osce.org

The trouble is that the final report won't be published for a further four to six weeks, by which time, matters may have moved on and the focus will have shifted elsewhere.

However, I would recommend the final report - as it will for the basis for recommendations (the stick & sign-post with which one can motivate some regimes and administrations to begin to think of changing some of the less attractive elements of their electoral systems, carrots often take the form of aid packages) - and the facts cited will have been meticulously verified and confirmed.

But, for immediate reaction - including for a analysis of just how flawed and far from ideal the electoral system may be in practice - I do recommend reading the preliminary report, as it will have the benefit of immediacy, credibility, and a wide public distribution.

 

[JayMysteri0]

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1323654429258747904/

Now some want to act like they give an ish about the health of others. Wonder what's in it for them?
https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1323656891927584768/

 

[JayMysteri0]

Meanwhile...
https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1323657059871690753/
WOW!!

 

[User.45]

Apparently, they ended up building the wall!

 

[User.45]

Very long, I fear.

One can hope for a veritable tsunami that will clear the loathsome Mr Trump and his foul minions from office.

At this point it's either going to be confirmation of my bias regarding our species, which will make me feel smarter; or a a breath of relief, which will make me feel happier. At the end of the day, I'll deserve my drinks.

 

[Eric]

At this point it's either going to be confirmation of my bias regarding our species, which will make me feel smarter; or a a breath of relief, which will make me feel happier. At the end of the day, I'll deserve my drinks.

I have all but lost faith in the American people, anyone looking at the last 4 years who says "I want more of that" is simply not capable of making rational decisions.

 

[Eric]

They're reporting that only about 60% of the mail-in ballots will not make it in time because the post office can't keep up with the demand after DeJoy crippled them.

Want to see how well Trump's unscalable fence works? Tell millions of people their votes won't count.

 

[lizkat]

At this point it's either going to be confirmation of my bias regarding our species, which will make me feel smarter; or a a breath of relief, which will make me feel happier. At the end of the day, I'll deserve my drinks.

I've donned my rose colored glasses for Election Day even if some antics after that may cause me to have to find a stronger pair. Maybe it's the sunny weather here today. Still it's damn cold outside and I'm really really glad that my mailed-in absentee ballot sits safe inside my local Board of Elections awaiting its state-appointed moment for actual counting.

In NYS the absentee ballots are not counted before polls close on Election Day, their outer security envelopes are are only validated for having been expected back in the board of elections that sent them out to the registered voters who requested them. What happens in NYS in the meantime during early voting and on Election Day is that a voter may vote in person if the polling place books show him eligible, but if that does occur, then that person's absentee ballot if any is cast aside when those are finally counted. The signed polling place registry books are returned after in-person votes are counted on Election Night, hence the delay in considering and counting any absentee ballots.

 

[lizkat]

They're reporting that only about 60% of the mail-in ballots will not make it in time because the post office can't keep up with the demand after DeJoy crippled them.

Want to see how well Trump's unscalable fence works? Tell millions of people their votes won't count.

Hey. It's not only Republican lawyers who show up in court with lawsuits related to elections, ya know. Bank on that in 2020.

In the meantime the best counsel is to vote and then show some patience. It ain't over until a state certifies its results and the last lawsuit has been ruled on or thrown out of court.

More people still believe in the rule of law than don't in the USA. The 2020 elections can help keep it that way if we don't overreact to every little tweet and breaking-news chyron on cable television. Information travels at near the speed of light. Election results take weeks. Rebuilding a country torn by violence could take forever.

My lean is this: vote, chill out and let the lawyers handle it.

If the electors certify in NovemberDecember *] that Biden won but Trump tells the Army to surround the White House and they ACTUALLY DO THAT, wake me up. I want to see Special Forces drag Donny Boy out of that bunker.

[ * edit: sorry for the slip of the calendar wishlist there... Electoral College meets in December]

 

[Joe]

It's gonna be a mess. If Biden wins Trump isn't going to go down easy.

I'm just hoping if Biden wins that its by a big enough margin that Trump can't challenge it much.

 

[rdrr]

I've donned my rose colored glasses for Election Day even if some antics after that may cause me to have to find a stronger pair. Maybe it's the sunny weather here today. ...

I wish I had a pair of those rose colored glasses. My outlook is like my weekly COVID tests, negative.

I think I am reading too many blurbs on twitter, about how there is a huge turnout for Trump. My stomach is all in knots and I am wondering what I will do, because I cannot live here under Trump for another 4 years.

 

[User.45]

I wish I had a pair of those rose colored glasses. My outlook is like my weekly COVID tests, negative.

I think I am reading too many blurbs on twitter, about how there is a huge turnout for Trump. My stomach is all in knots and I am wondering what I will do, because I cannot live here under Trump for another 4 years.

The thing is if you look at the ballot affiliations, it's predominantly Dem, and if you look at the no affiliation folks, that's nearly as much as Reps, and those have a pro Biden Margin too. So Trumpists coming out the woodwork is expected but means nothing on its own.

 

[Arkitect]

Well, that's it for me for tonight.

No more news sites or TV channels until first thing tomorrow.

See you all in the morning…

 

[lizkat]

The thing is if you look at the ballot affiliations, it's predominantly Dem, and if you look at the no affiliation folks, that's nearly as much as Reps, and those have a pro Biden Margin too. So Trumpists coming out the woodwork is expected but means nothing on its own.

Also, Republicans may have been more likely to take Trump up on his disparagement of voting by mail, maybe especially because not all of DeJoy's tinkering with mail processing speed landed in urban areas.

Some of that USPS slowdown affected rural roadside mailbox owners whose prescriptions were delayed. DeJoy had no lock on managing to affect only rural Democrats with those slowdowns, which took place in the more centralized major mail sorting centers. Like around here that would be up in Syracuse or in Albany. We locally saw our mail on-time-delivery rate sink from 98% to 88% and it's not like the local contract carrier sorted his route out by what kinda lawn signs we have out there. We have all had somewhat slower mail delivery.​

Still, more motivated Democrats likely voted early or by mail as early as possible... so the turnout on Election Day now may be disproportionately high for conservative voters, even in states that tend always to vote blue in Presidential elections.

 

[JayMysteri0]

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1323705667195199488/

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1323673994990657537/

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1323597546149863425/

 

[JayMysteri0]

Um, wha? In retrospect though, if he is NOT the president of your country, "Why the F' not?"

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1323685387819245568/

Do they NOT realize what kind of ****hole country the man thinks they have?

Then again, if there is no extradition, ...it is a strong option.

 

[Joe]

It's just crazy to me how many people support this guy. On my way to work this morning I saw a car plastered with MAGA and Latinos4Trump written all over the window.