The Election Day Thread

Scepticalscribe said:
@lizkat: Your post - in The Other Place, The Other Country (MR) - about what might have happened had the GOP voted to impeach Mr Trump is worth repeating here, as I think you make a very valid point.
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I'll fish it out tomorrow then 'cuz I got about two minutes left on my consciousness clock today if I'm reading it correctly lol. Or I don't care if someone else cut and paste it into appropriate thread here.

My last contribution for today is this wonderful photo taken by the NYT in Atlanta.., flashed me back to 2008 when Obama was elected, made me cry. So many black women helped make this Biden election happen, hope they can help the Senate races tip Georgia's seats blue in January runoffs.

nyt - atlanta after Biden win called.jpg
 
Scepticalscribe said:
@lizkat: Your post - in The Other Place, The Other Country (MR) - about what might have happened had the GOP voted to impeach Mr Trump is worth repeating here, as I think you make a very valid point.
Click to expand...

OK here is that post I had put up in the other place about what may have been a major GOP miscalculation.

--

Heck if the GOP had had the decency to try Trump properly in the Senate on the impeachment charges and then had voted to remove him on weight of the evidence, they'd probably be celebrating Pence's victory tonight, since an incumbent does have some usual advantage, as long as he is not incompetent or crazy... even in a year when covid-19 stalks the globe.

GOP leadership was still too invested in having nailed down "so much winning" back in 2016 to get it in the year 2020 that their inattentive, impulsive, boorish clod of an incumbent Donald Trump was gonna be a seriously problematic candidate --with his checkered and sometimes nervewracking track record for impulsivity and inexplicable lapses in judgment-- no matter which Democrat he would eventually face.

At this point this profoundly narcissistic guy Donald Trump is a walking full-decompensation hazard who doubtless requires a lot of handholding. Not sure that will be enough to preclude a spectacularly inglorious conclusion to his presidency. Wonder if the shreds of this Republican Party will learn anything from the experience. All the chatter about putting up Tucker Carlson in 2024 can certainly make one wonder.
 
lizkat said:
I'll fish it out tomorrow then 'cuz I got about two minutes left on my consciousness clock today if I'm reading it correctly lol. Or I don't care if someone else cut and paste it into appropriate thread here.

My last contribution for today is this wonderful photo taken by the NYT in Atlanta.., flashed me back to 2008 when Obama was elected, made me cry. So many black women helped make this Biden election happen, hope they can help the Senate races tip Georgia's seats blue in January runoffs.

Click to expand...

Let's hope that America pays back those who are disenfranchised and voted en masse for a chance to prosper and live without fear for their lives and their love ones.
 
Looking at NC processed at 98%, my estimate is ~110K outstanding votes and with Trump's current lead, it would take nearly 90% of these going to Biden for him to flip. Now, I suspect the reality is they have no good idea how many outstanding ballots they have. There's a chance that Trump doing outstandingly well in this state with absentee ballots (i.e. within 5% of Biden's margin) is an indicator of a batch of Biden ballots not counted yet. I doubt it though.

On the other hand AZ seemed to be counting mainly Trump ballots for a while. Dove into county-wise data and even the remaining ballots maintain the present trends for the Trump counties, it would still be insufficient to reverse Biden's lead.

So my projection is:
GA, AZ: Biden
NC, AK: Trump
 
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Scepticalscribe said:
@lizkat: Your post - in The Other Place, The Other Country (MR) - about what might have happened had the GOP voted to impeach Mr Trump is worth repeating here, as I think you make a very valid point.
Click to expand...
This is why the the GOP has blood on it’s hands and needs to be eradicated as a political force in the US. Don’t hold your breath. :cry:
 
I realized last night why Republicans continue to support him. It's because he says out loud what they are all thinking inside. They recognize the absurdity of it. They recognize it's unacceptable and goes against everything this country is supposed to embrace. They have been quietly and behind the scenes trying to change the course and avoid the inevitable change in American demographics. Then Trump took it to another level. It's perfect. They can act like they don't approve, while enabling him by hiding behind the fact that he is the President. If he succeeds, smiles all around. If he fails, they can distance from him quickly.

Republicans have become the Nazi party of America. Biden won, but trust me, this is not over...
 
iMi said:
I realized last night why Republicans continue to support him. It's because he says out loud what they are all thinking inside. They recognize the absurdity of it. They recognize it's unacceptable and goes against everything this country is supposed to embrace. They have been quietly and behind the scenes trying to change the course and avoid the inevitable change in American demographics. Then Trump took it to another level. It's perfect. They can act like they don't approve, while enabling him by hiding behind the fact that he is the President. If he succeeds, smiles all around. If he fails, they can distance from him quickly.

Republicans have become the Nazi party of America. Biden won, but trust me, this is not over...
Click to expand...
I think people like McConnell *are* just saying shit to stay on the good side of trumpists. Since they are realizing that there's a chance for trump to remain an organizing force in the GOP, he feels throwing trump under the bus now is just unnecessary risk for him, when trump may walk under the bus on his own in a week. He'll drop the act next week when he'll be forced to take a stand that will stick. It still tells you about the moral consistency of McConnell.
 
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PearsonX said:
I think people like McConnell is just saying shit so to stay on the good side of trumpists. Since they are realizing that there's a chance for trump to remain an organizing force in the GOP, he feels throwing trump under the bus now is just unnecessary risk for him, when trump may walk under the bus on his own in a week. He'll drop the act next week when he'll be forced to take a stand that will stick. It still tells you about the moral consistency of McConnell.
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I think McConnell will maintain support for Mango till the Georgia runoffs. He needs to remain majority leader. If it becomes apparent that Mango will sorta-kinda concede, McConnell will drop him like rock unless Loefler and Purdue get him involved in the runoffs. Which I can't see Mango doing if he knows his 2nd term push is toast.
 
ronntaylor said:
I think McConnell will maintain support for Mango till the Georgia runoffs. He needs to remain majority leader. If it becomes apparent that Mango will sorta-kinda concede, McConnell will drop him like rock unless Loefler and Purdue get him involved in the runoffs. Which I can't see Mango doing if he knows his 2nd term push is toast.
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As time goes on I think it will hurt Republicans in general, Biden's win is clear and continues to grow daily. It's over, they just need to realize it.
 
ronntaylor said:
I think McConnell will maintain support for Mango till the Georgia runoffs. He needs to remain majority leader. If it becomes apparent that Mango will sorta-kinda concede, McConnell will drop him like rock unless Loefler and Purdue get him involved in the runoffs. Which I can't see Mango doing if he knows his 2nd term push is toast.
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Good point. In reality it all depends on NC which may still flip in the senate....I really suspect a big Biden ballot drop there, which won't flip it for Biden, but may flip it for the senatorial candidate. Trump lost or got squeezed due to people voting third party, in this case those 1-1.5% going to Libertarian. If those candidates are not on the ballot, that 1-1.5% of vote will be more likely reinforcing the Republicans than the Democrats, so even winning a single one of the runoffs would be a significant achievement, winning both is very close to impossible.

ericgtr12 said:
As time goes on I think it will hurt Republicans in general, Biden's win is clear and continues to grow daily. It's over, they just need to realize it.
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What I and probably nobody can predict is what's gonna happen to Trumpism once Trump is dethroned. It's one thing that trump doesn't wanna give up and another whether his mojo would remain unaffected by a loss. I think it will be a gradual decline and there's still enough momentum for Trumpists to carry the GA runoffs into the finish line.
 
PearsonX said:
I think people like McConnell *are* just saying shit to stay on the good side of trumpists. Since they are realizing that there's a chance for trump to remain an organizing force in the GOP, he feels throwing trump under the bus now is just unnecessary risk for him, when trump may walk under the bus on his own in a week. He'll drop the act next week when he'll be forced to take a stand that will stick. It still tells you about the moral consistency of McConnell.
Click to expand...
It’s a crap reason to act as egregiously as he is.
 

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