Afghanistan (Again)

Well....I guess we are like this.

We're not only like this but we doubled down from 2001 and went into Iraq in 2003 because... let's see...

It wasn't going to be bad enough that 19 of the 9/11 hijackers were Saudi jihadists and we took it out on Afghanistan for sheltering their trainers? [ EDIT: 15, not 19 were Saudis ]

What I won't let Trump off the hook for is exiting the JCPOA unilaterally.

The rest is on Bush and Obama for letting the Pentagon and Congress make hay off the American flag wavers' firm belief that there's nothing like a war to keep the economy rolling.

Iran must be laughing its ass off by now, really, despite its dire economic straits.
 
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We are not better than this. We do this time and time again. The US has had months to take care of its allies in Afghanistan and just put it off. They could have been transported to Guam two months ago. Of course, they could never have all been sent to the US because despite the help they gave us, half of the people in this country would have seen them as foreigners and they don’t want immigrants. You know the people I mean. And yet you know those are the ones who will complain the loudest.

It's interesting that some are now trying to compare this to the end of the Vietnam war, as if the wars that proceeded the exits were of little consequence. It's all about the appearance of how we left. We'll just sweep all the death and destruction that occurred while we were there under the rug.
 
One interesting thing: you will almost certainly never see Afghanistan's economy under the Taliban becoming anything like Vietnam's did after we left.

Unless you consider opium growing to be a thriving economy. But somehow I can't see it being listed on a stock exchange.
 
The situation was - and the German government today alluded to it - was that the allies were not in a position to keep troops (or police, or civilians) - irrespective of whether or not they wished to be able to remain in place - in the country (Afghanistan) once the security umbrella provided by the presence of US forces (and that included other NATO countries, or third party countries - such as NZ and Canada) was withdrawn.

They didn't have the military resources - or military reach - to do so, and so were unable to protect their own people once the security umbrella that the US presence allowed for, was withdrawn.

That’s very true. As good as the British armed forces are, we just don’t have enough personnel, but we are a small island. The US needed our help though as we seem to offer a level of strategic planning that makes us a very attractive ally. I do wish we’d sat this one out though as we lost so many good men and women for what now feels like nothing.
 
No, because a vast majority of Americans wanted to get out.

We also wanted some kind of feelgood fairytale ending along the way. That's also how most of us are...

But I think there is a difference between wanting to get out and seeing what happened a day after we left. Those videos of Afghan's falling off the planes will not be easily forgotten.
 
But I think there is a difference between wanting to get out and seeing what happened a day after we left. Those videos of Afghan's falling off the planes will not be easily forgotten.
People voted for 2 presidents in a row that promised to leave Afghanistan. It’s quite clear Americans overwhelmingly don’t want soldiers there.

What did people think would happen after we left? The Taliban was in control when we first attacked, and they are back in control now.

We should have never gone in to begin with, and we left at LEAST 10 years too late.
 
But I think there is a difference between wanting to get out and seeing what happened a day after we left. Those videos of Afghan's falling off the planes will not be easily forgotten.

Nor should they be forgotten. Desperation drives people to do things that are impossible and are attempted anyway. Let's not forget that people leaped from the World Trade Towers' uppermost floors on 9/11. They did not really believe they would survive. God knows what people sticking to a cargo plane departing a runway believed. It speaks to their fear of the situation they believed they were facing had they remained.

Like lots of Americans, I lived through watching and reading about the fall of Saigon. Like far fewer, I lost someone I loved during that embassy evacuation in 1975. So I've had some deep preconditioning about the concluding scenarios of our military adventures as they relate to getting people out of embassies and airports in the last days of a military departure, in the absence of a successful political settlement ahead of time. There are no graceful exits in those situations. People do what they do. People die and get hurt. It's part and parcel of the war itself.
 
What did people think would happen after we left? The Taliban was in control when we first attacked, and they are back in control now.
I expected them to have at least a reasonable exit plan, not to have mass crowds freaking out, getting rescued from rooftops out and falling off of planes.
 
We should have never gone in to begin with, and we left at LEAST 10 years too late.

I still think we should have just lobbed a few cruise missiles somewhere in 2001, and maybe not even Afghanistan. I'd have liked to see some unoccupied palace of the then Saudi King laid waste as a hint to get his clerics under control instead of filtering money to them in appeasement and as reward for their tolerating the royals' self-serving and decadent ways.

And if we're so into climate change mitigation, we shouldn't be digging fossil fuels out of the ground any more anyway, much less encouraging the Saudis to keep doing it for us. Turn the deserts in our southwest into giant solar panels already, make more of them here for residential installations, create better solar storage facilities and transmission grids, and so a pox on the dead dinosaurs...

But no... the allure of using the last gallon of black gold to make a Barbie doll head is too strong, I guess.

We're banking on pulling a last minute miracle out of our hats on climate change, same as we apparently figured we could pull off a miraculously peaceful transition of power from a propped-up Afghan central government to a vicious band of fundamentalist thugs. The Taliban leadership is a crew whose penchant for lies could give Trump a run for the money.

At least Biden will manage to move the country on from this debacle in a measured and sane way, and eventually get some help back in there for Afghanistan via non-USA NGOs and etc., even though our exit as chief warlord has been (perhaps unavoidably) botched. Meanwhile the jokes about Trump's erstwhile incompetence in foreign affairs and in particular with respect to his understanding of power relationships in Central Asia and the Middle East may not be far off the mark. I was fond enough of this one to hang onto it...

Trump and McMaster.jpg
 
The Taliban taking over the entire nation in one weekend with basically zero opposition was clearly not what they expected.

Well then they weren't listening or they were poorly advised. There are doubtless American (and other nationality) veterans of service in Afghanistan who could have told them: once it was clear the US $$$ faucet was going to be turned off, the Taliban was going to open their opium-dough spigot full blast and buy their way into enough power for a convincing takeover. Whether they can hang on with the loyalty and weapons they bought is another question. But the quick flip of allegiance? Who's really surprised doesn't understand what centuries of deep corruption, weak government and poverty add up to.
 
No, because then Trump would still be in office afterwards.

No matter how mediocre Biden may be, how badly he fucked this up, we can at least rest assured that if he truly goes off the deep end, he can at least be held accountable.

And, it's worth noting again that the reason that the SIV system is so behind, and thousands of Afghani translators got left on the tarmac was because of Miller and his band of morons and crystal light supremacists, who undermined the State Dept. and USCIS.

So, spare me any right-winger Trump-humper moaning about all those people. They had 4 years to give a whit. And, I thought that Pompeo had created peace in our time. No surprise he's another Chamberlain.

But I think there is a difference between wanting to get out and seeing what happened a day after we left. Those videos of Afghan's falling off the planes will not be easily forgotten.

The proverbial left is going to remember this, but the right will forget about it the minute that someone says Critical Race Theory or Hungary. unless it remains an effective attack on Biden. Once Afghanistan stops being an effective cudgel they'll forget which continent it's on.

Meanwhile, a lot of people who served time are horrified by this, but they're not really mad at Biden so much as frustrated that all that blood, treasure and sweat meant almost nothing. And, I suspect that the Bush-era, along with Cheney and the KBR/Haliburton fiasco is going to get dragged out.

Bush's legacy was burnished by Trump's absolutely failures, but it's still going to look pretty bad in the relief of history and the collapse of Kabul.
 
Worth your time:

In The Atlantic, "The Taliban's Return is Catastrophic for Women" by Lynsey Addario.

From the piece:

...
As a single American woman, I needed to find a way to move around Afghanistan with a stand-in husband, and to take photographs without being caught (photography of any living thing was forbidden under the Taliban). I made contact with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, which was one of the few international organizations still functioning in Afghanistan, and the Comprehensive Disabled Afghans Programme, a UN agency that sought to rehabilitate those injured by the many land mines spread across the country. The groups arranged for men to escort me, along with drivers and translators, through the provinces of Ghazni, Logar, Wardak, Nangarhar, Herat, and Kabul to surreptitiously photograph and interview Afghan women. I quickly learned the virtue of being a female photojournalist, despite the challenges: I had free access to women in spaces where men were culturally or legally prohibited to enter.

From May 2000 to March 2001, over the course of three separate trips, I traveled around with my cameras and film tucked away in a small bag, visiting private homes, women’s hospitals, secret schools for girls. I went to underground mixed-gender weddings where the Titanic soundtrack bounced off the concrete basement walls as men and heavily made-up women (with nail polish) danced around in a display of pure joy—a simple pleasure that was punishable by execution under the regime controlling the streets outside.

It's a beautiful piece marked by really good photographs, and it explains a lot of where we are, and where Afghanistan might be going.
 

Appalling.

And shameful.

As with many of the other Embassies under discussion these past days - and, indeed, the Ministry of the Interior, all of which I am familiar with - I've been in the Dutch Embassy, for meetings and briefings.

I will say that I have read that the British Ambassador has remained in Kabul airport, - where a sort of pop-up embassy, personified & staffed by him seems to exist - personally arranging exits for marooned Brits, and visas for stranded Afghan staff.
 
Worth your time:

In The Atlantic, "The Taliban's Return is Catastrophic for Women" by Lynsey Addario.

From the piece:



It's a beautiful piece marked by really good photographs, and it explains a lot of where we are, and where Afghanistan might be going.


This could get interesting. They might be attempting a balancing act, at least initially. They might realize that after 20 years of the people experiencing more freedoms it’s going to be a lot harder to bring back the old oppression.

Even within the US the Republicans know once Americans experience expanded social services its going to be a lot harder for them to dial them back and still have support.
 
A takeover that Trump and MAGA could've only dreamed of
 

This could get interesting. They might be attempting a balancing act, at least initially. They might realize that after 20 years of the people experiencing more freedoms it’s going to be a lot harder to bring back the old oppression.

Even within the US the Republicans know once Americans experience expanded social services its going to be a lot harder for them to dial them back and still have support.
I think it may be a bit more subtle than that, but, yes, agreed, they may be attempting some sort of balancing act, at least, initially.

And yes, people have experienced more freedoms (in the cities, the ethnicities who are not Pashtun, women to name but three groups whose lives were immeasurably improved over the past twenty years - and here, I will just throw in the fact that I, personally, have observed, on countless occasions, crocodile lines of girls, young girls and older girls, and boys, too, all attired in neat school uniforms, heading to or from school in Kabul), and will not take kindly to their removal.

The Taliban will find that keeping, and holding and maintaining their rule (especially in the cities, and other ethnic regions) - without some form of consent - which may require some degree of a balancing act - on the part of the ruled - is not the same as military (and political) victories. If they insist on ruling by force, inevitably, some will contest that.

Moreover, foreign aid - which has comprised between two thirds (67%) and 80% of the state budget will be cut entirely - Germany has announced today that all foreign aid to Afghanistan will cease (and Germany was a generous donor) - will be cut, or its retention may be conditional on some degree of compromise on the part of the Taliban, or an indication that they will be prepared to be more lenient on matters of human rights, civil rights, and women's rights, than they were when they ruled the country previously.

And there is the issue of the position of the other ethnicities.

Under Taliban rule in the 1990s, the Hazaras - who are Shia - were treated atrociously; I cannot see Iran tolerating that - as the leading Shia state in the world, domestically, they cannot afford to be seen to tolerate that, quite apart from any theological ties they have to the Hazara, and this is the case, even if, they - for reasons of realpolitik, - wish to have an amicable relationship with the Taliban.

And then, there are the Tajiks and Uzbeks, two of the other ethnic groups.

The security forces were mainly comprised of Tajiks (and some Uzbeks; far fewer Pashtun served, from what I could see).

Apparently, several military planes - full of fleeing security forces - landed in both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan on Sunday; I would be willing to wager that the people those planes carried were soldiers (and police, possibly) who were Tajiks and Uzbeks.

Thus, these countries - now host to an unknown number of trained troops and security personnel from Afghanistan - will be keeping a close eye - not just on relations with Afghanistan, and on proceedings within Afghanistan - but also on how people of their own ethnicity are treated by the Taliban (who, if anything, traditionally were an extreme expression of Pashtun nationalism expressed in an ascetic and severe interpretation of Islam).

On Sunday, Tajikistan refused to allow the plane carrying fleeing President Ashraf Ghani - and his immediate entourage - to land in the country; while some twits on Twitter have sneered at what they described as a "lack of Muslim solidarity" I think it goes far deeper than that.

Ghani - who is Pashtun - seems to have had difficulty in dealing with dissenting opinions, and voices, and was famously incapable of forging harmonious relations with the Tajik members of his administration.

I don't doubt for one minute that he was haunted by the appalling death - murder - of former President Najibullah - who was cruelly murdered by the Taliban in 1996 - and, while such an end may have awaited him, the manner of his departure - he didn't formally resign, nor did he formally put any sort of transition or interim administration with any sort of authority in place - left an awful lot to be desired; it was an abdication of responsibility of the worst kind, and left those of his government who had remained loyal and had stayed at their posts terribly exposed, and betrayed.
 
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