The 2022 Midterms

[Herdfan]

Um what?

In the example you gave, how do you know that Dems in Dem leaning districts didn't turn out more heavily that Republicans in Republican leaning districts?

Numbers like that can give a false picture. If there is a district that is GOP heavy (simply by being more rural and not because of gerrymandering) and it is not a gubernatorial year, why do the Republicans need to turn out? Or maybe Dems in the urban areas turned out more heavily. You simply can't tell by gross percentages.

 

[ronntaylor]

Too gerrymandered? I would swear only Republicans did that.

Couldn't read the linked article, but a few I did read (not FoxNews just FYI) seemed to use phrases like:



and



Just an FYI in case anyone needs to know, all 7 judges were appointed by Democrat Governors and 6 of the 7 are Democrats.

It was too gerrymandered after the passage of voter approved Constitutional reforms. The Dems were trying to undo extreme gerrymandering assisted by Mario Cuomo and the GOP early on in his administration. The judges rightly put a stop to it. We know GOP judiciaries won't do the same in the face of obvious extreme gerrymandering. Especially when the Right wingers on the Supremes make divergent rulings in a short period of time benefitting the GOP after ruling against Dems.

 

[ronntaylor]

Um what? You were apparently upset enough about NY gerrymandering to post an article about it, but if it is a far worse gerrymander in Wisconsin, you’re ok with it?

Of course he is. Wisconsin and NC are two of the worst cases of extreme gerrymandering ever witnessed. And has the approval of GOP pols, state courts and the right wingers on the Supremes.

 

[SuperMatt]

In the example you gave, how do you know that Dems in Dem leaning districts didn't turn out more heavily that Republicans in Republican leaning districts?

Numbers like that can give a false picture. If there is a district that is GOP heavy (simply by being more rural and not because of gerrymandering) and it is not a gubernatorial year, why do the Republicans need to turn out? Or maybe Dems in the urban areas turned out more heavily. You simply can't tell by gross percentages.

Again, what? They counted the total votes. 44.7% of VOTES were for Republicans… and over 60% of the seats in the legislature.

Pretending that extreme gerrymanders in Republican states are a magical coincidence while being incensed about one happening in NY is bullshit of the highest degree.

I said I oppose gerrymanders by both parties. You clearly only give a fuck if it is Democrats doing it.

Here is a great piece on gerrymandering by both sides (spoiler: it’s mostly Republicans, but Dems do not have clean hands either).

https://files.elfsightcdn.com/c98035dd-59ef-4b06-8e5b-c8d4dd555d9d/7f88292d-d6df-4f1c-9f0c-5f52e9d61a9e.pdf

 

[ronntaylor]

Further Covid stimulus relief was a continuation of what Trump already did. Republicans had to object because they reflexively have to object to everything Democrats do, but passing it wasn’t exactly a Herculean task. The child tax credit is toast and those kids are plopped right back into poverty. Republicans were pissed Trump didn’t try to pass an infrastructure bill, not only popular, but also a massive corruption money grab bag for their donors in the industries, both parties. Republicans only had to put up a stink reflexively but given the corruption opportunities quickly backed down.

To be clear, on the federal level Republicans successfully blocking legislation is getting shit done by their definition. But they also didn’t need to do a damn thing in this case. They have a couple Democrats doing the dirty work for them. This freed them up to spend their time on state legislation and future vote rigging. They seem to be wildly successful at that. Of course there are anti-Trump Republicans in office but they quickly get steamrolled. By contrast the Anti-Biden agenda Democrats are given outsized power.

At Obama’s resent white house visit he jokingly referred to Biden as the vice president which got big laughs and was a massive slap in the face to Biden. Then everybody fawned all over Obama while leaving Biden to meander around aimlessly. So saying Obama is no longer relevant because how long he hasn’t been President is like saying neither is Trump. The big difference is Trump can run again. Democrats would run Obama again in a heartbeat if they could. Obama still has huge cache with the party and when he says “don’t expect much” people listen. I’d even argue given the choice people would listen more to Obama now over Biden as President. I actually feel bad for Biden in this respect. If Obama walks in there is this air of “Oh, a real leader just entered the room.”

To be honest, I haven’t really heard much on Biden’s college debt relief other than its nowhere near what he ran on. I will look into it more though.

We’ll see, but I don’t see voters sharing your enthusiasm about national Democrat accomplishments when voting time arrives.

Further COVID stimulus would not have passed were it not for Ossoff and Warnock getting Dems to a 50/50 Senate. The GOP incumbents in GA already said that they were not voting for it. The House Dems assured that further stimulus was even on the table. The Progressives whined and pouted about an additional $2000 check instead of total of $2000 (ie. $1400 check after the $600 earlier check). The expanded Child Tax Credit also expanded the Child and Dependent Care Credit. So that's upto $4000 in additional credit with income minimums eliminated. The Infrastructure bill was the largest passed by Congress. Every state will benefit should state and local governments that advantage of programs and grants. Something that didn't happen under Mango despite his constant talk.

Sitting on your ass is a roundabout way of "getting things done" no matter how you try to justify it. The GOP did nothing but get the super rich richer with a single piece of major legislation. Even the earlier COVID relief scam that benefited their crooks was co-opted in its implementation as Dems added checks on the stimulus, but Mango's cabal circumvented those checks and we're just getting a clear picture of just how now.

Obama isn't pushing for legislation. Isn't rallying Dem voters. Isn't in office and it not going to be assisting. Hell, he didn't assist enough during the final close of the 2016 elections when he supposedly wanted to keep his legacy intact. So I don't give a damn about fawning over Obama as it's not going to help Dems keep control of both houses. He can't run again. Any fantasy of what would happen if he could is just pissing in the wind.

The Biden admin already got student debt erased for ~750K loans. About 2.5 millions loans will be paid off sooner thanks to adjustments to programs by the Biden admin that should have been provided by the previous assholes. The most recent announced plan would give relief to at least 3 million loans. Enough Dems pols (and voters) are not on-board with complete debt forgiveness. So it will be a hard sell at best. Free community college suffers the same drawbacks. Too many Dems in Congress and Dem voters are against it. And with almost every plan calling for local government buy-in, it will be a non-starter in many (most?) states.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

I wonder if you will receive the same treatment I did when I posted this?

I’m the lesser attackee here.

I’ll admit there are things I don’t deep dive on, but I’m just one person. There are plenty of voters (probably the majority) who don’t deep dive and nor do they have somebody in their circle of influence who is going to deep dive for them. “Here’s a way buried story on something the Democrats accomplished that you’d probably like”. More times than not it comes down a voter’s personal reality. If that’s not good then there’s a good chance their vote isn’t going to go to whoever is currently in office, discounting for blind party loyalty.

 

[Huntn]

We are a little over 6 months out and things are not looking good for the Dems. Here is former Clinton Pollster Mark Penn's assessment:

Voters are angry about half a dozen Democratic-fueled problems | National Review

America today is facing real, undeniable problems, and most of them are strongly associated with the Democratic Party.

www.nationalreview.com

So to start with a summary, I don’t think we deserve to succeed. You can choose imperfect Democrat candidates who you are not happy with, or corrupt, anti-democratic, fuck truth, immoral, screw democracy, burn the house down budding fascists made in Donny’s image, Republican candidates. And then we’ll rely on STUPID to make the choice. We’re royally screwed, self inflicted, and we fucking deserve every bad thing that we allowed to happen though our collective bad choices.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Further COVID stimulus would not have passed were it not for Ossoff and Warnock getting Dems to a 50/50 Senate. The GOP incumbents in GA already said that they were not voting for it. The House Dems assured that further stimulus was even on the table. The Progressives whined and pouted about an additional $2000 check instead of total of $2000 (ie. $1400 check after the $600 earlier check). The expanded Child Tax Credit also expanded the Child and Dependent Care Credit. So that's upto $4000 in additional credit with income minimums eliminated. The Infrastructure bill was the largest passed by Congress. Every state will benefit should state and local governments that advantage of programs and grants. Something that didn't happen under Mango despite his constant talk.

Sitting on your ass is a roundabout way of "getting things done" no matter how you try to justify it. The GOP did nothing but get the super rich richer with a single piece of major legislation. Even the earlier COVID relief scam that benefited their crooks was co-opted in its implementation as Dems added checks on the stimulus, but Mango's cabal circumvented those checks and we're just getting a clear picture of just how now.

Obama isn't pushing for legislation. Isn't rallying Dem voters. Isn't in office and it not going to be assisting. Hell, he didn't assist enough during the final close of the 2016 elections when he supposedly wanted to keep his legacy intact. So I don't give a damn about fawning over Obama as it's not going to help Dems keep control of both houses. He can't run again. Any fantasy of what would happen if he could is just pissing in the wind.

The Biden admin already got student debt erased for ~750K loans. About 2.5 millions loans will be paid off sooner thanks to adjustments to programs by the Biden admin that should have been provided by the previous assholes. The most recent announced plan would give relief to at least 3 million loans. Enough Dems pols (and voters) are not on-board with complete debt forgiveness. So it will be a hard sell at best. Free community college suffers the same drawbacks. Too many Dems in Congress and Dem voters are against it. And with almost every plan calling for local government buy-in, it will be a non-starter in many (most?) states.

Do you think all that is enough to keep or win voters in purple states? If it is a bloodbath in the midterms, what would you say explains that?

On the Child Tax Credit, before I posted I asked my coworker who is a parent and she believes all those benefits are done. Granted, she’s not an expert but I did ask.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

So to start with a summary, I don’t think we deserve to succeed. You can choose imperfect Democrat candidates who you are not happy with, or corrupt, anti-democratic, fuck truth, immoral, screw democracy, burn the house down budding fascists made in Donny’s image, Republican candidates. And then we’ll rely on STUPID to make the choice. We’re royally screwed, self inflicted, and we fucking deserve every bad thing that we allowed to happen though our collective bad choices.

I wouldn’t say it's entirely our fault. We were heavily brainwashed by the cult of blind patriotism and exceptionalism while worshipping the rich. As I heard somebody put it, Democrats deserve to lose but Republicans don’t deserve to win.

With the rise of the internet and tech, the nerds became top dog. It seems like maybe the stupid are now going to get their turn on top.

 

[ronntaylor]

Do you think all that is enough to keep or win voters in purple states? If it is a bloodbath in the midterms, what would you say explains that?

On the Child Tax Credit, before I posted I asked my coworker who is a parent and she believes all those benefits are done. Granted, she’s not an expert but I did ask.

TBH, there are too many stupid voters. It doesn't matter what Dems do. Too many are uninvolved. Unaware. Complacent. Especially outside of Presidential years. The Dems need to do better at PR. The GOP uses distraction via hate-filled rhetoric. And Dem pols and voters play into the games. Witness Kelly in Arizona. He's attempting to rope in Independents and some republicans. Which will enrage Dem voters and cause some to stay home. Dems can't afford to lose that seat in AZ. They may be lucky with a pick up in PA and maybe in WI.

The Child Tax Credit extra payments ended in December; but the Child Care Credit increase remains and there is no longer a minimum salary threshold. So families can get up $4000/year. Dems need to stress that extra credit potential as that can mean a great deal for working families.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

TBH, there are too many stupid voters. It doesn't matter what Dems do. Too many are uninvolved. Unaware. Complacent. Especially outside of Presidential years. The Dems need to do better at PR. The GOP uses distraction via hate-filled rhetoric. And Dem pols and voters play into the games. Witness Kelly in Arizona. He's attempting to rope in Independents and some republicans. Which will enrage Dem voters and cause some to stay home. Dems can't afford to lose that seat in AZ. They may be lucky with a pick up in PA and maybe in WI.

The Child Tax Credit extra payments ended in December; but the Child Care Credit increase remains and there is no longer a minimum salary threshold. So families can get up $4000/year. Dems need to stress that extra credit potential as that can mean a great deal for working families.

Without saying it, kind of my point has been in order to counter the stupid and hate filled fearmongering of the Republicans you need to slap voters in the face with Democrat lead legislation they benefit from and they shouldn’t have to go digging for it. It should be an obvious benefit they are currently experiencing. Of course that wouldn’t decide it for everybody but it would go a long way.

As I mentioned previously, I think there is also a serious “We’ll just get it next time” apathy which is completely ignoring the fact that Republicans are doing everything in their power to prevent a next time. At best, look at their lust over Hungary which is only a democracy on paper and if you bothered to actually read that paper beyond the "democracy" title you’d see that it isn’t. To top it off, more and more people on the right are quite open about not wanting a democracy.

It's like somebody approaching you from across the street with a gun pointed at your head and you believe there's no way they would pull the trigger because they're so out in the open about it. Then they pull the trigger and somehow you're still in disbelief...and dead.

 

[Huntn]

I wouldn’t say it's entirely our fault. We were heavily brainwashed by the cult of blind patriotism and exceptionalism while worshipping the rich. As I heard somebody put it, Democrats deserve to lose but Republicans don’t deserve to win.

With the rise of the internet and tech, the nerds became top dog. It seems like maybe the stupid are now going to get their turn on top.

Related:
Post in thread 'Examples of why the Human Species Might Be Doomed'
https://talkedabout.com/threads/examples-of-why-the-human-species-might-be-doomed.2665/post-99949

 

[Huntn]

Without saying it, kind of my point has been in order to counter the stupid and hate filled fearmongering of the Republicans you need to slap voters in the face with Democrat lead legislation they benefit from and they shouldn’t have to go digging for it. It should be an obvious benefit they are currently experiencing. Of course that wouldn’t decide it for everybody but it would go a long way.

As I mentioned previously, I think there is also a serious “We’ll just get it next time” apathy which is completely ignoring the fact that Republicans are doing everything in their power to prevent a next time. At best, look at their lust over Hungary which is only a democracy on paper and if you bothered to actually read that paper beyond the "democracy" title you’d see that it isn’t. To top it off, more and more people on the right are quite open about not wanting a democracy.

It's like somebody approaching you from across the street with a gun pointed at your head and you believe there's no way they would pull the trigger because they're so out in the open about it. Then they pull the trigger and somehow you're still in disbelief...and dead.

The GOP is a direct threat to USA based democracy as they increasing look to fascism at the State Level, and if Trump returns, at the Federal Level too.

Examples: Besides BLATANT gerrymandering, the attempt in Georgia (succeeded?) for the next Presidential election for any results the GOP don’t like, they have given themselves the power to upend the election board, seizing its power and simply declare the election results null and void because of vague unidentified fraud. No requirement to identify such fraud, just state there is, and then declare for their favored candidate based on their own brand of “legalized” GOP fraud. Fuckers…

 

[ronntaylor]

Without saying it, kind of my point has been in order to counter the stupid and hate filled fearmongering of the Republicans you need to slap voters in the face with Democrat lead legislation they benefit from and they shouldn’t have to go digging for it. It should be an obvious benefit they are currently experiencing. Of course that wouldn’t decide it for everybody but it would go a long way.

As I mentioned previously, I think there is also a serious “We’ll just get it next time” apathy which is completely ignoring the fact that Republicans are doing everything in their power to prevent a next time. At best, look at their lust over Hungary which is only a democracy on paper and if you bothered to actually read that paper beyond the "democracy" title you’d see that it isn’t. To top it off, more and more people on the right are quite open about not wanting a democracy.

It's like somebody approaching you from across the street with a gun pointed at your head and you believe there's no way they would pull the trigger because they're so out in the open about it. Then they pull the trigger and somehow you're still in disbelief...and dead.

Ohio should be an easy win for Dems. The infrastructure bill will mean jobs, training, and retraining for lots of unemployed/underemployed white workers (and of course Black working class folk, Latino working folk, etc). But they're still enamored with Mango. Not lots, but just enough to cause Dem losses. And too many Dems feel you have to cater to those fools. Tim Ryan is playing with fire with his anti-China rhetoric.

 

[ronntaylor]

One thing I forgot about Biden and relieving student debt burdens

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1519490586365116416/

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

One thing I forgot about Biden and relieving student debt burdens

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1519490586365116416/

In a lot of ways I feel like Biden is a product of his time and while there are plenty of cringe and anger inducing moments from his long political career, I don’t consider him part of the most evil career politicians (important to note I am a white guy). But this also isn’t the time for a soft touch moderate attempting bipartisan support with a party who is completely disinterested and has moved past responsible governing into dismantling democracy and persecuting and punishing “others” with a list that qualifies somebody as an “other” growing bigger by the day.

 

[Herdfan]

Do you think all that is enough to keep or win voters in purple states? If it is a bloodbath in the midterms, what would you say explains that?

I would say it is going to depend if the mood of the voters is to vote FOR something or AGAINST something. And that is something each individual voter has to decide.

 

[Huntn]

In a lot of ways I feel like Biden is a product of his time and while there are plenty of cringe and anger inducing moments from his long political career, I don’t consider him part of the most evil career politicians (important to note I am a white guy). But this also isn’t the time for a soft touch moderate attempting bipartisan support with a party who is completely disinterested and has moved past responsible governing into dismantling democracy and persecuting and punishing “others” with a list that qualifies somebody as an “other” growing bigger by the day.

I see 2 aspects here 1) Trying to be reasonable and work with the other side and 2) the appearance to the base of trying to be reasonable.

Now when the other side‘s response is Fuck You, put up your fists!, worse, shows just how fuck you, kill-democracy, anti-constitutional, cheat, lie, and steal to seize wins at any cost they are, and not only that but they are ignorant dip-shits, who don’t even understand or appreciate how cooperative governing democracy is supposed to, should work, and there are enough of these ass holes elected because of the racist assholes back home, then as evident by the state of the USA in 2022, we are in DEEP SHIT.

And I say this a lot, we look at the Trump inspired losers in Congress as the threat, but really the threat are the losers back home who elected them and think they are just the best. Compare today to 1960. We are now electing people who would not have ever been considered for leadership positions before. Our standards have plummeted just like our prospects. Based on the ideals the country was founded upon, we have a cancer that is consuming us and it’s easy to ask who are we and how long do we have?

 

[Herdfan]

I see what you are saying, and I wish there was more civility. But at this point in time, both sides are as bad as the other. Think of all the things Dems were for until Trump was for them and then they ran for the hills. And no, the GOP is no better. Neither side wants to let the other have a win.

Some times I think more would get done if Congress could cast their ballots anonymously.

 

[GermanSuplex]

Politico is reporting on a draft memo showing the Supreme Court is poised to strike down Roe vs. Wade. (The leak is another story in and of itself).

I’m not sure if this will be good or bad for republicans. Trump will get a lot of glory for this, and rightfully so. We can say the Supreme Court picks were luck, etc, but he seated three justices regardless.

Will it turn out dems and flip independents blue? Will it rally conservatives? This may hurt conservatives more than it helps. If the dog catches the car, it may not end up as just a big celebration and then return to life as normal.

The reality of a young pre-teen being raped and forced to deliver a child is a very real scenario. I don’t see that as a positive for republicans.

Draft majority opinion signals Supreme Court may overturn Roe v. Wade — POLITICO

“We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled,” Justice Alito writes in an initial majority draft circulated inside the court.

apple.news