Russia-Ukraine

[dada_dave]

In some good news, the Ukrainians are advancing in Kursk. Not clear what the objectives are, could be just to relieve pressure on other fronts by forcing the Russians to relocate troops from other sectors. Could be something bigger. Unclear how much Western weaponry is being used in the attack as there are still some restrictions from some countries on its use inside Russia (much looser than they had been, but there are still some from the US and Germany. Meanwhile the UK and I think maybe France have given the green light to use whatever weapons the Ukrainians need to use wherever they need to use it but the largest percentage of their foreign equipment is US and German).

 

[Cmaier]

In some good news, the Ukrainians are advancing in Kursk. Not clear what the objectives are, could be just to relieve pressure on other fronts by forcing the Russians to relocate troops from other sectors. Could be something bigger. Unclear how much Western weaponry is being used in the attack as there are still some restrictions from some countries on its use inside Russia (much looser than they had been, but there are still some from the US and Germany. Meanwhile the UK and I think maybe France have given the green light to use whatever weapons the Ukrainians need to use wherever they need to use it but the largest percentage of their foreign equipment is US and German).

any chance the f16s are helping?

 

[dada_dave]

any chance the f16s are helping?

The Ukrainians say that they are primarily using the F16s for air defense purposes …. for now. But it’s possible. Certainly they can be equipped with the ground attack weapon systems we’ve jerry rigged onto their aging Su and MiG fighters and probably perform much better. But they don’t have very many right now.

Also while the F16s are not ours a lot of the weapon systems and support are so it’s not clear how much our restrictions apply.

Then again there’s video of Ukrainian armor inside Russia. I’m not well versed enough to identify the tanks being used or who supplied them. So again it’s not clear what is happening with Western restrictions on Ukraine or if we gave them the green light as part of relieving pressure on Ukraine’s defenses elsewhere.

 

[Agent47]

any chance the f16s are helping?

Unlikely -for now. Too low in numbers to make an impact, plus they re needed mostly for air defence (defending against glider bombs us by the Russians, wreaking havoc on the defenders)

 

[dada_dave]

In some good news, the Ukrainians are advancing in Kursk. Not clear what the objectives are, could be just to relieve pressure on other fronts by forcing the Russians to relocate troops from other sectors. Could be something bigger. Unclear how much Western weaponry is being used in the attack as there are still some restrictions from some countries on its use inside Russia (much looser than they had been, but there are still some from the US and Germany. Meanwhile the UK and I think maybe France have given the green light to use whatever weapons the Ukrainians need to use wherever they need to use it but the largest percentage of their foreign equipment is US and German).

A small update on this. They struck a Russian reinforcement column - the Russians are claiming HIMARS (GMLRS) but who knows. The column was about 18 miles from the front line, which is within (extreme) artillery range (long range artillery doesn't want to be close to the frontline but even positioned far in the back could still hit that), but that could still mean US or German provided equipment. The video of the strikes from drone footage show impressively accurate fire whatever it was.

In terms of what I think is going on, for the last two years the Russians have been able to effectively concentrate their manpower advantage on the frontlines within Ukraine "knowing" that Ukraine is unable to attack across (primarily due to Western restrictions) while Ukraine has to spread its forces out because the Russians could, in theory (and in practice given the recent attack from Belgorod Oblast on Kharkiv), could attack anywhere from Belarus to Rostov. This exacerbates Russia's manpower advantage. Forcing Russia to defend its own territory could thin out its lines out and stop the slow grinding advances they've been making in the Donbas based on their meat grinder tactics. Can't do that as effectively if they haven't got the manpower.

A further interesting wrinkle is that the Sudzha, the primary town that the Ukrainians have captured is also home to the Gazprom facility that ships natural gas through Ukraine to the rest of Europe. The agreement that allows this oddity to take place expires in 2024 (and unsurprisingly Ukraine is unwilling to extend it) and Ukraine may be indirectly expediting its demise: forcing the Russians to retake their territory could risk destroying a strategically important facility while the Ukrainians can claim (not without reason) that the Russians, not they, are responsible for its destruction. Of course the Russians might not care too much since they'll be losing access to Europe at the end of the year, but even so, its always nice to place your enemy on the horns of a dilemma: continue to allow Ukrainians on Russian soil is obviously a nonstarter but destroying your own valuable strategic locations is also unpalatable.

Edit: and now there’s a report that the Ukrainians have attacked into Belgorod oblast taking the village of Poroz. If so, may it meet with as much success as their Kursk operation has so far.

 

[dada_dave]

A small update on this. They struck a Russian reinforcement column - the Russians are claiming HIMARS (GMLRS) but who knows. The column was about 18 miles from the front line, which is within (extreme) artillery range (long range artillery doesn't want to be close to the frontline but even positioned far in the back could still hit that), but that could still mean US or German provided equipment. The video of the strikes from drone footage show impressively accurate fire whatever it was.

In terms of what I think is going on, for the last two years the Russians have been able to effectively concentrate their manpower advantage on the frontlines within Ukraine "knowing" that Ukraine is unable to attack across (primarily due to Western restrictions) while Ukraine has to spread its forces out because the Russians could, in theory (and in practice given the recent attack from Belgorod Oblast on Kharkiv), could attack anywhere from Belarus to Rostov. This exacerbates Russia's manpower advantage. Forcing Russia to defend its own territory could thin out its lines out and stop the slow grinding advances they've been making in the Donbas based on their meat grinder tactics. Can't do that as effectively if they haven't got the manpower.

A further interesting wrinkle is that the Sudzha, the primary town that the Ukrainians have captured is also home to the Gazprom facility that ships natural gas through Ukraine to the rest of Europe. The agreement that allows this oddity to take place expires in 2024 (and unsurprisingly Ukraine is unwilling to extend it) and Ukraine may be indirectly expediting its demise: forcing the Russians to retake their territory could risk destroying a strategically important facility while the Ukrainians can claim (not without reason) that the Russians, not they, are responsible for its destruction. Of course the Russians might not care too much since they'll be losing access to Europe at the end of the year, but even so, its always nice to place your enemy on the horns of a dilemma: continue to allow Ukrainians on Russian soil is obviously a nonstarter but destroying your own valuable strategic locations is also unpalatable.

Edit: and now there’s a report that the Ukrainians have attacked into Belgorod oblast taking the village of Poroz. If so, may it meet with as much success as their Kursk operation has so far.

Western equipment is involved in the offensive and Washington/Berlin are good with it:

Now Washington and Berlin may be softening their positions more than they’re explicitly saying. A Pentagon spokesperson said Thursday that U.S. officials still “don’t support long-range attacks into Russia” but also that the Kursk incursion is “consistent with our policy.” Perhaps President Joe Biden, freed of electoral considerations, can focus more on how best to help the Ukrainians now—and limit the damage that Donald Trump could do to their cause if he wins in November. The White House’s notably bland statement on the Ukrainian offensive on Wednesday was hardly the sign of an administration in panic.

Excellent

 

[dada_dave]

Unfortunately the Ukrainians in the Donbas (especially the Avdiivka sector) are also taking heavy casualties (not as heavy as the Russians but the Ukrainians don’t view their people as disposable), but the point still stands. Part of the goal of this offensive is likely to relieve pressure there.

The Russians are evacuating more regions of Kursk as the Ukrainians are continuing their advance. There are claims that the Russians are moving significant numbers of troops away from other places in the front line towards Kursk. We’ll see what happens in the next few days.

Unfortunately the Russians are supposedly buying hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles. That’s going to be nasty.

 

[Yoused]

It looks like Ukraine's strategy is to encircle Ukraine. At some point, we should expect to hear them tell Moscow, "You may have Rostov-na-Don back after you return Mariupol and Yalta to us."

 

[dada_dave]

It looks like Ukraine's strategy is to encircle Ukraine. At some point, we should expect to hear them tell Moscow, "You may have Rostov-na-Don back after you return Mariupol and Yalta to us."

There have indeed been suggestions that the Ukrainians are planning on holding the territory for negotiations, trade territories for territory if needed. However the Ukrainians aren’t saying anything about long term goals, which is smart.

 

[dada_dave]

The Russians set a fire at the nuclear power plant under their control in Ukraine. No serious damage reported yet (and hopefully none), but just a little nuclear blackmail.

 

[dada_dave]

On the Kursk offensive:

https://archive.ph/2024.08.11-190420/https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/08/11/ukraines-shock-raid-deep-inside-russia-rages-on

Definitely worth a read.

 

[Eric]

Sad story bro.

 

[Citysnaps]

Sad story bro.

Pot. Kettle. Black.

 

[dada_dave]

Pot. Kettle. Black.

Even that’s giving them too much credit.

Abyss. Brightly colored object. Black. is kinda closer!

This speech and complaining to the UN? I mean it’s seriously delusional.

 

[Agent47]

Even that’s giving them too much credit.

Abyss. Brightly colored object. Black. is kinda closer!

This speech and complaining to the UN? I mean it’s seriously delusional.

I wonder if he himself believes what he says. At this point I believe he does, having completely and utterly lost contact with reality

 

[dada_dave]

I wonder if he himself believes what he says. At this point I believe he does, having completely and utterly lost contact with reality

Could just be playing to the masses inside Russia. It’s hard to tell.

 

[Yoused]

I wonder if he himself believes what he says. At this point I believe he does, having completely and utterly lost contact with reality

There is a time-honored tradition of people in power spouting bullshit. It goes back as far as we have historical records, probably farther, even to the edges of human communication. Vlad knows the mouth noises he is making are insupportable nonsense. He does not care about that, he only cares about whether it is effective. He has been bullshitting Russians for most of his adult life, and for him to stop would almost certainly have to be in front of a 19th floor open window. It is performance art for his people, and also enforcement of the Goebbels strategy of incessantly pounding on a lie until it becomes accepted.

 

[Agent47]

Could just be playing to the masses inside Russia. It’s hard to tell.

His ramblings are certainly not aimed at westerners.

However, there is evidence he lost himself in historical pseudo-facts during the pandemy (he gave respective speeches).

 

[GermanSuplex]

Sad story bro.

Jesus Christ dude. Is he for real?

But, beyond the unbelievable hypocrisy, it must mean he’s on the defense. That’s not the arrogant and lying bravado we’re used to.

 

[Yoused]

Is he for real?

He is basically ДерьмоГиббон except that, in the Russian language, it is more difficult to get away with gibberish.