Afghanistan (Again)

Reading about how the Taliban treated women, if the government wanted an Army that would have fought the Taliban off, they would have instituted a majority-female force. Are men going to give their lives to fight the Taliban, who promise to reinstate a male-dominated society?

As far as I know, Afghan women weren’t even allowed in the Afghan army... if I’m wrong please correct me.
 
Due to this, Biden's approval ratings have just slipped below 50% for the first time. Wonder if this clusterfuck is going to be what defines his presidency.
I listened to Biden’s address yesterday regarding Afghanistan and his approach seemed reasonable although this is his side of the situation, assurance from the host country that they were ready to fight and defend themselves, but in reality had zero will to fight, sending military people there to die, a trillion(s) $$$ sink hole from a populace at least those willing to fight, did not want us there. We have to ask ourselves were we willing to carry a country into perpetuity? Are we Colonialists?

Country building is a losing strategy at least it has been for the US. They may have mineral riches there, but were we ever going to be in a position to get them out of the ground?

As far as Biden’s popularity you have to ask yourself do the American people know what they want? This strikes me as political opportunists, more wanting your cake and eating it too.
 
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Reading about how the Taliban treated women, if the government wanted an Army that would have fought the Taliban off, they would have instituted a majority-female force. Are men going to give their lives to fight the Taliban, who promise to reinstate a male-dominated society?

As far as I know, Afghan women weren’t even allowed in the Afghan army... if I’m wrong please correct me.
Reports are no women run business, limited education allowed, wrap them up in a burkas and parade them around on a leash like birds in their guided cages, the sex objects they regard them as.
 
Reading about how the Taliban treated women, if the government wanted an Army that would have fought the Taliban off, they would have instituted a majority-female force. Are men going to give their lives to fight the Taliban, who promise to reinstate a male-dominated society?

As far as I know, Afghan women weren’t even allowed in the Afghan army... if I’m wrong please correct me.

Can't speak with any authority for the Army, but, I can confirm that women were allowed (encouraged) to join the police, and that they were mentored by senior police officers (female) from UK police forces (the UK was a member of the EU at the time) and some senior Dutch female police officers, (the western women held Inspector, Chief Inspector and Superintendent ranks mostly), - among others - who themselves, were extremely impressive and very committed and dedicated.

The EU (and before that, the German government) worked closely with the Afghan police (and with the prosecutor's office, the AGO, Ministries of Justice & the Interior, etc - i.e. the rule of law & law enforcement stuff of civil society - the EU had nothing to do with military missions), re attempting to help mentor and help train the police, and prosecutors - anyway, I do recall meeting with a number of (Afghan) female police colonels, and one female police Brigadier.

As with so much else, this - recruiting, training, protecting and promoting - women police officers (who were under significant threat to their lives from the Taliban, even more so than their male colleagues) - was far easier to achieve in the cities, and in the non-Pashtun areas of the country - the cities were far more liberal and open than the rural areas of the country, and basic stuff - such as separate rest rooms for women, - could be planned & discussed in the cities, but proved very difficult to achieve in some rural areas.
 
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Can't speak with any authority for the Army, but, I can confirm that women were allowed (encouraged) to join the police.

The EU (and before that, the German government) worked closely with the Afghan police (and with the prosecutor's office, the AGO, Ministries of Justice & the Interior, etc - i.e. the rule of law & law enforcement stuff of civil society - the EU had nothing to do with military missions), re attempting to help mentor and help train the police, and prosecutors - anyway, I do recall meeting with female police colonels, and one female police Brigadier.

As with so much else, this - recruiting, training, protecting and promoting - women police officers (who were under significant threat, even more so than their male colleagues) - was far easier to achieve in the cities, - the cities were far more liberal and open than the rural areas of the country - and in the non-Pashtun areas of the country.
The Taliban is making some noises that make it appear that they will not return to the oppressive ways of the late 90s/early 2000s. I don’t know if they will follow through, but presumably they want: trade, foreign aid, etc, etc... and if they return to the old ways, that will all go away.
 
The Taliban is making some noises that make it appear that they will not return to the oppressive ways of the late 90s/early 2000s. I don’t know if they will follow through, but presumably they want: trade, foreign aid, etc, etc... and if they return to the old ways, that will all go away.
One woman asked them about face coverings and their first reaction was "all women will have to keep their entire faces covered". Off to a great start there. Most experts (at least from what I've seen) are skeptical at best that they won't turn back the clock. They have no real structure and lead by force, I wouldn't expect to see any democracy coming out of this.

20 years, thousands of dead people on both sides, trillions of dollars and zero difference. Any Republican who bitches about the cost of school lunches or taking care of the homeless should first have to explain this first.
 
I think it may be a bit more subtle than that, but, yes, agreed, they may be attempting some sort of balancing act, at least, initially.

And yes, people have experienced more freedoms (in the cities, the ethnicities who are not Pashtun, women to name but three groups whose lives were immeasurably improved over the past twenty years - and here, I will just throw in the fact that I, personally, have observed, on countless occasions, crocodile lines of girls, young girls and older girls, and boys, too, all attired in neat school uniforms, heading to or from school in Kabul), and will not take kindly to their removal.

The Taliban will find that keeping, and holding and maintaining their rule (especially in the cities, and other ethnic regions) - without some form of consent - which may require some degree of a balancing act - on the part of the ruled - is not the same as military (and political) victories. If they insist on ruling by force, inevitably, some will contest that.

Moreover, foreign aid - which has comprised between two thirds (67%) and 80% of the state budget will be cut entirely - Germany has announced today that all foreign aid to Afghanistan will cease (and Germany was a generous donor) - will be cut, or its retention may be conditional on some degree of compromise on the part of the Taliban, or an indication that they will be prepared to be more lenient on matters of human rights, civil rights, and women's rights, than they were when thye ruled the country previously.

And there is the issue of the position of the other ethnicities.

Under Taliban rule in the 1990s, the Hazaras - who are Shia - were treated atrociously; I cannot see Iran tolerating that - as the leading Shia state in the world, domestically, they cannot afford to be seen to tolerate that, quite apart from any theological ties they have to the Hazara, and this is the case, even if, they - for reasons of realpolitik, - wish to have an amicable relationship with the Taliban.

And then, there are the Tajiks and Uzbeks, two of the other ethnic groups.

The security forces were mainly comprised of Tajiks (and some Uzbeks; far fewer Pashtun served, from what I could see).

Apparently, several military planes - full of fleeing security forces - landed in both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan on Sunday; I would be willing to wager that the people those planes carried were soldiers (and police, possibly) who were Tajiks and Uzbeks.

Thus, these countries - now host to an unknown number of trained troops and security personnel from Afghanistan - will be keeping a close eye - not just on relations with Afghanistan, and on proceedings within Afghanistan - but also on how people of their own ethnicity are treated by the Taliban (who, if anything, traditionally were an extreme expression of Pashtun nationalism expressed in an ascetic and severe interpretation of Islam).

On Sunday, Tajikistan refused to allow the plane carrying fleeing President Ashraf Ghani - and his immediate entourage - to land in the country; while some twits on Twitter have sneered at what they described as a "lack of Muslim solidarity" I think it goes far deeper than that.

Ghani - who is Pashtun - seems to have had difficulty in dealing with dissenting opinions, and voices, and was famously incapable of forging harmonious relations with the Tajik members of his administration.

I don't doubt for one minute that he was haunted by the appalling death - murder - of former President Najibullah - who was cruelly murdered by the Taliban in 1996 - and, while such an end may have awaited him, the manner of his departure - he didn't formally resign, nor did he formally put any sort of transition or interim administration with any sort of authority in place - left an awful lot to be desired; it was an abdication of responsibility of the worst kind, and left those of his government who had remained loyal and had stayed at their posts terribly exposed, and betrayed.

The Taliban is making some noises that make it appear that they will not return to the oppressive ways of the late 90s/early 2000s. I don’t know if they will follow through, but presumably they want: trade, foreign aid, etc, etc... and if they return to the old ways, that will all go away.
Rather than re-write my own post penned earlier this morning - no 159 - I've taken the liberty of simply re-posting it, as it touches on some of these matters.

But yes, the possibility of the provision of foreign aid (Germany has stated that their aid to Afghanistan will cease) may concentrate Taliban minds, as may the fact that they cannot rule without consent, and the other ethnicities - above all, the Hazara - experienced appalling atrocities during the previous spell of Taliban rule, thus, will view their promises with a very jaundiced eye.

Certainly, I would expect the Tajiks (both within and outside Afghanistan) to be very cautious, - and, furthermore, I would expect that they will be at the centre of any future opposition to the Taliban that may emerge - while the Tajik government has seemed to suggest that it will not recognise the Taliban government.
 
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The Taliban is making some noises that make it appear that they will not return to the oppressive ways of the late 90s/early 2000s. I don’t know if they will follow through, but presumably they want: trade, foreign aid, etc, etc... and if they return to the old ways, that will all go away.

I'm sure China will be fine with the old ways...as long as it's not on their territory. They don't tolerate oppression competitors on their terf.
 
Rather than re-write my own post penned earlier this morning - no 159 - I've taken the liberty of simply re-posting it, as it touches on some of these matters.

But yes, the possibility of the provision of foreign aid (Germany has stated that their aid to Afghanistan will cease) may concentrate Taliban minds, as may the fact that they cannot rule without consent, and the other ethnicities - above all, the Hazara - experienced appalling atrocities during the previous spell of Taliban rule, thus, will view their promises with a very jaundiced eye.

Certainly, I would expect the Tajiks (both within and outside Afghanistan) to be very cautious, - and, furthermore, I would expect that they will be at the centre of any future opposition to the Taliban that may emerge - while the Tajik government has seemed to suggest that it will not recognise the Taliban government.

So basically it's impossible to rule under a single government in the country, even if it's their own people. This might be the biggest mental obstacle for those in the west. We just can't fathom an area defined by lines on a map not embracing a single cohesive government.

This is just a huge inconvenience for foreign entities who want to plunder the region. We demand they provide a single point of contact we can manipulate and in return we'll turn a blind eye to how they keep their population in check.
 
I'm sure China will be fine with the old ways...as long as it's not on their territory. They don't tolerate oppression competitors on their terf.

Re Afghanistan, my sense is that China will want three things:

1: Stability in the region; unlike some other countries, China does not welcome chaos and instability, and nor does it seek to export them. Yes, it does promote control, (sometimes, considerable control) and prefers predictability, and stability, all the better for trade, and for promoting its interests in the region.

2: Access to the natural resources of Afghanistan, but without armed conflict, i.e. not at the cost of Chinese lives. Power projection will take an economic form, - as it has across central Asia and some African countries - perhaps presented as something such as "post war reconstruction projects" - but, tellingly, without any of those tedious and trying (human rights) conditions that are usually attached to western aid projects.

3: An assurance (from the Taliban) that its own troubled region (and people) - the Uighurs - will be discouraged from expressing a marked (and potentially destabilising) preference for any sort of Islamic identity, or any sort of Islamic identity that may clash with the Chinese state's preferred expressions of Chinese identity - in other words, that the Taliban will not seek to export ideas of enthusiastic expressions of Islam to take root in territory that China rules.
 
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Even more than the hope that they may retain and secure some degree of foreign aid - which, remember, made up by far the greatest percentage of the Afghan state budget (between 67-78% of the total, depending on the year and source), the Taliban will be hoping to secure recognition for their regime.

Their original regime - the one that came to power in the 1990s - was recognised by only three states in the world; these were Pakistan (and even then, the Taliban didn't recognise the border/boundary with Pakistan, the Durand Line), KSA (Saudi-Arabia) and UAE.

Thus, I would argue that the emollient tone struck by the Taliban in today's press conference (and also agreeing to being interviewed by a female journalist on Tolo News - an excellent TV channel, by the way) are all part of a plan to persuade international interlocutors that Taliban 2.0 is a lot less inflexible than was its predecessor - in a bid to win diplomatic recognition, which would make any subsequent attempts to squash (internal) resistance considerably easier, by claiming that it is illegitimate and illegal.

Meanwhile, the (former) vice-president, Amrullah Saleh, (he was a very able head of the intelligence agency, the NDS), supposedly currently holed up in the Panjshir Valley (which was never captured by the Taliban in the original conflict), apparently in company with the son of the legendary Ahmad Shah Massoud, - also named Ahmad Massoud, think of the weight of history on those shoulders - has raised the flag of the old Northern Alliance, and named himself the legitimate acting - or caretaker - president, citing the constitution, and stating that this is being done in the absence of the departed (fled) president (Ashraf Ghani), and in the absence of any legal mechanism (a major failing on Ghani's part) to ensure the succession or a formal, legal, transition of power.

My guess is that the Taliban will attempt to sound as moderate and sane and flexible as possible in the hope of winning formal diplomatic recognition (from China, Russia, possibly some western states - e.g. the US) as quickly as possible so that they can then portray any possible, or potential, conflict from the north (the Tajik areas) as an illegal insurrection, and deal with it accordingly.

So, this is not just about securing aid - though that is imperative given the percentage of the state's budget that foreign aid comprises - but also about persuading the "international community" to formally recognise the Taliban as the legal, and legitimate rulers of Afghanistan.
 
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I'm wondering if part of the Taliban's attempted rebranding is because prior to 9/11 they were relatively unknown unless you were paying a lot of attention to the region. Because of 9/11 everybody knows who they are and they are no longer off the world radar.

AFAIK they also have very little interest in world domination or retribution. They'd rather not be included in the terrorist catchall bin. Might as well provide something other than just appearing terrorist-like 24/7.

Hey, where's ISIS lately?
 
So, this is not just about securing aid - though that is imperative given the percentage of the state's budget that foreign aid comprises - but also about persuading the "international community" to formally recognise the Taliban as the legal, and legitimate rulers of Afghanistan.

Any blend of ongoing and incoming government in Afghanistan needs foreign development aid funds to start flowing again. Everything got locked down as Afghan provinces began to fall and it was clear Taliban was reneging on the part of the agreement that said no more violence -- even though they waved off the violence that made it to western news outlets as "mistakes" made in the field etc.

But the USA has frozen Afghanistan's assets to extent they were held here. it's billiions of dollars. So there'll be a push on to at least act like they've been talking now at press conferences, e.g. reasonable, forgiving of past opposition inside the country and intending to honor women's rights "within an Islamic framework." That last bit of course is not particularly reassuring, so they've gone out of their way at least in Kabul to signal to women that burkas are not necessary, e.g., just be sure to wear a hijab to cover one's hair. For now... for how long?

But a clearly distressing concern is that it's not clear how much control the Taliban's top echelon has or will choose to exert over lower level street security regarding Afghan freedoms gained since 2001. A lot of those Taliban followers are young recruits eager to demonstrate loyalty they must show in order to merit whatever they were given in exchange. So far Taliban leaders continue to brush off threats or beatings by lower level enforcers as "mistakes". The UN has urged nonviolent "security" measures be applied during political negotiations for a new government, and said it will be looking to see that human rights gains in Afganistan are not lost. But they'll be looking from the outside.
 
I listened to this morning Biden Admin press briefing. It sounded intelligent to me. One point is, they determined that at 15k troops in Afghanistan were not enough last year, the country was all ready slipping when Trump reduced troops to 3k. It would have taken a much larger commitment to tamp things back down. We could have doubled down on a bad investment and keep bleeding or leave. The airport is secured and the US is evacuating Afghans involved supporting the US during the occupation and others.
 
I think it may be a bit more subtle than that, but, yes, agreed, they may be attempting some sort of balancing act, at least, initially.

And yes, people have experienced more freedoms (in the cities, the ethnicities who are not Pashtun, women to name but three groups whose lives were immeasurably improved over the past twenty years - and here, I will just throw in the fact that I, personally, have observed, on countless occasions, crocodile lines of girls, young girls and older girls, and boys, too, all attired in neat school uniforms, heading to or from school in Kabul), and will not take kindly to their removal.

The Taliban will find that keeping, and holding and maintaining their rule (especially in the cities, and other ethnic regions) - without some form of consent - which may require some degree of a balancing act - on the part of the ruled - is not the same as military (and political) victories. If they insist on ruling by force, inevitably, some will contest that.

Moreover, foreign aid - which has comprised between two thirds (67%) and 80% of the state budget will be cut entirely - Germany has announced today that all foreign aid to Afghanistan will cease (and Germany was a generous donor) - will be cut, or its retention may be conditional on some degree of compromise on the part of the Taliban, or an indication that they will be prepared to be more lenient on matters of human rights, civil rights, and women's rights, than they were when they ruled the country previously.

And there is the issue of the position of the other ethnicities.

Under Taliban rule in the 1990s, the Hazaras - who are Shia - were treated atrociously; I cannot see Iran tolerating that - as the leading Shia state in the world, domestically, they cannot afford to be seen to tolerate that, quite apart from any theological ties they have to the Hazara, and this is the case, even if, they - for reasons of realpolitik, - wish to have an amicable relationship with the Taliban.

And then, there are the Tajiks and Uzbeks, two of the other ethnic groups.

The security forces were mainly comprised of Tajiks (and some Uzbeks; far fewer Pashtun served, from what I could see).

Apparently, several military planes - full of fleeing security forces - landed in both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan on Sunday; I would be willing to wager that the people those planes carried were soldiers (and police, possibly) who were Tajiks and Uzbeks.

Thus, these countries - now host to an unknown number of trained troops and security personnel from Afghanistan - will be keeping a close eye - not just on relations with Afghanistan, and on proceedings within Afghanistan - but also on how people of their own ethnicity are treated by the Taliban (who, if anything, traditionally were an extreme expression of Pashtun nationalism expressed in an ascetic and severe interpretation of Islam).

On Sunday, Tajikistan refused to allow the plane carrying fleeing President Ashraf Ghani - and his immediate entourage - to land in the country; while some twits on Twitter have sneered at what they described as a "lack of Muslim solidarity" I think it goes far deeper than that.

Ghani - who is Pashtun - seems to have had difficulty in dealing with dissenting opinions, and voices, and was famously incapable of forging harmonious relations with the Tajik members of his administration.

I don't doubt for one minute that he was haunted by the appalling death - murder - of former President Najibullah - who was cruelly murdered by the Taliban in 1996 - and, while such an end may have awaited him, the manner of his departure - he didn't formally resign, nor did he formally put any sort of transition or interim administration with any sort of authority in place - left an awful lot to be desired; it was an abdication of responsibility of the worst kind, and left those of his government who had remained loyal and had stayed at their posts terribly exposed, and betrayed.

This strikes me as about right, the Taliban are going to find themselves in the role of every other central authority in Afghanistan, and will have to work hard to manage the political and economic questions.
 
While we're being skeptical of Taliban 2.0, imagine if you are living in the Middle East right now and the US military rolls up and says "We're here to help! We won't be here long."
 
While we're being skeptical of Taliban 2.0, imagine if you are living in the Middle East right now and the US military rolls up and says "We're here to help! We won't be here long."

That's approximately how China may feel about the Taliban "securing" the Wakhan Corridor (the narrow strip of Afghanistan between Tajikistan and Pakistan) which terminates on its eastern end at a 80 or 90-km border with China's formerly restive, still mostly Muslim Xinjiang province. As much as China likes the idea of exploiting Afghanistan's vast array of mineral resources --hence its recent cozying up to the Taliban-- it's unhappy that Taliban loyalists are now a stone's throw from a Chinese province housing a population whose heritage and political lean are more like those of its Central Asian neighbors than of most of the rest of China.

The one good thing about that Afghan corridor from China's point of view is that its terrain and often its weather are extremely inhospitable. It runs on an easterly upgrade from 9k feet in Afghanistan to 16k feet at its terminus in China. It was meant to be from inception a buffer zone between the Russian and British empires in Asia as of the late 19th century. Besides the terrain and weather, there are political impediments to easy border-crossing at the eastern end of the corridor. China closed off access decades ago and refused to reopen passage during the 20-year period of the US occupation of Afghanistan, even though Afghan government officials asked for access in order to create trade opportunities and supply lines meant to support anti-Taliban maneuvers. China's concerns about political meddling by the Taliban are real. In fact China and Russia are now conducting joint military drills in another area of northern China, somewhat east of Xinjiang, because.... uh,,,, they've done it before and so are doing it again. Or however else others might decide to view it.

 
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