Russia-Ukraine

[leman]

If Russia is observed committing war crimes, does that mean that western countries could intervene?

They have been committing war crimes from the very start. Using vehicles marked with OSCE symbols to cover their forces. Infiltration using stolen uniforms. Misrule attacks on civil population. Attempts to assassinate government officials (groups of infiltrators were arrested who were carrying kill lists with names and addresses).

 

[shadow puppet]

If Russia is observed committing war crimes, does that mean that western countries could intervene?

This guy, a former White House staffer who's usually accurate on his take (still privy to a good amount of inside intel), feels NATO would get involved.

 

[User.45]

These are indeed grim news and some of the most awful weapons invented. I though those were primarily used to clear out fortified bunkers? Using them in a city would have horrifying consequences…

That unfortunately would be a logical progression and a way to win despite the low morale. However, that would further lower morale. Again, I think Putin really fucked this one up.

 

[User.45]

The courage and resistance is just goddam amazing. I know there was a request to not deviate into US politics, but what the Ukrainian people are doing vs. the baby-fits of anti-maskers is such a stunning dichotomy, it has to be mentioned.

The contrast is certainly quite stark...:

Even as the artillery barrages intensified, not everyone was ready to hide. Walking with intention toward the source of the artillery booms on the outskirts of Kharkiv was Roman Balakelyev, dressed in camouflage, a double-barreled shotgun slung over his shoulder.

“I live here, this is my home. I’m going to defend it,” said Mr. Balakelyev, who also pulled out a large knife he had strapped to his back as if to show it off. “I don’t think the Russians understand me like I understand them.”

A short while later, Mr. Balakelyev reached the edge of the city, where the Ukrainian troops were huddled around the abandoned Russian troop transports. They watched as he passed. No one moved to stop him. One soldier uttered: “Intent on victory.”

Mr. Balakelyev, his gaze fixed and his shotgun ready, headed down the road in the direction of the booms and a tall billboard that read: “Protect the future: UKRAINE-NATO-EUROPE.”

 

[Scepticalscribe]

I had to look up what thermobaric bombs were. They don't sound good.

As the author of this tweet explained:

"Thermobaric bombs are known as vacuum bombs. They suck oxygen into the blast and can cause awful internal injuries, especially to the lungs."

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1497338480061526018/

As did I.

However, the more such (evil, a word I do not use lightly) threats are employed, the less likely - even to a credulous Russian audience (and the response of some Russians has been nothing short of magnificent) - that one can persuade Ukrainians (our Slavic brethren) of any justification for this.

By the way - and @yaxomoxay might share my curiosity on this matter (I wrote a paper for Brussels on the history, theology and splits of the various Orthodox Churches in Ukraine - there are a few - and Georgia, & Russia and their influence, past and present on matters of identity, and on which of them are answerable to - or subordinate to - issues of autonomy, so-called "autocephalous status" (and independence) loom large here - some of the others, and why, when I served with the EU mission in Georgia over a decade ago), I'd love to hear what the Russian Orthodox Church (which derives its legitimacy from its links - historic and theological - with Ukraine) thinks of all this, not least as one of the main historic roles of the Russian Orthodox Church has been to serve as a theological support for the most egregious expressions of Russian nationalism (and autocracy, and Orthodoxy).

It is increasingly clear that the Russians (or, Mr Putin, to be more precise) did not expect the Ukrainians to resist so strenuously; that is what comes from cultivating a court of terrified sycophants.

That unfortunately would be a logical progression and a way to win despite the low morale. However, that would further lower morale. Again, I think Putin really fucked this one up.

Agreed.

It seems that Mr Putin thought that the Ukrainians would curl up and roll over.

Has anyone taken a look at - or, rather, a listen to - the stunning clip from the extraordinary defenders of Snake Island when threatened by a Russian warship earlier today?

Wow.

 

[leman]

That unfortunately would be a logical progression and a way to win despite the low morale. However, that would further lower morale. Again, I think Putin really fucked this one up.

The thing is, Russians call Kyiv the “mother of all Russian cities”, it is the cradle of the eastern Slav civilization. It feels that trying to burn that city in the name of liberating it would be too much even for Putin.

 

[yaxomoxay]

As did I.

However, the more such (evil, a word I do not use lightly) threats are employed, the less likely - even to a credulous Russian audience (and the response of some Russians has been nothing short of magnificent) - that one can persuade Ukrainians (our Slavic brethren) of any justification for this.

By the way - and @yaxomoxay might share my curiosity on this matter (I wrote a paper for Brussels on the history, theology and splits of the various Orthodox Churches in Ukraine - there a re a few - and Georgia, & Russia and their influence, past and present on matters of identity, when I was deployed with the EU mission in Georgia), I'd love to hear what the Russian Orthodox Church (which derives its legitimacy from its links - historic and theological - with Ukraine) thinks of al this, not least as one of the main historic roles of the Russian Orthodox Church has been to serve as a theological support for the most egregious expressions of Russia nationalism (and autocracy, ad Orthodoxy).

It is increasingly clear that the Russians (or, Mr Putin, to be more precise) did not expect the Ukrainians to resist so strenuously; that is what comes from cultivating a court of terrified sycophants.

Agreed.

It seems that Mr Putin thought that the Ukrainians would curl up and roll over.

Has anyone taken a look at - or, rather, a listen to - the stunning clip from the extraordinary defenders of Snake Island when threatened by a Russian warship earlier today?

Wow.

I do share you curiosity about the Russian Orthodox Church as they are strangely very quiet.

I can tell you, as a matter of pure curiosity, that there are rumors that the Vatican will make the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church a patriarchate which would make the Ukrainian eastern church a sui iuris church, obtaining the highest “level” (wrong term but you get the meaning) an eastern rite church could obtain. As far as I know the request has been made last week and the Vatican is seriously considering it. It might not be much of a practical “war” gesture, but if it happens the symbolic meaning will not escape Eastern Christians. It will - and this is my evaluation - probably infuriate the Russian Orthodox Church.

 

[User.45]

Has anyone taken a look at - or, rather, a listen to - the stunning clip from the extraordinary defenders of Snake Island when threatened by a Russian warship earlier today?

Wow.

Oh yes. It's a weird feeling, but I feel incredibly proud of these young men.

The thing is, Russians call Kyiv the “mother of all Russian cities”, it is the cradle of the eastern Slav civilization. It feels that trying to burn that city in the name of liberating it would be too much even for Putin.

All I can say, I expected this invasion to not happen based on logic. Still nobody can identify a clear logical endgame.
I rolled my eye a little about an editorial claiming that Putin's main weakness is that he needs to look strong all the time. I shouldn't have. It's like a bar fight you threaten bystanders to not get involved, but your threats immediately lose their oomph when you can't knock out the smallest guy in the bar.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Oh, and for an example of polite, yet serious (and hard-hitting) public service broadcasting, take a look at David McCullagh's (who is a fine historian and impressive broadcaster) interview - on RTÉ (Irish state broadcasting) this evening with the Russian Ambassador to Ireland, Mr Yuriy Filatov.

Impressive.

 

[lizkat]

I had to look up what thermobaric bombs were. They don't sound good.

As the author of this tweet explained:

"Thermobaric bombs are known as vacuum bombs. They suck oxygen into the blast and can cause awful internal injuries, especially to the lungs."

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1497338480061526018/

These are indeed grim news and some of the most awful weapons invented. I though those were primarily used to clear out fortified bunkers? Using them in a city would have horrifying consequences…

That unfortunately would be a logical progression and a way to win despite the low morale. However, that would further lower morale. Again, I think Putin really fucked this one up.

Putin's running off a script that has played well in his head, but actors on the other side as he brings his play to the world stage have completely gone up on their lines and roles: not laying down arms, even blowing up their own bridges, old ladies and children mouthing off and fighting back. Who's Putin going to blame for this train wreck? All those "yassah, boss, go for it" sycophants in his televised ministers' meeting the other day? Those are the guys that melt away when the cards don't play out as expected. Suddenly they hear a different dinner bell...

I don't think the Russians are stupid enough to use thermobaric bombs in Kyiv. Or maybe I just hope Putin is smarter than that. He's not suicidal, and it's not like he can't be found later if he orders such a monstrous act. He purchases loyalty and those who have been bought once to shield and defend him can be bought again to turn him in. It's too risky. He's a guy who likes to enjoy himself, so he's not likely sure he'd have the guts to kill himself before being rounded up and hauled off to The Hague. He wants to convert Ukraine into a puppet state, not lay waste to civilians at risk of his own hide.

 

[Huntn]

Ukraine hasn't been admitted to NATO yet from what I have read and understand is they haven't met all the conditions.

1. a European nation must demonstrate a commitment to democracy, individual liberty and support for the rule of law

Ukraine ranks 117 out of 180 countries in terms of corruption and would be the lowest member according to this index.

2. contributing to the collective defense of NATO nations.

Ukraine military until very recently wasn't all that great in terms of capability. It's why the current situation isn't turning out to be like Crimea in 2014. They are more capable today than in 2014. Though still dealing with a lot of old equipment.

3. Must be anonymous for acceptance. The obvious criteria that hasn't been met. European countries like Germany aren't sure if they should pull that trigger by bringing NATO onto Russia's border.

NATO Won’t Let Ukraine Join Soon. Here’s Why. (Published 2022)

Ukraine has pressed for membership to defend against Russia. But President Biden and European leaders are not ready for that step.

www.nytimes.com

Thanks, I appreciate it. Corruption could have been a real issue. As far as contributing to collective defense, their strategic position on the map should have been a plus, as a buffer, unless NATO considered this a liability.

 

[Huntn]

I'm certainly not making light of the horrific situation, but this is apparently a thing

View attachment 11971

What does it say?

 

[Huntn]

This scenario makes two major assumptions:
1. Putin who was insane enough to start the invasion is going to switch back to rational on the instant
2. Putin can afford the hit his strongman reputation took if Zelensky stayed in power.

The narrative switch this would take also gives me whiplash. So the "nazis" who committed "genocide" against Russians suddenly become acceptable genocidal nazis?

I heard several times today the questioning about the rationality of Putin, that what he’s doing is not in the best long term interests of Russia, hence questions about his mental state.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

I do share you curiosity about the Russian Orthodox Church as they are strangely very quiet.

I can tell you, as a matter of pure curiosity, that there are rumors that the Vatican will make the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church a patriarchate which would make the Ukrainian eastern church a sui iuris church, obtaining the highest “level” (wrong term but you get the meaning) an eastern rite church could obtain. As far as I know the request has been made last week and the Vatican is seriously considering it. It might not be much of a practical “war” gesture, but if it happens the symbolic meaning will not escape Eastern Christians. It will - and this is my evaluation - probably infuriate the Russian Orthodox Church.

Fascinating.

Absolutely fascinating.

I'd love to see this happen.

My interest in this was piqued by a small (tiny) footnote to a report which I read - I still remember sitting, stunned, at my desk in my office in the EU HQ, which was next door to Lavrenti Beria's villa, when I read this - which had reported - as a foot-noted aside - that the Patriarchate in Moscow (Moscow!) had turned down a request by the Orthodox churches in South Ossetia and Abkhazia to transfer their theological loyalty to Moscow rather than Tbilisi.

Reading that, I was absolutely fascinated - normally the Russian Orthodox Church and the Russian state (ever since the time of the Tsars) have had a disgustingly symbiotic relationship - so why - on this occasion - was the (Moscow Patriarchate) church taking a different stance to that promoted by the Russian government - and I thought this merited further examination and exploration, and asked to be allowed spend some time thinking about, researching, analysing - and writing about - this.

While my superiors were a bit puzzled - I was supposed to spend my time editing (I was one of the few native English speakers on the staff) reports, and analysing current political stuff and current breaches (among other things) of the Sarkozy-Medvedev agreement - they were surprisingly tolerant of my desire to take a flying leap into Orthodox Church history and re-visit the theology of the early middle ages, around a thousand years earlier.

Anyway, I found it an extraordinarily instructive, illuminating - (and, to my surprise, my superiors insisted on sending what I wrote to Brussels - I had merely intended to make them aware of stuff I thought they should know - whereupon Brussels made clear that they "liked" - to use a modern term - my report) exercise, and a very useful one as well.

So, the (deafening) silence of the Moscow Patriarchy on current events (especially when informed by their past history) is......to put it mildly, rather telling.

 

[lizkat]

Oh, and for an example of polite, yet serious (and hard-hitting) public service broadcasting, take a look at David McCullagh's (who is a fine historian and impressive broadcaster) interview - on RTÉ (Irish state broadcasting) this evening with the Russian Ambassador to Ireland, Mr Yuriy Filatov.

Impressive.

Thank you for that info. I also appreciated what the Irish representative to the UN, Geraldine Byrne Nason, had to say the other night at the security council meeting. Like some of that evening's other speakers whose nations are temporary members of the Security Council and have experienced oppression and war, the ambassador was eloquent on the need to stand by Ukraine rather than simply acquiesce to this blatant aggression by Putin.

"This is the second time in less than ten years that the Russian Federation has violated Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. It is a flagrant violation of international law.​

​

In taking this unilateral step, Russia has abandoned the Minsk Agreements and cast into doubt all the diplomatic efforts of past weeks.​

​

Ireland commends Ukraine for the restraint it has shown in the face of Russia’s military build-up at its border and the provocation of the recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.”​

 

[shadow puppet]

I don't think the Russians are stupid enough to use thermobaric bombs in Kyiv. Or maybe I just hope Putin is smarter than that. He's not suicidal, and it's not like he can't be found later if he orders such a monstrous act. He purchases loyalty and those who have been bought once to shield and defend him can be bought again to turn him in. It's too risky. He's a guy who likes to enjoy himself, so he's not likely sure he'd have the guts to kill himself before being rounded up and hauled off to The Hague. He wants to convert Ukraine into a puppet state, not lay waste to civilians at risk of his own hide.

I hope, with everything in me, you are correct in your assumption.

Seeing this photo of a bomb shelter below a kindergarten in central Ukraine has been haunting me ever since laying eyes on it. I get it. I grasp this is a precautionary preemptive. But it still sickens me no end.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1497271775083782145/

 

[shadow puppet]

What does it say?

The gist of it below:

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1497331353301528589/

 

[lizkat]

The gist of it below:

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1497331353301528589/

Heh, some creative resistance out there already.

 

[Pumbaa]

What does it say?

Nothing interesting, I think.

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1497284271232458755/

 

[User.45]

While I certainly can’t dispute or confirm Mr Putin’s health condition, I am getting increasingly frustrated about this issue (not you telling us, of course).

there’s this journalistic fetish about leaders being sick and this is sometimes used to justify the “it’s a crazy decision” position, bringing it down to a personal level instead of the geopolitical. Trump is sick. Biden is sick. Putin is sick. Draghi is sick. Pope Francis is sick. Holy shit.

Again, not attacking you for reporting your personal experience. I personally heard the Pope Francis one before it hit the newspapers months ago by not one, not two, but three people in his inner circle. Didn’t take them too seriously because the Vatican has more gossip than the National Enquirer.

Funny you brought up a pope. Do you remember John Paul 2 whose Parkinson's diagnosis was hidden for 12 years? There are just diseases that have linear paths (and most cancers isn't one of those). While I agree that rumors have to be treated like rumors, the thing about leaders with authoritarian tendencies (including Trump) are way more likely to make decisions motivated by personal stuff than those with less authoritarian styles. That's actually one of the key weaknesses of authoritarianism. Not everything makes geopolitical sense.

BTW, Trump probably has MCI compounded by whatever psychiatric condition he has I'm not qualified to diagnose. In fact if it weren't for the "bleach moment" that was purely driven by his psychopathology, he'd still be president. So let's not minimize the conditions leaders may have that impact their ability to lead.