Afghanistan (Again)

[lizkat]

Fox News' Tucker Carlson blames Taliban gains on 'grotesque' gender studies

The latest Speed Read,/speed-reads,,speed-reads, breaking news, comment, reviews and features from the experts at The Week

theweek.com

includes this delightful segue

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1427381371358568449/


"Flee your big-Corp cell service the way Afghans are fleeing Afghanistan"

Unbelievable. Did that segue without taking a breath. WTF?!

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Two part series in the CSM on how the Taliban managed their comeback. Good read, but you can't tell me that US and allied intel and so the Pentagon weren't aware of the creeping losses in the north --even if they didn't know whether the Taliban would or could pull off a final call to arms and make hay off a swift rout there to parlay that into intimidating regular Afghan army members in the cities that still had more actual support from the US near the end.

Guess it felt more feasible to the Pentagon to keep on trying to kick the can down the road than cop to defeat. Overdid it this time though, and the Trump admin deciding to sit down w/ the Taliban at a table sans the puppet government was an admission of that defeat, more or less.

How the Taliban won: They leveraged Afghan history and culture

The Taliban’s homegrown strategy took advantage of intimidation, official corruption, and extensive networking to roll up the Afghan countryside.

www.csmonitor.com

Afghanistan: How the Taliban won over northern ethnic minorities

The Taliban path to victory in Kabul ran through northern Afghanistan where a decadelong strategy of recruiting ethnic minorities paid off.

www.csmonitor.com

Heh. Somewhere I remember reading that the Pashto word for "cousin" is the same as for "enemy". The Taliban, however, has managed to overcome at least temporarily certain aspects of close-kin and tribalistic feuding by appealing to jihadism as a form of religious commonality instead. Worked for them, for now. But it didn't happen without money. They're going to run short without all the graft off what the US was plugging in.

That may only exacerbate resumption of the civil war... or it may inspire a new round of strange bedfellows in support of a "central" government that various countries would like to do business with in Afghanistan. But the Taliban leadership as well as those prospsective investors are rightly wary of Taliban mid-level enforcers reverting to behavior like they had displayed in ruling Afghanistan from 1996-2001. Doing that again would spook both China and Pakistan, the latter of which almost certainly values commerce w/ China more than it does continuing to back Afghan fundamentalists (even if Pakistan, like Saudi Arabia, has a certain requirement to tap dance around its own fundamentalist adherents and clerics).

Excellent (and thought-provoking) post; however, the Hazaras are striking by their absence from that list - and, already, I have been reading reports of fresh Taliban atrocities (dating from July, i.e. before the fall of Afghanistan or Kabul) committed against Hazaras by the Taliban.

I would expect - especially since Amrullah Saleh and Ahmad Massoud, currently based in the Panjshir Valley - from where they will serve as a rallying point for those who will oppose the Taliban - resistance (from Tajiks, especially, and from Uzbeks, and, as time passes, above all, from Hazaras) to the Taliban and Taliban rule to grow.

Moreover, and hearkening back to the old saying whereby one, is, or has been - "campaigning - (or, conducting an insurrection, or revolution), - in poetry, but is obliged to govern in prose", a shortage of funds (as the international community cuts off aid, and freezes the Afghan state's assets and central bank accounts abroad) may soon show us Taliban administrative short-comings, inexperience and ineptitude.

Studying Islam (and bomb-making) in Pakistan is no substitute for executive and administrative competence and experience.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2021/8/21/why-kabul-is-not-saigon

An interesting piece - well worth a read - from Al Jazeera.

 

[Renzatic]

The war on drugs has never been about drugs, but instead of a way on controlling certain segments of the population. Otherwise alcohol would also be illegal.

I've always thought of the War on Drugs as being a dog and pony show put on for we, the voting public. It did nothing, but made for excellent talking points on the campaign trail.

see also: Tough on Crime.

 

[Huntn]

No.

To my mind, they are two wholly different, distinct and separate things.

You can guarantee - and insist on - and should insist on - ensuring the safety and security of those who worked with you without (simultaneously) appearing to suggest that the state will collapse, or that you expect, assume, or are planning for its collapse.

You owe them a duty of care.

People who worked for you - and with you - in good faith should not have to pay for that with their lives.

And this is something that applies - irrespective of whether the Kabul administration would have lasted one week, one year, that notorious 90 days, or the proverbial forever and a day - after the departure of the US security umbrella.

I understand your argument and I agree with you, and am fine with your disagreement of my analysis. Yes it’s a f****** mess. These Afghans who had faith in the US have been betrayed, *if* they we’re not protected though no fault of their own. So how would you parse blame specifically?
And what specifically would you have expected them to do for a better outcome? Please use bullet points. :/

As I see it there many parties that bear responsibility:

• W
• Republican Leadership leading W
• Democrats who folded under pressure
• Obama
• Trump
• Biden
• US Congress Republicans and Democrats
• US Military Leadership
• Afghan President
• Afghan Military Leadership
• Afghan Military Rank and File
• Anyone with accurate foresight of the reality of the situation.

Although he is the President and has accepted responsibility, I’m not going to assign Biden with 100% blame until I get the background beyond what is commonly known.

I do know that if you look at the actions taking by Trump Administration to draw down US military forces in Afghanistan before he was booted out, and that after 20 years of preparing the Afghan army to stand on their own, without knowing the behind the scenes Intel, an assumption could be made that the 300k people who composed the Afghan Army would have lasted at least a month. instead of folding on day 1 and because of that, a lot of these people were living on borrowed time.

Ultimately, we invaded, we were in control, we were responsible for the outcome. The Republicans who did not dare question Trump, although imo Trump set up anyone who replaced him, and they will try to make political hay in this regard… and the dummies will cheer. And as a result of this if the Republicans retake Congress and the Presidency, maybe we’ll head to Ireland (said in a moment of frustration).

As I‘ll say for the last time, imo, which I accept agreement about, based on what I don’t know, if the US Army had any reason to think the Afghan Army was going to fold, they should have spent the last 6 months gathering their chicks quietly. But during this period of time how many people were anticipating this? How many of the chicks were willing to abandon Afghanistan until reality hit them up side the head after it became very difficult to get them out safely?

 

[Huntn]

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2021/8/21/why-kabul-is-not-saigon

An interesting piece - well worth a read - from Al Jazeera.

I agree, with this, the US was supposed to have learned our lesson in Vietnam, we should have never invaded. When that happened we had W and Neocons running the Federal Govt cheerled by the Republicans, and in the process, pissed away several fortunes, a lot of lives, and 20 years trying to make it work, without becoming colonialists. So two monumental strikes against the US to piss away $$$ fortunes on lost causes.

Are we any smarter today? Will we ever learn? A lot of you know I’m a pessimist about or future.

 

[Huntn]

The war on drugs has never been about drugs, but instead of a way on controlling certain segments of the population. Otherwise alcohol would also be illegal.

I’ll say TWOD is a wrong headed fantasy trying to control certain drugs without looking at the big picture, nor dealing with the problem in the correct manner, beyond drug dealers, in many cases treating addiction of illegal substances not as a medical issue but as a punitive issue putting the final nail in many already struggling/ruined lives.

 

[Herdfan]

I agree, with this, the US was supposed to have learned our lesson in Vietnam, we should have never invaded. When that happened we had W and Neocons running the Federal Govt cheerled by the Republicans, and in the process, pissed away several fortunes, a lot of lives, and 20 years trying to make it work, without becoming colonialists. So two every expensive strikes when the US had $$$ to piss away on lost causes.

Are we any smarter today? Will we ever learn? A lot of you know I’m a pessimist about or future.

Can't disagree with your assessment of the outcome, but while hammering the Republicans you seem to forget there was ONLY ONE Dem vote against it.

 

[Herdfan]

I’ll say TWOD is a wrong headed fantasy trying to control certain drugs without looking at the big picture, nor dealing with the problem in the correct manner, beyond drug dealers, in many cases treating addiction of illegal substances not as a medical issue but as a punitive issue putting the final nail in many already struggling/ruined lives.

This is part of the problem, especially as it relates to cannabis. Not everyone who uses it is addicted anymore than everyone who drinks is an alcoholic. Some college kid who hits a bong in his apartment on Saturday night does not need addiction counseling. Yet that is the solution proffered by addition specialists and law enforcement. How about just leave them alone?

 

[Huntn]

Can't disagree with your assessment of the outcome, but while hammering the Republicans you seem to forget there was ONLY ONE Dem vote against it.

The Republicans pushed it, were in the position to do so. In a post here today I mentioned the Democrats who caved. I realize there is an argument that there was much momentum for this on the heals 9-11, our genius citizens who swallowed the W/Cheney narrative, and I think the elected Dems feared they’d be voted out of office. But I’d put a higher price on doing the right thing which would have been to vote no on invading Afghanistan. As a Minnesota resident at the time, I was happy it was Paul Wellstone who had the balls.

For the record, I was against both invading Iraq and Afghanistan from the start when it was an idea that squirted out of W's ass. But I was not against taking action against real, credible terrorist threats.

We spent so much money there we could have entirely rebuilt our infastructure, but instead we pissed away Trillions. I think many don’t realize just how much money that is, and for what ZERO return, 100% loss, huge numbers of military and civilians dead.

If any country has squandered inherently great economical advantages, it has been the United States of America. We have blown it and we are now running up an insurmountable national debt because this is our path to failure, we're a bunch of sheep bawing to be sheared by Capitslists, because apparently it’s out destiny. We are too busy fighting among ourselves, focused on unimportant bull shit, destroying our republic, because at least half of us don’t believe in democracy, don’t live in the real world, can’t focus on what’s important, the common good, and have our heads up our asses. We are a joke. It makes me want to cry, but instead I’ll go find a good movie to take my mind off it.

 

[Huntn]

This is part of the problem, especially as it relates to cannabis. Not everyone who uses it is addicted anymore than everyone who drinks is an alcoholic. Some college kid who hits a bong in his apartment on Saturday night does not need addiction counseling. Yet that is the solution proffered by addition specialists and law enforcement. How about just leave them alone?

Drugs should not be illegal, but distribution and possession of large quantities can be illegal. Start treating addiction as a medical issue, stop throwing people in jail for possession, instead offer rehab programs at a fraction of the cost of hard jail time. It’s not that hard. Anyone says there is a racist element to the war on drugs, I’m not in a position to disagree with them, not with the way sentences have historically be handed out in this country based on skin color.

 

[lizkat]

Moreover, and hearkening back to the old saying whereby one, is, or has been - "campaigning - or, conducting an insurrection, or revolution, - in poetry, but is obliged to govern in prose", a shortage of funds (as the international community cuts off aid, and freezes the Afghan state's assets and central bank accounts abroad) may soon show us Taliban administrative short-comings, inexperience and ineptitude.

Studying Islam (and bomb-making) in Pakistan is no substitute for executive and administrative competence and experience.

Too right. Throw in the uncertainties of a covid pandemic that's not going away as soon as the world might once have thought, and in the near term at least, Afghanistan is likely to be left to the mercies of the Taliban and tribal struggles for power.

China's the most eager to fill in the external power vacuum and establish actual deals for extraction of minerals from Afghanistan, but they have little tolerance for social unrest and are already getting a taste of militant objection to their infrastructure investments in Pakistan.

We spent so much money there we could have entirely rebuilt our infastructure, but instead we pissed away Trillions. I think many don’t realize just how much money that is, and for what ZERO return, 100% loss, huge numbers of military and civilians dead.

A lot of contracting firms are going to miss the boost to their bottom lines... they made out like bandits even given the risk plus undoubtedly all the baksheesh and other "taxations".

 

[Herdfan]

The Republicans pushed it, were in the position to do so. In a post here today I mentioned the Democrats who caved. I realize there is an argument that there was much momentum for this on the heals 9-11, our genius citizens who swallowed the W/Cheney narrative, and I think the elected Dems feared they’d be voted out of office. But I’d put a higher price on doing the right thing which would have been to vote no on invading Afghanistan. As a Minnesota resident at the time, I was happy it was Paul Wellstone who had the balls.

It was not. It was Barbara Lee.

 

[Herdfan]

Yes, people and politicians are unhappy with the withdrawal and Afghanistan reverting to Taliban rule.

However, if following through with the withdrawal is how Biden made you look weak and incompetent, the only alternative would have been to cancel the withdrawal, increase the presence and stay indefinitely. Would you have preferred that?

The world knows we have the military superiority to pretty much do what we need to do to evacuate our citizens and those who helped us. We look weak because we don't have the will to do it.

 

[Pumbaa]

The world knows we have the military superiority to pretty much do what we need to do to evacuate our citizens and those who helped us. We look weak because we don't have the will to do it.

How did you get that from the article you linked?

If we’re just going to throw opinions around, how about this outside perspective regarding what the world “knows”:

Yes, the world knows that you have the military capability to do what you wrote. The world also knows you would go pretty far for your citizens, officially posing with your scary military and economical might, and then really getting it done with special ops raids or backroom deals. The world also knows that you don’t really give a rat’s arse about the people who helped you. The world has known these things since way before Biden took office. I expect the world will still know these things long after he’s gone.

 

[Huntn]

It was not. It was Barbara Lee.

I may have been thinking of the Iraq invasion, another winning idea from Team America. We like invading other countries to push our ideals, punish bad guys, and make some $$$, while bankrupting ourselves and trying to take down democracy on the home front.

 

[lizkat]

The world knows we have the military superiority to pretty much do what we need to do to evacuate our citizens and those who helped us. We look weak because we don't have the will to do it.

Well apparently the administration has enough will now, whether always in the works or maybe only as result of being butt-kicked for a week plus seeing how it's going and realizing the logistics need work. White House now talking about activating the WWII-era Civil Reserve Airfleet (CRAF) provision of the DoT and DoD to get commercial airlines to fly Afghanistan evacuees (Americans and others) out of bases in Qatar, Bahrain and Germany that are getting over crowded from the airlifts departing Kabul. This is a voluntary program (although contractual) and crews working the flights generally get above-market pay for doing it.

WSJ News Exclusive | U.S. Considers Ordering Commercial Airlines to Help in Afghan Evacuation

The Biden administration is making preparations to invoke an emergency civil aviation program, while adding to the number of U.S. bases that can house Afghan evacuees.

www.wsj.com

The U.S. military has deployed dozens of C-17 cargo aircraft to fly evacuees out of Kabul. Those jets aren’t considered suitable for the long ride over the Atlantic to U.S. bases, officials said. Many have had seats removed to create more space for evacuees and a typical C-17 has only two onboard restrooms.

Some planes are carrying about 400 people, and one military jet took off with more than 600 evacuees, officials have said. Such conditions, one military official said, are untenable for longer flights.

Dulles International Airport, outside of Washington, D.C., is expected to become the central processing site for a surge of Afghan evacuees, officials said.

Pentagon officials are preparing at least one more U.S. base, Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst in New Jersey, to begin to receive Afghan refugees. But as the crisis in Kabul unfolds and other nations have grown wary of housing large numbers of Afghan evacuees, the U.S. has begun taking a harder look at its own facilities in the U.S. and overseas, officials said.

A tent city is being erected at the New Jersey base and medical supplies, food, water, restrooms, lighting and other equipment are being installed there now, officials said. Evacuees could be there by next week, they said.

Other bases being studied as potential housing sites include Fort Pickett, Va., Camp Atterbury, Ind., Camp Hunter Liggett, Calif., and Fort Chaffee, Ark. Pentagon officials are also looking at American bases in Japan, Korea, Germany, Kosovo, Bahrain and Italy, officials said.

The Pentagon earlier had identified Fort Lee, Va., Fort Bliss, Texas, and Fort McCoy in Wisconsin as bases that were to begin housing refugees.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Opinion | America turned a blind eye to Afghan corruption. It backfired spectacularly.

Time and again, the U.S. seemed to be prioritizing security over efforts to combat kleptocracy. But in the end, it got neither.

www.nbcnews.com

At least we successfully exported something American, corruption. Silver lining?

 

[Huntn]

Opinion | America turned a blind eye to Afghan corruption. It backfired spectacularly.

Time and again, the U.S. seemed to be prioritizing security over efforts to combat kleptocracy. But in the end, it got neither.

www.nbcnews.com

At least we successfully exported something American, corruption. Silver lining?

This is my throw it at the wall and see if it sticks thought, we put our faith in a group of people the ones in charge, who were in some manner unworthy, corrupt, to playing us all along, and it cost us 20 years of effort. This is really on all of us.

And you know there is a group of politicians who are going to try to hang this on Biden. In hindsight it illustrates perfectly why it was long overdue to cut our loses. And why the next President who suggests we invade a country can be immediately be impeached for incompetence and to help him or her remove their head from their ass.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

This is my throw it at the wall and see if it sticks thought, we put our faith in a group of people the ones in charge, who were in some manner unworthy, to corrupt, to playing us all along, and it cost us 20 years of effort. This is really on all of us.

And you know there is a group of politicians who are going to try to hang this on Biden. In hindsight it illustrates perfectly why it was long overdue to cut our loses. And why the next President who suggests we invade a country can be immediately be impeached for incompetence and to help him or her remove their head from their ass.

It also mentions how we stopped corruption investigations into those with power and influence. No real reason given. Sounds pretty American to me.