Even more than the hope that they may retain and secure some degree of foreign aid - which, remember, made up by far the greatest percentage of the Afghan state budget (between 67-78% of the total, depending on the year and source), the Taliban will be hoping to secure recognition for their regime.
Their original regime - the one that came to power in the 1990s - was recognised by only three states in the world; these were Pakistan (and even then, the Taliban didn't recognise the border/boundary with Pakistan, the Durand Line), KSA (Saudi-Arabia) and UAE.
Thus, I would argue that the emollient tone struck by the Taliban in today's press conference (and also agreeing to being interviewed by a female journalist on Tolo News - an excellent TV channel, by the way) are all part of a plan to persuade international interlocutors that Taliban 2.0 is a lot less inflexible than was its predecessor - in a bid to win diplomatic recognition, which would make any subsequent attempts to squash (internal) resistance considerably easier, by claiming that it is illegitimate and illegal.
Meanwhile, the (former) vice-president, Amrullah Saleh, (he was a very able head of the intelligence agency, the NDS), supposedly currently holed up in the Panjshir Valley (which was never captured by the Taliban in the original conflict), apparently in company with the son of the legendary Ahmad Shah Massoud, - also named Ahmad Massoud, think of the weight of history on those shoulders - has raised the flag of the old Northern Alliance, and named himself the legitimate acting - or caretaker - president, citing the constitution, and stating that this is being done in the absence of the departed (fled) president (Ashraf Ghani), and in the absence of any legal mechanism (a major failing on Ghani's part) to ensure the succession or a formal, legal, transition of power.
My guess is that the Taliban will attempt to sound as moderate and sane and flexible as possible in the hope of winning formal diplomatic recognition (from China, Russia, possibly some western states - e.g. the US) as quickly as possible so that they can then portray any possible, or potential, conflict from the north (the Tajik areas) as an illegal insurrection, and deal with it accordingly.
So, this is not just about securing aid - though that is imperative given the percentage of the state's budget that foreign aid comprises - but also about persuading the "international community" to formally recognise the Taliban as the legal, and legitimate rulers of Afghanistan.
Just summoning my own post - No 172 - rather than re-writing it, which discusses, among other things, how Amrullah Saleh - the Vice-President of the outgoing administration - has declared himself caretaker president, (claiming authority under the existing constitution - not yest repealed by the Taliban - in the absence or incapacity of the president) raised the flag of the Northern Alliance, (in the Panjshir Valley) and has sworn that he will never recognise the Taliban nor will he ever surrender to them.
FFS if true
https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1427973568630083587/
SOMEBODY needs to write US and so many others a check.
In hundred dollar bills that might weigh 3726lbs or more than a ton & a half in bags.
Okay:
Firstly, the source for this is Tajikistan, or rather, the Afghan Embassy in Tajikistan, which - as of a few hours ago, has recognised Amrullah Saleh as the President of Afghanistan, (symbolically removing Ashraf Ghani's portrait and replacing it with that of Amrullah Saleh).
In fact, the Afghan Embassy in Dushanbe (Tajikistan) has sought the arrest of Ghani over what they describe as "state treasury theft".
Saleh's own tweets (which have been retweeted by other Afghans - Tajiks and Uzbeks - holding senior military rank) have made it clear that he will never recognise nor accept Taliban rule, and he has requested support from those who share his views.
Thus far, Ahmad Massoud (a politician, and son of the legendary Ahmad Shah Massoud) and General Dostum (the Uzbek warlord) have made it clear that Saleh has their full support, and yes, this will include military support.
The state of Tajikistan seems to have followed suit and has recognised Amrullah Saleh as the legitimate President of Afghanistan.
This is being reported sympathetically in Indian media sources (bear in mind the fact that India would be pro-Afghanistan, especially any Afghan administration that loathes Pakistan - and Saleh, who headed the Afghan intelligence services - and was exceptionally well regarded when he did so - detests Pakistan which he views as seeking to destabilise Afghanistan), and on RT (Russian news).
Re Ashraf Ghani, the Tajiks in Tajikistan and in Afghanistan will view him as arrogant, incompetent (above all, a micro-managing militarily incompetent individual, with a mulish reluctance to delegate military matters to those who were qualified to act and adjudicate on military affairs- he was a technocrat), a traitor, and - with good reason - as an architect of his own political doom.
Once upon a distant time, Ghani was an outstanding Finance Minister in Hamid Karzai's first government (at the time, he was considered - and had been voted - the best Finance Minister in Asia), and was - by reputation - not at all corrupt.
But, things can change, and, change for the worse, and - if true, this is appalling - and I will admit that Ghani didn't remotely cover himself in glory by the irresponsible and furtive manner of his departure, nor by his self-serving silence since then.
Not to mention they've essentially handed over all of the weapons we armed them with.
Not quite all.
This story hasn't played out yet.
In Jalalabad today, (and this may also have happened in a second city), the Taliban shot at (and appear to have killed some people) demonstrators and marchers who protested - while waving the Afghan state flag - at the replacement of the Afghan State Flag by the Taliban's white standard, which they themselves had removed.
