Russia-Ukraine

We should also be giving them cluster bombs, I get that it's illegal in many countries but as long as they're hitting Russian bases it's justified. Russia is using them to kill civilians by bombing schools, hospitals, apartments, etc. It's only fair that they're able to fight back with the same fire power.
Putin would be obligated to respond to the perceived escalation of US or NATO weapons being used on Russian homeland. Ukraine has been very careful to only use its own drones on these airbases. Ukraine has already won this war—it is now certain to turn towards the west while Putin has failed to achieve anything he promised from this conflict. He is a pariah on the world stage, Russia's military and economy is in shambles. Ukraine need only keep up the tempo to keep pressure on Russia and prevent them from pausing the conflict to regroup.

I believe the cluster munitions they are looking for would be to work with howitzers and possibly HIMARS- and wouldn’t be used on Russian territory. These would increase the effectiveness of their artillery and help mitigate/slow the problem of dwindling US/NATO inventory of conventional artillery shells and GMLRS missiles that we have been providing.

Obviously cluster munitions are controversial due to the risk unexploded submunitions pose to civilians. White phosphorous, also released in clusters, kills by the toxic smoke it’s produces, direct burns, or subsequent fires. Both are “banned”by the UN not because of their method of killing, but because they can kill indiscriminately.

The US has not agreed to ban cluster bombs or white phosphorus but try to avoid using such weapons whenever possible. We developed a safer alternative for cluster bombs, no longer make them, haven’t used them in almost 2 decades, and have a large stockpile of them that will likely otherwise never be used.

Russia has been using cluster munitions extensively in Ukraine, including white phosphorous. Considering cluster munitions would be used on Ukrainian soil, would pose a risk to Ukrainian civilians, and would be their responsibility to clean them up and deal with any consequences. But it also means their soldiers would have to deal with them if they advance on ground where they shot them, which will likely slow them down.

Ultimately, I think it’s really up to Ukraine to weigh if the pros outweigh the cons. I think the US is more concerned about the optics than anything.

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As for attacking Russia proper, Ukraine needs to be careful. Even if a target is fair game, it still has to be considered will Russia treat it as an attack worthy of responding with WMD’s. That said, I don’t think they’d ever be stupid enough to do that, but if Ukraine hit downtown Moscow the chances are much higher. Hitting an airbase in the middle of nowhere, probably not. Also worth noting, if Ukraine ever missed and hit an apartment building, it could create big problems.

The sporadic tempo they use has been very wise- it keeps the pressure down, doesn’t make Russia feel overly threatened, and instills complacency allowing for future attacks. As it is, Ukraines best use of their limited military assets is striking Russian targets that directly play a role.

I mostly agree with @bwinter88. Generally speaking Ukraine does not need the US to provide long range weapons at this point. They’re winning the war as it is and such weapons may unnecessarily rule up Russia more than they are. There applications where they would be useful, but may not be necessary.

Perhaps more importantly we could scrounge up more air dense systems and associated missiles, as well as ship over some giant mobile power generators (ie 25MW), power substations, and boilers.
 
The US is finally seriously considering our long-range Patriot air defense system(s) to Ukraine.


I’m not sure if this is actually going to happen- this system is one of our premier pieces of military technology. Putting it in Ukraine risks capture from Russia (albeit highly unlikely as it will be far from the front lines) or exposing how it used operationally. It’s an extremely complex system that requires a lot of manpower and extensive training (usually 1 year+)- not just to operate but to maintain and service. Both a pro/con- the Russians will likely try to target these for a political win, which would make the US look bad if but also may divert Russia’s limited weapon supplies.

The other issue is a Patriot battery costs around $1B. Each missile costs $3-5 million so they probably won’t be used to take out $20,000 drones. It would be best reserved for ballistic missiles, aircraft, and cruise missiles.

Hopefully the Israelis will change their mind about supplying Iron Dome, which would be useful against drones and potentially rockets, and artillery if they’re located that close to the front lines.

There’s never going to be a true, comprehensive air defense system like Israel in the foreseeable future. It costs them many many billions and decades with multiple layers of systems to secure most of a country that’s the size of New Jersey. But every little bit helps I suppose.

I don’t see how supplying Ukraine with Patriot could possibly escalate the situation anymore than it has. Short of WMD’s, which I think they know would mean game over, I can’t see what options Russia has left. They’re already attacking civilian infrastructure with the intention of hurting civilians.
 
I don’t see how supplying Ukraine with Patriot could possibly escalate the situation anymore than it has. Short of WMD’s, which I think they know would mean game over, I can’t see what options Russia has left. They’re already attacking civilian infrastructure with the intention of hurting civilians.

I'm wondering if Patriot would be reserved for what would be believed to be an incoming tactical nuclear strike; tipped off pre-launch to Ukraine from the US. Regarding training...that may have already been underway in the US or a European ally.
 
100% there was backchannel communication from the US to Russia saying, if you keep targeting civilians, we will send Patriot systems. As @AG_PhamD said, Russia has no escalatory options left outside of WMDs.
 
...Hopefully the Israelis will change their mind about supplying Iron Dome, which would be useful against drones and potentially rockets, and artillery if they’re located that close to the front lines.....

I think it's unlikely to happen. Israel has some sort of understanding with Russia regarding Syria that allows the Israelis to bomb Iranian and Hezbollah forces pretty much as Israel feels necessary. Providing Iron Dome to Ukraine would almost likely rupture that working agreement.
 
I think it's unlikely to happen. Israel has some sort of understanding with Russia regarding Syria that allows the Israelis to bomb Iranian and Hezbollah forces pretty much as Israel feels necessary. Providing Iron Dome to Ukraine would almost likely rupture that working agreement.
Though I imagine one thing that this war has taught Israel is that it may need to reevaluate Russia’s ability to stop it from bombing Syria even if it tried.
 
Though I imagine one thing that this war has taught Israel is that it may need to reevaluate Russia’s ability to stop it from bombing Syria even if it tried.

yes, certainly, although I suspect they've paid a lot of attention to Russia's successes and failures in Syria over the last 6 or 7 years and already feel confident.

But I also suspect that Russia not trying to stop the bombing isn't the only benefit Israel gets out of the situation.
 
I think it's unlikely to happen. Israel has some sort of understanding with Russia regarding Syria that allows the Israelis to bomb Iranian and Hezbollah forces pretty much as Israel feels necessary. Providing Iron Dome to Ukraine would almost likely rupture that working agreement.

Yes, that is definitely true. But the calculus seems to be changing slightly now that Russia is buying weapons from Iran. I think it’s a lot easier to justify selling defensive weapons than offensive weapons.

That said I’m not even sure the capacity exists to hand over a meaningful number of systems even if they wanted to. It’s not like most countries that have a near zero chance of ever using their air defense systems on home turf. And they probably don’t really want to hand over one of the most advanced air defense systems in the world to an unstable country.
 
I'm wondering if Patriot would be reserved for what would be believed to be an incoming tactical nuclear strike; tipped off pre-launch to Ukraine from the US. Regarding training...that may have already been underway in the US or a European ally.

I would think it would be reserved for defending against ballistic missiles, as they are the most difficult to shoot down and not covered by many of not all of the other air defense systems Ukraine. NASMS, HAWK, Buk, probably most if not all of their S-300s are not designed to intercept ballistic missiles.

Many of Russia’s cruise and ballistic missile platforms like Kalibr and Iskander are designed to carry either conventional or nuclear payloads. There seems to be some ability to track whether or not Russia is prepping to launch nukes, but I’m not sure it could be determined which incoming missiles are carrying nuclear warheads and which are not. (Then there is the challenge to discern what to intercept if the ballistic missiles has MIRVs, multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles, usually including decoy warheads, amongst other decoys like chaff).

For cruise missiles, I suppose you never really know what they’re targeting exactly until the last moments- unless the target is in the middle of nowhere and can be inferred. So I suppose Patriot could be a last line of defense given its costs, but then you’re not taking advantage of its long range capabilities. So I suppose it could be used to cover high value targets that are beyond short range air defense systems.

Perhaps it may serve best as a target for Russia to waste their time and resources trying to hit its multiple components.

If the Russians were to use a nuclear weapon, I suspect their first move would be to hit the middle of nowhere, like the middle of the Black Sea, to flex and panic the world, while also not being responsible for any loss of life. Perhaps even doing a “test” on their own territory. I think if they did this, the outcome would ultimately be very bad for them and they know this.
 

The US may be providing JDAM kits to Ukraine. These $25,000 kits turn cheap “dumb” bombs into guided bombs with an accuracy of 1m. It also allows the bomb to glide 15 miles from where it is dropped. Considering Ukrainian airspace is too dangerous for the Russia airforce due to all the air defense systems and MANPADs/stingers, this could be a significant improvement in Ukraines offensive capabilities.

Saab and Boeing have also created (years ago) the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb, which pairs cheap bombs with existing rockets to create a missile with 150km range, launched from HIMARS. This provides a solution to the dwindling GMLRS stock while also costing about $40,000 instead of $100,000. There is talk of supplying Ukraine with this option.
 
I'm convinced Putin has a direct line to Fox News.

 
I'm convinced Putin has a direct line to Fox News.



This is such a bizarre take.

The way Carlson and some others present this, they make it sound like Christianity has been banned in Ukraine. The fact of the matter is Zelensky has supported proposed legislation to ban the Ukrainian branch of the Russian Orthodox (Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate) from being affiliated with the Russian Orthodox Church.

Confusingly, there is also the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, which previously split from Russia control. Zelensky has no problem with this group, or Protestants, or Catholics. This is not context provided by Carlson.

Also not mentioned, the impetus to bar the UOC from Russian influence is because allegedly UOC leaders have been supplying Russia with intel as well as protecting “dubious” people and found to be in possession of Russian military recruitment pamphlets… in other words, there is apparently evidentl w the UOC has been conspiring against Ukraine.

It’s also worth mentioning, Kirill, the Patriarch of the ROC is a complete political pawn of Putin. He is a vocal proponent of war and hate, and corrupt as they get. In fact, he has promoted this war using bigotry like homophobia and transphobia. And not respectful as possible anti-gay marriage type “homophobia”, I mean explicit hatred for homosexuality.

I’m not sure how the proposed legislation would affect the members of the UOC who remain loyal to Russia, but as of now nothing AFAIK has been done to impede their ability to practice their beliefs.

It’s definitely a complex, nuanced issue. War and times of crisis always create issues on freedom like these. But to say there is a “war on Christianity” is totally disingenuous.

I get Tucker Carlson does not really support American involvement in Ukraine- or really anywhere else for that matter, but this is not a good argument and it’s not in good faith either.

I also can’t help to point out that calling this “Zelensky’s War on Christianity”, whether intended or not, alludes to say that Zelensky, a Jew, is trying suppress all Christianity… which will probably ignite some conspiracy theory on the antisemitic far right that relates to existing conspiracy theories about Jews allegedly suppressing Christian ideology.
 
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This is such a bizarre take.

The way Carlson and some others present this, they make it sound like Christianity has been banned in Ukraine. The fact of the matter is Zelensky has supported proposed legislation to ban the Ukrainian branch of the Russian Orthodox (Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate) from being affiliated with the Russian Orthodox Church.

Confusingly, there is also the Orthodox Church of Ukraine, which previously split from Russia control. Zelensky has no problem with this group, or Protestants, or Catholics. This is not context provided by Carlson.

Also not mentioned, the impetus to bar the UOC from Russian influence is because allegedly UOC leaders have been supplying Russia with intel as well as protecting “dubious” people and found to be in possession of Russian military recruitment pamphlets… in other words, there is apparently evidentl w the UOC has been conspiring against Ukraine.

It’s also worth mentioning, Kirill, the Patriarch of the ROC is a complete political pawn of Putin. He is a vocal proponent of war and hate, and corrupt as they get.

I’m not sure how the proposed legislation would affect the members of the UOC who remain loyal to Russia, but as of now nothing AFAIK has been done to impede their ability to practice their beliefs.

It’s definitely a complex, nuanced issue. War and times of crisis always create issues on freedom like these. But to say there is a “war on Christianity” is totally disingenuous.

I get Tucker Carlson does not really support American involvement in Ukraine- or really anywhere else for that matter, but this is not a good argument and it’s not in good faith either.

I also can’t help to point out that calling this “Zelensky’s War on Christianity”, whether intended or not, alludes to say that Zelensky, a Jew, is trying suppress all Christianity… which will probably ignite some conspiracy theory on the antisemitic far right that relates to existing conspiracy theories about Jews allegedly suppressing Christian ideology.
It was good to see both Democrats and Republicans stand behind Zelenskyy during his address yesterday, I get there are a few against our involvement but they seem like outliers on the fringe, like Tucker.
 
It was good to see both Democrats and Republicans stand behind Zelenskyy during his address yesterday, I get there are a few against our involvement but they seem like outliers on the fringe, like Tucker.

Absolutely. A solid majority of Americans support Ukraine and supporting Ukraine financially/militarily. I think most politicians realize the importance of containing Russian’s aggression and supporting Ukraine is actually a truly incredible value for money considering what this war has done to Putin’s Russia.

Of the politicians who don’t seem all that supportive, I think a lot of them actually do support intervention, they just want to highlight concerns they have. And then those who outright object entirely I think are a very small number- people like Tucker Carlson. From what I’ve seen he is in a minority at Fox News. When push comes to shove how many politicians are really going to piss off their defense contractor constituents?

It’s worth noting opposition does exist both on the right and the (progressive) left. I think it’s fair to say not all of their points are illegitimate (this war on Christianity certainly isn’t)… but often times I believe are not considered within the entire context of the situation.

One valid criticism is how much other countries have spent supporting Ukraine… France, Germany. I’lll concede their economies have taken a big hit, but still. France has provided less than $1B… that’s pocket change for Europes 3rd biggest economy.

We wasted trillions in Afghanistan over 2 decades, fighting a war without purpose for a population that largely ambivalent about the changes we tried to make. We gave billions in weapons to a paper Army that crumbled immediately, literally. Now with Ukraine, we have a population motivated to defend themselves, aspiring to modern western democratic ideals, they’re willing to fight a war alone (risking their own soldiers lives while we risk none) to defend the Western World… and yet it baffles me some people think this war isn’t worth the cost?
 
Here’s a story that hasn’t had really any press attention:

Dmitry Rogozin… He was the bombastic former head of Roscosmos (Russian space agency) that threatened to disconnect the Russian segments of the International Space Station, refuse to boost its orbit, refuse to sell launch services for NASA astronauts, etc. He had no space/engineering background, but previously the deputy PM of defense, NATO ambassador.

He’s been recently been cosplaying being an unofficial military official in occupied Ukraine. He and Prighozin of Wagner appear to be having a feud. Perhaps it was Wagner that leaked his location.

Apparently despite initial claims of a small shoulder wound, he actually may be seriously injured with shrapnel to the head and spine.
 
...He’s been recently been cosplaying being an unofficial military official in occupied Ukraine. He and Prighozin of Wagner appear to be having a feud. Perhaps it was Wagner that leaked his location....

I wonder if Putin is worried about Prighozin......I suspect he should be.

Meanwhile, is Putin plotting another attempt to seize Kyiv with a new strike from forces currently in Belarus? There's been a lot of speculation about such a move.

I suppose that fairly soon we'll be seeing the start of winter offensives by both sides
 
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I wonder if Putin is worried about Prighozin......I suspect he should be.

Meanwhile, is Putin plotting another attempt to seize Kyiv with a new strike from forces currently in Belarus? There's been a lot of speculation about such a move.

I suppose that fairly soon we'll be seeing the start of winter offensives by both sides

It could be possible Putin and Prighozin have some sort of agreement that Prighozin will be the successor? He is basically the only public person allowed to strongly and explicitly criticize the Russian military. I would think if Putin truly considered Prighozin a threat he would have him assassinated as he has done to countless others. Maybe he’s fearful of retribution Prighozin loyalists but The Wagner Group only exists because Putin allows it. Private military contractors are actually illegal in Russia- Wagner blatantly operates above the law. If Putin wanted to dissolve it or install a new leader, I’m sure there’s a way he could make that happen.

Prighozin is not considered the favorite to take over from Putin, but is definitely a legitimate contender. Perhaps Putin is trying to shoehorn him into power? I’m not sure how other elites feel about him and how much influence they have.

Wagner’s had waged a months-long relentless attack on Bakhmut that has gained little territory at the expense of many thousands of lives and tens of millions in hardware every month. Many experts seem to believe the city is of little strategic significance and postulate extensive resources are being spent to primarily achieve symbolic, propaganda win- because Russia has pretty much only lost territory since their initial invasion. If Wagner takes Bakhmut, it will be a win for Prighozin and will likely increase his social status and popularity. This could earn himself a position as defense minister, which he seems to by vying for. (Having the defense minister also be the owner of a huge private military seems like peak quintessential Russian corruption)

That said, this war drags or becomes far more disastrous than it already is for Russian and Putin is thrown out of office, Prighozin will likely lose out as well considering his involvement.

I talked about Belarus in an earlier post, but I think it’s highly unlikely. The Belarusian civilians have no appetite for this war, The country really has nothing to gain and I don’t think they actually have that much to give at this point. They’ve already given a lot of hardware to Russia, what they do have left probably not well maintained (and old to begin with), and their army is small, probably not well trained, and lacking real world experience. At best they might be able to cause a diversion, but Ukraine has heavily fortified its border with Belarus at this point. I think Belarus is aware they would not fair well. And if they go on the attack, they open themselves up to attacks they may not be able to defend.
 
The US is finally seriously considering our long-range Patriot air defense system(s) to Ukraine.


I’m not sure if this is actually going to happen- this system is one of our premier pieces of military technology. Putting it in Ukraine risks capture from Russia (albeit highly unlikely as it will be far from the front lines) or exposing how it used operationally. It’s an extremely complex system that requires a lot of manpower and extensive training (usually 1 year+)- not just to operate but to maintain and service. Both a pro/con- the Russians will likely try to target these for a political win, which would make the US look bad if but also may divert Russia’s limited weapon supplies.

The other issue is a Patriot battery costs around $1B. Each missile costs $3-5 million so they probably won’t be used to take out $20,000 drones. It would be best reserved for ballistic missiles, aircraft, and cruise missiles.

Hopefully the Israelis will change their mind about supplying Iron Dome, which would be useful against drones and potentially rockets, and artillery if they’re located that close to the front lines.

There’s never going to be a true, comprehensive air defense system like Israel in the foreseeable future. It costs them many many billions and decades with multiple layers of systems to secure most of a country that’s the size of New Jersey. But every little bit helps I suppose.

I don’t see how supplying Ukraine with Patriot could possibly escalate the situation anymore than it has. Short of WMD’s, which I think they know would mean game over, I can’t see what options Russia has left. They’re already attacking civilian infrastructure with the intention of hurting civilians.
They are making Ukraine pay in a most war crime like manner, because Ukraine said Fuck You Ass Holes, you are not going to have your way with us! I am far from an expert, but what does the United Nations do, when a war criminal country sits on the Security Council? :unsure:
 
I talked about Belarus in an earlier post, but I think it’s highly unlikely. The Belarusian civilians have no appetite for this war, The country really has nothing to gain and I don’t think they actually have that much to give at this point. They’ve already given a lot of hardware to Russia, what they do have left probably not well maintained (and old to begin with), and their army is small, probably not well trained, and lacking real world experience. At best they might be able to cause a diversion, but Ukraine has heavily fortified its border with Belarus at this point. I think Belarus is aware they would not fair well. And if they go on the attack, they open themselves up to attacks they may not be able to defend.

Certainly Belarus has been trying to stay out of the fighting, but in the initial invasion last February, Russian troops that were there on "training exercises" invaded from Belarus. And currently there are additional Russian forces that are on "training exercises" in Belarus, which is certainly part of the concern and speculation that they're now planning something.
 
not a good time to be a friend of Vlad

 
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