Hamas has launched a major attack on Israel

[dada_dave]

 

[Citysnaps]

This isn’t just about whether Iran aided with weapons but also whether they helped organize and plan the attack with Hamas. There is disagreement over the extent of their involvement in its planning and operational control.

Again... MY comments were not with respect to that (though it is possible) - and a different discussion. My comments were with respect to how the Israelis were caught off guard with Hamas possibly using trusted/vetted couriers, and thus evading Israeli/western intelligence agencies.

There is a difference.

 

[dada_dave]

Again... MY comments were not with respect to that (though it is possible). My comments were with respect to how the Israelis were caught off guard.

There is a difference.

Right sorry I’m not making myself clear, the reason I’m posting this in response is because it’s bad enough if the plan was formulated and carried out entirely within Hamas and the Israelis completely missed it. But it’s even worse if the planning for the operation involved multiple groups including the Iranian government, with multiple communication chains, and nobody heard a thing. Not from SigInt not from HumInt. The larger the pool of people looped into a secret plan, the harder it is to be a secret plan. Not impossible, but harder.

 

[Citysnaps]

Right sorry I’m not making myself clear, the reason I’m posting this in response is because it’s bad enough if the plan was formulated and carried out entirely within Hamas and the Israelis completely missed it. But it’s even worse if the planning for the operation involved multiple groups including the Iranian government, with multiple communication chains, and nobody heard a thing. Not from SigInt not from HumInt. The larger the pool of people looped into a secret plan, the harder it is to be a secret plan. Not impossible, but harder.

Oh well. I tried clarifying.

 

[dada_dave]

Oh well. I tried clarifying.

I understand. You think they avoided sigint using couriers. Possible. Extremely hard to plan something of this scale though and even harder if it’s multiple groups having to coordinate together, including the Iranian government. That makes the deep Iranian involvement less likely though still possible. We were talking about that earlier, and I was tying the two conversations together because they are both how the operation was planned and kept secret.

Further Israel especially has … or had maybe … good HumInt in the region. They weren’t just reliant on signals. Couriers don’t help with that. Which suggests what human intelligence sources Israel has are useless, compromised, or dead.

Edit: this is of course if they did indeed miss it as badly as they seem to have.

 

[dada_dave]

@Citysnaps I’ll admit the first response I gave was because I read your post as trusted/vetted sources - ie journalists/intelligence experts/etc to weigh in. But after that I was trying to engage on how, if the Iranians were involved the couriers idea becomes harder and that indeed there was a lot of pushback that Iran could been too deeply involved without raising suspicion. Of course we still don’t know, they still could have been so, but that’s what I was trying to get at.

 

[Roller]

There are a couple of things that are not seriously in dispute:

1) Many innocent people on both sides have been killed or severely injured, and this will escalate as Israel retaliates.
2) The attack by Hamas was qualitatively and quantitatively different from the many that preceded it in brutality and scope.

I keep asking myself what Hamas's strategic goal is: Punish Israel for its policies toward Palestinians, as they claim? Induce the terrorized Israeli electorate to push Netanyahu out in favor of a government that will offer concessions in negotiation? Simply demonstrate their ability to harm Israel far more than they have previously? Give the Israeli government and military pause in attacking Gaza for fear of killing or injuring hostages? Force Israel into a multi-front war?

I don't believe any of these is viable except perhaps the last. Hamas may think that widening the war, with them attacking from the southwest, Hezbollah hitting from the north, and the PA coming from the east, could help achieve their stated objective, but Israel's firepower remains too dominant for that. I also don't think Hamas could have acted without Iran's knowledge, if not its direct or indirect assistance.

As for what will happen in the medium term, it's impossible to say. I doubt Netanyahu's administration will survive, but what will take its place? Unfortunately, Israel's government is so splintered it will be nearly impossible for any party to form one with sufficient plurality to negotiate with the Palestinians (about whom Hamas doesn't care) meaningfully.

 

[Alli]

there is no justification for targeting civilians.

Exactly, especially when the civilians may be from other countries. My daughter called this morning with the sad news that the cousin of a co-worker was at the festival, and is now missing. Horrific. Then I see my cousin on Facebook saying that the kibbutz where his mother was raised has been totally destroyed. These were not accidental casualties.

I suspect a US carrier group now moving to the eastern Mediterranean will be aiding in some manner

As long as they only aid in information. Until the religious right in Israel get off their “learned” asses and go fight with everyone else, I do not wish to see a single American engaged in this conflict.

 

[Citysnaps]

Exactly, especially when the civilians may be from other countries. My daughter called this morning with the sad news that the cousin of a co-worker was at the festival, and is now missing. Horrific. Then I see my cousin on Facebook saying that the kibbutz where his mother was raised has been totally destroyed. These were not accidental casualties.

As long as they only aid in information. Until the religious right in Israel get off their “learned” asses and go fight with everyone else, I do not wish to see a single American engaged in this conflict.

If in fact Iran supplied weapons to Hamas...I wouldn't be shocked if Israel will soon be taking out weapons and weapons production facilities in Iran. And possibly any facilities used for planning the attack.

Should it be necessary, I can see the US helping to defend Israel should the Iranians choose to escalate and directly attack Israel in response. Especially since United States citizens were killed in the Hamas attack.

 

[Roller]

As long as they only aid in information. Until the religious right in Israel get off their “learned” asses and go fight with everyone else, I do not wish to see a single American engaged in this conflict.

I agree the religious parties in Israel are problematic. They are anti-democratic and insist on being excused from military service.

I think it’s unlikely that American forces will get involved directly on the ground, though air support may be needed if Hezbollah, which is much more capable militarily than Hamas, initiates a major attack from Lebanon.

Accounts of the barbaric attacks on hundreds of music festival attendees and Israeli villagers are increasingly horrifying. Women raped, elderly people and children shot at close range, throats slashed, hostages taken. Hamas aren’t freedom fighters. They don’t care about the Palestinian people.

And Tuberville’s continued blockade of military appointments in the Senate is degrading our capabilities in the Middle East and elsewhere. He should be vilified by his Republican colleagues. On the House side, the antics by Gaetz and his nihilist colleagues have limited what that body can do. The electorate should be reminded of their disgraceful actions and the consequences when they run for office.

 

[KingOfPain]

It’s an atrocity and nothing less than Barbaric. It’s unfathomable these preparators, presumably self identify as Muslims and could chant praise to God while committing this beyond unholy amen heinous act. At the very least I’d hope their leadership holds them accountable as would an actual military… but that’s probably expecting a lot.

I've seen some footage of Hamas troops, and 50% of what they were saying was "God is great".
Independent of the type of religion you believe in, if all you have to say is "God is great", then you should get your head checked out!

But this is also on the Imams and other religious leaders, who often declare this as a "holy war".

As Eric mentioned, this also happend in the Russia-Ukraine war, where Russian priests "blessed" the weapons that were sent to Ukraine.

Karl Marx's saying that religion is opium for the populace has some merit here. Religion is used by more powerful people to let others do their bidding, which actually has nothing to do with religion at all.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

I keep asking myself what Hamas's strategic goal is: Punish Israel for its policies toward Palestinians, as they claim? Induce the terrorized Israeli electorate to push Netanyahu out in favor of a government that will offer concessions in negotiation? Simply demonstrate their ability to harm Israel far more than they have previously? Give the Israeli government and military pause in attacking Gaza for fear of killing or injuring hostages? Force Israel into a multi-front war?

The goal of terrorism is to receive retribution which they will then use as propaganda to radicalize more people into their group which increases the power and wealth of their psychopath leadership. Intentional or unintentional, in the region’s long history of chicken or the egg you could say the same thing about Netanyahu. The far-right sucks at security. Either you can chalk it up to ineptitude or they know every once and a while they need to let the enemy crack some eggs so they can keep making their omelet. This is the only end game of authoritarianism and fascism, non-stop fear-mongering while stoking violence while also inexplicably claiming they are the only one who can protect you from the violence (they stoked).

 

[Huntn]

General philosophical question- What is heinous? Hamas, Israel, humanity, when we continually abuse each other and trash the planet?

Hamas has thrown the region into crisis by the abrupt nature of this violence, multiple heinous acts.
Israel who apparently thinks that decades of oppressing abusing Palestinians is good for its security suddenly cries “They’re picking on us! “ and pretend like they don’t have a clue why. Reaping what you sew seems apropos.

 

[dada_dave]

General philosophical question- What is heinous? Hamas, Israel, humanity, when we continually abuse each other and trash the planet?

Hamas has thrown the region into crisis by the abrupt nature of this violence, multiple heinous acts.
Israel who apparently thinks that decades of oppressing abusing Palestinians is good for its security suddenly cries “They’re picking on us! “ and pretend like they don’t have a clue why. Reaping what you sew seems apropos.

Look Israel is responsible for a lot of deaths, including that of Palestinian children. I'm not going to deny or sugar coat that. And the latest retailiatory strikes have killed at least 140 kids. Cutting off food, water, and electricity to 2.1 million people plus sealing the border in so they can't leave despite telling them to do so is a war crime no matter what was done to Israel.

But no. When Hamas starts cutting the heads off of babies, taking more children, again including babies, hostage and threatening to execute them on camera, and none of that is an exaggeration, this is not reaping what you sow. That's just fucking ISIS. There are times when the lines between terrorism and freedom fighter can indeed get blurry and depend on your point of view. This? this is not one of those times.

Plenty of Israelis have been fighting for peace as have plenty of Palestinians. Both understand that how we got here involved a lot of bloodshed, repression, and the worst of humanity on display. I don't paint every Palestinian, problematic or not, with Hamas any more than I paint every Israeli, problematic or not, with Likud, and by combining them here I'm being unfair to Likud fascist assholes that they are but Hamas is that much worse.

 

[dada_dave]

It’s an atrocity and nothing less than Barbaric. It’s unfathomable these preparators, presumably self identify as Muslims and could chant praise to God while committing this beyond unholy amen heinous act. At the very least I’d hope their leadership holds them accountable as would an actual military… but that’s probably expecting a lot.

I cannot fathom what her poor family must be going through- I heard a report that her mother and sister identified her in the video going around. The story was originally reported the victim being a possible female IDF soldier. To be a foreigner caught in the crossfire is tragic.

With Israel brining up 100k reserve troops, I have a sense they may try to do a total invasion of Gaza and totally dismantle Hamas. That would be an extremely dangerous task for the IDF and especially Palestinian civilians given how dense Gaza is. But it seems like the only way to assuredly prevent Hamas from doing the same thing. And it’s consistent with how the US responded after 911- literally going to the ends of the earth to destroy the responsible terrorist Organizations.

Edit: Her name is Shani Louk, age 30 and was a tattoo artist. To clarify, some articles say she’s is a German-Israeli… though an irrelevant factor considering there is no justification for targeting civilians.

She may be alive! Her mother has said that she's been furnished with proof that Shani is alive, but in critical condition with a head wound in a Gaza hospital.

Shani Louk is still alive, mother reveals

The 22-year-old German national's mother said she had received news that her daughter is in a hospital in Gaza.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Roller]

General philosophical question- What is heinous? Hamas, Israel, humanity, when we continually abuse each other and trash the planet?

Hamas has thrown the region into crisis by the abrupt nature of this violence, multiple heinous acts.
Israel who apparently thinks that decades of oppressing abusing Palestinians is good for its security suddenly cries “They’re picking on us! “ and pretend like they don’t have a clue why. Reaping what you sew seems apropos.

I doubt if anyone in Israel, hardliners included, is naive enough to not know about the Palestinians' state of mind after 75 years of periodic warfare and continued strife. However, there have been missed opportunities for a negotiated settlement along the lines of a two-state solution, which many Israelis and Palestinians would agree to. Also, Netanyahu and his cronies don't necessarily represent the majority opinion in Israel, as was evidenced by large recent demonstrations against judicial reforms.

But neither Hamas nor Hezbollah should be considered as advocates or freedom fighters for the Palestinian cause. Palestinians I've heard speak hate them almost as much as the Israelis do. And, as @dada_dave said, the brutality exhibited by Hamas during this attack is a whole new level that hasn't been seen before.

It's difficult to know what Israel should do now. Major incursions into Gaza will probably result in the death of most of the hostages and loss of life for many innocent Palestinians. Precision operations to free hostages would also be very challenging. Once Israel has cleared all the Hamas people from their territory, I wish they would accede to a cease-fire, perhaps brokered by Egypt, and keep electricity, food, and other humanitarian supplies flowing.

 

[dada_dave]

I doubt if anyone in Israel, hardliners included, is naive enough to not know about the Palestinians' state of mind after 75 years of periodic warfare and continued strife. However, there have been missed opportunities for a negotiated settlement along the lines of a two-state solution, which many Israelis and Palestinians would agree to. Also, Netanyahu and his cronies don't necessarily represent the majority opinion in Israel, as was evidenced by large recent demonstrations against judicial reforms.

But neither Hamas nor Hezbollah should be considered as advocates or freedom fighters for the Palestinian cause. Palestinians I've heard speak hate them almost as much as the Israelis do. And, as @dada_dave said, the brutality exhibited by Hamas during this attack is a whole new level that hasn't been seen before.

It's difficult to know what Israel should do now. Major incursions into Gaza will probably result in the death of most of the hostages and loss of life for many innocent Palestinians. Precision operations to free hostages would also be very challenging. Once Israel has cleared all the Hamas people from their territory, I wish they would accede to a cease-fire, perhaps brokered by Egypt, and keep electricity, food, and other humanitarian supplies flowing.

A cease fire is not in the cards - a ground invasion of Gaza to root out Hamas is inevitable at this point and isn't even wrong in my opinion. But what they could do, should do is, with Egypt allow an evacuation corridor to get civilians out of Gaza and ensure the civilian population has access to humanitarian supplies. There will be still many civilian deaths regardless, but doing so would save countless lives. Right now, unfortunately that isn't happening. They're saying leave, but there is nowhere to go.

 

[Cmaier]

As for what will happen in the medium term, it's impossible to say. I doubt Netanyahu's administration will survive, but what will take its place? Unfortunately, Israel's government is so splintered it will be nearly impossible for any party to form one with sufficient plurality to negotiate with the Palestinians (about whom Hamas doesn't care) meaningfully.

Nobody in Israel is interested in negotiating with Palestinians, and there seems to be an awful lot of unity among all the political parties at the moment.

 

[dada_dave]

there seems to be an awful lot of unity among all the political parties at the moment.

More than there had been, but there is a lot of internal strife still. I'm not sure we've seen the totality of the political fallout here in the short term never mind long term. These things are hard to predict.

Ben-Gvir blames Benny Gantz, Gadi Eisenkot for Hamas war

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir sparked backlash from Likud ministers, who blame him for impeding the formation of an emergency unity government.

www.jpost.com

 

[dada_dave]

More than there had been, but there is a lot of internal strife still. I'm not sure we've seen the totality of the political fallout here in the short term never mind long term. These things are hard to predict.

Ben-Gvir blames Benny Gantz, Gadi Eisenkot for Hamas war

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir sparked backlash from Likud ministers, who blame him for impeding the formation of an emergency unity government.

www.jpost.com

Depending on what gets confirmed as I said, the political fallout may not wait until the end of the conflict. I think this is the 3rd or so paper claiming to have sources that Egypt tried to warn Israel. We don't know of course that those are independent sources - so do not take this as absolute confirmation.