Aviation Talk

[Huntn]

It does not have to be all about crashes, yet…
Not the first time a 737 noses over and flies straight into the ground. That was before the Super-Max fiasco, when on several occasions they experienced rudder hard overs.

Footage shows moment China Eastern Boeing 737 nosedives before fiery crash

Footage has captured the apparent moment a China Eastern Boeing 737 that was carrying 132 people fell from the sky and erupted into flames in southern China.

nypost.com

 

[Roller]

The rudder issues were on previous 737 generations. It'll be some time before the cause of this crash is determined, if ever — I wonder about the condition of the FDR and CVR after a crash like this. It's horrible for the people who died and their families/friends, but it strikes me that during the pandemic we've lost as many as 30x that number in just one day in the United States alone.

 

[Huntn]

Loss of life is always tragedy, but that was not my focus which was a 737, nosing over and flying straight into the ground. Yes, it was previous generations of 737s, but it seems like for this aircraft, it’s not in the past so it will be interesting to see that the determined cause is.

 

[Herdfan]

I wonder about the condition of the FDR and CVR after a crash like this.

it will be interesting to see that the determined cause is.

I wonder why the FDR and CVR can't broadcast in real time to ground stations. Every time there is a crash like this, they have to hunt for these. Wouldn't it be nice if the data was just sitting on a server somewhere?

 

[AG_PhamD]

It does not have to be all about crashes, yet…
Not the first time a 737 noses over and flies straight into the ground. That was before the Super-Max fiasco, when on several occasions they experienced rudder hard overs.

Footage shows moment China Eastern Boeing 737 nosedives before fiery crash

Footage has captured the apparent moment a China Eastern Boeing 737 that was carrying 132 people fell from the sky and erupted into flames in southern China.

nypost.com

Tragic loss. My condolences to all those affected.

I’m not a pilot so you know more way more about this stuff than I do, but I do have a hobby (perhaps a little morbid) of learning about aircraft major faults/crashes/investigations.

From what I understand the most likely mechanical issue would be a flight control issue such as a rudder hard over or failure of the horizontal stabilizer/elevator mechanization. Given the track record of the 737-800, the cause would likely be a maintenance issue. That said, mfg errors can occur with replacement parts.

Other possibilities could be an emergency decent that never stopped for whatever reason, but the trajectory apparently was too fast and steep for a correctly executed emergency descent. Another idea I’ve heard thrown out is failure of the de-icing system leading to a stall.

And then there’s the chance this was done intentionally, either by the pilots or terrorists. I think the latter is unlikely given modern cockpit protections and the pilots or cabin crew or even passengers if they had internet would have informed someone… kinda difficult to hijack a plane so quickly. If this was an intentional act, this will inevitably become very messy as historically countries do not like to admit this.

Given most large commercial airliners seem have satellite communications already, it seems high time to start beaming back cockpit audio and at the very least basic flight data in real time. I’m well aware of satellite communications are far from 100% reliable, but it would be helpful in quickly getting a rough idea of what may have happened in such incidents. I suppose it’s rare that the black boxes are never found, like MH370, but it’s not unheard of of black boxes being damaged or the recording stopping well before the crash due to their data connections being severed by fire (or other damage I suppose).

Hopefully the black boxes will be found soon and in tact and we can find out what the cause was.

 

[Huntn]

Tragic loss. My condolences to all those affected.

I’m not a pilot so you know more way more about this stuff than I do, but I do have a hobby (perhaps a little morbid) of learning about aircraft major faults/crashes/investigations.

From what I understand the most likely mechanical issue would be a flight control issue such as a rudder hard over or failure of the horizontal stabilizer/elevator mechanization. Given the track record of the 737-800, the cause would likely be a maintenance issue. That said, mfg errors can occur with replacement parts.

Other possibilities could be an emergency decent that never stopped for whatever reason, but the trajectory apparently was too fast and steep for a correctly executed emergency descent. Another idea I’ve heard thrown out is failure of the de-icing system leading to a stall.

And then there’s the chance this was done intentionally, either by the pilots or terrorists. I think the latter is unlikely given modern cockpit protections and the pilots or cabin crew or even passengers if they had internet would have informed someone… kinda difficult to hijack a plane so quickly. If this was an intentional act, this will inevitably become very messy as historically countries do not like to admit this.

Given most large commercial airliners seem have satellite communications already, it seems high time to start beaming back cockpit audio and at the very least basic flight data in real time. I’m well aware of satellite communications are far from 100% reliable, but it would be helpful in quickly getting a rough idea of what may have happened in such incidents. I suppose it’s rare that the black boxes are never found, like MH370, but it’s not unheard of of black boxes being damaged or the recording stopping well before the crash due to their data connections being severed by fire (or other damage I suppose).

Hopefully the black boxes will be found soon and in tact and we can find out what the cause was.

Good points, I had completely spaced on the possibility of a suicidal pilot at the controls.

 

[AG_PhamD]

Good points, I had completely spaced on the possibility of a suicidal pilot at the controls.

Chinese authorities apparently have located one of the black boxes. The media reports say it’s “believed to be”the CVR though there seems to be some question about that. Apparently it is “severely damaged”. Given the planes was only 7 years old it’s expected the black boxes use solid state memory, which may provide a better chance of recovering the data.

 

[Roller]

The impact crater is apparently 100 feet wide and 66 feet deep. For the passengers' and crews' sake, I hope they lost consciousness quickly during the descent, which may have reached 700 MPH. One unusual aspect is that the aircraft climbed briefly. That could support the theory of a suicidal dive where the pilot and co-pilot were struggling for control, but it's far too early to say what happened.

 

[AG_PhamD]

@Huntn weird there has been essentially zero news on this since the finding of the second black box. You’d think there would be some sort of comment by now.

China Eastern has reportedly started flying the 737-800’s they had previously grounded after the crash.

 

[Roller]

@Huntn weird there has been essentially zero news on this since the finding of the second black box. You’d think there would be some sort of comment by now.

China Eastern has reportedly started flying the 737-800’s they had previously grounded after the crash.

I'm not that surprised. I wouldn't expect a lot of information if what the Chinese investigators learned put their country or airline in a bad light, for example if this was an instance of pilot suicide.

 

[Roller]

A couple days ago, the Civil Aviation Administration of China held a press conference and announced that a preliminary report has been provided to the International Civil Aviation Organization, as required. They have not made the report public. At the press conference, the investigators also said that the CVR and FDR were heavily damaged, not surprising given the circumstances. Both were sent to the NTSB in Washington, DC, where attempts are being made to retrieve information from them.

The fact that the airline has resumed flying the B 737-800 suggests a non-systemic issue such as pilot action, whether unintentional or intentional. But we may never know.

 

[AG_PhamD]

A couple days ago, the Civil Aviation Administration of China held a press conference and announced that a preliminary report has been provided to the International Civil Aviation Organization, as required. They have not made the report public. At the press conference, the investigators also said that the CVR and FDR were heavily damaged, not surprising given the circumstances. Both were sent to the NTSB in Washington, DC, where attempts are being made to retrieve information from them.

The fact that the airline has resumed flying the B 737-800 suggests a non-systemic issue such as pilot action, whether unintentional or intentional. But we may never know.

They are saying the black boxes are extremely damaged and can’t readily obtain the data. I find this a bit suspicious as black boxes are designed to survive the most extreme circumstances. If they are indeed that damaged I’m curious if technologies exist to somehow pull the data. I know they have some extremely specialized techniques for damaged tapes, but I imagine a plane this new was not using tapes. There is also a 3rd “black box” of sorts called a Quick Access Recorder in the cockpit, usually used for general servicing, but it’s not designed to withstand shock, fire, water, etc. That’s probably destroyed but who knows.

I can say in instances of pilot murder-suicide, countries- particularly developing nations, are always EXTREMELY cagey about allowing such a narrative. Given the flight trajectory this is a possibility.

I’ll say it again, given all the communications equipment jetliners have, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to continuously or near continuously send black box info to the cloud. MH30 should have made that clear.

 

[AG_PhamD]

‘Someone in cockpit’ behind China Eastern plane crash: Report

Boeing 737-800 plunged inexplicably from cruising altitude into the ground in March, killing all 132 people on board.

www.aljazeera.com

Reportedly the NTSB internally believes that “someone in the cockpit” deliberately crashed the China Eastern flight. China evidently has censored this story.

If history is to repeat itself with developing authoritarian countries, China will blame the crash on a fault with the plane and claim the US is trying to defend Boeing.

Other sources suggest the first officer of the flight had been demoted from Captain and flight check captain, a prestigious position. He also had over 32,000 hours of flying which is a phenomenal amount of hours. It’s presumed he was demoted, along with other pilots, for protesting decreased salaries and working conditions after a merger with another airline. His emotional distress from demotion after an illustrious career and the emotional distress of having his salary decreased could have been a motive.

Of course, that is all circumstantial and I don’t want to accuse a pilot of murder without evidence.

 

[Herdfan]

Reportedly the NTSB internally believes that “someone in the cockpit” deliberately crashed the China Eastern flight. China evidently has censored this story.

If history is to repeat itself with developing authoritarian countries, China will blame the crash on a fault with the plane and claim the US is trying to defend Boeing.

Then perhaps Boeing & Airbus should stop selling planes to Chinese airlines. Let China build their own planes and see how well it works out for them.

 

[Roller]

Then perhaps Boeing & Airbus should stop selling planes to Chinese airlines. Let China build their own planes and see how well it works out for them.

I wouldn't discount that possibility. China does have a growing domestic airliner industry, even if some of it is based on stolen IP. As well, Boeing and Airbus will do what they feel is best for their shareholders, no matter what China says about this incident. Heck, Apple and Samsung continued to do business even during their protracted lawsuit.

 

[AG_PhamD]

I wouldn't discount that possibility. China does have a growing domestic airliner industry, even if some of it is based on stolen IP. As well, Boeing and Airbus will do what they feel is best for their shareholders, no matter what China says about this incident. Heck, Apple and Samsung continued to do business even during their protracted lawsuit.

They certainly do, at least in the west. I kind of doubt US and Europe will allow China into their markets and airspace, especially considering the stolen IP. But China could definitely dominate other parts of the world.

The ARJ-21 is largely based off the MD-80/MD-90 aka DC-9 aka Boeing 717. That airframe will not die.

But as with the ARJ-21 and COMAC C-919, pretty much all the important systems like avionics, flight control, landing gear, engines, etc come from western manufacturers. China is trying to make an indigenous engine but are many years away from that happening. Russia and China are working on the CRIAC C-929 joint project which I suspect will run into some problems due to Russian sanctions. Again, it’s original design was to use GE or Rolls Royce engines and onboard systems from the west.

In effect it’s a domestically made fuselage and wings. All the other major technical components are coming from elsewhere.

That said, I expect China has the money to build out a parts and repair system. Unlike Sukhoi’s disastrous attempt to market the SuperJet 100 internationally.

 

[Roller]

On a more positive note, a pilot in Poland flew a route that spelled out "Make beer, not war" with a heart at the end. I'll give him a pass for not including the comma, which would have been difficult.

Make beer, not war: Polish pilot’s timely message | Flightradar24 Blog

Take a closer look at Make beer, not war: Polish pilot’s timely message, learn more about flight tracking and get the latest aviation news with Flightradar24.

www.flightradar24.com