Russia-Ukraine

[Scepticalscribe]

Vlad's houseboy Kevin pipes up

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1582433015908929537/

And the egregious Elon Musk - a narcissist, a nasty piece of work, someone nursing deranged delusions about their own importance, which has made him an extraordinarily compliant and complicit and unquestioning messenger for Mr Putin - strikes me as someone who falls into a similar category.

 

[lizkat]

And the egregious Elon Musk - a narcissist, a nasty piece of work, someone nursing deranged delusions about their own importance, which has made him an extraordinarily compliant and complicit and unquestioning messenger for Mr Putin - strikes me as someone who falls into a similar category.

He is such a piece of work. He has done a 180º now on having said he'd try to get Pentagon to pay him for Starlink setups for Ukraine, now says will resume providing them 'for free' although whines about the cost. Well he does have a big cash bite coming up to secure his alleged purchase of Twitter else go to court in November. Poor Elon. But let's not look a gift horse in the mouth.

Elon Musk Begrudgingly Says He'll Keep Helping Ukraine Through Starlink

As the war in Ukraine continues, Elon Musk says he'll bite the bullet to keep internet services afloat in Eastern Europe -- even though it's clear, he isn't happy about it.

www.tmz.com

Maybe a tweeted poll awhile back by Zelenskyy (asking if people like the Musk who supports Ukraine better? or the Musk who supports Russia better?) had affected ol' Elon's take on the matter.

78.8% of the poll responders went for the "Musk who supports Ukraine..."​

Zelenskyy definitely has Elon's number. Musk has a hole in his heart needs constant refills. Of course he hasn't really changed his views on the Russia-Ukraine matter, as one can tell from some of his other tweets. But in the meanwhile Ukraine will have more Starlink setups, if they can manage to keep moving the units around to avoid being pinpointed by Russian attackers.

 

[AG_PhamD]

As a secular Jew I am frustrated to see Israel is continuong to refuse military aid to Ukraine, though things might be changing. Since the outbreak of the war Israel has not really involved itself other than as a line of communication between the two nations. This is because they were hoping to remain in a favorable light with Russia given their influence over Iran.

Now that Russia is buying and actively using Iranian drones, there is mounting pressure for Israel to start supplying Ukraine with weapons.

Israel very much prioritizes it’s existence above everything else for obvious reasons, so I completely understand the predicament and the sensitivity of the situation. But I wouldn’t expect Russia to be a good faith actor to Israel over Iran quite frankly at this point.

Iron Dome would do tremendous good in Ukraine. I’ve seen it in action and it’s truly an incredible feat of engineering. I imagine the US would have to agree to exporting it to Ukraine given we co-developed it. It’s disappointing though that even a 100% defensive tool like Iron Dome are currently a no go.

If Israel isn’t going to provide weapons- offensive or defensive, it would be nice if Mossad took a trip into Iran to observe some mysterious explosions at drone and missile factories. This plausible deniability clandestine warfare is what Israel does best.

I hope the US will be supplying Phalanx / C-RAM system to help easily take down rockets/artillery/missiles/drones. Especially these cheap Iranian drones. Truly an incredible system.


It apparently typically costs $30,000-60,000 per engagement, which is really a bargain if you consider a Stinger is like $100k, Iron Dome $150k per interception, S-300 missile est. $300k, Patriot $3m, etc. It’s a very short range system but could protect high value assets- like power plants.

I do very much worry about the fact Russia has destroyed or inhibited about 1/3 of Ukrainian’s power generation capabilities in just the past week. That’s a going to be serious problem period, but especially going into the winter. Hopefully the damage is manageable.

 

[Citysnaps]

If Israel isn’t going to provide weapons- offensive or defensive, it would be nice if Mossad took a trip into Iran to observe some mysterious explosions at drone and missile factories. This plausible deniability clandestine warfare is what Israel does best.

That would be a huge win for everyone - except Iran and Russia Might be a little tricky with some of their underground factories. No doubt in my mind Mossad would come up with a solution. That reminds me, it's been many years since watching Munich, an outstanding Spielberg movie based on true events. Think I'll watch it again tonight.

C-RAM would be a perfect and relatively economical easy to use/maintain defensive weapon for Ukraine. Hope we send them at least a few dozen units.

 

[Huntn]

Vlad's houseboy Kevin pipes up

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1582433015908929537/

My god the GOP is the Walking Dead, why can’t we put it in it’s political grave? Oh yeah, I momentarily forgot about STUPID.

 

[Yoused]

Oh yeah, I momentarily forgot about STUPID.

Stupidity is a valuable resource. Without an abundance of it, our economic system would collapse – which would probably be a good thing, in the long run, but the near-term issues related to a sustainable transition would be problematic.

 

[lizkat]

Stupidity is a valuable resource. Without an abundance of it, our economic system would collapse – which would probably be a good thing, in the long run, but the near-term issues related to a sustainable transition would be problematic.

Yeah, like trying to manage a "soft landing" in an economy based on consumerism.

 

[Yoused]

Yeah, like trying to manage a "soft landing" in an economy based on consumerism.

I like to imagine a gradual transition to a standards-based cottage industry ethos, but it would be a long road in the struggle to dismantle big industry/finance.

 

[lizkat]

I like to imagine a gradual transition to a standards-based cottage industry ethos, but it would be a long road in the struggle to dismantle big industry/finance.

Meanwhile speaking of big industry, SCOTUS will hear a case in December from a company wishing to establish precedent that a company can hold union employees responsible for anything that goes wrong with the company's operations during a strike.

Why going on strike could get much harder for American workers

Supreme Court will hear a case that could let employers sue workers for economic damage during strikes.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Yoused]

on-topic,

of course:

Russian officers take bribes from soldiers wanting to avoid front-line duty, StratCom Ukraine says

Business is good in Ukraine – if you’re a corrupt Russian army officer.

news.yahoo.com

 

[lizkat]

I do very much worry about the fact Russia has destroyed or inhibited about 1/3 of Ukrainian’s power generation capabilities in just the past week. That’s a going to be serious problem period, but especially going into the winter. Hopefully the damage is manageable.

Norway grows more concerned about Russian sabotage of pipelines. Finland thinking to build a border fence, having already closed border to further immigration from Russia.

 

[lizkat]

A glimpse of an attempt by a war correspondent for Russian media to prepare citizens back home to hear of ill effects in Kherson of a current 4-1 ratio of Ukrainian to Russian troops, with the latter having difficulty getting resupplied in the coming months thanks to having to ferry stuff across the damaged Dnieper crossing by boat and on pontoons

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1582794925304729601/​

​

​

Russian troops caught between retreat over Dnieper or risk being cut off

The British Ministry of Defense said Russia has committed its airborne forces to defending Kherson.

www.newsweek.com

 

[AG_PhamD]

Norway grows more concerned about Russian sabotage of pipelines. Finland thinking to build a border fence, having already closed border to further immigration from Russia.

I was talking to my dad earlier today who has been in the finance side of the energy industry for decades. He was saying there are essentially mobile power plants that could easily be brought in to restore power (provided the transformer and transmission equipt isn’t damaged which is a big problem). They apparently make semi truck trailers with turbine generators that produce typically 25-50MW which is a pretty significant amount of power. They also make less mobile systems that can be quickly assembled to produce up to 100MW.

Steam generation also appears to be negatively impacted in Ukraine, presumably for mostly heating and perhaps some industrial applications. They apparently do make mobile steam boilers as well, however these are obviously much smaller than what a steam plant would put out.

So potentially things may not be as terrible as they seem.

 

[Yoused]

A glimpse of an attempt by a war correspondent for Russian media to prepare citizens back home to hear of ill effects in Kherson of a current 4-1 ratio of Ukrainian to Russian troops

Curious thing about that video: "Komsomolskaya Pravda" was founded in 1925, as a Soviet newspaper. The "Kom" part of the name is short for kommunist. Apparently it was a hard thing to do away with. Or useful to the oligarchy. A nice way to spread plopaganda.

 

[lizkat]

Curious thing about that video: "Komsomolskaya Pravda" was founded in 1925, as a Soviet newspaper. The "Kom" part of the name is short for kommunist. Apparently it was a hard thing to do away with. Or useful to the oligarchy. A nice way to spread plopaganda.

Yes, most of the clips I've seen from there are more about justifying whatever the Russian military has most recently been doing in or to Ukraine, specifically whatever has turned up condemnatory press in the West. The host or correspondent usually is suggesting that Putin has no other choice, because of ill considered behavior by Ukraine or its supporters in the west. A preachy tone like explaining need to discipline a naughty child. Things are a little different at the moment, when they're trying not to get completely overrun in areas they had "annexed." Explaining that ends up throwing in some actual facts, even if adding that "of course" it's a temporary situation, just going to be bad for a few months. One wonders how much Russians buy any of it any more since it has become obvious things are not going well.

 

[Yoused]

I heard a scurrilous rumor that DC and Marvel have teamed up their legal teams to prepare a copyright infringement lawsuit against the Kremlin. They both put a lot of effort into development of supervillains and simply cannot tolerate this blatant theft of their product.

 

[lizkat]

I heard a scurrilous rumor that DC and Marvel have teamed up their legal teams to prepare a copyright infringement lawsuit against the Kremlin. They both put a lot of effort into development of supervillains and simply cannot tolerate this blatant theft of their product.

Hah they should expand the suit and add a new respondent: the Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Curious thing about that video: "Komsomolskaya Pravda" was founded in 1925, as a Soviet newspaper. The "Kom" part of the name is short for kommunist. Apparently it was a hard thing to do away with. Or useful to the oligarchy. A nice way to spread plopaganda.

Worth noting is the fact that the key word here is "Komsomol" - (not "Communist") - that is, the youth organization of the (CPSU) Communist Party Soviet Union (which was a sort of a cross between Boy Scouts, Hitler Youth, First Step on Serious Career Ladder, Means of Obtaining a University Place, seriously impressive holiday club for teenagers (away from parents, opportunities to Meet People Of Other Genders And Discover Assorted Discouraged Delights - in scenic holiday settings) - not "communist" (which is a noun that still appears to have the power to send shivers up US spines, notwithstanding the fact that the Soviet Union collapsed just over thirty years ago).

Anyway, Komsomolskaya Pravda was the paper of the Komsomol, the youth wing of the CPSU.

 

[Macky-Mac]

Today's briefing from the The Institute for the Study of War says;

The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated on October 21 that Russian forces are “quite actively” transferring ammunition, military equipment, and some unspecified units from the Dnipro River’s west bank to the east bank via ferries.[1]....

That's good news but further on it says

Russian forces will likely attempt to blow up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) to cover their withdrawal and to prevent Ukrainian forces from pursuing Russian forces deeper into Kherson Oblast. Russian forces will almost certainly blame Ukraine for the dam attack, as ISW has previously assessed.[11] Ukraine has no material interest in blowing the dam, which could flood 80 Ukrainian cities and displace hundreds of thousands of people while damaging Ukraine’s already-tenuous electricity supply. Russia, however, has every reason to attempt to provide cover to its retreating forces and to widen the Dnipro River, which Ukrainian forces would need to cross to continue their counteroffensive.

which will certainly be a mess for Ukraine should it happen.

October 21 briefing

 

[Yoused]

which will certainly be a mess for Ukraine should it happen

There would be some significant downstream flooding. However, there is a big issue preventing the Russians from blowing Kakhovka dam: right behind it is the aqueduct that waters Crimea. If the dam goes, Crimean agriculture, in the near term, is basically toast. On the other hand, when the Ukranian Army takes control of the dam, they will inevitably also gain control of the gate for the Crimean aqueduct.

In other words, the Russians have no good choice here. They can dry up Crimea themselves, or they can let the Ukrainians do it for them, but it looks like, either way, Crimea is kind of screwed. Unless the Russians decide to return it to Ukraine.

The Russian spokespeople were saying they were concerned about the danger of the Ukrainians blowing up the dam, and/or using chemical weapons. Neither of which are things one would likely do in the process of liberating one's own territory. It seems more likely that the Russians are preparing to use those tactics, so they are accusing the Ukrainians of threatening to do those things for cover. That way, when the Russians do it, they will say "see – we told you they were going to do that".