Russia-Ukraine

[Eric]

Russian forces have made a quick withdrawal across the river in northern Kherson Obvlast with Ukrainian forces entering Kherson....another major success for Ukraine

This great news overall and a good boost for Ukraine. Sadly, Russia (Putin) is still indiscriminately bombing populated areas and killing civilians. It's one thing to fight a war and another to just kill the innocent to be a senseless murderer, Putin deserves nothing less than to die a horrible death.

 

[Cmaier]

Things about to get more dangerous. Russian missile crossed the border into poland and killed two people, reportedly.

 

[shadow puppet]

Damn. This does not sound good.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1592593586948050944/

Polish media reported that two people died Tuesday afternoon after a projectile struck an area where grain was drying in Przewodów, a Polish village near the border with Ukraine.

Military Daily News

Daily updates of everything that you need know about what is going on in the military community and abroad including military gear and equipment, breaking news, international news and more.

www.military.com

 

[Cmaier]

Damn. This does not sound good.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1592593586948050944/

Polish media reported that two people died Tuesday afternoon after a projectile struck an area where grain was drying in Przewodów, a Polish village near the border with Ukraine.

Military Daily News

Daily updates of everything that you need know about what is going on in the military community and abroad including military gear and equipment, breaking news, international news and more.

www.military.com

I wouldn’t bet they “missed their targets.”

 

[Eric]

There was no mistake, they will continue to encroach until they are stopped.

 

[Cmaier]

There was no mistake, they will continue to encroach until they are stopped.

I’ll withhold judgment for a bit - a grain processing plant could blow up for lots of reasons, and I’m not sure they’ve absolutely determined it’s missiles yet

 

[Pumbaa]

I wouldn’t bet they “missed their targets.”

Well… Given the competence exhibited by the russian military and the use of soviet era equipment, that would be believable.

Intentionally striking Poland at this point would be more like playing 4D chess.

 

[AG_PhamD]

Damn. This does not sound good.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1592593586948050944/

Polish media reported that two people died Tuesday afternoon after a projectile struck an area where grain was drying in Przewodów, a Polish village near the border with Ukraine.

Military Daily News

Daily updates of everything that you need know about what is going on in the military community and abroad including military gear and equipment, breaking news, international news and more.

www.military.com

Not a good situation.

I suppose there is a small possibility they are Ukrainian air defenses gone awry, but in that the US confirmed they are Russian likely either means they were confirmed on the ground as Russian or tracked on radar.

I wouldn’t bet they “missed their targets.”

In the interest of unnecessary escalation, wouldn’t assume they were intentionally launched into Poland. I’m not sure there is a good justification for Russia doing so. They could have had a guidance problem or were mislead with GPS/GLONAS spoofing. If they were relying on inertial navigation, the margin of error can become quite significant, especially if they had a problem. Many of Russia’s missiles have been off-target.

Regardless, it was only a matter of time before this was going to happen. I’m sure Russia will deny it. This is an extremely dangerous road to go down, especially now that civilians have been killed. I’d hope this will make Russia reconsider their actions. But I doubt it.

 

[Cmaier]

Well… Given the competence exhibited by the russian military and the use of soviet era equipment, that would be believable.

Intentionally striking Poland at this point would be more like playing 4D chess.

I think the most likely scenario is “intentional accident.” Aim in that vicinity and don’t worry about whether the missiles hit poland, just to see what NATO does. Push the boundaries a little bit at a time. Next time intentionally hit supplies destined to support ukraine, etc., if NATO does nothing this time.

 

[Eric]

I’ll withhold judgment for a bit - a grain processing plant could blow up for lots of reasons, and I’m not sure they’ve absolutely determined it’s missiles yet

Russia will (if they haven't yet) say it was an accident, just like bombing schools with children, or saying they weren't about to start the war. They deceive and manipulate.

 

[Macky-Mac]

Russia will (if they haven't yet) say it was an accident, just like bombing schools with children, or saying they weren't about to start the war. They deceive and manipulate.

they've already said "it's not ours".......but looking at a map it's quite possible that it was intended for some target near the city of Lviv in Ukraine.

If Russia is hoping that NATO will lose interest, an intentional targeting of Poland would but (yet another) stupid move

 

[shadow puppet]

they've already said "it's not ours".......

Sure did.

Russia's defence ministry denies Russian missiles struck Polish territory

Russia's defence ministry on Tuesday denied reports that Russian missiles had hit Polish territory, describing them as "a deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation".

www.reuters.com

 

[AG_PhamD]

Russia has already had surveillance drones crash in Poland. But 2 missiles and 2 civilian deaths is a whole new realm. I would assume this was an accident but the timing during G20 is a little suspect.

I suspect Poland and NATO will not be looking to escalate things with direct military involvement. But I would not be surprised to see more indirect military support. Perhaps all those Mig-29’s that the US didn’t want transferred might be finding their way into Ukrainian hands. It would be nice if Poland/NATO sent a couple hundred cruise missiles Russias way though as a one time show of force. Not going to happen though.

 

[Nycturne]

It would be nice if Poland/NATO sent a couple hundred cruise missiles Russias way though as a one time show of force. Not going to happen though.

Probably not, but I would be tempted by the idea of a single strike against just the site responsible for the missiles that crossed the border. Very much: "I know what you did, and from where, and it won't be doing that again anytime soon, so knock it off."

 

[AG_PhamD]

I’m confused with some of the reports saying rockets or missiles/rockets. Rockets implies a lack of guidance system (as opposed to missiles which do) and would have a very short range.

 

[Eric]

Russia has already had surveillance drones crash in Poland. But 2 missiles and 2 civilian deaths is a whole new realm. I would assume this was an accident but the timing during G20 is a little suspect.

I suspect Poland and NATO will not be looking to escalate things with direct military involvement. But I would not be surprised to see more indirect military support. Perhaps all those Mig-29’s that the US didn’t want transferred might be finding their way into Ukrainian hands. It would be nice if Poland/NATO sent a couple hundred cruise missiles Russias way though as a one time show of force. Not going to happen though.

Dumb move on their part, Poland is already sounding the alarms and rightfully so. Intentional or not you can never believe what Russia says and the fact that they're indiscriminately bombing everything is no excuse for crossing the line, even accidentally. Seemingly, at this point Russia's only goal outside of knocking out the grid is straight up murder of civilians. Any action taken at this point, especially an escalation from NATO, is justified IMO.

World leaders hold emergency meeting as 'Russian-made' missile kills two in Poland | CNN

World leaders gathering at the G20 summit in Bali are attempting to diffuse a potential escalation in the months-long Ukraine war after a "Russian-made" missile struck NATO-member Poland killing two people.

www.cnn.com

Poland holds emergency security meeting after reports of fatal explosion, as Russian missiles bombard nearby Ukraine​

 

[AG_PhamD]

Probably not, but I would be tempted by the idea of a single strike against just the site responsible for the missiles that crossed the border. Very much: "I know what you did, and from where, and it won't be doing that again anytime soon, so knock it off."

I think that’s the most we’d possibly see, but even that I think is a huge stretch. And chances are whatever launched platform launched the missiles is mobile and has already moved. I’m not sure what long range missile capabilities Poland has, if any. If they lack sufficient long range weapons of their own, then they would have to work with NATO to deliver a response. And if the missile was launched from a submarine, retaliation will be all the more difficult. Not to mention likely to be considered a disproportional response.

 

[Citysnaps]

The US knows exactly what happened. Precisely when/where the missile was launched, its in-flight trajectory, and where it landed, via the SBIRS satellite system (the follow on to the older DSP satellite program). No doubt that information was relayed to NATO partners shortly after the event.

 

[AG_PhamD]

The US knows exactly what happened. Precisely when/where the missile was launched, its in-flight trajectory, and where it landed, via the SBIRS satellite system (the follow on to the older DSP satellite program). No doubt that information was relayed to NATO partners shortly after the event.

We more than likely know where it came from. The Pentagon seemed quick to confirm it was indeed Russian, so I assume they do.

I could be wrong, but SBIRS, at least historically was only able to track ballistic missiles. These missiles that landed in Poland were allegedly cruise missiles, which would fly substantially lower and slower, and be much smaller. They also wouldn’t have the same infrared signature after launch as they’d be powered in flight with a jet engine rather than a rocket. I would not be surprised however if we have some space-based system to track cruise missiles.

If such a system does not exist, or in addition to it if it does, I would imagine our E-3 AWACS would have an eye on them. The internet says they have a range is ~250miles but I think it’s fair to assume it’s likely much greater than that. Otherwise on the Polish side of things they probably wouldn’t be gathering much of info. The F-35 is marked as having a 300mi range on it’s radar for airborne targets and that’s a fraction of the size (granted much newer tech and AESA radar). We’re probably also receiving Ukraine’s radar information, not to mention definitely neighboring NATO partners radar. The military seems to have implied throughout the conflict we have a full view of the airspace above Ukraine (and likely into neighboring parts of Russia)

Some of these radars are so good too that they can identify the target specifically, as in what type of aircraft it is. Not sure if they can do this for individual types of cruise missiles, but again, it wouldn’t surprise me if they could.

People with military or technical experience can correct me.

 

[Citysnaps]

We more than likely know where it came from. The Pentagon seemed quick to confirm it was indeed Russian, so I assume they do.

I could be wrong, but SBIRS, at least historically was only able to track ballistic missiles. These missiles that landed in Poland were allegedly cruise missiles, which would fly substantially lower and slower, and be much smaller. They also wouldn’t have the same infrared signature after launch as they’d be powered in flight with a jet engine rather than a rocket. I would not be surprised however if we have some space-based system to track cruise missiles.

If such a system does not exist, or in addition to it if it does, I would imagine our E-3 AWACS would have an eye on them. The internet says they have a range is ~250miles but I think it’s fair to assume it’s likely much greater than that. Otherwise on the Polish side of things they probably wouldn’t be gathering much of info. The F-35 is marked as having a 300mi range on it’s radar for airborne targets and that’s a fraction of the size (granted much newer tech and AESA radar). We’re probably also receiving Ukraine’s radar information, not to mention definitely neighboring NATO partners radar. The military seems to have implied throughout the conflict we have a full view of the airspace above Ukraine (and likely into neighboring parts of Russia)

Some of these radars are so good too that they can identify the target specifically, as in what type of aircraft it is. Not sure if they can do this for individual types of cruise missiles, but again, it wouldn’t surprise me if they could.

People with military or technical experience can correct me.

We have incredible space assets.