Up in the sky…it’s a bird…it’s a plane…it’s a Chinese spy blimp

Citysnaps

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I've been reading about that and find it very disturbing.

Along with the Chinese PLA having a ground station located in Neuquén Province, Argentina, claimed to be used for "civilian peaceful purposes" (not), and satellites that likely pass over or are geosynchronous at a line of longitude shared with the US.

I wouldn't be shocked that the Chinese are collecting all sorts of interesting and very useful information.
 

Cmaier

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I've been reading about that and find it very disturbing.

Along with the Chinese PLA having a ground station located in Neuquén Province, Argentina, claimed to be used for "civilian peaceful purposes" (not), and satellites that likely pass over or are geosynchronous at a line of longitude shared with the US.

I wouldn't be shocked that the Chinese are collecting all sorts of interesting and very useful information.

Imagine what they’re doing with tiktok.
 

Citysnaps

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Imagine what they’re doing with tiktok.

True... but what I'm concerned about is the Chinese now having the capability to tap into military and other very sensitive communications.
 

Cmaier

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True... but what I'm concerned about is the Chinese now having the capability to tap into military and other very sensitive communications.
Think about what they’re doing with huawei :)
 

Eric

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They're saying it's too dangerous to shoot down but in Montana there is a lot of open space that it will surely drift into at some point at which time they should shoot it out of the sky, not sure why there's hesitation here, it's in our airspace.
 

Citysnaps

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Think about what they’re doing with huawei :)

Wouldn't be shocked if their basestations (and possibly even handsets) are signal collection assets that are periodically polled and send information back home.

Back in the late 1990s Huawei, ostensibly wanting to use our digital down converter/upconverter (digital radio and transmitter) chips in their wireless cellular infrastructure systems (basestations), engaged our company, with the possibility of making custom variants of our current chips. To move forward, they wanted detailed design information about our current chips, beyond functional block diagrams. That was obviously a no way and felt pretty creepy. We passed on that.
 

Cmaier

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They're saying it's too dangerous to shoot down but in Montana there is a lot of open space that it will surely drift into at some point at which time they should shoot it out of the sky, not sure why there's hesitation here, it's in our airspace.
I imagine that we are getting more data about what China is up to by just observing it than they are getting by floating around.
 

Citysnaps

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They're saying it's too dangerous to shoot down but in Montana there is a lot of open space that it will surely drift into at some point at which time they should shoot it out of the sky, not sure why there's hesitation here, it's in our airspace.

My guess... I think we're closely monitoring the blimp as it traverses over sensitive areas, making note of potential signals it could be collecting. Also, if we know something about the architecture of their radios, and can intercept the frequency of weak local oscillators used to tune signals, that's valuable information as to what they might be intercepting. Another possibility is the blimp collects/records a ton of signal data over the US and then periodically squirts it up to a satellite for subsequent download to one of their ground stations.

Shooting the blimp down too soon would be losing a lot of valuable information.
 

Cmaier

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My guess... I think we're closely monitoring the blimp as it traverses over sensitive areas, making note of potential signals it could be collecting. Also, if we know something about the architecture of their radios, and can intercept the frequency of weak local oscillators used to tune signals, that's valuable information as to what they might be intercepting. Another possibility is the blimp collects/records a ton of signal data over the US and then periodically squirts it up to a satellite for subsequent download to one of their ground stations.

Shooting the blimp down too soon would be losing a lot of valuable information.
Sounds like you and I had the same idea
 

Citysnaps

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Sounds like you and I had the same idea

IMO, it's not coincidental their ground station in Argentina shares the same line of longitude that passes over the eastern US.

Also...a few years ago, after the ground station was built, the Chinese claimed it was for space research, including doing research on the back side of the Moon, apparently from a Russian satellite orbiting the Moon, which then downloaded the "research" to the ground station. :)
 
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Eric

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Interesting, it sounds like they know what they're doing but I would be a bit uneasy if I were there.
 

Citysnaps

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Interesting, it sounds like they know what they're doing but I would be a bit uneasy if I were there.

Ideally, and it might be a very long shot... If we had a'priori knowledge with respect to what their blimp was going to be up to and when, we could have generated false/bogus signals/communications/information/etc while quieting down systems that were important, letting the blimp collect away and send the data back home..
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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They're saying it's too dangerous to shoot down but in Montana there is a lot of open space that it will surely drift into at some point at which time they should shoot it out of the sky, not sure why there's hesitation here, it's in our airspace.

it is kind of absurd that all our military technology has been outsmarted by a balloon. It’s like a Monty Python skit.
 

Citysnaps

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it is kind of absurd that all our military technology has been outsmarted by a balloon. It’s like a Monty Python skit.

Not so sure about being outsmarted.

Seems to me it's an outstanding opportunity to learn about how China collects US signals intelligence from the other side of the world. However, there's more than just a balloon, some receivers, and antennas involved for that to work.

Some random morning noodling, and pure conjecture:
One advantage a balloon would have as a collection platform (say at a 40,000 foot altitude) with respect to intercepting RF signals of interest, compared to low earth orbit satellites (approx 100 - 1,000 mile orbits), and certainly geosynchronous satellites (approx 23,000 mile orbits) is the relatively low altitude at which they work. And thus their ability to more easily (and economically) capture weak signals using reasonable sized antennas, due to them being close to Earth and the signals captured.

RF power loss over distance (path loss) in free space obeys an inverse square law relationship. For example, double the distance, receive only 1/4 the radiated power. Ten times the distance, receive just 1/100th the power. In other words, the higher your surveillance platform is, the more difficult it is to capture weak signals.

Also...compared to satellites, balloons are cheap, cost nothing to launch, and are expendable.

Assuming the Chinese balloon collects, demodulates, and stores signals of interest while traveling across the US, the question then becomes how does that information get back to China. I imagine that's the trickier part.
 

rdrr

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Probably too high up, but don't we have planes that can jam electrical signals? AWACs and other types of electronic warfare aircraft. I am sure that US military has something we don't know about.
 

Cmaier

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Probably too high up, but don't we have planes that can jam electrical signals? AWACs and other types of electronic warfare aircraft. I am sure that US military has something we don't know about.
Why would we want to jam it? Better to let it transmit, eavesdrop on its transmission, and learn about the transmission technology, encryption, and what the purpose of the balloon is (based on what it is transmitting).

It sounds like the government is sure that the balloon can’t gather any useful information at this point based on precautions they’ve taken, so it’s much more useful to let the thing be and see what it was programmed to do.
 

AG_PhamD

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I’m quite China is all up in our business, probably more than we’d risk imagining. TikTok and Huawei are notable examples, but I think it goes far beyond that.

90%+ of commercial CCTV cameras are made by the Chinese companies Hikvision or Dahua (and often are branded under many other names). They are banned in government buildings in part because these companies employ slave labor, but also because their security is incredibly weak and these companies often ignore fixing known exploits. I imagine many end users of these cameras do not take the proper precautions to keep their data/cameras secure.

And think about all the web connected security cameras people have around their houses now… some of them made and maintained by Chinese companies, ergo the Chinese government. Then there is the rest of the IoT things everywhere from light switches to fridges to toasters, to TV’s, a lot of this stuff coming from Chinese companies. And it should be just as concerning that some Western companies use Chinese servers to handle their data- I would assume because it’s cheaper. The US military years ago rid itself of DJI drones due to extensive data collection.

And let’s not forget China was trying to weasel their way into global PCR testing during the outbreak of the pandemic- perhaps run a dragnet of people’s personal health info.

These days, most power grid transformer production occurs in China because building it’s time and labor intensive work and it’s obviously cheaper to do it there. At least a few years ago the DoE and FBI decided to inspect a Chinese made transformer that was being imported. It turns out that a circuit existed in it’s control system that did not exist in the schematics. This extra feature if activated would turn off the cooling pumps and temperature monitoring, causing the transformer to overheat and wreck itself. These things can cost upwards of many millions and are not easily replaceable- in some cases they’re custom made. Trump banned transformer sales from China. Biden unfortunately reversed this policy- but I suppose we might have better awareness now.

Taking down infrastructure is an extremely troubling issue. The only thing that comforts me about China’s data collection is that they must have so much collected data that they don’t know what to do with it. And I suppose that’s always the difficult thing for intelligence to do, especially with such dragnet approaches, find the needles in endless field of haystacks. But given how well they can monitor their own population and the fact they continue to collect more and more and more, suggests that it’s a worthwhile endeavor for them.

While I doubt these morons have ever thought deeply about their inane suggestions, the Trumpist wing of the party has indeed made it clear that cutting funding to Ukraine to force them to negotiate and give up territory is indeed the goal.

Currently, whatever size they are, they control the House leadership and RNC and the rest of the Republicans have let them. So if they want to block further aid packages they can. Now when push comes to shove could this break the party if it comes down to a vote that matters (presumably by the end of the year for next year)? Would those who are merely posers and non-crazies actually stand up? Maybe. It would require a great deal of political pressure from the Senate Republicans (they have their own crazies but they aren’t in control … so far) and McConnell but it’s conceivable. It is also conceivable that they’ll just fold like on everything else. The debt ceiling fight will be a good test for this.

Biden in control of the executive branch will still have some tools - as far as I can tell (and maybe someone can correct me here if I’m wrong) we haven’t touched lend-lease and they may be saving that to use if the Republicans do muck up further aid for Ukraine, I dunno.

An aircraft flying at high altitude can create a massive debris field. Malaysian Flight MH17 over Ukraine was at 33,000 feet when it was hit by a missile and it’s debris field was 20 square miles. That said, obviously a balloon is much smaller and less dense, not to mention much slower, than a Boeing 777. But the debris from an exploded missile also poses a risk. I would think a ballon popping at 66k ft is unlikely to drop like a rock- instead probably getting blown around wherever the wind takes it.

Plus we probably don’t necessarily know what is onboard- for all we know it could be carrying hazardous chemicals or maybe they’re just seeding plague across the US.

I think the actual reason for not shooting it down is because that only escalates what I would imagine is an already tense situation. Incidents of shooting first and asking questions later when it comes to air incursions and international incidents typically doesn’t have a good outcome.

Secondly, imagine the panic that would ensure if the news was reporting the Air Force was shooting down a Chinese spy craft over the middle of America. Now that the intrusion is recognized and it’s not exactly huge threat to the public, the military can probably manage the situation just fine and escort it to wherever it goes and I’m sure they will collect it.

I would think right now we have a U2 spy plane following our friendly spy balloon across America. Off the top of my head that’s the only plane we have capable of such altitudes.

I’d be curious if the route this balloon took, how quickly we detected it, and if this is the first time or actually much more common. Perhaps all those UFO’s navy pilots are seeing are actually Chinese spy craft and not actually aliens.
 
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