- Joined
- Aug 14, 2020
- Posts
- 4,121
There is no way the guy who defeated Trump in 2020 should be seen as “the only guy who can lose” to Trump in 2024. He’s the incumbent president, for crikes sake. The narrative should be Trump didn’t win more votes in 2016 and he lost by a wider margin of votes in 2020, and what the hell has he done to gain any new support since then, and how is he going to beat the guy who beat him by millions of votes last time and has the advantage of being the sitting president? Yeah, it was a smaller margin if you count swing state margins only, but Georgia has rejected Trumpism multiple times, including within the GOP (by re-electing Kemp and Raffensperger), and also by voting for democrats the last three senate races. Pennsylvania rejected Trumpism. Arizona.
Let’s also not underestimate Trump’s ability to tank himself. To think he’ll make it to Election Day without a self-imposed crisis is really granting him a lot of credit. He’s also seriously losing the plot and has a whole lot of court dates between now and then. I give him a 50/50 chance of winning the primary and a scientific 10% chance of winning the general. Maybe if he doesn’t self-destruct and Biden has a stroke, I’d give him 25%.
That may sound like I slept through 2016, but I’m aware surprises happen. I just don’t see the third time being the charm for him, nor do I see him winning the electoral college again.
Let’s also not underestimate Trump’s ability to tank himself. To think he’ll make it to Election Day without a self-imposed crisis is really granting him a lot of credit. He’s also seriously losing the plot and has a whole lot of court dates between now and then. I give him a 50/50 chance of winning the primary and a scientific 10% chance of winning the general. Maybe if he doesn’t self-destruct and Biden has a stroke, I’d give him 25%.
That may sound like I slept through 2016, but I’m aware surprises happen. I just don’t see the third time being the charm for him, nor do I see him winning the electoral college again.