Russia-Ukraine

[Agent47]

You should show her this: retired citizens of eastern Ukraine are preparing molotovs to meet the “anti-terrorist liberators”

I kinda tried. However, she dismissed this as untrue, coz her relatives in the Ukraine told her they were happy the Russians came to their rescue. My take: she made this up in order not to have her belief system collapse

 

[DT]

You should show her this: retired citizens of eastern Ukraine are preparing molotovs to meet the “anti-terrorist liberators”

The courage and resistance is just goddam amazing. I know there was a request to not deviate into US politics, but what the Ukrainian people are doing vs. the baby-fits of anti-maskers is such a stunning dichotomy, it has to be mentioned.

 

[yaxomoxay]

From what I understand is it is a long drawn out process and there is no way it could be kept under wraps.

Then I wonder if this is Putin’s play then. Our friend @Scepticalscribe is right that keeping west Ukraine might be difficult for Russia. I wonder if Putin will meet with Zelensky (or respective representatives) for a treaty of this kind:
1) Ukraine will agree to not join NATO
2) Ukraine will agree to not have NATO or EU/American bases on its soil
3) Ukraine will agree that the two “separatist” regions are recognized as independent.
4) A few military concessions.

In exchange for Ukraine’s government to remain in power.

 

[Renzatic]

I'm certainly not making light of the horrific situation, but this is apparently a thing

View attachment 11971

...oh shit. I think I hit my head harder than I thought.

 

[User.45]

Then I wonder if this is Putin’s play then. Our friend @Scepticalscribe is right that keeping west Ukraine might be difficult for Russia. I wonder if Putin will meet with Zelensky (or respective representatives) for a treaty of this kind:
1) Ukraine will agree to not join NATO
2) Ukraine will agree to not have NATO or EU/American bases on its soil
3) Ukraine will agree that the two “separatist” regions are recognized as independent.
4) A few military concessions.

In exchange for Ukraine’s government to remain in power.

This scenario makes two major assumptions:
1. Putin who was insane enough to start the invasion is going to switch back to rational on the instant
2. Putin can afford the hit his strongman reputation took if Zelensky stayed in power.

The narrative switch this would take also gives me whiplash. So the "nazis" who committed "genocide" against Russians suddenly become acceptable genocidal nazis?

 

[yaxomoxay]

This scenario makes two major assumptions:
1. Putin who was insane enough to start the invasion is going to switch back to rational on the instant
2. Putin can afford the hit his strongman reputation took if Zelensky stayed in power.

The narrative switch this would take also gives me whiplash. So the "nazis" who committed "genocide" against Russians suddenly become acceptable genocidal nazis?

A flip flop by Putin wouldn’t shock me, but yours are great points. Maybe he’ll be able to work out the above points with a different Ukrainian government.

 

[User.45]

A flip flop by Putin wouldn’t shock me, but yours are great points. Maybe he’ll be able to work out the above points with a different Ukrainian government.

Yes, I cannot see a scenario where Zelensky staying in power isn't the equivalent of Putin losing.
This is why it's so important to see Zelenskys main political rival in arms against the Russian forces.

The more I think about this the more I think Putin really really miscalculated here.

 

[quagmire]

The more who join NATO the better, if they are real assets to the alliance and should be fast tracked. I’ve spent a minimal amount of time, but have searched for articles about why Ukraine is not a NATO member and I’ve not really found a precise reason or set of reasons. Your opinion? Apologies if you have already said. If so, maybe you could point me at it.

When I look at this list and see all the former satellites that broke away from Russia and joined NATO, I wonder was Ukraine just to close (however you want to define close) to Mother Russia?

List of NATO Member States | NATO Members 2022

At present, NATO Member States comprises 30 countries from the original 12 countries that signed the North Atlantic Treaty on 4 April 1949. Check the complete NATO countries list below.

www.jagranjosh.com

Ukraine hasn't been admitted to NATO yet from what I have read and understand is they haven't met all the conditions.

1. a European nation must demonstrate a commitment to democracy, individual liberty and support for the rule of law

Ukraine ranks 117 out of 180 countries in terms of corruption and would be the lowest member according to this index.

2. contributing to the collective defense of NATO nations.

Ukraine military until very recently wasn't all that great in terms of capability. It's why the current situation isn't turning out to be like Crimea in 2014. They are more capable today than in 2014. Though still dealing with a lot of old equipment.

3. Must be anonymous for acceptance. The obvious criteria that hasn't been met. European countries like Germany aren't sure if they should pull that trigger by bringing NATO onto Russia's border.

NATO Won’t Let Ukraine Join Soon. Here’s Why. (Published 2022)

Ukraine has pressed for membership to defend against Russia. But President Biden and European leaders are not ready for that step.

www.nytimes.com

 

[JayMysteri0]

A flip flop by Putin wouldn’t shock me, but yours are great points. Maybe he’ll be able to work out the above points with a different Ukrainian government.

That's been the consistent belief.

Main goals:

Get Zelensky & his family, those who organized the Maidan Revolution, and install a new puppet regime to replace the imagery of the fleeing Yanukovych.

 

[User.45]

Ukraine hasn't been admitted to NATO yet from what I have read and understand is they haven't met all the conditions.

1. a European nation must demonstrate a commitment to democracy, individual liberty and support for the rule of law

Ukraine ranks 117 out of 180 countries in terms of corruption and would be the lowest member according to this index.

2. contributing to the collective defense of NATO nations.

Ukraine military until very recently wasn't all that great in terms of capability. It's why the current situation isn't turning out to be like Crimea in 2014. They are more capable today than in 2014. Though still dealing with a lot of old equipment.

3. Must be anonymous for acceptance. The obvious criteria that hasn't been met. European countries like Germany aren't sure if they should pull that trigger by bringing NATO onto Russia's border.

NATO Won’t Let Ukraine Join Soon. Here’s Why. (Published 2022)

Ukraine has pressed for membership to defend against Russia. But President Biden and European leaders are not ready for that step.

www.nytimes.com

Finland and Sweden's membership is a much more interesting question. If half of Putin's forces are tied down in Ukraine, he has to start launching ballistic missiles to live up to his threats. And again, as someone else said it, if someone points their gun at you and tells you they'll shoot if you arm yourself, you might as well arm yourself. No better time to do it while someone else is being shot at.

 

[quagmire]

Finland and Sweden's membership is a much more interesting question. If half of Putin's forces are tied down in Ukraine, he has to start launching ballistic missiles to live up to his threats. And again, as someone else said it, if someone points their gun at you and tells you they'll shoot if you arm yourself, you might as well arm yourself. No better time to do it while someone else is being shot at.

If Putin went after Finland and Sweden due to wanting to join NATO, I could see military intervention from the US and EU on the table. The political will to defend Ukraine isn't there, but probably is for Sweden and Finland.*

* This wouldn't be a NATO activation, but just the EU and US joint action.

 

[Macky-Mac]

Yes, I cannot see a scenario where Zelensky staying in power isn't the equivalent of Putin losing.
This is why it's so important to see Zelenskys main political rival in arms against the Russian forces.

The more I think about this the more I think Putin really really miscalculated here.

Zelensky staying in office would definitely be difficult for Putin to accept. From various reports, I've read that Putin's urged the Ukrainian military to....“Take power into your own hands, it will be easier for us to reach agreement”.

As for miscalculations, I suppose Putin thought that simply having the vast Russian military build up along the border would be enough to get acceptance of his demands

Edit;
instead of preventing NATO expansion, Putin's actions may well lead to a dramatically increased NATO presence along Russia's borders.....exactly the opposite of what he supposedly is trying to prevent

 

[leman]

I kinda tried. However, she dismissed this as untrue, coz her relatives in the Ukraine told her they were happy the Russians came to their rescue. My take: she made this up in order not to have her belief system collapse

That is true. There indeed are people in Ukraine - especially in the eastern regions - who hate the country and identify with old Soviet regime and by extension Russia. The Soviet propaganda machine still works.

The courage and resistance is just goddam amazing. I know there was a request to not deviate into US politics, but what the Ukrainian people are doing vs. the baby-fits of anti-maskers is such a stunning dichotomy, it has to be mentioned.

I know, I was never more proud of my country. It’s exactly in such moment of crisis where we tend to exceed expectations. Also, gonna love these people

Translation from Ukrainian (sorry for profanities, trying to be exact): “Fucktards, fuck off out of Ukraine and our village! Signed: Granny Nadya“

 

[User.45]

If Putin went after Finland and Sweden due to wanting to join NATO, I could see military intervention from the US and EU on the table. The political will to defend Ukraine isn't there, but probably is for Sweden and Finland.*

* This wouldn't be a NATO activation, but just the EU and US joint action.

Russia would have to wrap up Ukraine and redistribute its forces. And attacking finland or swe would be even more egregious act of aggression so they'd alienate themselves from the world even more, etc. Putin got himself in a situation where his chances of major victories are decreasing by the day, and his chances of geopolitical losses are increasing by the day.

Russia is now damaged goods internationally. His citizens are pissed. He'll spend a ton of money on the war and after this many threats he either loses face by not acting up on them, or risk another conflict he would lose. So Putin would lose either way, the only question would be just whether nukes would be used or not.

Zelensky staying in office would definitely be difficult for Putin to accept. From various reports, I've read that Putin's urged the Ukrainian military to....“Take power into your own hands, it will be easier for us to reach agreement”.

As for miscalculations, I suppose Putin thought that simply having the vast Russian military build up along the border would be enough to get acceptance of his demands

Edit;
instead of preventing NATO expansion, Putin's actions may well lead to a dramatically increased NATO presence along Russia's borders.....exactly the opposite of what he supposedly is trying to prevent

Exactly. Also, prior conflicts he entered with the support of a troll army second to none. His trolls are nowhere this time around. I'm still amazed.

 

[User.45]

That is true. There indeed are people in Ukraine - especially in the eastern regions - who hate the country and identify with old Soviet regime and by extension Russia. The Soviet propaganda machine still works.


I know, I was never more proud of my country. It’s exactly in such moment of crisis where we tend to exceed expectations. Also, gonna love these people

View attachment 11973

Translation from Ukrainian (sorry for profanities, trying to be exact): “Fucktards, fuck off out of Ukraine and our village! Signed: Granny Nadya“

Who would mess with Granny Nadya?

(just imagine you enter a nation you share roots with and those "nazis" welcome you with this. I think it's one of those, Are we the baddies? moments)

 

[shadow puppet]

I had to look up what thermobaric bombs were. They don't sound good.

As the author of this tweet explained:

"Thermobaric bombs are known as vacuum bombs. They suck oxygen into the blast and can cause awful internal injuries, especially to the lungs."

https://www.Twitter or X not allowed/i/web/status/1497338480061526018/

 

[SuperMatt]

And true to form, Trump continued his praise of Putin saying at a Mar-a-Lago fundraiser that he was "pretty smart" in "taking over a country for $2 worth of sanctions." Also, that this wouldn't have happened if the 2020 election wasn't rigged, etc. etc.

It's ironic to hear Republicans attacking Biden for being weak vs. Russia when for four years they were silent as Trump never said one word of criticism of Putin and clearly admired him.

And they refused to remove him from office for blackmailing the Ukrainian president by withholding defensive weapons in exchange for dirt on Hunter Biden. That was never a good look, but especially now...

 

[SuperMatt]

I had to look up what thermobaric bombs were. They don't sound good.

As the author of this tweet explained:

"Thermobaric bombs are known as vacuum bombs. They suck oxygen into the blast and can cause awful internal injuries, especially to the lungs."

https://www.Twitter or X not allowed/i/web/status/1497338480061526018/

If Russia is observed committing war crimes, does that mean that western countries could intervene?

 

[leman]

And the probably weirdest news of the day: no idea if true, but there are videos that partly corroborate the story. Anyway, here it goes: it has been reported that a juvenile gang (!!) has hijacked an armored vehicle if a Russian infiltration unit who got lost in Kyiv earlier this morning. The boys got interested in the cool-looking tank and went to have a look, Russians grabbed their machine guns and were promptly hit in the head with pavement stones

 

[leman]

I had to look up what thermobaric bombs were. They don't sound good.

As the author of this tweet explained:

"Thermobaric bombs are known as vacuum bombs. They suck oxygen into the blast and can cause awful internal injuries, especially to the lungs."

https://www.Twitter or X not allowed/i/web/status/1497338480061526018/

These are indeed grim news and some of the most awful weapons invented. I though those were primarily used to clear out fortified bunkers? Using them in a city would have horrifying consequences…