Russia-Ukraine

[MEJHarrison]

In a moment of weakness, I checked out the Breitbart comments section. So you guys know, this is all Biden’s and the Democrats fault. If Trump were still in office, Putin wouldn’t have dared. Pass it on.

It's not just Breirbart. Fox and OAN can confirm those reports.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Putin will only respond to force and from the sounds of it the world is afraid to push back, it's like we've all learned nothing from WWII. Where are our Republican hawks here? IMO if he makes one step toward any other nation you put him down like a rabid animal.

I don't trust him to keep his fingers off the nukes. He's coming off as a bitter ex with a "If I can't have her then nobody can" mentality.

Also the alliance with China is a bit concerning, but given my previous statement, I don't think China would be onboard with a global murder-suicide pact. They aren't teetering on losing their dominance like Russia is.

 

[Huntn]

In a moment of weakness, I checked out the Breitbart comments section. So you guys know, this is all Biden’s and the Democrats fault. If Trump were still in office, Putin wouldn’t have dared. Pass it on.

We just have Trump and Fox News pundits cheering Russia. If Trump was still POTUS, Vlad would have nothing to worry about from the USA,

 

[yaxomoxay]

Are they specifying which one? I have seen reports about fighting at Gostomel airport, a special-use airport that is the home of the Antonov freight operation. It is more or less on the road from Belarus to Kiev.

The largest commercial airport serving Kiev is Boryspil on the other side of the city, and if they have reached that one it would indicate a more dramatic progress of the invasion.

They’re saying both airports are under attack but that Hostomel is already occupied by the Russians.

 

[Huntn]

I see more toothless sanctions incoming…

From the FT:
World leaders divided on whether to eject Russia from Swift payment system
"Boris Johnson, UK prime minister, is pushing “very hard” for Russia to be ejected from the Swift international payments system, a move that would deliver a heavy blow to the country’s banks and its ability to trade beyond its borders.

However, Olaf Scholz, German chancellor, warned Johnson on Thursday that his country would not support such a dramatic move and neither would the EU, according to officials close to sanctions negotiations. A German official declined to comment, saying only that “all options are still on the table”.

I’d say a dramatic move is required after such a drastic action by Russia.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

It's not just Breirbart. Fox and OAN can confirm those reports.

I'd like to know how they square that with Trump quite publically calling Putin a genius for doing this. "He wouldn't dare do that thing that Trump is praising him for!"

But this is another layer of "why now?". Clearly there are a lot of Americans still stuck on tilt and are willing to die on the hill of being contrarian. I'm sure Putin is well aware of that. This even transcends Trump specifically. Some people's brains are irredeemably fried and permanently fused to outrage for the sake of outrage.

 

[yaxomoxay]

I’d say a dramatic move is required after such a drastic action by Russia.

NATO just confirmed not a single solider will enter Ukraine. In other words, Putin will own Ukraine within a few days.

 

[Renzatic]

Just waiting for Trump to chime in with the sound byte that will singlehandedly derail his chances for a second term. I know he’s got it in him. Come on, buddy.

He's already done it, complementing Putin for his genius move.

...it didn't make any difference. Most of them either agreed with him, or said he was being sarcastic, and the fake news media was putting words in his mouth.

 

[User.45]

This is literally the worst case scenario and I concede, @yaxomoxay was right about this. This scenario is pure insanity and i have a difficult time seeing a geopolitical scenario where this doesn’t spiral into a 3rd world war. The only quesTion is whether that will emanate from this conflict directly, or the insane arms race of the coming years.

 

[yaxomoxay]

I honestly think we’re at the brink of a new geopolitical order, one that has been brewing for 20 years.

We told Ukraine that we’d defend her if they got rid of their nukes, and they believed us. Another betrayal by the EU and the US if you ask me.

 

[yaxomoxay]

This is literally the worst case scenario and I concede, @yaxomoxay was right about this. This scenario is pure insanity and i have a difficult time seeing a geopolitical scenario where this doesn’t spiral into a 3rd world war. The only quesTion is whether that will emanate from this conflict directly, or the insane arms race of the coming years.

I truly hope that somehow you and I meet one day and have a beer reminiscing how we thought this was going to be WW3 but ended up being just a limited event.

I don’t see how an arms race can be avoided at this point. I’d keep an eye on Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) as they are not going to trust us anymore.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

I see more toothless sanctions incoming…

From the FT:
World leaders divided on whether to eject Russia from Swift payment system
"Boris Johnson, UK prime minister, is pushing “very hard” for Russia to be ejected from the Swift international payments system, a move that would deliver a heavy blow to the country’s banks and its ability to trade beyond its borders.

However, Olaf Scholz, German chancellor, warned Johnson on Thursday that his country would not support such a dramatic move and neither would the EU, according to officials close to sanctions negotiations. A German official declined to comment, saying only that “all options are still on the table”.

For now, the UK strikes me as a somewhat tainted source (even though the FT is usually excellent).

Firstly, were the utterly feeble sanctions proposed earier this week in the House of Commons (Brussels did better, but needs to do much more), and secondly, is the closeness of the appalling embrace between Russian oligarchic donors and the Tory party, and thirdly, is the laundromat role played by the City of London re dodgy Russian monies.

In other words, I'm saying that the Brits are not the most credible sources on this; unless and until he feels his own survival threatened, - or events over-take him, and there is a growing groundswell of support for such steps - as seems to be happening - Mr Johnson will not take strong action on Russia.

 

[Deleted member 215]

There’s not going to be a Third World War because we’re not going to respond to this. Ukraine will just become another province of Russia like Crimea did. Like, maybe there should be a wider war, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. Russia will likely achieve its goal of installing a pro-Russian government in Kiev and “de-militarizing” the country and the response from the West won’t go further than sanctions. It’s the fear of world war that’s preventing a military response.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

There’s not going to be a Third World War because we’re not going to respond to this. Ukraine will just become another province of Russia like Crimea did. Like, maybe there should be a wider war, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. Russia will likely achieve its goal of installing a pro-Russian government in Kiev and “de-militarizing” the country.

Good luck to them attempting to hold the west of Ukraine, not necessarily militarily, but, most certainly, socially, culturally amd psychologically; they will find that an indigestible and permanently troublesome morsel, akin to the role Poland played within the wider Warsaw Pact during the years of the Cold War.

While I have long thought - and said, and written, and believed - that "Russia will go to the wire on Ukraine in a way it would not for anywhere else in te post Soviet space", I confess that even I did not - ever, entertain - or envisage the idea a full scale invasion.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Good luck to them attempting to hold the west of Ukraine, not necessarily militarily, but, most certainly, socially, culturally amd psychologically; they will find that an indigestible and permanently troublesome morsel, akin to the role Poland played within the wider Warsaw Pact during the years of the Cold War.

I don’t think Putin wants to hold Ukraine by military means. I can see him “restoring freedom” by installing a puppet government (backed by Russian forces) or even worse separating Ukraine into multiple pieces.

 

[yaxomoxay]

The WSJ is reporting that the sanctions on Russian banks apply only to debt and deals after March 2, 2022. If this is true, no shit that Putin doesn’t fear the sanctions.

 

[User.45]

I truly hope that somehow you and I meet one day and have a beer reminiscing how we thought this was going to be WW3 but ended up being just a limited event.

I don’t see how an arms race can be avoided at this point. I’d keep an eye on Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) as they are not going to trust us anymore.

I don’t see humanity unfucking itself, COVID on its own was a good rehearsal for what to expect with climate change creeping into our day-to-day lives. Now all the attention and resources we need to fix climate will be siphoned to military shit.

It’s interesting to see Orban and Erdogan both condem the Russian actions. Brazil advocates for military intervention. No matter what NATO is doing now, the (new and old) russian borders will be hypermilitarized sitting on a keg of gunpowder. Statistically, it’s many fold more likely that this shit will explode than it would not.

 

[Arkitect]

For now, the UK strikes me as a somewhat tainted source (even though the FT is usually excellent).

Firstly, were the utterly feeble sanctions proposed earier this week in the House of Commons (Brussels did better, but needs to do much more), and secondly, is the closeness of the appalling embrace between Russian oligarchic donors and the Tory party, and thirdly, is the laundromat role played by the City of London re dodgy Russian monies.

In other words, I'm saying that the Brits are not the most credible sources on this; unless and until he feels his own survival threatened, - or events over-take him, and there is a growing groundswell of support for such steps - as seems to be happening - Mr Johnson will not take strong action on Russia.

Oh I agree!

Boris Johnson is the last person I want to have in charge… But he is what we poor Brits have.

However, the reaction from other countries speaks volumes as to how far they are prepared to go. Not very far…
I also suspect Pfeffel knows no one else will follow his lead on this issue and so he can safely say to his Tory backbenchers: "See! I tried! But the dastardly German/French… whatever didn't back us up."

Remember, with Tories it is ALWAYS about party politics.

 

[User.45]

There’s not going to be a Third World War because we’re not going to respond to this. Ukraine will just become another province of Russia like Crimea did. Like, maybe there should be a wider war, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. Russia will likely achieve its goal of installing a pro-Russian government in Kiev and “de-militarizing” the country and the response from the West won’t go further than sanctions. It’s the fear of world war that’s preventing a military response.

And when did a bully stop taking other kids’ lunch money after they learned how easily they can get away with it.

 

[shadow puppet]

What a disturbing turn of events this morning has been.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1496895929688858642/