Russia-Ukraine

[Andropov]

Someone on Twitter noticed that Przewodów (where the missiles hit) has the same latitude as Kyiv and the same longitude as Lviv. Could be just a coincidence, but maybe it was caused by human error. Hanlon's razor may apply here.

 

[Renzatic]

Someone on Twitter noticed that Przewodów (where the missiles hit) has the same latitude as Kyiv and the same longitude as Lviv. Could be just a coincidence, but maybe it was caused by human error. Hanlon's razor may apply here.

I doubt very seriously that Russia would purposefully strike a NATO country. What matters now is how Putin reacts to the pressure the west will be applying after this impossible to ignore mistake.

If he issues a formal apology, takes a couple of lumps, then lets an underling face a firing squad to save face, things will probably carry on as usual. If not…

 

[Cmaier]

After emergency G7 meeting, Biden says there’s “plenty of information to contest” the idea that the missile was fired from Russia. He says it’s “unlikely...that it was fired from Russia.”

“We are going to figure out exactly what happened,” he adds.

———

Maybe fired from belarus or occupied ukraine territory? Hard to know what this means yet.

 

[AG_PhamD]

Someone on Twitter noticed that Przewodów (where the missiles hit) has the same latitude as Kyiv and the same longitude as Lviv. Could be just a coincidence, but maybe it was caused by human error. Hanlon's razor may apply here.

That’s a good find. I was wondering if there were any such obvious coordinate mistakes that could explain where it landed.

In addition to the other potential reasons I listed- GLONASS spoofing, crappy inertial guidance/ other inherent guidance failures, etc, I suppose it’s also possible they were slightly damaged in interception and kept flying.

I can’t see a good reason for Russia to want to instigate things further with NATO. Especially when they’re performing this poorly.

Plus you have a bunch of poorly maintained weaponry of questionable build quality (esp if this is Iranian or NK stuff), run by a bunch very possibly poorly trained, underpaid/unpaid, exhausted, hungry, improperly equipped Russian soldiers that don’t want to be there. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[Renzatic]

Maybe fired from belarus or occupied ukraine territory? Hard to know what this means yet.

If the missiles trajectory is traced to occupied Ukrainian territory, then it’d be considered an attack by Russia. If it wasn’t, then this situation is about to get considerably more complicated.

At the most extreme interpretation of events, a Ukrainian false flag attack meant to draw NATO into the war would be awkward for everyone involved.

 

[Cmaier]

If the missiles trajectory is traced to occupied Ukrainian territory, then it’d be considered an attack by Russia. If it wasn’t, then this situation is about to get considerably more complicated.

At the most extreme interpretation of events, a Ukrainian false flag attack meant to draw NATO into the war would be awkward for everyone involved.

Well, Biden said it wasn’t “fired from russia.” Doesn’t mean Russians didn’t fire it.

 

[Citysnaps]

Well, Biden said it wasn’t “fired from russia.” Doesn’t mean Russians didn’t fire it.

Black Sea?

 

[lizkat]

Seems like political and military leaders in the West are attempting not to escalate or to involve NATO over this incident. But there could be a kind of sotto voce "this time, anyway..." addendum to that agreement.

 

[Yoused]

The debris seems to suggest a Kh-555 type subsonic cruise missle, which is exclusively air-launched and has a 1300knot range. Thus, it could have come from a plane out of Sevastopol flying over the Black Sea ("not Russia").

 

[Cmaier]

The debris seems to suggest a Kh-555 type subsonic cruise missle, which is exclusively air-launched and has a 1300knot range. Thus, it could have come from a plane out of Sevastopol flying over the Black Sea ("not Russia").

Looks like these were Ukrainian air defense missiles.

 

[Eric]

Looks like these were Ukrainian air defense missiles.

In response to Russia's bombardment, this response is appropriate.

MSN

NATO says Russia remains responsible for the fatal missile strike in Poland likely caused by Ukrainian air defense​

• "Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine," NATO's head said.

 

[AG_PhamD]

I guess my initial inkling of the possibility of this being an air defense missile was correct. Pretty shocking that not one, but two ended up in Poland.

I’m not sure I understand how the Ukrainians didn’t realize this was the case pretty quickly. Surely they would have been tracking their own missile. Plus, I would have figured the Polish could quickly identify the missile as belonging to the S-300. These missiles don’t have a particularly long range and there’s no way one could have made it from anywhere in the Russian occupied territory, Black Sea, or Russia proper. Belarus I suppose maybe have been possible but I imagine likely at the edge of its range. Or perhaps the powers didn’t mind 12 or so hours of confusion to tank the Russian stock market and rally support for Ukraine and NATO.

Russia still clearly bears responsibility for this tragedy. Ukraine wouldn’t be firing surface-to-air missiles if they weren’t being bombarded by Russia.

I hope this encourages Ukraine’s partner nations to step up the air defense system transfers. This entire war the Western support has been there, but it seems the supplies are often just enough as necessary and only are decided to be given in response to some problem after the fact.

I can appreciate all the complexities of supplying weapons in these circumstances. But Ukraine has time and time again shown their abilities- as has Russia. But so many times I hear we’re giving everything we possibly can, only for a month or two later for the Pentagon to whip out some retired system that evidently has been in sitting in storage for 25 years.

The fact of the matter is Ukraine has been grinding down the Russian military. And we’re not putting any NATO troops at risk. Between the tens of thousands being killed and maimed, and the hundreds of thousands young Russian men (esp educated ones) who have fled their country, Putin has single-handedly destroyed a generation of child bearing men- which will have lasting repercussions. And their population pyramid was already inverted before the war.

We spent 20 years and $2.3 trillion in Afghanistan only to accomplish very little in the end. For $100-150B? over 2-3 years, sacrificing no US soldiers, we’ll likely ensure the downfall of Russia, one of our greatest strategic threats, for decades to come- if not indefinitely. Yes gas is expensive, that will work itself eventually, but this is probably the best value war ever dollar for dollar.

 

[Yoused]

Big fire in central Moscow, in an area with major rail hubs

Moscow fire videos show smoke billowing around key train stations

A fire broke out in a two-story warehouse in the Russian capital's Komsomolskaya Square, Russian authorities said.

www.newsweek.com

At the same time as a minor pipeline issue in St. Petersburg

​

 

[Cmaier]

Big fire in central Moscow, in an area with major rail hubs

Moscow fire videos show smoke billowing around key train stations

A fire broke out in a two-story warehouse in the Russian capital's Komsomolskaya Square, Russian authorities said.

www.newsweek.com

At the same time as a minor pipeline issue in St. Petersburg

​

Lies. It’s just someone making s’mores.

 

[Yoused]

Lies. It’s just someone making s’mores.

Hey, I think I see four smaller flames on the right and four more on the left.

 

[lizkat]

EU voted to call Russia a state sponsor of terror. Now its website is down, apparently a victim of retaliation by some bad actors.

 

[Pumbaa]

EU voted to call Russia a state sponsor of terror. Now its website is down, apparently a victim of retaliation by some bad actors.

Sorry for laughing, but calling the EU "sponsors of homosexuality" to counter Russia being proclaimed a state sponsor of terrorism?

Funny on so many levels.

 

[lizkat]

Sorry for laughing, but calling the EU "sponsors of homosexuality" to counter Russia being proclaimed a state sponsor of terrorism?

Funny on so many levels.

What's really (but very grimly) funny is that the EU will have its website back up in a few hours or days, while the Russian Federation's economy, general welfare and standing among peers --yeah even its few remaining friends-- have been flushed down the toilet for years, maybe a decade or more due to Putin's folly in Ukraine.

They're now in recession after two quarters of losses, even though they had done all right at first thanks to increased oil exports and will have ended up with a decent harvest. But their foreign reserves in the west are frozen and they have spent most of the last ten years trying to pull out of an economic decline that wasn't exactly aided by their decision to go after Crimea in 2014. They defaulted on foreign debt last summer for the first time since WWII (even though they were raking in a billion bucks a day off oil sales to pals) so they will have added interest costs if and when they ever seek to borrow abroad again.

Russia's economy is officially in recession

Nine months after its invasion of Ukraine, Russia's economy is steadily shrinking, according to government data.

www.cbsnews.com

Russian debt default: two experts explain what it means for Russia and for global financial markets

Experts discuss the implications of Russia’s recent debt default for the global financial markets and Russia’s reputation

theconversation.com

 

[Yoused]

Is great time for to be Russia billionaire

Billionaire with "enemies in Russia" dies in mysterious helicopter crash

More than a dozen Russian businessmen have died this year, some under mysterious circumstances.

www.newsweek.com

This was in the Nice part of France last week. But at least in tis case it was apparently not defenestration.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Is great time for to be Russia billionaire

Billionaire with "enemies in Russia" dies in mysterious helicopter crash

More than a dozen Russian businessmen have died this year, some under mysterious circumstances.

www.newsweek.com

This was in the Nice part of France last week. But at least in tis case it was apparently not defenestration.

And the "sudden" death (a cardiac arrest apparently) of the foreign minister of Belarus, Mr Vladimir Makei, was reported a few short days ago.

And no, if this was indeed murder most foul (as some sources have suggested), then not one single source - western, Belarusian, or, for that matter, Russian, has thought to lay the blame for this action at the feet of the President of the country, Mr Lukashenko.