The Election Day Thread

[SuperMatt]

Not good

View attachment 1174


(I hid counties with <500 net expected.)

It sounds like the Biden voters in the red counties overwhelmingly voted by mail, according to this from 538....

NATE SILVER
NOV. 5, 1:21 PM
This sort of data is a big problem for Trump in Georgia. Even in a place like Bryan County, where Trump won by 43 points in 2016, Biden is actually winning by 15 in mail votes that were processed today. Those mail votes are just coming in very blue, sometimes even in red counties.

He was referring to this tweet:

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1324413829351170048/

I note specifically a county like Putnam - heavily red, but its mail-in votes went only 51% to Trump.

 

[Eric]

It sounds like the Biden voters in the red counties overwhelmingly voted by mail, according to this from 538....

NATE SILVER
NOV. 5, 1:21 PM
This sort of data is a big problem for Trump in Georgia. Even in a place like Bryan County, where Trump won by 43 points in 2016, Biden is actually winning by 15 in mail votes that were processed today. Those mail votes are just coming in very blue, sometimes even in red counties.

He was referring to this tweet:

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1324413829351170048/

I note specifically a county like Putnam - heavily red, but its mail-in votes went only 51% to Trump.

Yeah, this is a new bombshell dropped today and they have for more ballots than they originally thought. This isn't looking good for Trump.

 

[SuperMatt]

As of today, Trump has 5.2% of the vote in the District of Columbia. In 2016 he only got 4%. His neighbors never wanted him in the neighborhood to begin with, and after 4 years living with him, they haven't changed their feelings much......

 

[rdrr]

More crazy... NV voter states her ballot was stolen, Investigators validated her signature then gave her the opportunity to make an official challenge of her claim, she declined. Trump campaign is trying to make a case out of the false claim.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1324419281577271300/

 

[SuperMatt]

More crazy... NV voter states her ballot was stolen, Investigators validated her signature then gave her the opportunity to make an official challenge of her claim, she declined. Trump campaign is trying to make a case out of the false claim.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1324419281577271300/

Please can some billionaire buy Facebook and just unplug it permanently? These stories spread to millions on Facebook, and end up not standing up to even the slightest scrutiny.

 

[User.45]

It sounds like the Biden voters in the red counties overwhelmingly voted by mail, according to this from 538....

NATE SILVER
NOV. 5, 1:21 PM
This sort of data is a big problem for Trump in Georgia. Even in a place like Bryan County, where Trump won by 43 points in 2016, Biden is actually winning by 15 in mail votes that were processed today. Those mail votes are just coming in very blue, sometimes even in red counties.

He was referring to this tweet:

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1324413829351170048/

I note specifically a county like Putnam - heavily red, but its mail-in votes went only 51% to Trump.

Yeah I looked at my spreadsheet. We'll have to rely heavily on the mail-in effect though, that's why it's less clear than it was earlier in the AM.

If I pad all Trump strongholds and say there's a 20% margin these places and add a 10% margin to Biden in the Blue counties, it can work (not a crazy adjustment, but still a significant adjustment). This will be triple digit-low four digit scale close).

 

[Alli]

If I pad all Trump strongholds and say there's a 20% margin these places and add a 10% margin to Biden in the Blue counties, it can work (not a crazy adjustment, but still a significant adjustment). This will be triple digit-low four digit scale close).

I was so happy when my quan classes were over. And then the election. After this week I never want to see another statistic as long as I live!

 

[Edd]

Just popped into a Breitbart comments section to smugly gauge the mood. The comments pretty much amount to fraudfraudfraudfraudfraudfraudfraudfraudfraudfraudfraud!!

Its impossible for me to distinguish between bot and human over there. Every post appears authored by a lunatic.

 

[lizkat]

Just popped into a Breitbart comments section to smugly gauge the mood. The comments pretty much amount to fraudfraudfraudfraudfraudfraudfraudfraudfraudfraudfraud!!

Its impossible for me to distinguish between bot and human over there. Every post appears authored by a lunatic.

I'll stick to the takes on front pages of more mainstream papers, including certain tabloids from across the pond.

 

[Edd]

I'll stick to the takes on front pages of more mainstream papers, including certain tabloids from across the pond.

View attachment 1178

Hoping Trump sees that headline

 

[lizkat]

I was so happy when my quan classes were over. And then the election. After this week I never want to see another statistic as long as I live!

Yeah but ya don't want to miss out on little gems like this. Ms. Lily Adams is the senior spokesperson for the Democrats' official War Room, keepin' it real this afternoon for fans of eventually killing the electoral college...

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1324428879688159232/

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

More crazy... NV voter states her ballot was stolen, Investigators validated her signature then gave her the opportunity to make an official challenge of her claim, she declined. Trump campaign is trying to make a case out of the false claim.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1324419281577271300/

Do we have her name? We need to have that in order to submit her for the 2020 Jussie Smollett Award. I expect a lot of nominees to come out of the next couple weeks. Might even have to make it a group award.

 

[chagla]

More crazy... NV voter states her ballot was stolen, Investigators validated her signature then gave her the opportunity to make an official challenge of her claim, she declined. Trump campaign is trying to make a case out of the false claim.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1324419281577271300/

Stolen? Delayed? not found? DeJoys' being loyal to his master. Can she prove it was stolen? Did she request a second one? Did she report immediately?

 

[rdrr]

Do we have her name? We need to have that in order to submit her for the 2020 Jussie Smollett Award. I expect a lot of nominees to come out of the next couple weeks. Might even have to make it a group award.

Ugh... I betcha Jessie Smollett is really regretting that whole thing. I am glad there isn't a stupidity award named after me, but of course I have done a lot of stupid things in my day. However nothing rising to that level.

 

[Arkitect]

Well, there is a bit of hope that the Trump false gold is wearing off.

According to News and Guts, "GOP Congressman Tells Trump To “Stop” And “Accept” Outcome “Win Or Lose”

Link

And here’s what Kinzinger said today on CNN:

“It’s one thing for a president to kind of declare that he thinks he’s going to win or even declare victory. that’s a bit much, shouldn’t do it. Where I have a real problem with what’s going on is when a president starts alleging voter fraud without evidence of that…”
“The problem with throwing out unsubstantiated charges is it undermines faith in democracy and then when he loses or maybe even when you win, people aren’t going to believe it. I will tell you what, I looked at Facebook last night before I went to bed, which was a mistake, just to look at it, and I just — every one of the stories on my wall were somebody that believed that either 100,000 votes were dumped with only Biden’s votes or that Wisconsin had more voters than people registered to vote. None of it is true, but people believe this. this is how this stuff gets spread.”

 

[Edd]

Pretty sure I’d already read about this today but Twitter is choking off Trump’s bullshit.

 

[rdrr]

Do you think these states are slow rolling the count because they don't want to be the ones to put Biden over 270 and cause the ire of all the MAGA voters?

Edit: My own personal tinfoil hat thought.

 

[Alli]

Do you think these states are slow rolling the count because they don't want to be the ones to put Biden over 270 and cause the ire of all the MAGA voters?

Nah.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Do you think these states are slow rolling the count because they don't want to be the ones to put Biden over 270 and cause the ire of all the MAGA voters?

Edit: My own personal tinfoil hat thought.

Perhaps the results should be announced through inserting them late in the lyrics of a live cover of Lynyrd Skynyrd’s Freebird. That should have at least some calming buffer effect.

 

[rdrr]

I didn't realize how bad the postal service debacle really was. My mom is a snowbird (Summers NH, Winters FL). She is a registered Dem in Polk County Florida. Requested her absentee ballot in late June and never got it. So she had to quickly register and vote in NH. Guess what showed up in the mail today?