Russia-Ukraine

Citysnaps

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dada_dave

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If this is true, infuriating and incomprehensible. Obviously we aren’t party to all the information administration officials have access to nor the basis of their discussions, but from the outside it’s hard to justify:

1695240062870.png
 

Citysnaps

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If this is true, infuriating and incomprehensible. Obviously we aren’t party to all the information administration officials have access to nor the basis of their discussions, but from the outside it’s hard to justify:

View attachment 26031


There are reasons and more to the story.

 

dada_dave

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There are reasons and more to the story.

I’ve seen a lot of people dismiss those arguments. Somebody on Twitter crunched the numbers and we have the capacity to give the Ukrainians a couple hundred ATACMS regardless of PrSM which itself wont really be available in any significant quantities anytime soon. Now I can’t speak to that personally but certainly no one buys the escalation argument anymore, not with StormShadow and ScalpER in theater.

1695241143173.png


The below is an extremely long thread detailing not only the use of ATACMS but its availability:


I’ve not see any one take issue with the analysis presented. But I’m hardly an expert on munitions and their production.

Almost everyone I read on this subject appears to be flabbergasted by the decision making or lack thereof. Some I think are reading too … darkly into it, but even I am at loss as to what the thinking is if the above is accurate.
 

Citysnaps

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I’ve seen a lot of people dismiss those arguments. Somebody on Twitter crunched the numbers and we have the capacity to give the Ukrainians a couple hundred ATACMS regardless of PrSM which itself wont really be available in any significant quantities anytime soon. Now I can’t speak to that personally but certainly no one buys the escalation argument anymore, not with StormShadow and ScalpER in theater.

View attachment 26033

The below is an extremely long thread detailing not only the use of ATACMS but its availability:


I’ve not see any one take issue with the analysis presented. But I’m hardly an expert on munitions and their production.

Almost everyone I read on this subject appears to be flabbergasted by the decision making or lack thereof. Some I think are reading too … darkly into it, but even I am at loss as to what the thinking is if the above is accurate.

That's just it. We're not in a position to accurately assess/evaluate arguments made by social media "experts." If they have/had expertise in that field and demonstrable inside knowledge, well, maybe.

It *feels* (for what it's worth) legit to me at the moment. So I'm leaning that way.
 

dada_dave

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That's just it. We're not in a position to accurately assess/evaluate arguments made by social media "experts." If they have/had expertise in that field and demonstrable inside knowledge, well, maybe.

It *feels* (for what it's worth) legit to me at the moment. So I'm leaning that way.
Multiple journalists who cover defense and former government types seem to believe both the guys I quoted are very reliable in terms of their expertise on this subject. That doesn’t make them necessarily right of course. I get that. But it is frustrating because the administration isn’t really saying why officially - it’s all back channel to reporters with different anonymous sources saying sometimes subtly sometimes wildly different things.
 

Citysnaps

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Multiple journalists who cover defense and former government types seem to believe both the guys I quoted are very reliable in terms of their expertise on this subject. That doesn’t make them necessarily right of course. I get that. But it is frustrating because the administration isn’t really saying why officially - it’s all back channel to reporters with different anonymous sources saying sometimes subtly sometimes wildly different things.

Yeah... and I trust the people who write for The Warzone as they seem to be well-sourced and what they write is eventually corroborated by other sources, and, also because what they've written about in the past that happens to overlap with my career in aerospace, feels legit.
 

dada_dave

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It indeed will be interesting to see what Trump’s stance would be on this if he were to make it back to the White House. His comments have been all over the place regarding the war and what he’d do- other than solving it in 1 day by talking to Putin :rolleyes:. But generally I think at the end of the day the benefits are just so obvious to anyone who thinks about it. Despite the “perfect phone call” Trump was far more supportive of Ukraine militarily than Obama. And for all the speak of Russia collusion, Trump was actually much harsher on Russia than previous admins. Most of the condemnation around Ukraine aid is just the asinine “oppose the policy of the opposing party just for the sake of it” and to draw attention to and exacerbate negative sentiments around domestic problems. Knowing Trump it’s entirely unpredictable. Just look at his recent comments opposing the R’s anti-abortion radicalism.

As for the conclusion “Europe takes the lead”, that smells of misleading statistics. Why would you necessarily compare all/many/most European countries (evidently EU and non-EU) versus the US. That’s an explicit red flag right there. Certainly many of the Eastern European countries have committed a much more significant percentage of the their GDP, such as the Baltic counties. These are low GDP countries to begin with.

I don’t think comparing GDP is necessarily appropriate when you consider the US GDP is 25T while the next biggest is Germany at 3.8T and a country like Lithuania (one of the highest contributors by %GDP) is $70 billion. Secondly, I think it’s fair to say the US’s interest is in protecting Europe from Russian invasion is important, but is something that we should not be taking more seriously than the Europeans. This is particularly frustrating considering that for decades many of our NATO partners in Europe committed well below the agreed upon %GDP for defense… basically expecting the US military to pickup the slack in the event of conflict. [Heck, I’m not sure there has been an explanation why the US shot down that unidentified balloon over Canadian airspace- obviously NORAD is collaborative but I’d expect the local military to take the shot. It’s been suspected it has to do with their ancient and overdue for retirement CF-18 fighter jet’s older-generation radar limitations. Canada’s defenses are also considered to be very much neglected.] It’s also definitely weird when Japan is donating a higher %GDP than a number of wealthy European countries. At least in respect to military aid, it’s tough for much of Europe to provide when most of Europe, especially Western, has let their military investments and readiness dwindle considerably over the past 30+ years.

The other problem here is the timeliness and specific type of military aid. Take Germany for instance- just one example here- holding up transfers of Leopard tanks… not even German-owned tanks but rather 3rd party nations, went on for months and some might say allowed an extended opportunity for Russia to build multiple lines of defense. And even for that to happen the UK and US had to donate what amounts to a completely insignificant of Challanger and Abrams tanks (14 and 31 respectively IIRC) and which if actually used in battle at those numbers will probably just cause more logistical headaches than worth dealing with.

Another factor is the committed aid and actually dispersed aid. In some cases this can differ as the aid is intended over a period. But what’s less clear is (existing) hardware that is committed but never received months and months and months later.

And there should be some context given too that countries who have donate larger %’s of the smaller GDP’s have in some instances been provided stop-gap measures or US replacements by the US for handing soviet era hardware due of its familiarity with Ukrainian operators. I suspect these types of transfers are not adequately accounted. For example, replacing country’s soviet-era given to Ukraine with Patriot systems or providing regular air patrols courtesy of the US Air Force (on behalf of NATO of course).

To be clear, I am not complaining the US has provided too much aid- more so there are some European countries in particular should be doing more. And furthermore, the history of many/most NATO members expecting the US to bankroll NATO defense in Europe while failing to meet their defense spending commitments is just an unacceptable way to conduct oneself in a partnership.
This is all out of date. The European governments have struggled with timely delivery but so has the US. Abrams are only arriving now despite being pledged at the beginning of the year and GLSDB hasn’t arrived at all. NASAMS and Patriots take just as long as IRIS-T to build (and NASAMS are partly European). Yes the Germans have been reluctant to provide new capabilities unless the US also provides them which is frustrating to say the least but they’ve also been the highest volume of aid by far for any European country - even outstripping the UK. And they’ve delivered the systems, it isn’t vapor ware, you can check Oryx or any of the sites that tracks pledges and deliveries. Yes German handwringing delayed things, but so has ours. The EU-nonEU distinction is immaterial to this discussion and really only covers the UK. Calling that a red flag is odd to say the least. Almost all the relevant European countries are EU, including Nordics, Baltics and Eastern/Central Europe, but again is largely irrelevant beyond that some countries have given their aid through EU institutions rather than direct. The above charts are not weighted by GDP, those are total amounts of aid. Normalizing by GDP certainly does make some European countries stand out both good and bad, but again this is about total aid. The only caveat is the one I mentioned in my previous post, which represents both a good and bad point of US vs Europe comparison - good in that it signals plans for long term European support for Ukraine and building that into their budgets, bad in the sense that comparing that to US is difficult as we have only budgeted for the short term but won’t necessarily stop pledging additional funds unless Trump/republicans win. Yes it is appropriate for the Europeans to step up here, but the point of the post is that they are - it’s not that the US should suddenly be ashamed of its meager delivery’s, but rather the notion that Europe is still underperforming relative to the US is no longer true.

The Trump stuff is nonsense. But we’ve already discussed how the aid he gave to Ukraine and the sanctions his administration imposed on Russia were moves forced on him legislatively or by prior commitments or by advisers he’s now specifically cited as “treasonous” (against his interests). It reflects a surface level, post hoc ergo propter hoc, understanding of what happened. There’s a reason the Russians want him back in power so desperately (while mocking what a moron he is), they talk about it endlessly on their propaganda shows. If you still believe that he’s somehow going to “do the right thing” here I’m not going to argue anymore.
 

Citysnaps

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It appears the US is getting closer to sending ATACMS missiles to Ukraine.

Here's an excellent story about ATACMS, its variants, how they work, and when they could be delivered.

 

dada_dave

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It appears the US is getting closer to sending ATACMS missiles to Ukraine.

Here's an excellent story about ATACMS, its variants, how they work, and when they could be delivered.

Hopefully that will also unlock Taurus, but Scholz is being Scholz again.
 

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The Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol was hit by UA missiles some days ago. There is some question as to whether the fleet admiral did or did not survive. Follows a series of xweex texts (with source links).

Argus Gadfly said:
MannekenPisFella said:
Ярослав Трофимов said:
Bunkerhunter (RU warship - go FU) said:
Ярослав Трофимов said:
The commander of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Admiral Sokolov, is very much alive and looking healthy.
(video in post)
The event was 18. Sept. 2023.
Before the attack on 22. Sept. 2023
Sept 27. They mention in the report that the ceremony was supposed to take place Sept 20 but was postponed.
This is inside the Blacks Sea Fleet HQ. I doubt they could hold a ceremony inside it after the strike.
September 27 is TODAY. The video was first released YESTERDAY. Your timeline doesn't work.

Well, yes, Argus, but "released" is the operative word here.
 

dada_dave

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The Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastopol was hit by UA missiles some days ago. There is some question as to whether the fleet admiral did or did not survive. Follows a series of xweex texts (with source links).



Well, yes, Argus, but "released" is the operative word here.
He’s almost certainly alive. Sadly. It’d be hard to hide the death of the commanding officer of an entire fleet for very long so pretending he was okay wouldn’t get very far. Even the Ukrainians have backed off saying he was killed.
 

dada_dave

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In the latest iteration of “they can’t possibly be that fucking stupid” - the Serbians are agitating at the border of Kosovo. They are attacking police stations and the like using state-backed “paramilitary” groups and lining up their regular forces on the border. We may be looking at another conflict about to break out. However KFOR and local NATO command would wipe the fucking floor with them so not clear what they’re hoping to accomplish by going all in. Possibly they’re just saber rattling to get attention but we’ve seen multiple times in the last few years never mind the last couple of decades, if an army is moving into an offensive posture it’s because it’s going to get used.

Thus while I’d like to think that they aren’t THAT stupid, it’s still something to keep an eye on.
 
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dada_dave

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This article is helpful,


I mean, in case you were unclear on this point
You’re kidding! It wasn’t super NATO Ukrainian Nazis with biolabs of genetically altered nuclear mosquitoes threatening to encircle the poor Russians of Russia and also Crimea/Donbas who are also definitely Russian? Not to mention the Nazis’ coke fueled Satanic Jewish Gay Atheist allies. Knock me over with a fucking feather.

Edit: To be clear I’m not mocking the necessity of showing these things to the wider world, quite the opposite. It’s vitally important. Of course, sadly it’ll be ignored or rationalized by the people who have internalized Russian propaganda. But most of those people are probably beyond reach. I mean if someone believes the cavalcade of bull crap the Russians put out and glommed onto the one explanation that fits their world view while ignoring the many and conflicting claims already espoused, then video of the Russians literally saying the actual reason is imperialism is unlikely to change anything or at most met with whataboutism.

We’ve even had one such person on these forums. They aren’t around much anymore as far as I can tell but frankly I don’t think they care about the truth anyway. This isn’t even the first such video or the most blatant or the most highly connected to the government or military. The Russians have been pretty open about it, only occasionally deigning to shamble out the corpse of one of their zombie explanations to put it away again when no longer useful. Flood the zone with shit and let the useful idiots pick which explanation they like the best regardless of whether it makes sense or contradicts any of the other purported reasons. That doesn’t sound familiar to anyone else does it? No wonder MAGA loves Russia.
 
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Altaic

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You’re kidding! It wasn’t super NATO Ukrainian Nazis with biolabs of genetically altered nuclear mosquitoes threatening to encircle the poor Russians of Russia and also Crimea/Donbas who are also definitely Russian? Not to mention the Nazis’ coke fueled Satanic Jewish Gay Atheist allies. Knock me over with a fucking feather.

Edit: To be clear I’m not mocking the necessity of showing these things to the wider world, quite the opposite. It’s vitally important. Of course, sadly it’ll be ignored or rationalized by the people who have internalized Russian propaganda. But most of those people are probably beyond reach. I mean if someone believes the cavalcade of bull crap the Russians put out and glommed onto the one explanation that fits their world view while ignoring the many and conflicting claims already espoused, then video of the Russians literally saying the actual reason is imperialism is unlikely to change anything or at most met with whataboutism.

We’ve even had one such person on these forums. They aren’t around much anymore as far as I can tell but frankly I don’t think they care about the truth anyway. This isn’t even the first such video or the most blatant or the most highly connected to the government or military. The Russians have been pretty open about it, only occasionally deigning to shamble out the corpse of one of their zombie explanations to put it away again when no longer useful. Flood the zone with shit and let the useful idiots pick which explanation they like the best regardless of whether it makes sense or contradicts any of the other purported reasons. That doesn’t sound familiar to anyone else does it? No wonder MAGA loves Russia.
I’m on a trip right now, but I gathered that Putin just ordered his claimed Ukrainian territories to be subject to military draft (effective today or tomorrow). WTH? Pro Putin regions are going to have a wake up call. It’s so idiotic and I’m SMH with shut eyes. If you’re going to be a bad guy then be good at it, right? Amateurs 😒
 
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