Russia-Ukraine

[Scepticalscribe]

The closing of the embassy is to me a clear sign that the idea is still to get to Kiev.

Agreed.

 

[User.45]

Russian oligarchs lose $32B as Ukraine crisis escalates

Russia's ultrawealthy oligarchs have lost $32 billion so far this year – and looming sanctions over the deepening conflict in Ukraine are poised to wipe out even more of their fortunes.

www.foxbusiness.com

Without diving into details, nobody should assume they pay their taxes...so probably that's a lot less significant sum to them than one would automatically assume.

 

[User.45]

The closing of the embassy is to me a clear sign that the idea is still to get to Kiev.

My guess would be that Putin now can wait a little. He has the positions, he gains more with waiting a little. EU/US sanctions will just lose out. I can easily see him wait until next winter, when saying no to Russian gas would hurt Europeans way more.

 

[yaxomoxay]

My guess would be that Putin now can wait a little. He has the positions, he gains more with waiting a little. EU/US sanctions will just lose out. I can easily see him wait until next winter, when saying no to Russian gas would hurt Europeans way more.

I am not sure he will wait.

Both US and Europe are playing the game in reverse. “We’ll do more if you do more” is a failing game. Europe and US should’ve imposed the highest sanctions immediately.

Putin now knows that EU and the US are afraid even of sanctions.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

I am not sure he will wait.

Both US and Europe are playing the game in reverse. “We’ll do more if you do more” is a failing game. Europe and US should’ve imposed the highest sanctions immediately.

Again, agreed.

His troops are stationed on the border in considerable numbers and cannot maintain such a "war footing" indefinitely. They will have to be used quite soon or stood down.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Does anybody honestly believe west Ukraine would launch a major offensive against the east? Does Putin honestly believe that the rest of the world would believe that?

If sanctions don't work, what exactly is Plan B?

 

[yaxomoxay]

Again, agreed.

His troops are stationed on the border in considerable numbers and cannot maintain such a "war footing" indefinitely. They will have to be used quite soon or stood down.

Agreed my friend, agreed.

Some serious questions about how long some European countries (namely Germany and Italy, plus eastern bloc) can survive with gas crisis - and generically a different geopolitical structure - without too much disruption of regular life must be asked and answered.

 

[Zoidberg]

Europe and US should’ve imposed the highest sanctions immediately.

Then what would stop Putin from going all in?

By staggering the response, they are leaving a (small) door open to deescalation. The sanctions from Johnson are laughable –agreed– but not pushing all the sanctions right now is the right move (again, with the usual caveat of that it's just my opinion, based on what is publicly known)

 

[yaxomoxay]

Then what would stop Putin from going all in?

Possibly. The threat of ending up in the Stone Age is not the same as the threat of having billionaire losing money, especially if the threat is implemented.

By staggering the response, they are leaving a (small) door open to deescalation. The sanctions from Johnson are laughable –agreed– but not pushing all the sanctions right now is the right move (again, with the usual caveat of that it's just my opinion, based on what is publicly known)

I respectfully disagree. De-escalation should mean: if you release the hostages, I’ll give you something (=release some sanctions).

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Agreed my friend, agreed.

Some serious questions about how long some European countries (namely Germany and Italy, plus eastern bloc) can survive with gas crisis - and generically a different geopolitical structure - without too much disruption of regular life must be asked and answered.

Not to be US-centric, but I don't think the American people are going to tolerate even higher gas prices as an acceptable sacrifice in this situation. Of course, not a lot that can do about that...until it's time to vote.

 

[Zoidberg]

I respectfully disagree. De-escalation should mean: if you release the hostages, I’ll give you something (=release some sanctions).

Putin would never "release the hostages", no matter the cost. He's all about his strong man image and not backing off (and again, it's not like it costs him anything). Compromising in exchange of the lifting of sanctions would be interpreted as a sign of weakness, and he will never do that.

The overarching goal is to try to avert the invasion as much as possible, not to win against him personally.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Possibly. The threat of ending up in the Stone Age is not the same as the threat of having billionaire losing money, especially if the threat is implemented.

I’m sure I’ll be one of the millions (billions?) who end up on the other plain of existence if WW3 breaks out, but I would like to be around when the super wealthy emerge from their mountain bunkers and realize there’s nobody left to do the shit jobs that funds and services their extravagant lifestyle.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Europe and US should’ve imposed the highest sanctions immediately.

Again, agreed.

Does anybody honestly believe west Ukraine would launch a major offensive against the east? Does Putin honestly believe that the rest of the world would believe that?

If sanctions don't work, what exactly is Plan B?

No, but the audience Mr Putin is playing to here is his domestic one, in Russia - for whom the merest figleaf of a nonsensical excuse should suffice - not "the west", let alone the rest of the world.

Not to be US-centric, but I don't think the American people are going to tolerate even higher gas prices as an acceptable sacrifice in this situation. Of course, not a lot that can do about that...until it's time to vote.

The US is self-sufficient re energy, and does not rely on Russia for energy; thus, rising oil & gas prices should not be an issue, unless corporate greed is what is driving such pice increases.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Putin would never "release the hostages", no matter the cost. He's all about his strong man image and not backing off (and again, it's not like it costs him anything). Compromising in exchange of the lifting of sanctions would be interpreted as a sign of weakness, and he will never do that.

The overarching goal is to try to avert the invasion as much as possible, not to win against him personally.

Do you realize that of you say that he’ll never release the hostages with full on sanctions, he’ll certainly not do it with minor sanctions, especially if the reward is a huge country, right?

 

[Huntn]

Meanwhile back home (my home) remember when Russians where GOP Public Enemy No. 1? An amazing effect Donny has had on his adopted political party.

How Tucker Carlson became one of Russia’s biggest cheerleaders

“Right now, one of the biggest cheerleaders for Russia is also the host of the number one show on Fox News,” says Alex Wagner on Tucker Carlson.

www.msnbc.com

WTF…
TUCKER “JUST ASKING QUESTIONS” CARLSON WANTS TO KNOW WHAT PUTIN EVER DID TO YOU

Tucker “Just Asking Questions” Carlson Wants to Know What Putin Ever Did to You

The Fox News opinion star downplayed Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine as a “border dispute” in a markedly pro-Putin segment Tuesday.

www.vanityfair.com

Russian president Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine has the world bracing for what could be the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II. The Kremlin’s actions, which President Joe Biden on Tuesday called “the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” prompted a round of sanctions from Western leaders, while Ukraine preps for a state of emergency to defend itself. Fox News opinion star Tucker Carlson, meanwhile, took a “nothing to see here, folks” approach on Tuesday. Downplaying the spiraling situation as nothing more than a “border dispute,” Carlson suggested Democrats have brainwashed Americans into thinking they have a “patriot duty” to hate Putin and urged viewers to ask themselves whether the more urgent threat to democracy may be closer to home:

“The main thing to know about Ukraine, for our purposes, is that its leader once sent millions of dollars to Joe Biden’s family,” Carlson told viewers, as he chalked the defense the U.S. is mounting of Ukraine up to Biden’s “personal debts to Ukrainian oligarchs.” Later on Tuesday, appearing on Laura Ingraham’s show, Carlson continued to reduce U.S. involvement in the Russia-Ukraine crisis to a “play against fossil fuels,” suggesting the Biden administration is “provoking conflict with the largest gas supplier in Europe” to boost renewable energy. His energy rant came shortly after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz issued an order to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline as part of the punishments leveled by the international community on Russia.

Carlson has used the threat of further Russian invasion of Ukraine not only to attack Biden—as other GOP lawmakers have done—but to reiterate his pro-Russian stance in the style of Donald Trump.

Can you imagine if Trump was calling the shots today as POTUS?

 

[Zoidberg]

Do you realize that of you say that he’ll never release the hostages with full on sanctions, he’ll certainly not do it with minor sanctions, especially if the reward is a huge country, right?

Yes. I understand both sides of the argument. But going all in from the get go means he will go all in, and there are too many lives in the balance to be cavalier about it.

 

[Huntn]

Not to be US-centric, but I don't think the American people are going to tolerate even higher gas prices as an acceptable sacrifice in this situation. Of course, not a lot that can do about that...until it's time to vote.

And you know what that probably means?

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

The US is self-sufficient re energy, and does not rely on Russia for energy; thus, rising oil & gas prices should not be an issue, unless corporate greed is what is driving such pice increases.

Corporate greed is always at play and anytime there is instability anywhere near an oil field anywhere on earth they'll use it as an excuse to jack up prices further.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Yes. I understand both sides of the argument. But going all in from the get go means he will go all in, and there are too many lives in the balance to be cavalier about it.

Let me rephrase it this way.
Putin’s gamble is based in part on his expectation that the West won’t do much, due in part to what @Chew Toy McCoy mentioned. The only way to hope to stop him is to prove that we’re willing to pay the price for it.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

And you know what that probably means?

It means more spite votes against whoever happens to be in office who seems to not be giving a shit about it.