Retailers lied about the extent of organized shoplifting

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Column: How the retail lobby sold a $45-billion whopper about organized shoplifting

Politicians and the press bought into the panic over organized shoplifting, but the source of the alarming statistic now admits that it was a lie.

www.latimes.com

But hey, it sounded good on those shareholder meetings.

 

[Herdfan]

Those videos came from somewhere.

 

[Yoused]

Those videos came from somewhere.

Which videos? How many different ones are there?

 

[Nycturne]

 

[Citysnaps]

Which videos? How many different ones are there?

I'm guessing he's referring to retail store security camera (and perhaps customer camera phone) "footage" of organized smash-n-grab events broadcast on local television news.

I can't speak for other cities, but in San Francisco that's been occurring quite regularly for at least the last 1-2 years, and is a huge problem.

 

[rdrr]

Those videos came from somewhere.

Granted the theft happened, but not at the levels the alarmist push or the Retail Lobbyist and GOP stated. No they lied per usual to push the narrative. If you read the article Dick's Sporting goods even had clearer context to the lie.

The company’s third-quarter earnings report told a more detailed story. There, Dick’s reported that margins had decreased by 1.3 percentage points — well more than double the impact of shrink — due to “higher markdowns ... on excess product.” In other words, margins narrowed more because of faulty buying decisions made internally than from thefts committed by workers or marauders.

 

[Nycturne]

I can't speak for other cities, but in San Francisco that's been occurring quite regularly for at least the last 1-2 years, and is a huge problem.

In the face of an organization that represents the interests of retailers admitting to lying about the scope of the problem, I’m curious if there’s external data to back this up.

According to this article, crime stats from the police showed a downward trend in 2021 compared to 2020: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...eo-goes-viral-officials-argue-thefts-n1273848

Police data shows overall thefts are down 9 percent in the first six months of the year compared to the same period in 2020, when the city was on lockdown and many businesses closed during the onset of the pandemic.

And the SF Chronicle more recently goes into a bit on how the reporting can be a bit messy due to how retail chains report, but that both SF and Seattle are doing better than the national average in terms of trends at the moment: https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/shoplifting-retail-theft-store-18523023.php

 

[Citysnaps]

Yes, the Mayor and Police Chief in SF tend to downplay the seriousness - likely to help deter people from not shopping in SF. And if there's a small dip, that's probably due to heightened awareness and police enforcement - even though SFPD is still down around 500 sworn officers and not able to respond to many incidents timely - or not at all if it's a car smash-n-grab, or a simple street assault/robbery. Also many stores are now taking measures to deter theft/robberies - ie locking merchandise that was previously accessible to customers now behind locked plexiglass panels (requiring an employee to retrieve merchandise), for example.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

locking merchandise that was previously accessible to customers now behind locked plexiglass panels (requiring an employee to retrieve merchandise), for example.

Read an article that surveyed both retail workers and retail thieves and both said the top thing that could help deter retail theft is more employees. From the thief’s perspective that’s more potential for getting caught.

I think locking more things up is going to cause more loss of sales, especially if retailers refuse to hire more people and then you have to wait for an available employee if you can even find one. Whatever they are locking up you can probably get on Amazon and probably cheaper and delivered on the same or next day. If you’re going to make the store experience a nightmare then people will just go with that option.

 

[AG_PhamD]

Some people for some reason to continue trying to downplay the crime issue. I have never heard anyone claim retailers lost $45B lost to smash and grab thefts… I don’t think anyone would take that “statistic” seriously.

Clearly crime is an issue in some areas, more so now than before the pandemic. Clearly smash and grabs have been a trend over the past few years. Reporters discrediting one statement or playing around with crime stats by adjusting the reference frame, types of crime, location, etc for something like this crime topic is well beyond biased persuasion and is really just a form of gas lighting.

 

[Yoused]

I have never heard anyone claim retailers lost $45B lost to smash and grab thefts…

"Smash and grab" was not the claim. Somehow, losses got estimated to total $96B across all B&M, which seems to be double of real figures. From that, the industry group then laid half the losses to shoplifting (which is the opposite of smash and grab), then claimed that a significant fraction of that shoplifting was by organized groups of thieves that would go in and take stuff and be too numerous to defend against.

The reality seems to be that industry-wide losses may have totaled around $45B. But only a fraction of that is from theft. If, for instance, the buyer orders 500 miglans and manages to sell 100 of them in a couple weeks, but then they stall, so they get marked down 10% and 100 more fly off the shelves before sales stall, so the miglans eventually sell down to the last 50 or so at increasing markdowns. Accounting says "We should have sold 500 miglans at full profit, but the markdowns mean that our overall profit on the miglans we sold was about 40% of what was expected, so that diminished return is a 'loss'. Not to mention, we still have fifty miglans left on the shelf."

In other words, a non-trivial fraction of "loss" is "[/i]we guessed wrong and made less than we wanted to[/i]." But it is much easier and more satisfying to blame it on theft, because business errors do not play as well in the press.

 

[Herdfan]

locking merchandise that was previously accessible to customers now behind locked plexiglass panels (requiring an employee to retrieve merchandise), for example.

Read an article that surveyed both retail workers and retail thieves and both said the top thing that could help deter retail theft is more employees. From the thief’s perspective that’s more potential for getting caught.

But employees aren't allowed to do anything. They can't confront or stop anyone walking out with merch. At least not at large retailers because the companies are afraid an employee will get hurt or killed and then they get sued.

Before I left WV, our local HD locked up all the wire. I asked why and was told because people will grab a roll and just walk out the door. So those additional employees need to be off-duty police who can stop and arrest them or at least it would be a huge deterrent.

It can be done. A chain of convenience stores called QT has armed security in EVERY store. Even in the best neighborhoods. Off-duty officers will almost always take the extra hours.

 

[Citysnaps]

hey can't confront or stop anyone walking out with merch. At least not at large retailers because the companies are afraid an employee will get hurt or killed and then they get sued.

Or a misjudged customer doing absolutely nothing wrong getting hurt/traumatized/embarrassed when exiting a store and stopped.

 

[Herdfan]

Or a misjudged customer doing absolutely nothing wrong getting hurt/traumatized/embarrassed when exiting a store and stopped.

Yeah I'm waiting for the WalMart greeter to stop me because I refused a receipt check.

 

[GermanSuplex]

Is there any company that prioritizes steady profits and margins instead of constant growth? Is growing and expanding a business wherever and whenever possible to amass as much money as possible the only goal?

The whole system has devolved into rich people sharing around and trading their wealth with each other, constantly pilfering from the middle class along the way and bringing more of the shared American wealth into fewer and fewer hands.

Rest assured any company that takes a “do not stop shoplifters” stance has done so out of a financial decision rather than having their hands tied or wanting to be nice to criminals.

I’m sure if they can spend hundreds of millions of dollars a year lobbying Congress and politicians and donating to their campaigns to keep wages low and benefits non-existent, they could put that money to use finding ways of slowing product loss.

 

[Herdfan]

Is there any company that prioritizes steady profits and margins instead of constant growth? Is growing and expanding a business wherever and whenever possible to amass as much money as possible the only goal?

Not if they are publicly traded. To increase the stock price, it has to go up and the only way for it to go up, is growth. If the stock prices doesn't go up, then they have a hard time selling more stock to fund expansion.

There are a few exceptions like dividend heavy companies, but even they want the dividend to go up even if incrementally.

But keep in mind, if you have a 401(k) or any investments, you want this behavior.

Rest assured any company that takes a “do not stop shoplifters” stance has done so out of a financial decision rather than having their hands tied or wanting to be nice to criminals.

Absolutely. They are afraid of being sued when an employee does something to try to stop a shoplifter which could get the employee hurt/killed. Or even worse, something goes wrong and a customer gets hurt/killed.

So we as the customers are the ones who get the shaft as now everything of value is locked up and you need an employee to get it for you. I now order razor blades online because I got so tired of needing an employee to get them for me.

 

[GermanSuplex]

Absolutely. They are afraid of being sued when an employee does something to try to stop a shoplifter which could get the employee hurt/killed. Or even worse, something goes wrong and a customer gets hurt/killed.

So we as the customers are the ones who get the shaft as now everything of value is locked up and you need an employee to get it for you. I now order razor blades online because I got so tired of needing an employee to get them for me.

This will not improve as the executives and politicians continue making life harder for the workers and the poor. Increasing population, increased prices, decreased circulation of currency as wealth is amassed into fewer and fewer hands…

The idea of thinking it’s always the petty criminal, always the worker, always something other than the people running the show causing the problems is the real issue.

A lot of this retail theft you hear about is also coming from places with predatory business practices, like Dollar General/Family Dollar, which set up stores in low-income neighborhoods and pay one person minimum wage to staff and entire store as stocker, cashier and manager on duty. You make it that easy for people to steal and they absolutely will.

I have no sympathy for thieves, but I’m tired of the people creating all the problems pretending to be victims.

And as the thread suggests, some of these companies flat out lie about the theft problem anyways, gives them an excuse to jack up prices even more - to combat fictional losses.