Russia-Ukraine

[lizkat]

Clearly nuclear weapons are something to fear. His point was we vastly overestimated the the organization and operational abilities of the Soviet Union, at least towards the end of its existence. That’s not to say even the most inept military can’t cause great devastation with nukes. The last 8 months or so have clearly indicated this still appears to be the case.

Heck, and not to derail the thread (so I regard this as a momentary tangent)... it's not just inept military that can cause nuclear devastation. It's anyone in the nukes club needing to deal with hazardous waste from nuclear operations be they experimental, post-energy-production or accidental...

I mean at Hanford cleanup site after all this time the US DoE and WA state designees are still "preparing to..." secure and dispose of waste that in some cases already has leaked into the environment... and the cost estimates keep rising, even as both Rs and Ds have other ideas about where to put appropriations. Meanwhile some containers are ticking time bombs since they are just steel drums, and single-hulled so to speak.​

​

Meanwhile environmental issues about the proposed vitrification method have arisen, and a" cost-saving" method of grouting is being suggested as an alternative, but no one knows for sure if that's not just kicking the cans... well, the leaking drums... down the road apiece at a lesser short term cost. And gee, who would think anyone in the USA would choose that path, eh?​

End of thread derail.. carry on.

I'll carry on: here's hoping no one is stupid enough to introduce a "dirty bomb" into the situation of Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Someone needs to persuade Putin he has shown enough of a forceful hand via his "special military operation." And that "winning" might best be viewed now as ending up with an economy that can be revived in time to stave off domestic issues exacerbated by his call for conscription.

My lingering wonderment is whether the FSB is all still on board with their boss. It must be a very fraught time amongst the movers and shakers around Putin. Not the innermost circle who are surely sycophants, but the ones a bit further out, the implementers... and the ones thinking about how to shift gears out of this conflict while saving their own skins.

 

[AG_PhamD]

Heck, and not to derail the thread (so I regard this as a momentary tangent)... it's not just inept military that can cause nuclear devastation. It's anyone in the nukes club needing to deal with hazardous waste from nuclear operations be they experimental, post-energy-production or accidental...

I mean at Hanford cleanup site after all this time the US DoE and WA state designees are still "preparing to..." secure and dispose of waste that in some cases already has leaked into the environment... and the cost estimates keep rising, even as both Rs and Ds have other ideas about where to put appropriations. Meanwhile some containers are ticking time bombs since they are just steel drums, and single-hulled so to speak.​

​

Meanwhile environmental issues about the proposed vitrification method have arisen, and a" cost-saving" method of grouting is being suggested as an alternative, but no one knows for sure if that's not just kicking the cans... well, the leaking drums... down the road apiece at a lesser short term cost. And gee, who would think anyone in the USA would choose that path, eh?​

End of thread derail.. carry on.

I'll carry on: here's hoping no one is stupid enough to introduce a "dirty bomb" into the situation of Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Someone needs to persuade Putin he has shown enough of a forceful hand via his "special military operation." And that "winning" might best be viewed now as ending up with an economy that can be revived in time to stave off domestic issues exacerbated by his call for conscription.

My lingering wonderment is whether the FSB is all still on board with their boss. It must be a very fraught time amongst the movers and shakers around Putin. Not the innermost circle who are surely sycophants, but the ones a bit further out, the implementers... and the ones thinking about how to shift gears out of this conflict while saving their own skins.

Absolutely. Nuclear waste post the Soviet Union was/is a huge problem. We’ve donated substantial resources to help Russia deal with such problems. Especially with their nuclear submarines. That’s not to say we don’t have our own problem with nuclear waste, primarily due to NIMBY. Not to mention back in the 50’s and 60’s waste, especially in research facilities, was literally thrown in barrels and at best were sunk in the ocean, at worst tossed in the woods behind the facility only to leak into the ground.

My uncle used to work at an compound of an engineering company that was involved with testing the feasibility of nuclear bombers (1960’s?). They literally dumped radioactive waste in the woods. It wasn’t cleaned up until the early 2000’s I believe.

Then there’s the issue of “Broken Arrows”a mishaps with nuclear weapons. The US has come around to reporting their mishaps, all of which are quite concerning. Russia has not done this, but we do know sitting off the coast of Bermuda at the bottom of the ocean is a Russian nuclear powered, nuclear armed ballistic sub (k-129). It has 2 nuclear reactors and 16 nuclear ballistic missiles each with multiple warheads. This submarine alone allegedly has more destructive power than all of America’s (known) “broken arrows”. And sadly such mistakes aren’t a Cold War issue either, it wasn’t that long ago (2007? 2008?) a B-52 flew halfway across America completely unaware it had 6 operational nuclear tipped cruise missiles strapped to its wings.

 

[AG_PhamD]

@lizkat I think either side would be insane to use a dirty bomb. Frankly, creating a nuclear dirty bomb is entirely within Ukraines capabilities given their nuclear power industry. Given Russias threats about nuclear launches, I wouldn’t be surprised if Ukraine came up with a contingency- or pretended to , in order to say “we can play this game too”. Even then, I can’t imagine if Russia detonated a nuke the West would not become directly involved.

That said, dirty bombs are of questionable effect. In reality they would probably cause more fear and panic and denial of entry to an area than illness and death, unless maybe they can be airburst over a populated area. Depending on where it is detonated could be easier to very difficult to clean up.

It makes absolutely zero sense though that Ukraine would detonate a dirty bomb on their own soil, especially when they are clearly progressing at regaining their territory. It would make a lot more sense for Russia to use them to deny the Ukrainians into an area Russian has control over.

 

[Macky-Mac]

....Someone needs to persuade Putin he has shown enough of a forceful hand via his "special military operation." And that "winning" might best be viewed now as ending up with an economy that can be revived in time to stave off domestic issues exacerbated by his call for conscription.

My lingering wonderment is whether the FSB is all still on board with their boss. It must be a very fraught time amongst the movers and shakers around Putin. Not the innermost circle who are surely sycophants, but the ones a bit further out, the implementers... and the ones thinking about how to shift gears out of this conflict while saving their own skins.

unfortunately it seems that there's a strong current of "Putin hasn't done enough!" among the Russian militocracy elite (the term for them that I've seen more and more is "siloviki"; former KGB, military, national police, etc and people like the head of the Wagner Group). So my suspicion is we're unlikely to see any group that's friendly towards peace pushing Putin out of the picture in the near term

 

[lizkat]

unfortunately it seems that there's a strong current of "Putin hasn't done enough!" among the Russian militocracy elite (the term for them that I've seen more and more is "siloviki"; former KGB, military, national police, etc and people like the head of the Wagner Group). So my suspicion is we're unlikely to see any group that's friendly towards peace pushing Putin out of the picture in the near term

We don't know for sure what was the initial advice to Putin from his military advisers. What they really think now they'd best keep to themselves, since in Russia the idea of military really talking back to head of state had already acquired a bad look and feel to it, before Putin's presidency. It was said back then that "No one will ever trust the army again..." and probably that is true in the Kremlin to this day.

So the oligarchs will offer a solution... support the production of new and polished advice from military who by now wish Putin never even "went there" with that godforsaken decision to invade Ukraine in order to cement his self-imaged heroic legacy.

The super-wealthy Russians have enough money to let all the prospective takers from the military and ex KGB line up at the trough like it's hog feeding time down on the farm. The price is just summoning up enough nerve to pitch Putin an off-ramp out of Ukraine before things get too difficult domestically. Sure there could be just a tiny hint that taking that off ramp might be the best thing for not only Russia's future, but hey, possibly for the future of Putin himself.

The advice is "you won already, bring it on home and have a parade instead of some kind of thing that looks really bad on TV, eh?" Western TV. Because whatever it is, would land there.

Putin has in the past prided himself on being strict about limiting dissent, but by "rule of law" --albeit it rubber-stamped law-- and not by instilling fear like in the bad old days. But now the levels of mutual distrust are rising again. Oligarchs will like to nip that in the bud. So much easier if all they have to do, as Putin has permitted them to do before, is to stay out of politics, and then not worry about who's watching what they do with their business arrangements...

The ones who say "Russia should do more!" the loudest right now may well among the first to lap up some of whatever's probably being put on offer right now. It's not like they can be seen to be wavering. That way lies their own accidental fall out some window at Vlad's pleasure.

But it's also not like Russia can pull a win out of the hat here. They overextended themselves, lost the coin flip on how well "conscription" would play in the hinterlands, are relying on assistance from a frenemy held close (Iran), which state Russia does not really want to help arrive at a state of possessing nuclear weapons. Turkey is a sometime friend, sometime frenemy. Even though its accession to the EU now seems permanently stalled, Turkey does not wish to become a pariah to European nations, so has been trying to dance the dance on the matter of Ukrainian sovereignty.

So the military and the Russian hardliners look around and find themselves regarding what, outsourced manufacture of Iran-designed drones? Some imported North Korean weapons?

And meanwhile Joe Biden is renewing neglected contacts in South America, including making friends with Venezuela with an eye to slowing down any renewed interest on the part of the also overextended Chinese to improve their LatAm influence.

Eeek, what's Russia to do? Dial 911 and see if Cuba has any gold under the mattress? Seriously? The new head of the once renowned Cuban Ballet lacks even a theatre in which to showcase her dancers... all the stages have worm-eaten floorboards in the decades of neglect under Fidel.

Oh I know: how about pull in horns, declare victory, get home and start trying to get out from under sanctions while selling some oil to whoever will take it and still has an undamaged port or shared pipeline. That way Putin stays in power, food lands on tables, the oligarchs resume their business activities with Putin getting his cut and their explicit support...

 

[Yoused]

now Russia is fighting Satanists!

Pavlov? Why does that name sound familiar?

 

[Deleted member 215]

Oh for crying out loud

Watch the American right eat this shit up...

 

[Scepticalscribe]

We don't know for sure what was the initial advice to Putin from his military advisers. What they really think now they'd best keep to themselves, since in Russia the idea of military really talking back to head of state had already acquired a bad look and feel to it, before Putin's presidency. It was said back then that "No one will ever trust the army again..." and probably that is true in the Kremlin to this day.

So the oligarchs will offer a solution... support the production of new and polished advice from military who by now wish Putin never even "went there" with that godforsaken decision to invade Ukraine in order to cement his self-imaged heroic legacy.

The super-wealthy Russians have enough money to let all the prospective takers from the military and ex KGB line up at the trough like it's hog feeding time down on the farm. The price is just summoning up enough nerve to pitch Putin an off-ramp out of Ukraine before things get too difficult domestically. Sure there could be just a tiny hint that taking that off ramp might be the best thing for not only Russia's future, but hey, possibly for the future of Putin himself.

The advice is "you won already, bring it on home and have a parade instead of some kind of thing that looks really bad on TV, eh?" Western TV. Because whatever it is, would land there.

Putin has in the past prided himself on being strict about limiting dissent, but by "rule of law" --albeit it rubber-stamped law-- and not by instilling fear like in the bad old days. But now the levels of mutual distrust are rising again. Oligarchs will like to nip that in the bud. So much easier if all they have to do, as Putin has permitted them to do before, is to stay out of politics, and then not worry about who's watching what they do with their business arrangements...

The ones who say "Russia should do more!" the loudest right now may well among the first to lap up some of whatever's probably being put on offer right now. It's not like they can be seen to be wavering. That way lies their own accidental fall out some window at Vlad's pleasure.

But it's also not like Russia can pull a win out of the hat here. They overextended themselves, lost the coin flip on how well "conscription" would play in the hinterlands, are relying on assistance from a frenemy held close (Iran), which state Russia does not really want to help arrive at a state of possessing nuclear weapons. Turkey is a sometime friend, sometime frenemy. Even though its accession to the EU now seems permanently stalled, Turkey does not wish to become a pariah to European nations, so has been trying to dance the dance on the matter of Ukrainian sovereignty.

So the military and the Russian hardliners look around and find themselves regarding what, outsourced manufacture of Iran-designed drones? Some imported North Korean weapons?

And meanwhile Joe Biden is renewing neglected contacts in South America, including making friends with Venezuela with an eye to slowing down any renewed interest on the part of the also overextended Chinese to improve their LatAm influence.

Eeek, what's Russia to do? Dial 911 and see if Cuba has any gold under the mattress? Seriously? The new head of the once renowned Cuban Ballet lacks even a theatre in which to showcase her dancers... all the stages have worm-eaten floorboards in the decades of neglect under Fidel.

Oh I know: how about pull in horns, declare victory, get home and start trying to get out from under sanctions while selling some oil to whoever will take it and still has an undamaged port or shared pipeline. That way Putin stays in power, food lands on tables, the oligarchs resume their business activities with Putin getting his cut and their explicit support...

Excellent post, thoughtful, nuanced and well worth reading closely.

Two things today are worth noting:

The first is Mr Putin's speech to the Valdai Club (a think tank with close links to the Kremlin) today; while it is clear that his paranoia is becoming more pronounced, - and one wonders who is permitted to tender advice to him (the old "speak truth to power") - nevertheless, some of what he said is worth noting.

Apart from the paranoia, his address is also a sort of call (of the "we have common interests and the West hates and despises us all" variety, railing especially against what he described as "western hegemony", and the position - and thus power - enjoyed by the dollar as a major global currency) to most of the planet that does not comprise "the West" (which seems to be mainly defined as that world which includes the US, UK, EU and NATO).

"Cultural war" stuff - the kind of stuff beloved of the far right everywhere - was another topic attacked, along with sneers at (former) Prime Minister Liz Truss (some of Mr Putin's most vicious personal attacks have been reserved for female political leaders).

Asked whether he thought about Russian casualties, Mr Putin said he constantly thought of Russian soldiers who had fallen in Ukraine, but said Moscow had no choice but to launch what Moscow calls its "special military operation". Mr Putin also said that the costs of the conflict – including to the Russian economy – were unavoidable.

The second story of note is that (and it appears to have been confirmed by credible sources) is that Ksenia Sobchak - socialite, journalist, TV personality, daughter of the (late) one time (liberal) Mayor of (what was then known as) Leningrad (and known mentor of Mr Putin, who studied under him when Mr Sobchak was considered a bright and brilliant and idealistic academic who taught Law in Leningrad State University, and later served under him when Mr Sobchak had become Mayor of the renamed city of St Petersburg), Anatoly Sobchak, - who is reputedly Mr Putin's goddaughter - and who has enjoyed close ties (personal, professional) with the Russian elite, turned up in Lithuania today, complete with Israeli passport, (for Russian passports bearing a tourist stamp for the Baltic region are no longer accepted or deemed valid for short term stays in the Baltic states), a little ahead of a (Russian) warrant that had been issued for her arrest.

This is interesting because it suggests that the - already extremely narrow - space for discussion and dissent is being further reduced - and, moreover, that the (previous) protection - that proximity to power and to political elites - that had been extended to such an individual, no longer seems to be sufficient or no longer applies, or is no longer guaranteed.

 

[Yoused]

Reuters acquired a large trove of documents from an abandoned Russian military outpost in Balaklia, about 50 some miles west of Izium.

Abandoned Russian base holds secrets of retreat in Ukraine

When Russian troops fled the Ukrainian town of Balakliia last month, they left behind thousands of documents that show in unprecedented detail the inner workings of the Russian war machine.

www.reuters.com

The article is lengthy an a bit graphic in places.

 

[Colstan]

Remember when Kyiv was supposed to fall within 72 hours?

Now, Ukrainian Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov says that Ukraine will launch a military offensive to recapture Crimea in the new year.

Ukraine's Intel Chief On How The War Ends, Putin's Nuclear Threats, Iranian Drones, And More

In a wide-ranging interview with The War Zone, Ukrainian Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov answers our questions about the war and where it's headed.

www.thedrive.com

At this point, I have no reason to think that Ukraine won't accomplish that goal, and continue to gain ground against the Russians going forward, particularly since the occupiers won't be ready for the harsh winter to come.

"We finished up with the Russian professional army, and now it's time to defeat unprofessional."
- Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

 

[AG_PhamD]

Remember when Kyiv was supposed to fall within 72 hours?

Now, Ukrainian Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov says that Ukraine will launch a military offensive to recapture Crimea in the new year.

Ukraine's Intel Chief On How The War Ends, Putin's Nuclear Threats, Iranian Drones, And More

In a wide-ranging interview with The War Zone, Ukrainian Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov answers our questions about the war and where it's headed.

www.thedrive.com

At this point, I have no reason to think that Ukraine won't accomplish that goal, and continue to gain ground against the Russians going forward, particularly since the occupiers won't be ready for the harsh winter to come.

"We finished up with the Russian professional army, and now it's time to defeat unprofessional."
- Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

View attachment 18697

I think Crimea will be challenging to recapture. The Ukrainians have been fighting Russians there since 2014. The Russians have had ample time to fortify their claim. Crimea is basically an island and there’s only 2 ways in from mainland Ukraine. On the other hand, as I’m sure you know, Russia only has road in and it’s a bridge that was recently damaged. Ukraine has no Navy to speak of though, which will make things difficult. I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia just throws wave after wave of untrained soldier into Crimea to defend it, especially as it will inevitably be their last stand.

That said, Ukraine is harassing Crimea again, attacking the Russian’s naval port is Sevastopol with drones and autonomous boats. Allegedly they blew up a large fuel and weapons depot, damaged a minesweeper, and may have damaged the Admiral Makarov frigate, the successor to the Moskova as the Black Sea flagship. Russia only admits to the minesweeper being struck. Rumor has it the Makarov’s radar may have been damaged.



if Ukraine can build autonomous bosts and Russia allows them to get that can get that close, you’d think someone would give them a couple torpedos they could strap on to a larger boat. Or figure out a way to launch some anti ship missiles. Relying on a slow (relative to a missle), tiny boats laden with explosive, hoping get close enough to explode and cause damage seems awfully wishful. In the video where the drone boat appears to be aimlessly driving in a circle behind the ship I’m guessing it’s probably trapped in the ship’s wake. This attack method is really only sounds feasible with stationary or very slowly moving ships.

Now Russia has cancelled the agreement for allowing Ukrainian grain shipments.

Between blockading grain exports that feed swaths of the world, destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure (mind you they previously exported almost 4000 gigawatts to places like Romania, Slovakia, Hungary), and causing a European energy crisis (incl likely blowing up Nordstream), Russia is really asking for other countries to get involved.

 

[Yoused]

Russia is really asking for other countries to get involved

umm …

 

[Colstan]

I think Crimea will be challenging to recapture.

I never said that it would be easy, happen anytime soon, be a result of a military operation, or even happen at all. My post was more inspirational, rather than using my non-existent knowledge of combined forces warfare. To steal a line I've used concerning a certain fruit company, I've often heard "Ukraine can't do" and then they go and do it.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia just throws wave after wave of untrained soldier into Crimea to defend it, especially as it will inevitably be their last stand.

As the meme goes, and following General Zaluzhnyi's line of thinking, "more ors for the meat grinder", as crude as that is. Even Russia is eventually going to run out of warm bodies to toss away. Those new recruits are untrained, ill-equipped, and underfed, assuming they have any food or supplies at all. Right now, those men are just target practice for the Ukrainians.

I don't know what's going to happen in the UKR-RU conflict, that history is still being written. What I do know is that, as of this moment, Ukraine is advancing while the Russians are taking a pummeling the likes which they haven't seen in generations. Ukraine is roughly the size of Texas, they have taken back territory roughly the size of Delaware, and I see no reason to think that Ukraine won't continue to push the occupiers out of their homeland.

 

[AG_PhamD]

I never said that it would be easy, happen anytime soon, be a result of a military operation, or even happen at all. My post was more inspirational, rather than using my non-existent knowledge of combined forces warfare. To steal a line I've used concerning a certain fruit company, I've often heard "Ukraine can't do" and then they go and do it.


As the meme goes, and following General Zaluzhnyi's line of thinking, "more ors for the meat grinder", as crude as that is. Even Russia is eventually going to run out of warm bodies to toss away. Those new recruits are untrained, ill-equipped, and underfed, assuming they have any food or supplies at all. Right now, those men are just target practice for the Ukrainians.

I don't know what's going to happen in the UKR-RU conflict, that history is still being written. What I do know is that, as of this moment, Ukraine is advancing while the Russians are taking a pummeling the likes which they haven't seen in generations. Ukraine is roughly the size of Texas, they have taken back territory roughly the size of Delaware, and I see no reason to think that Ukraine won't continue to push the occupiers out of their homeland.

The only place I’m aware they’re advancing is in Bakhmut. They’ve been pushing there for 5 months and have been stalled out for most of it. They’ve only relatively recently gained traction, and by that 100-200 meters per day by their own admission. The Wagner Group is apparently in charge of this effort. Apparently they are just sending wave after wave after wave of soldiers into a literal meat grinder. And these are probably mostly the conscripted prisoners.

I think the best case scenario is somehow Russia strikes a peace deal for Crimea. Maybe some slivers in the Donbas if they’re very lucky. The Ukrainians no intention of allowing that. And the cost of gaining nothing since 2014 (or perhaps losing everything)— profoundly deteriorating their military capabilities years if not decades to come, if not permanently. It probably also doesn’t help their country to kill off a large swath of men of reproductive age. I assume they will not find their way back into the international markets until they agree to pay war reparations too.

It’s hard to foresee any possibility of anything remotely resembling success for Russia. The longer this war goes on the more capabilities Ukraine will acquire and the less Russia will have.

It’s fascinating Russians can still go along with this. When they’re using prisoners as soldiers and buying weapons from North Korea and Iran, they must know their situation is dire.

 

[Colstan]

The only place I’m aware they’re advancing is in Bakhmut. They’ve been pushing there for 5 months and have been stalled out for most of it. They’ve only relatively recently gained traction, and by that 100-200 meters per day by their own admission. The Wagner Group is apparently in charge of this effort. Apparently they are just sending wave after wave after wave of soldiers into a literal meat grinder. And these are probably mostly the conscripted prisoners.

Considering that Ukraine gained 3,800km2 in just one week back in September, it doesn't surprise me that the Russian's have advanced little since the initial invasion started. They've been hamstrung by many things, but the most obvious is the dependency upon rail supply. Once the three-pronged attack went beyond supply lines, and then later Ukraine's relentless attacks on Russian railways and trucking, the RU military advances stalled and never recovered.

I think the best case scenario is somehow Russia strikes a peace deal for Crimea. Maybe some slivers in the Donbas if they’re very lucky. The Ukrainians no intention of allowing that.

At this point, Ukraine has shown no interest in bargaining any of their land or people away to satisfy Putin, and I don't see why they should. I remember Macron saying not to humiliate Putin. I disagree, that's exactly what needs to happen, and even if that wasn't the goal, it's way too late to prevent Putin's total humiliation; that shipped sailed months ago.

It’s fascinating Russians can still go along with this.

Russians are historically used to hardship, suffering, and being told what to do by a strongman. You'd think that, at some point, they'd had enough of that, but evidently they are willing to take on more suffering to further Putin's quixotic promise of a greater Russian empire, whether through fear, patriotism, or simply not knowing what else to do.

From what I gather, Putin's original goal was to create a new Russian empire, resurrecting the borders of Nicholas II. The president of Belarus, already a Russian puppet, had a map behind him that leaked invasion plans of Moldova. Finland was destined to fall after that, and so on. This didn't go according to plan. Putin can't extract himself from Ukraine because that would be admitting defeat, something that he can't do. Nor can Russia continue this war, because it is coming at great cost, which they may never recover from. It's quite the mess that Mr. Putin has gotten himself into.

What I am certain of is that nobody will take the conventional Russian military seriously ever again, not for another generation, at least. Nor will anyone underestimate the Ukrainian people or military. A lot of the news coverage has been about Russia's failures, while Ukraine's successes have often been ignored, especially in the early months. It's hard to quantify both Russia's complete, systematic failure at every level, compared to Ukraine's outstanding over-performance, equally at every level.

It’s hard to foresee any possibility of anything remotely resembling success for Russia. The longer this war goes on the more capabilities Ukraine will acquire and the less Russia will have.

If I were to sit down and write a script for how this would unfold, this is the scenario I would have used for a complete and total Russian failure, with a near perfect record on the part of the Ukrainians. If I had released this script back in January, nobody would have believed it, including myself.

 

[Eric]

1,000 Russian soldiers killed in 24 hours as Ukraine strikes unequipped troops​

1,000 Russian soldiers killed in 24 hours as Ukraine strikes unequipped troops | 10 points

At least 1,000 Russian soldiers have been killed as Ukraine targeted unequipped Russian troops deployed on the frontlines of war. This is the largest number of casualties on the Russian side since the beginning of the war.

www.indiatoday.in

As long as Putin lives, people will keep dying by the thousands on both sides. Someone needs to snuff him out.

 

[lizkat]

1,000 Russian soldiers killed in 24 hours as Ukraine strikes unequipped troops​

1,000 Russian soldiers killed in 24 hours as Ukraine strikes unequipped troops | 10 points

At least 1,000 Russian soldiers have been killed as Ukraine targeted unequipped Russian troops deployed on the frontlines of war. This is the largest number of casualties on the Russian side since the beginning of the war.

www.indiatoday.in

As long as Putin lives, people will keep dying by the thousands on both sides. Someone needs to snuff him out.

The guy is committing war crimes against his own troops, sending them untrained into battle with old and dysfunctional or no weapons at all. This cannot be escaping awareness of their families back home by now.

The problem is that as pressure against him rises at home. he's less likely to be persuaded by his advisers to find some kind of off ramp unless they can dress it up like a stunning victory. A little late for that now. What Putin has had his shelling forces do lately -- attacking fundamental infrastructure in Kyiv before hard winter sets in-- is just sickening, no matter from which country one is reading that news. Everyone understands lethality of cold, of no water or heat. To do it intentionally and to a civilian population is beyond the pale.

How does one dress that up as mission accomplished and so time to come home? I fear he will stage some kind of false flag maneuver with unconventional weapons, and then use unconventional weapons in retaliation and THEN declare that a mission of "self defense" has been accomplished despite great odds and sacrifices yada yada.

 

[Nycturne]

What Putin has had his shelling forces do lately -- attacking fundamental infrastructure in Kyiv before hard winter sets in-- is just sickening, no matter from which country one is reading that news. Everyone understands lethality of cold, of no water or heat. To do it intentionally and to a civilian population is beyond the pale.

There's logic to it. A very dark, despicable logic, for sure. My guess is that the goal here is to induce war fatigue on the civilian population in Ukraine, and get them to apply pressure on the government to capitulate at the negotiation table in order to just end it. Doing it right before a hard winter is a way to amplify the effect. There's been folks that claim that civilian war fatigue takes a bit longer to develop in authoritarian regimes due to the effect of propaganda, which would work in Putin's favor. So long as Putin can erode Ukraine's will faster than it erodes at home, I'd bet he thinks he can get what he wants that way.

That all said, you can't guarantee that it will be the result. It's possible it can backfire and strengthen the resolve of Ukrainians to ensure Russia can't just do this again 10 years from now. Just consider how the UK handled bombings by the Germans in WWII. Ukraine has a military that with aid is doing better than anyone expected, and a government that is doing its damnedest to continue being angry, loud, and focused on the threat. I could very easily see Ukraine seeing this as another reason to give Russia the finger instead of give in.

How does one dress that up as mission accomplished and so time to come home?

You don't, but this is just a means for Putin's military goals here.

 

[Eric]

There's logic to it. A very dark, despicable logic, for sure. My guess is that the goal here is to induce war fatigue on the civilian population in Ukraine, and get them to apply pressure on the government to capitulate at the negotiation table in order to just end it. Doing it right before a hard winter is a way to amplify the effect. There's been folks that claim that civilian war fatigue takes a bit longer to develop in authoritarian regimes due to the effect of propaganda, which would work in Putin's favor. So long as Putin can erode Ukraine's will faster than it erodes at home, I'd bet he thinks he can get what he wants that way.

That all said, you can't guarantee that it will be the result. It's possible it can backfire and strengthen the resolve of Ukrainians to ensure Russia can't just do this again 10 years from now. Just consider how the UK handled bombings by the Germans in WWII. Ukraine has a military that with aid is doing better than anyone expected, and a government that is doing its damnedest to continue being angry, loud, and focused on the threat. I could very easily see Ukraine seeing this as another reason to give Russia the finger instead of give in.



You don't, but this is just a means for Putin's military goals here.

Russia learned absolutely nothing from Afghanistan. If their people don't want you there, you'll never get them to capitulate under any circumstances and you'll end up leaving with your trail between your legs and nothing to show for it other than mass casualties and worn-torn regions. Shit, it wasn't even so long ago, how could they not get this?

If the snake won't relent, you cut its head off. What Putin is doing is nothing short of pure genocide.

 

[Yoused]

Russian court imposes second fine on Wikimedia for not removing entries that make the Kremlin sad (something to do with non-violent resistance in Ukraine). Together, the fines total 5 million rubles (about 17 shillings). How they can hope to make this stick is kind of baffling to me, though there does appear to be a branch office in Russia.