Weather

Alli

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It varies, but in the south, peak tornado season is usually March to June. But they can and do occur in other months, especially November to December.
You’re only a few hours north of me. We both get them whenever the storm gods feel like it. Our worst have been in December.
 

AG_PhamD

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TORNADO WATCH! THE SEASON OF FEAR HAS BEGUN!

I’m very happy I live in New England and do not really have to worry about tornados. The videos are truly terrifying. Massachusetts had some back 2011 that were quite destructive. Before that, the last big tornado that caused extensive damage that I’m aware of was in CT/MA in the late 70’s at the airport/national guard base that is now Bradley International Airport, damaging a lot of aircraft.

This is the 2011 Tornado over Springfield, MA. This looks like something out of a movie and that should not be possible.


I remember this day because I was about 15 miles away at my relatives house in CT.
 

lizkat

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Translation of our local snowfall forecast: the Catskills are either gonna get hammered again after the weekend, or else just a dusting. At the moment we're expecting a 16-inch dump Monday into Tuesday. This after a little warmup 3-inch gift tomorrow night.

The long term [Sunday through Wednesday]is looking to start off interesting early next week. There is a potent shortwave descending out of the northern plains into the Great Lakes at the same time that a southern shortwave ejects from the SW US. The southern wave will be able to pull some gulf moisture northwards as it phases with the northern wave Monday.

A coupled jet will also help in overall synoptic lift that supports a rapidly deepening surface low along the east coast.

While confidence is high that there will be a strong low, there is still uncertainty in where the surface low develops and moves.

Models: The Euro wants to slow down the low as it occludes which brings widespread significant snowfall to much of the interior northeast. Though if the low is able to stay somewhat progressive and keep an easterly movement as it deepens and occludes, then overall snow totals would be less, though some areas likely still getting near warning criteria. Overnight EPS ensemble low locations were almost all east of the deterministic run of the ECMWF but many did have the surface low slowing and occluding just off the coast which usually means there will be a swath of heavy snow somewhere in the northeast, exactly where is unknown.

Much of next week is looking cool with northerly flow behind the departing low. 850 mb temperatures as of now based on ensemble spreads show that there is a low chance that the 850 mb temperature falls below -10c, so while it will be cold, lake effect is not too much of a concern right now into late next week.

Either way, whatever falls out of the sky will land on glaciers and drifts from the recent 10" snow dump. The problem with late winter storms is that the moisture content makes the stuff set up like concrete mix, so plow crews must roll out more often per storm or risk not being able to move the stuff. Also means we get to skip dance workouts and substitute clearing away of snow from our back doors three or four times a day else hope our cupboards can take the hit of being snowbound.

At least whatever this storm delivers will not tack onto sixteen FEET of snowfall already on the ground, as some have experienced out in California.

 

Chew Toy McCoy

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I live in the South Bay of Silicon Valley. My power went out yesterday around noon and the estimate for it to come back on is 10 PM Friday. I try to tell myself people have had it lot worse in this winter in CA, but that's a pretty obnoxious time frame living in the middle of a major city....4 days no power.

What makes it more annoying is the power outages are spread out randomly. You can drive down the same street and every other block either has power or doesn't. I live in a pretty central part of our neighborhood and one block from us has power and every block north of it. Our block and south of it no power....until you hit the next major street and that street has power. It feels like living on the wrong side of the tracks, but I guess it's nice to have options you can go to that still have power but you better call ahead to check.
 

Eric

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I live in the South Bay of Silicon Valley. My power went out yesterday around noon and the estimate for it to come back on is 10 PM Friday. I try to tell myself people have had it lot worse in this winter in CA, but that's a pretty obnoxious time frame living in the middle of a major city....4 days no power.

What makes it more annoying is the power outages are spread out randomly. You can drive down the same street and every other block either has power or doesn't. I live in a pretty central part of our neighborhood and one block from us has power and every block north of it. Our block and south of it no power....until you hit the next major street and that street has power. It feels like living on the wrong side of the tracks, but I guess it's nice to have options you can go to that still have power but you better call ahead to check.
During the last storm I was at my buddy's in Daly City and he lost power for a couple of days, it sucks for sure man, can't imagine 4 days... by day 2 they were heading for a hotel.
 

Yoused

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Meanwhile, here in lazy-person country, we are getting proper spring. There will be no more snow this year, at least not for about 8 months, below ~4000' anyway. The prognosvicators are suggesting we will hit 60°F by the weekend. And probably no tornados – we get one every decade or so (there was one touched down and plowed up a house about 3 miles from us, but that was at least 20 years ago).
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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During the last storm I was at my buddy's in Daly City and he lost power for a couple of days, it sucks for sure man, can't imagine 4 days... by day 2 they were heading for a hotel.

Unfortunately I don't really have hotel money to play with at the moment. I also have 3 reptiles that don't exactly do well in below normal room temperatures. Luckily we have power at work and I brought Butters in her carrying case similar to what people carry small dogs in. On my way home I'm going to get a couple plastic totes from Home Depot to make some temp enclosures I can bring my other 2 smaller lizards to work in. I'm a little concerned about the crested gecko because they aren't known for doing well in wild temperature fluctuations.
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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I live in the South Bay of Silicon Valley. My power went out yesterday around noon and the estimate for it to come back on is 10 PM Friday. I try to tell myself people have had it lot worse in this winter in CA, but that's a pretty obnoxious time frame living in the middle of a major city....4 days no power.

What makes it more annoying is the power outages are spread out randomly. You can drive down the same street and every other block either has power or doesn't. I live in a pretty central part of our neighborhood and one block from us has power and every block north of it. Our block and south of it no power....until you hit the next major street and that street has power. It feels like living on the wrong side of the tracks, but I guess it's nice to have options you can go to that still have power but you better call ahead to check.

Scratch that. Saturday 10 PM. 5 days with no power estimated.

Yesterday I went and ran some errands after work. Blocks from where I live full power, no hint of any power outages. There was even a band doing sound check outside a restaurant for a party that night. Get back home and dead dark silence. It really boggles my mind being blocks away from that and power throughout the city while I have to deal with 5 days of no power (estimated). There's nothing exceptional about my neighborhood. Flat land like every other neighborhood surrounding it. No more or less trees to cause an issue. I don't get it.
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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You know what's more infuriating than being told your power is predicted to be out for 5 days? When it goes back on 3 days into that...for about 8 hours and then shuts off again and the predicted time to get it back up again returns to that original 5 day estimate. Fuck! :mad: How do you fuck that one up? I wonder how many people went grocery shopping because it was back up only to have to throw their food out again.
 

Eric

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You know what's more infuriating than being told your power is predicted to be out for 5 days? When it goes back on 3 days into that...for about 8 hours and then shuts off again and the predicted time to get it back up again returns to that original 5 day estimate. Fuck! :mad: How do you fuck that one up? I wonder how many people went grocery shopping because it was back up only to have to throw their food out again.
Just came into this thread to see how that was going but it looks like not so good? How about today?
 

Herdfan

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You know what's more infuriating than being told your power is predicted to be out for 5 days? When it goes back on 3 days into that...for about 8 hours and then shuts off again and the predicted time to get it back up again returns to that original 5 day estimate. Fuck! :mad: How do you fuck that one up? I wonder how many people went grocery shopping because it was back up only to have to throw their food out again.

This happened to us back in 2012 when a derecho came through. It hit June 29th when temps were in the mid 90's with high humidity.

So power went out on Friday evening and they gave us an estimate of the next Saturday. So 8 days. Power came back on Tuesday and our neighbor went to the store and bought a bunch of groceries and by the time she got home, the power was out again. She took them back and they refunded her money. It finally came back on for good on Thursday. So better than expected.
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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This happened to us back in 2012 when a derecho came through. It hit June 29th when temps were in the mid 90's with high humidity.

So power went out on Friday evening and they gave us an estimate of the next Saturday. So 8 days. Power came back on Tuesday and our neighbor went to the store and bought a bunch of groceries and by the time she got home, the power was out again. She took them back and they refunded her money. It finally came back on for good on Thursday. So better than expected.

Honestly when they estimated the date I thought it would be sooner so they’d seem like heroes over delivering.

There are 2 frames of mind (generally)

Sales - over promise and when things predictably fail blame everybody else.

Logistics - under promise based on historical experience but then more times than not over deliver when those speed bumps don’t happen.

I have a logistics mind which I think statistically leads to a more satisfying outcome. Unfortunately logistics is often the scapegoat of sales.
 

Herdfan

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Around here, outages are using because something fell on a line. And that is easily fixed.

But when you start losing transformers and switching equipment, it is not so easy. Especially of they don't have one on hand and it might have to come a ways on a truck.
 

Yoused

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Here, we have been getting 60° spring-like weather for most of a week so far. Oddly, there seems to be a major deficit of things aloft. When it gets like this, one normally expects the air to be teeming with many tiny flying objects, along with the feathered critters that chase the little things. They are, disturbingly, not in evidence.
 
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