Russia-Ukraine

[Eric]

Missile kills at least 50 after hitting crowded Ukrainian train station

At least 50 people died in an attack on a crowd of mostly women and children trying to flee a new, looming Russian offensive in the country’s east.

www.pbs.org

They're committing genocide and the world is sitting idly by and watching, it makes you sad for humanity. Heaven forbid that this last into 2024 but if nothing were to change and a candidate runs on saving these human beings from senselessly being eradicated from the earth, they'll be getting my vote no matter what party they're in.

 

[SuperMatt]

They're committing genocide and the world is sitting idly by and watching,

That’s not accurate. The actions being taken are clearly not the ones you favor, but things are being done. Just today:

MSN

www.msn.com

The above bill would have passed a month ago if not for one of the world’s biggest shitheads, Rand Paul.

It has taken too long for Europe to stop coal purchases, and they are still buying Russian oil and gas. They should do more.

As for 2024, I hope this war is over by then.

 

[Eric]

That’s not accurate. The actions being taken are clearly not the ones you favor, but things are being done. Just today:

MSN

www.msn.com

The above bill would have passed a month ago if not for one of the world’s biggest shitheads, Rand Paul.

It has taken too long for Europe to stop coal purchases, and they are still buying Russian oil and gas. They should do more.

As for 2024, I hope this war is over by then.

Yeah, tell that to the families of the 50 people who died in today's bombing, all women and children deliberately targeted. The actions being taken are not enough, Putin will only respond to force. Would love to see Romney in charge right now.

 

[Macky-Mac]

an interesting article about when US & UK intelligence agencies had realized Putin was planning the invasion and what they did about it

link to BBC

Ukraine: Inside the spies’ attempts to stop the war​

 

[Eric]

Interesting polling data on Biden, looks like people are as split as you and I @SuperMatt in any case it puts him in an untenable position. Not sure that anything he can do will make us all happy and I do get he's doing what he thinks is best, even if it's not enough for me.

Most Americans don't like Biden's Ukraine response and worry about inflation

A new NPR/Ipsos poll finds that most Americans give President Biden low marks for his handling of the war in Ukraine, and concerns about inflation are overshadowing positive news about the economy.

www.npr.org

A new NPR/Ipsos poll finds that a majority of Americans think President Biden has not done a good job in his handling of the war. Many say the president has been too cautious, even as a majority say they're wary of sparking a broader conflict.

"The American people are supportive of Ukraine, up to a point," said Chris Jackson, a senior vice president at Ipsos, which conducted the poll.

 

[Deleted member 215]

Fewer than 2 out of 10 want an all-out war with Russia, which is really the only thing he hasn't done. So then what do they want?

"We don't approve of Biden's handling of Ukraine, but we don't think he should've done anything differently".

 

[Cmaier]

Fewer than 2 out of 10 want an all-out war with Russia, which is really the only thing he hasn't done. So then what do they want?

"We don't approve of Biden's handling of Ukraine, but we don't think he should've done anything differently".

Lots of space between what’s been done and war with Russia. We can provide tanks, patriot batteries, drones, etc. to Ukraine. We can declare no fly zones and enforce them. (Russia is all talk. They aren;t going to violate them). We can declare we won’t do any business with any country that does any business with Russia, whether or not they are our friends.

Not saying these are good ideas, but there are lots of things we can do.

 

[SuperMatt]

Fewer than 2 out of 10 want an all-out war with Russia, which is really the only thing he hasn't done. So then what do they want?

"We don't approve of Biden's handling of Ukraine, but we don't think he should've done anything differently".

If you look at the actual issues, most people support what Biden is doing. But the highlighted poll question combines two things: approval of Biden and approval of the American response to Russia. So you will get the 40-something percent people that say “bad” just because they don’t like Biden, and you’re adding people who oppose the policy to that… you’re sure to get an underwater poll number.

 

[Citysnaps]

This will never be publicly acknowledged in the short-term, but I believe we're supplying a ton of assistance to Ukraine leaders and commanders in the field with respect to real time US-collected signals intelligence and imagery, and ECM (electronic counter measures) support when needed. As well as SOCOM/JSOC support on the ground in Ukraine. It's a win for both Ukraine on the battlefield and the US for the trove of valuable Russian intelligence collected.

Not to take anything away from Ukraine fighter's bravery/commitment/resourcefulness, there are other factors in play why the Russians are doing so poorly.

 

[SuperMatt]

This will never be publicly acknowledged in the short-term, but I believe we're supplying a ton of assistance to Ukraine leaders and commanders in the field with respect to real time US-collected signals intelligence and imagery, and ECM (electronic counter measures) support when needed. As well as SOCOM/JSOC support in Ukraine. It's a win for both Ukraine on the battlefield and the US for the trove of valuable Russian intelligence collected.

There's a reason why the Russians are doing so poorly.

I believe you are correct. I think NATO is doing everything they can short of pulling the trigger on the weapons.

I don’t think it is the only reason for Russia’s failure though. All systems in a corrupt dictatorship suffer decay. Sycophants insist everything is going great, and anybody who spots a problem keeps their mouth shut. Russia is primed for another epic collapse, similar to what happened in 1991. Maybe they will adopt a better system of government next time. They’ve had quite a few major changes in the past, none of which turned out very well.

 

[Renzatic]

"We don't approve of Biden's handling of Ukraine, but we don't think he should've done anything differently".

Welcome to politics.

 

[Eric]

If you look at the actual issues, most people support what Biden is doing. But the highlighted poll question combines two things: approval of Biden and approval of the American response to Russia. So you will get the 40-something percent people that say “bad” just because they don’t like Biden, and you’re adding people who oppose the policy to that… you’re sure to get an underwater poll number.

Most polls are showing him underwater, not quite Trump bad but still pretty bad.

How Popular Is Joe Biden?

Latest polls on President Joe Biden’s approval ratings

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Biden approval hits new low at one-year mark: AP-NORC poll

President Joe Biden ends his first year in the White House with a clear majority of Americans for the first time disapproving of his handling of the presidency in the face of an unrelenting pandemic and roaring inflation.

apnews.com

Biden Approval Index History - Rasmussen Reports®

www.rasmussenreports.com

I don't think there's a lot he can do here personally, there's a war and record inflation, both of which are out of his hands. Not sure any president would have good numbers under the circumstances.

 

[SuperMatt]

Most polls are showing him underwater, not quite Trump bad but still pretty bad.

View attachment 13140

How Popular Is Joe Biden?

Latest polls on President Joe Biden’s approval ratings

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Biden approval hits new low at one-year mark: AP-NORC poll

President Joe Biden ends his first year in the White House with a clear majority of Americans for the first time disapproving of his handling of the presidency in the face of an unrelenting pandemic and roaring inflation.

apnews.com

Biden Approval Index History - Rasmussen Reports®

www.rasmussenreports.com

I don't think there's a lot he can do here personally, there's a war and record inflation, both of which are out of his hands. Not sure any president would have good numbers under the circumstances.

That is exactly my point. The poll asking “Do you approve of Biden’s handling of Russia?’ Is basically the sum of Biden’s disapproval rating + people that generally approve of him but have some issue with the handling of Russia. Then people get asked specific questions about how it should be handled (not mentioning the president specifically), and you get a totally different picture.

 

[Citysnaps]

Here's fascinating NYT Magazine article, based on conversations with Fiona Hill and others, about how trump's actions and inactions, cozying up to Russia, denying aid to Ukraine, his refusal to meet with Zelensky, and the January 6th insurrection, pretty much green lighted Putin's planning to invade Ukraine. It's a long read, but worth it.

"Instead, Vindman said, the opposite occurred: “Ukraine became radioactive for the duration of the Trump administration. There wasn’t serious engagement. Putin had been wanting to reclaim Ukraine for eight years, but he was trying to gauge when was the right time to do it. Starting just months after Jan. 6, Putin began building up forces on the border. He saw the discord here. He saw the huge opportunity presented by Donald Trump and his Republican lackeys. I’m not pulling any punches here. I’m not using diplomatic niceties. These folks sent the signal Putin was waiting for.”"

‘This Was Trump Pulling a Putin’ (Published 2022)

Amid the current crisis, Fiona Hill and other former advisers are connecting President Trump’s pressure campaign on Ukraine to Jan. 6. And they’re ready to talk.

www.nytimes.com

 

[SuperMatt]

Here's fascinating NYT Magazine article, based on conversations with Fiona Hill and others, about how trump's actions and inactions, cozying up to Russia, denying aid to Ukraine, his refusal to meet with Zelensky, and the January 6th insurrection, pretty much green lighted Putin's planning to invade Ukraine. It's a long read, but worth it.

"Instead, Vindman said, the opposite occurred: “Ukraine became radioactive for the duration of the Trump administration. There wasn’t serious engagement. Putin had been wanting to reclaim Ukraine for eight years, but he was trying to gauge when was the right time to do it. Starting just months after Jan. 6, Putin began building up forces on the border. He saw the discord here. He saw the huge opportunity presented by Donald Trump and his Republican lackeys. I’m not pulling any punches here. I’m not using diplomatic niceties. These folks sent the signal Putin was waiting for.”"

‘This Was Trump Pulling a Putin’ (Published 2022)

Amid the current crisis, Fiona Hill and other former advisers are connecting President Trump’s pressure campaign on Ukraine to Jan. 6. And they’re ready to talk.

www.nytimes.com

The opening story about Dick Cheney and GW Bush was appalling, but pretty much what I expected. Dick Cheney believed in “diplomacy” through brute force, and Bush is an empty suit who didn’t know or care, so he let Cheney and Rumsfeld do whatever they wanted.

In the Oval Office, Hill recalls, describing a scene that has not been previously reported, she told Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney that offering a membership path to Ukraine and Georgia could be problematic. While Bush’s appetite for promoting the spread of democracy had not been dampened by the Iraq war, President Vladimir Putin of Russia viewed NATO with suspicion and was vehemently opposed to neighboring countries joining its ranks. He would regard it as a provocation, which was one reason the United States’ key NATO allies opposed the idea. Cheney took umbrage at Hill’s assessment. “So, you’re telling me you’re opposed to freedom and democracy,” she says he snapped. According to Hill, he abruptly gathered his materials and walked out of the Oval Office.

Ignoring the advice of Hill and the U.S. intelligence community, Bush announced in Bucharest that “NATO should welcome Georgia and Ukraine into the Membership Action Plan.” Hill’s prediction came true: Several other leaders at the summit objected to Bush’s recommendation. NATO ultimately issued a compromise declaration that would prove unsatisfying to nearly everyone, stating that the two countries “will become members” without specifying how and when they would do so — and still in defiance of Putin’s wishes. (They still have not become members.)

“It was the worst of all possible worlds,” Hill said...

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

 

[AG_PhamD]

The numbers of the Azov appear to be lower than the numbers of white supremacists in America’s military and police forces. Imagine if America was invaded and we needed to ask civilians to grab a gun and fight. I imagine the white power militias would be heavily involved. After the fighting ended, what would you do about these empowered groups? That might be something Ukraine will have to deal with.

If your country is facing an existential fight, especially with extremely limited resources in a highly dangerous war, you’ll be more than happy to work with volunteers willing to fight, even if they’re not morally the best people. This is pretty true of many governments throughout history. The Azov Battalion consists of ultra-nationalists and therefore are probably some of the most passionate fighters when it comes to defending the country. I suppose empowering a thousand or so radicals has been deemed the lesser of two evils.

I can only hope throughout this war these neo-nazis find a new appreciation for freedom and ones right to rightfully and peacefully exist in their home regardless of religion or race.

The Azov "Battalion" is estimated around 900 to 2,500 members. There are as many as 6,000 shitheads in the Proud Boys alone.

Hell, I could probably scrape together a "battalion" of similar vicious idiots from the suburbs of Phoenix alone, much less the state of Arizona.

Moreover, the Russian involvement in Ukraine over the last several years has fueled these assholes, not to mention that a significant chunk of its membership are foreign fighters, who flocked to the area. We saw similar movements in Iraq and Syria, where bored, disaffected teenagers would flock to combat zones to see something. A flock of assholes in the Donbas that's maybe a battalion on a warm summer day is largely meaningless.

As for the relative value of neo-Nazi fighters, I never met a bigger bunch of scared dimwits this side of a Trump rally.

All the so-called "militias" that stalked the border were incompetent nobodies who were terrified of coyotes, and would wet themselves if they ran into a group of scared migrants, much less a guide, or a falcon or sicarrio.

I agree, empowering a couple thousand radicals during an existential crisis is a small price to pay. And I say this as a Jew. Whether I believe their claim 10-20% are actually neo-nazis, I don’t know, probably not. Reportedly they have become less radical as time has persisted and have religious minorities in their fold. As with most racists, race/minority status becomes a minor issue when there is a much bigger threat at hand. Apparently in recent time people looking to really defend their nation and those looking for better training and equipment have volunteered for the Azov.

Back to @SuperMatt’s comment about what do you do with all these radicalized neo-nazis after the war after empowering them… in this case things might just work themselves out. I believe the majority of the Azov are in Mariupol which suggests many/most of their members will be dead within a short amount of time.
@hulugu, It’s not clear to me your comment about neo-nazi’s as scared dimwits- I would generally agree that often applies to most Neo-Nazi Americans hiding behind their keyboard while polishing their AR-15, but the Azov Battallion has proven themselves quite formidable holding out Mariupol for weeks despite all odds. That said, they’ve actually had legit combat/tactical training and have been perfecting their art of battle daily since 2014.

I think this war if anything the benefit of morale when inspired by the conviction of defending your homeland makes a monumental difference. With a United country and commitment, even the least trained, poorly equipped armies/militias/etc can be profoundly capable, at least in holding off the offender.

 

[Yoused]

There are reports that the heavy cruiser Moskva, which may or may not be the ship that shelled Odessa, has experienced an explosion and fire (the origin of which depends on whom you ask) resulting in its ultimate exploration of the Black Sea floor. The crew apparently avoided the ride down.

 

[Cmaier]

There are reports that the heavy cruiser Moskva, which may or may not be the ship that shelled Odessa, has experienced an explosion and fire (the origin of which depends on whom you ask) resulting in its ultimate exploration of the Black Sea floor. The crew apparently avoided the ride down.

Looking forward to people explaining to me why this is terrible news, because war is bad or whatnot.

 

[Yoused]

Looking forward to people explaining to me why this is terrible news, because war is bad or whatnot.

Russia good, Ukraine bad, urrrnnghh