Russia-Ukraine

[GermanSuplex]

GOP should take notes here. They are in an echo chamber. One of the hardest things for people in a cult to do is admit they’re in a cult. Many never do and go down for the ride. And just like Putin surrounded himself with people who tell him what he wanted to hear which resulted in him greatly underestimating the will and capabilities of the Ukrainians, MAGAts are only listening to themselves and underestimating Americans as a whole.

 

[Macky-Mac]

if you’re ukraine you want the Russians on your side - you want them to think it’s an unjust war. Assassinations do nothing other than galvanize the population.

I'm inclined to disagree with the idea that there's anything like helpful sympathy for Ukraine among Russians, and to the extent that there might be some, I suspect Putin won't hesitate to repress it effectively.

Having said that, it's also entirely possible that it wasn't the Ukrainians who are responsible for the car bomb.

 

[MEJHarrison]

GOP should take notes here. They are in an echo chamber. One of the hardest things for people in a cult to do is admit they’re in a cult. Many never do and go down for the ride. And just like Putin surrounded himself with people who tell him what he wanted to hear which resulted in him greatly underestimating the will and capabilities of the Ukrainians, MAGAts are only listening to themselves and underestimating Americans as a whole.

I came across a quote tonight from Demosthenes: "What we wish, that we readily believe."

I had to look up who the hell Demosthenes was, but I thought the quote was quite fitting. If someone is telling you things you want to hear, you're far more likely to listen to what they have to say.

 

[AG_PhamD]

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense posted this meme the other day. What is interesting is that the fighter jet depicted is an F-16 (as well as the “fighting falcon” monicker, which refers to the F-16) … perhaps suggesting they are procuring F-16’s in the future?

There was previous talk of sending Ukraine A-10 Warthogs to which even Ukraine said would be useless given the current environment. The F-16 would probably be the best and most reasonable fighter jet in the US stockpile to send.

That said, reasonable is a relative term. Training pilots and integrating systems is one challenge but certainly achievable given time and resources. The real problem is how Ukraine would service, maintain, and repair these planes as well as the complicated logistics of supporting these planes. They’re too complicated to be supported by relatively unskilled maintainers.

Furthermore, F-16’s are designed to operate from well maintained airbases and otherwise can easily be damaged. They aren’t designed to fly in/out of improvised runways ie highways.

The Saab Gripen seems like it would be the ideal plane for Ukraine given it’s combat similarities to the F-16 while also being designed to for use in environments where you don’t have pristine highways and sophisticated service facilities. There’s a lot more F-16’s in the world though.

Perhaps this is just a trolling campaign against the Russians though.

 

[Citysnaps]

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense posted this meme the other day. What is interesting is that the fighter jet depicted is an F-16 (as well as the “fighting falcon” monicker, which refers to the F-16) … perhaps suggesting they are procuring F-16’s in the future?

View attachment 16953

There was previous talk of sending Ukraine A-10 Warthogs to which even Ukraine said would be useless given the current environment. The F-16 would probably be the best and most reasonable fighter jet in the US stockpile to send.

That said, reasonable is a relative term. Training pilots and integrating systems is one challenge but certainly achievable given time and resources. The real problem is how Ukraine would service, maintain, and repair these planes as well as the complicated logistics of supporting these planes. They’re too complicated to be supported by relatively unskilled maintainers.

Furthermore, F-16’s are designed to operate from well maintained airbases and otherwise can easily be damaged. They aren’t designed to fly in/out of improvised runways ie highways.

The Saab Gripen seems like it would be the ideal plane for Ukraine given it’s combat similarities to the F-16 while also being designed to for use in environments where you don’t have pristine highways and sophisticated service facilities. There’s a lot more F-16’s in the world though.

Perhaps this is just a trolling campaign against the Russians though.

Interesting.

I don't see the US directly supplying them. But could see Poland, Netherlands, Greece, or Belgium providing/lending some to Ukraine, and being resupplied by the US.

Also... I wouldn't be shocked if there are currently Ukraine pilots in the US or other NATO countries already being trained on the F-16.

 

[Macky-Mac]

... don’t like to push conspiracy theories of false flag attacks, but it seems entirely possible that this attack is indeed one. Russia has a history of doing this and what better way to drum up public support than to make civilians feel threatened and support further military action?Especially when Russia’s invasion hasn’t exactly gone to plan and Ukraine has been scoring significant hits against Russia in occupied territory and Russia proper…

That's an entirely plausible "conspiracy theory".....which is the best kind of conspiracy theory!

Recently there have been numerous reports about Russia having substantial difficulty getting new volunteers to enlist to replace those who've been killed or wounded, so certainly it's plausible that Putin's team might hope to create a wave of heightened patriotic support to help boost enlistment.

Given how poorly Russia's military has performed, it's surprising that Putin hasn't already escalated things......but maybe he doesn't have a lot of options left

 

[shadow puppet]

If this means what I think it means, then this is scary AF.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1562879308640952320/

 

[Colstan]

I thought we could use a new update on the UKR-RU conflict.

Ukrainian Forces have retaken the villages of Oleksandrivka and Pravdyne in Kherson Oblast, marking the beginning of Ukraine's Southern offensive.

Kyselivka and Snihurivka are still fully under Russian control. The reason the war has slowed is because Ukraine is softening Russian defenses, and destroying massive numbers of RU ammo depots, along with bridges and railways, to cripple Russian supply lines. Without ammunition, food, and maintenance parts, Russian forces will find it difficult to adequately defend their positions.

Ukraine's air force is alive and well, with MiG-29s shown firing newly supplied U.S. AGM-88 anti-radiation missiles.



Russian-appointed deputy for Kherson region, Stremousov, issued videos in which he reiterated that "Kherson is forever Russian".

The videos were filmed at a Marriott hotel in Voronezh, Russia.

Russians are fleeing Belgorod, heading for Moscow. This is on the border where the RU military is shelling Ukraine from. When your government keeps telling you that the Ukrainians are "Nazis", they will eventually believe it, to the point where they expect retribution when Ukraine's counteroffensive begins, resulting in a mass evacuation. Meanwhile, President Zelenskyy has assured a safe route for civilian occupiers of Crimea back to Russian territory.

In summation, we've gone from "Kyiv will fall in 72hrs" to "Ukraine has broken Russian defenses", in a campaign to liberate occupied territories.

 

[Citysnaps]

America's Got Talent.....Featuring....HIMARS!

 

[Yoused]

I think this belongs in this thread

Chaos In Moscow After Hackers Route Dozens Of Taxis To Single Spot

The hack resulted in almost an hour of standstill traffic.

www.iflscience.com

 

[Yoused]

Our contingent of photographers ought to appreciate this image:

link​

 

[Macky-Mac]

Ukraine having some significant success in recent days.

From the BBC's ongoing coverage:

Russian forces have withdrawn from key eastern towns, as a rapid Ukrainian counter-attack makes further gains.

Ukrainian officials said troops entered Kupiansk, a vital eastern supply hub for Russian forces, on Saturday.

Russia's defence ministry then said its troops have retreated from nearby Izyum to allow them "to regroup".

The ministry also confirmed the withdrawal of troops from a third key town, Balaklyia, in order to "bolster efforts" on the Donetsk front.

The Ukrainian advances - if held - would be the most significant since Russia withdrew from areas around Kyiv in April.

Izyum was a major military hub for the Russians, and was subject to intense fighting in the early stages of the invasion....

Izium was a major target of the Russians months ago......and now they've been forced to retreat to "regroup"

 

[Alli]

I think Ukraine should keep it up and liberate Moscow for the good of the world.

 

[AG_PhamD]

Ukraine having some significant success in recent days.

From the BBC's ongoing coverage:




Izium was a major target of the Russians months ago......and now they've been forced to retreat to "regroup"

I was guessing the Russians were either going to “regroup” or withdraw as a “gesture of goodwill”. Regardless it appears Russia is extremely competent and has everything under control (sarcasm).

If the Ukrainians weren’t motivated enough having their country invaded, citizens murdered in cold blood, and friends killed in battle in their homeland, I can only imagine how inspiring it must to be so warmly greeted by the civilians they have freed from Russian occupation. I can’t think of a more emotionally rewarding experience for a solider. Incredible stuff.

On the other hand, this has got to be incredibly humiliating to the Russian soldiers. They already have low morale issues. The Ukrainians have conquered more land in the past few days than Russia gained in months. And apparently the Russians have left behind a bunch of vehicles, weapons, and their own people. The Ukrainians are taking back land faster than they can supply their front lines. Things seem to be have falling apart very quickly, the Russian incompetence is on display for all to see. Let’s hope this trend continues and the Russian deterioration cascades further.

I’m not sure this is a turning point and is unlikely to be anything close to the end of the war, but it doesn’t bode well for Russia’s future in Ukraine.

 

[Citysnaps]

I think what we're seeing is the result of the US providing Ukraine with very accurate real time intelligence and targeting information. And a large number of HIMARS systems with M31 GMLRS rockets that can send a 200 pound warhead out to 70 - 150 km with a CEP (circular error probable, half in/half out) of 2-3 meters. Almost every shot will be a winner.

 

[Alli]

I think while Ukraine is doing this well, they may as well go help the poor people of Moscow and free Navalny.

 

[AG_PhamD]

I think while Ukraine is doing this well, they may as well go help the poor people of Moscow and free Navalny.

Haha.

Sadly I think it’s entirely possible if Putin was ever overthrown, Russia could end up with an even more authoritarian nationalist leader. There are a lot of powerful Russians who are angry at Putin, thinking he should be doing more to ensure victory.

I think what we're seeing is the result of the US providing Ukraine with very accurate real time intelligence and targeting information. And a large number of HIMARS systems with M31 GMLRS rockets that can send a 200 pound warhead out to 70 - 150 km with a CEP (circular error probable, half in/half out) of 2-3 meters. Almost every shot will be a winner.

HARM anti-radiation missiles too. The Ukrainians claim they recently took out two Russian S-400 systems recently (not sure what part(s) as they’re distributed), generally considered the most advanced air defense system in the world. They also claim to have taken out another S-300 radar in addition to Tor and Buk systems. The Russians will probably be thinking twice before turning on their radars.

It will be interesting to see how Russia responds to this. I think Russia is smart enough to know if they use nukes they will piss off the world and likely get NATO directly involved and that the fallout could very possibly blow into their country. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t other terrible actions they can take. I don’t see an easy off-ramp for Putin at the moment.

Thinking further down the line, if Ukraine is able to rid themselves of Russian occupation on land, Russia could still blockade their ports with their navy. Ukraine essentially has no navy to speak of as it was mainly parked in Crimea in 2014 and was captured by the Russians. The one legitimate warship they had at the beginning of this war was scuttled due to fears Russia would take it. Ukraine does have land based anti-ship weapons (as demonstrated with the sinking of the Moskova) but can easily avoid them if they just maintain their distance. Plus, they won’t be effective against submarines. So I’m not entirely sure how Ukraine would manage that potential problem.

 

[Citysnaps]

HARM anti-radiation missiles too.

What I like most about the HARM story are the optics. US made HARMs attached to Soviet/Russian made SU-27 and MiG-29 combat aircraft, piloted by Ukrainian pilots. See... this proves we can all come together in the spirit of international cooperation!

Regarding naval forces in the Black Sea... There's no doubt in my mind we have assets there, in the form of autonomous naval drones and small-crew mini subs. Either brought in with a wink from Turkey through the Bosporus, or flown into a neighboring friendly country and submerged. Wouldn't be shocked if Ukrainian sailors have been undergoing training in Groton, CT to man/control those subs/naval-drones and deal with the Russian ship/sub problem.

 

[Macky-Mac]

....Thinking further down the line, if Ukraine is able to rid themselves of Russian occupation on land, Russia could still blockade their ports with their navy. Ukraine essentially has no navy to speak of as it was mainly parked in Crimea in 2014 and was captured by the Russians. The one legitimate warship they had at the beginning of this war was scuttled due to fears Russia would take it. Ukraine does have land based anti-ship weapons (as demonstrated with the sinking of the Moskova) but can easily avoid them if they just maintain their distance. Plus, they won’t be effective against submarines. So I’m not entirely sure how Ukraine would manage that potential problem.

....Regarding naval forces in the Black Sea... There's no doubt in my mind we have assets there, in the form of autonomous naval drones and small-crew mini subs. Either brought in with a wink from Turkey through the Bosporus, or flown into a neighboring friendly country and submerged. Wouldn't be shocked if Ukrainian sailors have been undergoing training in Groton, CT to man/control those subs/naval-drones and deal with the Russian ship/sub problem.

I'm recalling that in August there was a fair bit of commentary about Ukraine's success in negating the effectiveness of Russia's Black Sea fleet.

This article from Politico for example;

Ukraine has hobbled Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Could it turn the tide of the war?​

The fleet and its air wing have been battered by Ukrainian missile and drone attacks, turning the once-feared force into something of an afterthought....

I assume that military planners are looking at how the use of advanced weapon systems has played out in Ukraine and are seriously reconsidering the risks for large warships.

Russia might be able to lay mines but ships trying to enforce a blockade, their fleet could just be sitting ducks for Ukraine. And when Russia loses ships in the Black Sea, they have a problem replacing them with the passage through Turkey closed to war ships

 

[Citysnaps]

And when Russia loses ships in the Black Sea, they have a problem replacing them with the passage through Turkey closed to war ships

The world looking on with Russia losing a billion dollar pride of the Russian Navy warship is nice, too!