Up in the sky…it’s a bird…it’s a plane…it’s a Chinese spy blimp

I’m quite China is all up in our business, probably more than we’d risk imagining. TikTok and Huawei are notable examples, but I think it goes far beyond that.

90%+ of commercial CCTV cameras are made by the Chinese companies Hikvision or Dahua (and often are branded under many other names). They are banned in government buildings in part because these companies employ slave labor, but also because their security is incredibly weak and these companies often ignore fixing known exploits. I imagine many end users of these cameras do not take the proper precautions to keep their data/cameras secure.

And think about all the web connected security cameras people have around their houses now… some of them made and maintained by Chinese companies, ergo the Chinese government. Then there is the rest of the IoT things everywhere from light switches to fridges to toasters, to TV’s, a lot of this stuff coming from Chinese companies. And it should be just as concerning that some Western companies use Chinese servers to handle their data- I would assume because it’s cheaper. The US military years ago rid itself of DJI drones due to extensive data collection.

And let’s not forget China was trying to weasel their way into global PCR testing during the outbreak of the pandemic- perhaps run a dragnet of people’s personal health info.

These days, most power grid transformer production occurs in China because building it’s time and labor intensive work and it’s obviously cheaper to do it there. At least a few years ago the DoE and FBI decided to inspect a Chinese made transformer that was being imported. It turns out that a circuit existed in it’s control system that did not exist in the schematics. This extra feature if activated would turn off the cooling pumps and temperature monitoring, causing the transformer to overheat and wreck itself. These things can cost upwards of many millions and are not easily replaceable- in some cases they’re custom made. Trump banned transformer sales from China. Biden unfortunately reversed this policy- but I suppose we might have better awareness now.

Taking down infrastructure is an extremely troubling issue. The only thing that comforts me about China’s data collection is that they must have so much collected data that they don’t know what to do with it. And I suppose that’s always the difficult thing for intelligence to do, especially with such dragnet approaches, find the needles in endless field of haystacks. But given how well they can monitor their own population and the fact they continue to collect more and more and more, suggests that it’s a worthwhile endeavor for them.



An aircraft flying at high altitude can create a massive debris field. Malaysian Flight MH17 over Ukraine was at 33,000 feet when it was hit by a missile and it’s debris field was 20 square miles. That said, obviously a balloon is much smaller and less dense, not to mention much slower, than a Boeing 777. But the debris from an exploded missile also poses a risk. I would think a ballon popping at 66k ft is unlikely to drop like a rock- instead probably getting blown around wherever the wind takes it.

Plus we probably don’t necessarily know what is onboard- for all we know it could be carrying hazardous chemicals or maybe they’re just seeding plague across the US.

I think the actual reason for not shooting it down is because that only escalates what I would imagine is an already tense situation. Incidents of shooting first and asking questions later when it comes to air incursions and international incidents typically doesn’t have a good outcome.

Secondly, imagine the panic that would ensure if the news was reporting the Air Force was shooting down a Chinese spy craft over the middle of America. Now that the intrusion is recognized and it’s not exactly huge threat to the public, the military can probably manage the situation just fine and escort it to wherever it goes and I’m sure they will collect it.

I would think right now we have a U2 spy plane following our friendly spy balloon across America. Off the top of my head that’s the only plane we have capable of such altitudes.

I’d be curious if the route this balloon took, how quickly we detected it, and if this is the first time or actually much more common. Perhaps all those UFO’s navy pilots are seeing are actually Chinese spy craft and not actually aliens.
Weird somehow you quoted one of my old posts from the Russia thread in this thread? I think the forum got broken somehow as I’m 100% sure that was not your intention given your response and may not have been a deliberate result of your clicks.

@Eric - possible bug?
 
My initial thought when I read this was why a balloon, they have satellites.

This article has some theories:



Inside is a fresh supply of fortune cookie contents. Stuff like "You will have a healthy and profitable New Year." They didn't have a use for so many of those back home this year thanks to lingering covid issues. So they serve as ballast or insulation, and if they happen to land in Montana, what the heck, they'll be viewed with same skepticism as best wishes from the Biden administration.
 
And it's gone...

 
And it's gone...



I think it’s definitely the right move to take it down and I assumed it would happen once it had passed into the Atlantic. Such incidents cannot be allowed to happen. Crashing it in the ocean is safer for everyone and perhaps would cause less damage to the instruments. I’m curious what they used to take it down.

I think the bigger question is why would they do this in the first place- it seems awfully brazen. I’d say perhaps there was an intended target but failed and went off course, but the flight path seems to intercept key military installations. It’s not like China doesn’t have a huge satellite network and plenty of other means of espionage. There just seems to be something about this. Maybe it was just a test of our response?
 
I think the bigger question is why would they do this in the first place- it seems awfully brazen. I’d say perhaps there was an intended target but failed and went off course, but the flight path seems to intercept key military installations. It’s not like China doesn’t have a huge satellite network and plenty of other means of espionage. There just seems to be something about this. Maybe it was just a test of our response?

I think there's a variety of possible reasons.

Distance isn't your friend when trying to intercept low power signals of interest, as received RF energy decreases obeying an inverse square law relationship with distance.

Double the distance, and you're left with 25% of the radiated RF power. Ten times the distance and you lose 99% of the radiated power leaving you with only 1% to capture and process. Apparently this Chinese balloon was cruising at 40,000 feet. Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite obits can range from a little less that 100 miles to around 1,000 miles. Geostationary satellites "orbit" at around 23,000 miles. Semi-synchronus orbit (highly elliptical) satellites have a wide range of altitudes, depending on mission requirements.

As distance increases, pretty soon the signal energy you want to capture is less than the natural atmospheric and thermal noise found in whatever receiver bandwidth you're processing. To compensate you can use a more complicated and much larger directional antenna providing gain to dig out weak signals. The adverse consequence of that is a much narrower antenna beamwidth - meaning that antenna needs to be precisely steered. Or you live with the adverse consequence of potentially not collecting all of the signals that may be of interest because they're not "seen" by the antenna with its narrow beamwidth.

Satellites are expensive and expensive to launch. Balloons are cheap and expendable. Of course there are many drawbacks to balloons - they pretty much move with air currents (though the recent Chinese balloon was said to be maneuverable - I don't know how and to what extent). But... it's very possible that drawback may work for Chinese broad-area survey signals collection objectives in the US.
 
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Be hilarious if it wasn't authorized and they didn't notice until it had left their own airspace. Who knows if maybe not everyone in the Chinese military (or, weather agency) is on board with Xi's refashioning of his post into a new emperor kind of gig. Nothing like putting a big fat hah-hah up there as an embarrassment.

Assuming it was authorized, a cheeky test may indeed have been the point. Weird to think about it that way though. First impulse is shoot the thing down without harm to whatever's below. Second thought is yeah but what's in it? Is it collecting stuff or getting ready to leave a gift behind? Third is the question of could we even notice the drop of some kind of microbial payload? But I suppose the USA had assorted backchannel discussions with China, of which we currently know nothing.

Not surprised Blinken's trip was postponed though. The White House will now be busy for weeks dealing with idiocies emanating from McCarthy's reconfigured intel committee wanting to know why we don't nuke China tomorrow afternoon.
 
To be fair it sounded legit upon a closer look.

IMG_0852.jpg



Is this racist? It feels sort of racist.
 
To be fair it sounded legit upon a closer look.

View attachment 21665


Is this racist? It feels sort of racist.


I dunno... The "totary" and "barroon" references are borderline if not racist. However, the average citizen might be more concerned about a hummingbird-sized drone owned by either a pervert or the local cannabis regulators than about some moron's copycat "Chinese" balloon. What would be funny there is if it IS a Chinese balloon, with the operator figuring it's so obviously inept (and, racist) that it will just be taken as both a copycat gig and a high school prank. Meanwhile it's scarfing up whatever's around to be scarfed up.
 
I dunno... The "totary" and "barroon" references are borderline if not racist. However, the average citizen might be more concerned about a hummingbird-sized drone owned by either a pervert or the local cannabis regulators than about some moron's copycat "Chinese" balloon. What would be funny there is if it IS a Chinese balloon, with the operator figuring it's so obviously inept (and, racist) that it will just be taken as both a copycat gig and a high school prank. Meanwhile it's scarfing up whatever's around to be scarfed up.
Looking back at movies like Breakfast at Tiffany's or A Christmas Story I still laugh at the accents used but know it's not PC to do so any more. My wife is Japanese and even though she has an American accent she's always making fun of and talking like this around the house when it's just her and I. Different times I suppose.
 
A single missile from an F-22 fighter jet from Langley Air Force Base.

Pretty cool HD footage of the take down:

Wow.

This is the F-22’s first air to air kill. If the F-22 is retired without shooting down another aircraft, that’ll be pretty funny. It’s also probably the highest altitude air to air kill ever.

I would have thought they’s want to try and make as small of a hole as possible to slowly deflate it and reduce any damage to the payload. I suppose options are probably limited at 65,000ft though.
 
This is the F-22’s first air to air kill. If the F-22 is retired without shooting down another aircraft, that’ll be pretty funny. It’s also probably the highest altitude air to air kill ever.

I wonder if the F-22 that brought it down will get a small balloon stencilled on its body, just below the canopy?
 
Wow.

This is the F-22’s first air to air kill. If the F-22 is retired without shooting down another aircraft, that’ll be pretty funny. It’s also probably the highest altitude air to air kill ever.

I would have thought they’s want to try and make as small of a hole as possible to slowly deflate it and reduce any damage to the payload. I suppose options are probably limited at 65,000ft though.
Frankly, I'm surprised it took us this long. We're assuming that they knew how to jam it or what it was collecting if they waited this long but it was strange to just leave it floating around up there knowing it's from a foreign spy.
 
Wow.

This is the F-22’s first air to air kill. If the F-22 is retired without shooting down another aircraft, that’ll be pretty funny. It’s also probably the highest altitude air to air kill ever.

I would have thought they’s want to try and make as small of a hole as possible to slowly deflate it and reduce any damage to the payload. I suppose options are probably limited at 65,000ft though.

Just a guess... I suspect the missile that took it down had an inert warhead. And wouldn't be surprised if the event was well-choreographed and planned with Coast Guard and Navy ships being very close to where it hit the water, to aid in recovery.
 
Just a guess... I suspect the missile that took it down had an inert warhead.
Seems like a well aimed BB could've probably taken it out if you had a way to fire it from up there.
 
Seems like a well aimed BB could've probably taken it out if you had a way to fire it from up there.

The F-22 does have a 20mm rotary/gatling type gun.

Perhaps an inert Sidewinder missile with a data link back to the F-22 tracking radar was judged to produce a better outcome of preserving the balloon's payload.
 
Looking back at movies like Breakfast at Tiffany's or A Christmas Story I still laugh at the accents used but know it's not PC to do so any more. My wife is Japanese and even though she has an American accent she's always making fun of and talking like this around the house when it's just her and I. Different times I suppose.

Some of the nextgen of my family are Asian, Mexican, Italian... They crack jokes or use accents once in awhile en famille that they'd not share outside. So I dunno how different the times are in some respects.

Maybe "political correctness" sorta came along because it was easier to leave it all behind rather than sort out when it was ok to use certain terms, say certain things or use certain accents in a joking way, etc.

I know for me it was kind of a jolt to realize that as my nextgen grew up and married, I had to decide whether ok to laugh at some of the wisecracks they might make to each other in the kitchen while helping with a holiday meal, but i certainly realized I couldn't export some of those remarks to a larger community.
 
Frankly, I'm surprised it took us this long. We're assuming that they knew how to jam it or what it was collecting if they waited this long but it was strange to just leave it floating around up there knowing it's from a foreign spy.

I'd love to have been a fly on the wall during what surely must have been some communications between US and Chinese counterparts during this event.
 
China silly.

“In these circumstances, for the United States to insist on using armed force is clearly an excessive reaction that seriously violates international convention,” the statement said. “China will resolutely defend the legitimate rights and interests of the enterprise involved, and retains the right to respond further.”
 
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