The recall of Chesa Boudin and the failure of progressive criminal justice reform

[Eric]

Citations Needed had a very interesting (and different) take on all of this.

They pointed out that Jacksonville, FL has a population roughly the same size as SF and has a much higher murder rate, yet you don't get national stories about their "crazy DA" because the DA there is a conservative Republican. SF is supposedly an example of "socialism gone wrong" yet SF is one of the most unequal cities in the U.S. (California is one of the most unequal states) and is not socialist in the least. It's anti-left propaganda that ends up in the NYT and other non-right-wing sources. That doesn't mean there isn't a property crime problem in SF, but it's just interesting how this stuff gets framed in the media vs. crime in other cities. Like how Kansas City has a higher murder rate than Chicago, but "Kansas City" isn't code for "black on black" the way "Chicago" is. People definitely vote based on perceptions and what's in the media. Perceptions and what's in the media aren't necessarily reflective of reality though.

While this is definitely true, we have to wonder how much of an impact it has locally when it's published on a national level. I think it makes for great talking points but if they think Republicans will come here and save the day then they're nuts because the people trust them even less than they did Boudin. But at the same time they have to address crime in the streets, it's out of control, just saying "Republicans are smearing me" and "we don't want to overwhelm the criminal justice system" isn't going to cut it anymore. Meaningful change is needed or they'll just keep getting voted out, even by progressives.

 

[ronntaylor]

Yep, Fox News always blabs about all the murders in Chicago and blames them on the evil liberals. Meanwhile, the top 3 cities for murders are in GOP-run states where a 5-year-old can buy an uzi for $1.99 (or will be able to soon at the rate they‘re loosening gun laws there): Jackson, Mississippi; Gary, Indiana; and St. Louis, Missouri.

Fox et al will simply point out that these are Black cities!!! "See how the coloreds are!!!"

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Yep, Fox News always blabs about all the murders in Chicago and blames them on the evil liberals. Meanwhile, the top 3 cities for murders are in GOP-run states where a 5-year-old can buy an uzi for $1.99 (or will be able to soon at the rate they‘re loosening gun laws there): Jackson, Mississippi; Gary, Indiana; and St. Louis, Missouri.

Most of the right-wingers shouting about how the liberals are done for because of San Francisco probably couldn’t even find San Fran on a map.

Liberal politicians don’t mention this type thing, or at least not enough. They are far too polite and we’ve reached the point where they feel like mentioning these type facts is punching below the belt. Republicans have no problem taking a dump all over what they consider a Democrat stronghold but Democrats won’t respond accordingly because they are worried about upsetting 5 voters and the right-wing media will amplify even the most marginal of slights. “Look at this out of touch elite attacking the good people of Shoot-You-In-The-Face, Nebraska.”

 

[Herdfan]

Why are progressives losing to moderate “tough on crime” Democrats? Do progressive criminal justice reform policies lead to a temporary increase in crime that most people are not willing to put up with?

I think because they got it backwards.

All of those programs, which may work, need to be implemented and in place and working BEFORE you reduce the police presence. In other words, reduce the police force when it is no longer needed.

Instead they simply stopped enforcing low level crimes and the people got pissed.

Fear.

Correct. But fear based on actual experiences of either themselves, friends or neighbors. This was not some made-up boogeyman.

I'm one who fully supported the recall, most support reform but anyone who lives or works in San Francisco is fed up with the amount of crime going on, seriously it's like comic book "save Gotham Batman" bad there. People are literally walking into stores, filling up their carts and walking out in front of God and everyone with a look like "holy shit, I can't believe how easy this is" on their faces.

Not only are they refusing to prosecute them, the police have all but stopped trying to even stop them as a result. So yes, the people in the city are understandably pissed, they don't feel safe shopping or walking the streets. We all understand the challenges in dealing with poverty and there's plenty of blame to go around but this is more than that.

Even the most progressive Democrats have had it, the city needs to act. I hope Mayor London Breed was paying attention because she's next on the chopping block if no changes are made.

Like I pointed out, not some made up boogeyman. He lives it. The people are reacting to real fear.

The high cost of living is I'm sure a major driver of a rise in property crime and homelessness, but what do you do about it other than build more housing?

Plus, building housing out there is expensive. Every new building has to be up to modern earthquake standards. We are just hitting $300/sq for high end homes (brick/stone, granite, tile showers, hardwood though out, stained trim & doors), I can't imagine what the build cost per square is out there for even modest homes.

This kind of reminds me of when the SF school board was focusing on renaming schools named after problematic historical figures instead of getting kids back in school, which both pissed off locals and gave the right another talking point about cancel culture and democrats being out of touch with important issues.

Turns out they kind of were. To me, it seems they were listening to the loudest groups, not the largest.

While this is definitely true, we have to wonder how much of an impact it has locally when it's published on a national level. I think it makes for great talking points but if they think Republicans will come here and save the day then they're nuts because the people trust them even less than they did Boudin.

Possibly. But don't forget that back when he seemed normal, Gulianni not only won the mayor's office in NYC but lowered crime measurably.

So anything is possible. The LA mayor's race will tell some tales.

 

[GermanSuplex]

All this tells me is that democrats and independents are more rational than conservatives. I admire this guy’s tenacity and think it’s a case of bad timing and a perfect storm of events than solely his policies, but either way, he didn’t listen enough to the pulse of his city and now he’s paid the price.

This isn’t a liberal issue - this is a political and people issue that SHOULD happen more often, and there should be a way for Americans to recall their elected officials too. We SHOULDN’T stick with our side all the time no matter what.

So good on San Francisco. This shows me liberals are more reasonable than conservatives when it comes to holding them accountable.

 

[Herdfan]

All this tells me is that democrats and independents are more rational than conservatives. I admire this guy’s tenacity and think it’s a case of bad timing and a perfect storm of events than solely his policies, but either way, he didn’t listen enough to the pulse of his city and now he’s paid the price.

This isn’t a liberal issue - this is a political and people issue that SHOULD happen more often, and there should be a way for Americans to recall their elected officials too. We SHOULDN’T stick with our side all the time no matter what.

So good on San Francisco. This shows me liberals are more reasonable than conservatives when it comes to holding them accountable.

Except for decades when the Democrats controlled WV, every session a Republican would introduce a bill for Initiative, Referendum and Recall. Basically all the things California has. The Dems blocked it every time.

 

[Eric]

All this tells me is that democrats and independents are more rational than conservatives. I admire this guy’s tenacity and think it’s a case of bad timing and a perfect storm of events than solely his policies, but either way, he didn’t listen enough to the pulse of his city and now he’s paid the price.

This isn’t a liberal issue - this is a political and people issue that SHOULD happen more often, and there should be a way for Americans to recall their elected officials too. We SHOULDN’T stick with our side all the time no matter what.

So good on San Francisco. This shows me liberals are more reasonable than conservatives when it comes to holding them accountable.

It's also personal for me, every other week we learn about photographers who are being robbed of their gear, assailants lie in wait in popular areas for you to pull out your expensive gear then roll up on you, stick a gun in your face and take all of it. You never, ever, hear of them getting caught and there's also never a police presence in these well known tourist spots.

I've insured my gear and flat out stay away from all of those spots, as do most locals who know better. It forces you to find unique locations but it sucks that you simply can't do it otherwise.

 

[Deleted member 215]

Chapo had some interesting thoughts on this issue. Re. SF crime, they discussed the fact that pointing out higher crime statistics in years past, especially in the 1990s, is a worthless argument (not that anyone here was making that argument, but I have seen that in response to the reactions to the post-pandemic crime wave and the current perception that cities are lawless shitholes). It's true that overall crime might have been higher in cities like SF in the 90s and has been declining ever since, but certain types of crimes (i.e. shoplifting, a very visible crime) are up and that leads to a perception that overall crime is worse than ever, even if it technically isn’t. It feels more dramatic to have certain crimes go up in a short amount of time than all types of crime being more prevalent at once. Perceptions are reality. “Vibes” matter. The 90s were a "golden age" when most Americans believed things were getting better (and that high crime rate that began to rise in the early 70s was beginning to decline). The early 2020s are the total opposite: a time of peak pessimism, only getting worse with a never-ending pandemic and rising inflation. They also pointed out that even if crime is not directly affecting many residents, even if overall crime in SF actually went down during Boudin’s tenure, the homeless people lying on the streets, doing drugs add to the perception that everything is fucked. SF is so expensive that even those making over $150K are at risk of slipping into poverty. Few who live there actually feel comfortable in their situation. If nobody thinks anything is getting better or that there is much of a future, all we want is to hold onto what we have; giving up something in the short-term for better results in the long-term is a non-starter (which seems to be what these "progressive" solutions involve). And personally, I think that explains responses to other issues as well (like climate change).

 

[Herdfan]

Chapo had some interesting thoughts on this issue. Re. SF crime, they discussed the fact that pointing out higher crime statistics in years past, especially in the 1990s, is a worthless argument (not that anyone here was making that argument, but I have seen that in response to the reactions to the post-pandemic crime wave and the current perception that cities are lawless shitholes). It's true that overall crime might have been higher in cities like SF in the 90s and has been declining ever since, but certain types of crimes (i.e. shoplifting, a very visible crime) are up and that leads to a perception that overall crime is worse than ever, even if it technically isn’t. It feels more dramatic to have certain crimes go up in a short amount of time than all types of crime being more prevalent at once. Perceptions are reality.

It is certainly about the visibility. Rarely does one see video of gang on gang violence, but seeing security footage on almost a daily basis of what does look like lawlessness will change people's perceptions.

 

[SuperMatt]

Another big story related to the California election was that Rick Caruso was the top vote-getter in the L.A. Mayor’s race. This was supposed to be yet another sign that progressives were done for in California.

Well, it turns out early vote counts were a bit premature, and Karen Bass was the top vote-getter. And the 60-40 margin to recall Chesa Boudin went down to 55-45. Progressives also did well in many other races.

So, in the end, we had a bad DA in San Francisco who was recalled, and a mayoral race where a billionaire outspent Karen Bass 12-to-1 and still came in 2nd.

I can’t blame Fox for going all “progressives are toast!” since that is their entire business model. But a lot of other generally reputable news sources jumped onto that bandwagon as well right after the early results came in. Maybe they should take a breath before pontificating about the death of a political movement next time.

The Premature Narrative on Democrats and Crime

Today on TAP: As they keep counting votes in Los Angeles and elsewhere, last week’s claim of a backlash to criminal justice reform is disappearing.

prospect.org

 

[Deleted member 215]

Honestly, it’s not just Fox’s model. Other moderate/center-left news sources are pretty hostile to progressivism as well. It’s a fairly widespread agenda, unfortunately.

 

[AG_PhamD]

I think the problem of crime is a complex one. Certainly this trend of arresting people crimes only to immediately rerelease them is probably not the best idea. While I do think there does need to be bail reform, there should be ways for good behavior to allow for the sealing of most crimes, etc it seems like some jurisdictions have maybe gone too far in some cases. Perhaps rather than arbitrarily coming up with policy on bail, actually using data analytics to inform policy might be useful.

But that’s only one part of it. I would imagine a lot the crime in SF, like other cities, is committed by the large homeless population. SF’s nice weather and lax policies as I understand has been known to attract homeless people. The biggest factor when it comes to homelessness is mental health and addiction.

I believe the majority of random hate crimes are committed by mentally ill people as well. People with severe mental health problems often use street drugs to try and cope with their illness, but actually can exacerbate their symptoms.

Addiction is well associated with crime. Though clearly not always the case, Drug/alcohol habits make it hard for people to maintain jobs, especially high paying ones (or perform well in school, which obviously relates to earning potential. The cost of drugs is pretty unsustainable even for a lot of people with jobs. That sadly means people often resort to crime to afford their habit. This is especially true with opioids and potent stimulants. Impaired judgement also can increase the chances of violence and other types of illegal behavior.

I don’t think cost of living is probably as major of a factor in all of this, but maybe I’m wrong. That said, it’s probably not irrelevant.

I don’t think the solution is as simple as more people need to be sent to jail or more money needs to be spent on policing. That may or may not be true depending on the specific location, things like access to mental health treatment, laws around involuntary commitment, quality of homeless shelters, public housing, accessibility to addiction treatment, etc are probably also involved. Like most problems in life, there are probably a multitude of factors influencing the current situation. A holistic approach is more than likely needed.

Working in mental health one big problem I see, even here in Mass where we have probably the best public health program, there are very few “dual diagnosis” (severe mental health + addiction) treatment programs for the underprivileged (or even those with private insurance or paying out of pocket). Many mental health programs are not designed to really deal with addiction and in some cases will not accept actively addicted patients. Many addiction programs won’t accept mentally unstable patients or are really not equipped to which often leads to disastrous outcomes. Yet it should be glaringly obvious to most people mental health and addiction are invariably intertwined and cannot be individually treated in a vacuum.

I part-own a residential (avg 6-9 months) dual-diagnosis program, it’s $14,000 a month (insurance won’t pay for residential even though imo it’s the most successful type of care). Even at our price point we have 90%+ of our beds filled at any given moment. $14,000 sounds like a lot and it is but it’s a bargain compared to $70,000/month (private pay only) impatient programs.

IMO should be a lot more residential/longterm dual diagnosis programs and that state should pay for them. It allows for people to get stabilized long term, get back on their feet, and get their life back together.

 

[Citysnaps]

A dozen years ago I spent a lot of time in one of San Francisco’s most underserved neighborhoods getting to know and making portraits of people from different walks of life for a couple of projects. Some people had addictions of various sorts, mental and physical health issues, some living in SROs, some on the streets, dealers/enforcers, some people doing OK, others just getting by, etc. Night and day. I never felt unsafe. My view was be honest and give people respect and you got it back. And never take the cheap shot of someone out of it on the street.

At that point in time the consequences of gentrification were starting to become noticeable. Over a period of a year there were more living on the street. I’d see more used syringes in the curbs and more people shooting up out in the open. But there was still a feeling of some stability. A couple years after that the changes were more noticeable with more people living on the street accompanied with a vibe of frenetic instability in many parts of the neighborhood.

A year ago during a conversation with an SFPD cop friend, he said the situation has grown far worse. Much more instability, mental health issues, homelessness, alcohol/drug use, and crime. He put the blame on the rising abundance of inexpensive Fentanyl (100x stronger than heroin) coming on the scene and not having enough housing and medical/mental health resources to deal with the problem.

I was happy when Boudin was elected DA knowing that locking up the unhoused/addicted with mental and medical health issues was not the solution. And I’ve been rooting for him since believing a different approach at least needed to be tried - an experiment of sorts. But… the combination of the housing crisis, rising prices, the pandemic, Fentanyl, lack of suitable medical/mental health resources, police staffing shortages, etc all coming together all at once was too much for Boudin to ever have had a chance for a positive outcome.

 

[Yoused]

Except for decades when the Democrats controlled WV, every session a Republican would introduce a bill for Initiative, Referendum and Recall. Basically all the things California has. The Dems blocked it every time.

I live in a state that has all of those. The process is profoundly fraught. It frequently gets used by corporations to their own benefit, and by narcissists just seeking to mess things up. The people in large part are simply the common clay of the new land – you know, morons, and putting the legislative process in their hands, especially in an environment of open-ended advertising by the dollar, is ill-considered. We have a representative form of government for a reason, and petition-to-law confounds that system. Yeah, I think there probably should be some sort of counter-effect to the capitol, but it needs to be better designed than those things.

 

[SuperMatt]

I live in a state that has all of those. The process is profoundly fraught. It frequently gets used by corporations to their own benefit, and by narcissists just seeking to mess things up. The people in large part are simply the common clay of the new land – you know, morons, and putting the legislative process in their hands, especially in an environment of open-ended advertising by the dollar, is ill-considered. We have a representative form of government for a reason, and petition-to-law confounds that system. Yeah, I think there probably should be some sort of counter-effect to the capitol, but it needs to be better designed than those things.

Once Republicans got the majority in WV, did they put the Initiative, Referendum, and Recall into law?

From what I can find, it looks like the answer is no. So, do they not care anymore because they’re the majority? Or was it always just a small group pushing it, and it never had widespread support at all?

It doesn’t appear to be a party issue from what I can tell.

 

[Herdfan]

I think the problem of crime is a complex one. Certainly this trend of arresting people crimes only to immediately rerelease them is probably not the best idea.

I have no problem with doing it - once. For low level non-violent crimes.

But there needs to be some mechanism where if you commit a crime while out on bail, there is no bail.

 

[SuperMatt]

It turns out that progressives actually did quite well in the California primaries.

It Suddenly Doesn’t Seem Like Californians Rejected Criminal Justice Reformers

Some journalists and pundits offered snap assessments of last week’s election and all but declared reform movements dead — but the reality is much more complicated.

www.huffpost.com

How it started:

With only a fraction of the votes counted in California’s low-turnout, off-year primary elections, The New York Times confidently declared last Wednesday What It All Meant: voters had rejected progressives and their vision of criminal justice reform in favor of tough-on-crime candidates.

“Election results in San Francisco and Los Angeles were the latest signs of a restless Democratic electorate that remains deeply unsatisfied and concerned about public safety,” the subhed of the Times’ story read, referring to the recall of San Francisco’s progressive District Attorney Chesa Boudin and the early lead of billionaire Los Angeles mayoral candidate Rick Caruso.

Heiress Nellie Bowles, the descendant of a California land baron, took it a step further, claiming that San Francisco had become a “failed city” under progressive leaders because they failed to sufficiently criminalize poverty and drug addiction.

How it’s going:

And by the following week, with more mail-in ballots counted, the notion that California voters had resoundingly embraced a more carceral approach to governance started to fall apart. This wasn’t surprising in a state where every registered voter receives a mail-in ballot. People who vote by mail tend to lean progressive and because they have until Election Day to put their ballot in the mail, many of their votes will not be counted until days or even weeks later. County election officials have until July 8 to report official results to the Secretary of State.


In Los Angeles, the state’s most populous county, Caruso is now in second place, behind the more progressive Karen Bass, despite spending $39 million of his own fortune. Caruso, a longtime Republican who recently became a Democrat, campaigned on hiring an additional 1,500 police officers to the country’s most lethal law enforcement agency and forcibly removing people from homeless encampments. Although Bass also called for a much more modest increase to LAPD staffing, she promised to fund programs to help people find jobs, housing, food and transportation, warning, “Los Angeles cannot arrest its way out of crime.” Under California’s top-two primary system, Caruso and Bass will compete in a runoff election in November.

Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva, who oversees a law enforcement agency overrun with deputy gangs, currently has less than 32% of the vote, leaving him vulnerable in the runoff if his challengers unite behind a single candidate. Villanueva unexpectedly ousted the incumbent sheriff in 2018 by portraying himself as a progressive, but once in office he worked to cover up misconduct within his agency, pushed a recall of reformist District Attorney George Gascón, and railed against the “woke left.” Although several of Villanueva’s eight challengers have positioned themselves as reform-minded, many activists remain skeptical and have been wary of throwing their weight behind anything other than getting rid of Villanueva.

This seems to be a confluence of two factors, IMO.

1. Everybody wants to know the winner ASAP.
2. Media outlets know this and want to get the results out fast, and then write “analysis” immediately.

Can this be fixed?

#1 - The 21st-century desire for instant gratification; not sure how this could be fixed.
#2 - Media outlets could acknowledge that these are just early returns and not make a bunch of prognostications that turn out to be fallacious.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

It turns out that progressives actually did quite well in the California primaries.

It Suddenly Doesn’t Seem Like Californians Rejected Criminal Justice Reformers

Some journalists and pundits offered snap assessments of last week’s election and all but declared reform movements dead — but the reality is much more complicated.

www.huffpost.com

How it started:



How it’s going:



This seems to be a confluence of two factors, IMO.

1. Everybody wants to know the winner ASAP.
2. Media outlets know this and want to get the results out fast, and then write “analysis” immediately.

Can this be fixed?

#1 - The 21st-century desire for instant gratification; not sure how this could be fixed.
#2 - Media outlets could acknowledge that these are just early returns and not make a bunch of prognostications that turn out to be fallacious.

Also the media is quick to condemn anything progressive or take one of many progressive values and use it to condemn the entire progressive value system.

 

[SuperMatt]

Also the media is quick to condemn anything progressive or take one of many progressive values and use it to condemn the entire progressive value system.

Agreed. It always amuses me when critics from the right-wing accuse the media of being left-biased. They tend to treat progressives about the same as they treat the farther right conservatives.

 

[Eric]

Two updates here:

First, excellent news, this guy was worthless.

Chesa Boudin says he won’t run this year to be D.A. in S.F. again

Former San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin said would not run for reelection this year, saying he would instead take time with his family.

www.sfchronicle.com

Second, new DA isn't messing around.

Targeting fentanyl dealers, new S.F. D.A. to revoke plea offers in drug crimes made under Boudin

San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins is pulling back over 30 plea deal offers she deemed too lenient for defendants accused of selling fentanyl.

www.sfchronicle.com

This is the kind of thing they've been letting people get away with.

"one case involved a defendant arrested carrying more than 100 grams of fentanyl who had previously been referred to a community justice court — a diversion program — five times for separate, open cases. This person was initially offered to plead guilty to a single misdemeanor conviction to settle all six cases"