Russia-Ukraine

[SuperMatt]

I think Democrats are misguided if they think this is going to be seen as popular just because Trump was seen as a Putin puppet. Not to mention the corpse of our 20 year failure in Afghanistan is still warm. Nobody wants us involved in another major conflict, well, except clinical psychopaths of which I am sure there are many in and involved with our military.

This is not what’s happening.

Biden is being raked over the coals by folks from the right-wing American Enterprise Institute for NOT sending tons of troops into Ukraine. They call it weakness.

I’d also like to point out that the same folks calling him too weak now, were calling him too aggressive when he was pressuring Germany to stop Nordstream 2 in order to slow Putin down. No surprise, these warmongers were working for Bush when we charged into Afghanistan and Iraq.

Look up Kori Schake if you want to see the kind of things being tossed about.

Biden is handling a bad situation in a good way. He is working to pull NATO together. Putin was hoping for the opposite. If Trump was still in power, and something like this happened, he would probably have torn NATO apart by now and Putin would win big. By putting troops in nearby NATO countries, Biden is saying “we’ve got your back” and he’s also gotten the Germans to have Nordstream 2 cancellation as a possibility, which is something they were STRONGLY against up until just a few weeks ago.

 

[SuperMatt]

I’m not saying Trump is to blame for this, but it’s a shame Biden will be tasked with dealing with and being blamed for all of this, while the people accusing him are too tone deaf, dumb or devoted to understand how Trump’s weak presidency and embrace of lies and misinformation emboldened this kind of behavior by Putin.

Trump got impeached for withholding defensive weapons from Ukraine unless they did what he wanted. Who knows what other shenanigans he was involved in! I think it was a major contributor to the current situation, not to mention how he attacked our NATO allies constantly…

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

This is not what’s happening.

Biden is being raked over the coals by folks from the right-wing American Enterprise Institute for NOT sending tons of troops into Ukraine. They call it weakness.

I’d also like to point out that the same folks calling him too weak now, were calling him too aggressive when he was pressuring Germany to stop Nordstream 2 in order to slow Putin down. No surprise, these warmongers were working for Bush when we charged into Afghanistan and Iraq.

Look up Kori Schake if you want to see the kind of things being tossed about.

Biden is handling a bad situation in a good way. He is working to pull NATO together. Putin was hoping for the opposite. If Trump was still in power, and something like this happened, he would probably have torn NATO apart by now and Putin would win big. By putting troops in nearby NATO countries, Biden is saying “we’ve got your back” and he’s also gotten the Germans to have Nordstream 2 cancellation as a possibility, which is something they were STRONGLY against up until just a few weeks ago.

In my mind a lot of this depends on believing the military's narrative which I don't know why anybody would at this point. Iraq has weapons of mass destruction and Assad is gassing his own people anyone? We pretty much bailed on Venezuela as soon as the US intelligence's multiple false flag and narratives were exposed.

This is a civil war with both sides not holding up to their end of the deal on the bargain. A good pertage of the population either wants to be closely tied to Russia or part of it, but the way the US media is covering it you'd think Russia is just going to invade and take over against everybody's will.

I have no love for Putin but this is clearly a resurrection of the cold war where many innocent civilians will die while most of us will sit at home comfortably safe waiving our ideology victory flags.

I agree Biden is in a tough spot based on rhetoric more than reality, but no matter what he does it won't change anybody's mind. I'd prefer we'd play way more of an advisory role and remove Europe's training wheels on conflict. They've certainly supported and learned enough from us. Its time for them to fly.

 

[Eric]

Trump got impeached for withholding defensive weapons from Ukraine unless they did what he wanted. Who knows what other shenanigans he was involved in! I think it was a major contributor to the current situation, not to mention how he attacked our NATO allies constantly…

If Trump were in power he would be siding with Putin, thank God that maniac is gone.

 

[SuperMatt]

This is a civil war with both sides not holding up to their end of the deal on the bargain. A good pertage of the population either wants to be closely tied to Russia or part of it, but the way the US media is covering it you'd think Russia is just going to invade and take over against everybody's will.

This sounds like it’s coming from some Russian propaganda source. This is NOT a civil war. It is an invasion of a sovereign country by Russia. Period. Just because some people (a minority) in Ukraine want it to happen is NOT justification for it.

Excusing their actions based on this would be like excusing Mexico invading Texas just because there are a lot of people of Mexican heritage living there.

Here’s another take on the situation from somebody with a bit more knowledge: The former US ambassador to Ukraine.

Understanding the Russia-Ukraine crisis

As Russia increases its military presence along the Ukrainian border, Stanford scholar Steven Pifer discusses what Russia hopes to achieve and why its policies toward Ukraine are backfiring.

news.stanford.edu

 

[Thomas Veil]

Well, this looks to be it, folks…

The U.S. suspended consular services in the Ukrainian capital and ordered most embassy staff to depart after warning that a Russian military invasion could happen at any moment. Moscow also began withdrawing its diplomatic presence in Ukraine.

My bold.

Biden Warns Putin of ‘Swift and Severe Costs’ of Invading Ukraine — The Wall Street Journal

Two leaders’ phone discussion yields ‘no fundamental change,’ U.S. official says, as both U.S. and Russia pull diplomatic staff out of Ukraine

apple.news

 

[MarkusL]

Biden is handling a bad situation in a good way. He is working to pull NATO together. Putin was hoping for the opposite. If Trump was still in power, and something like this happened, he would probably have torn NATO apart by now and Putin would win big. By putting troops in nearby NATO countries, Biden is saying “we’ve got your back” and he’s also gotten the Germans to have Nordstream 2 cancellation as a possibility, which is something they were STRONGLY against up until just a few weeks ago.

Nordstream 2 should have been cancelled a decade ago. It was designed to allow Russia to pressure its neighbors while still maintaining a cash flow from Germany. Now the pipeline is completed and the Germans are pretending to be surprised that Putin is using it for its intended purpose.

 

[SuperMatt]

Nordstream 2 should have been cancelled a decade ago. It was designed to allow Russia to pressure its neighbors while still maintaining a cash flow from Germany. Now the pipeline is completed and the Germans are pretending to be surprised that Putin is using it for its intended purpose.

Germans and Russians working together… what could go wrong?

 

[MarkusL]

Germans and Russians working together… what could go wrong?

Yeah, I was initially shy about mentioning Molotov and Ribbentrop, but now that you alluded to it...

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Nordstream 2 should have been cancelled a decade ago. It was designed to allow Russia to pressure its neighbors while still maintaining a cash flow from Germany. Now the pipeline is completed and the Germans are pretending to be surprised that Putin is using it for its intended purpose.

An excellent point.

And, I agree, Nordstream 2 should have been cancelled a decade ago.

 

[Thomas Veil]

What are Putin’s demands?​

To end the standoff (maybe), Putin wants Nato to promise never to accept Ukraine (or Georgia and Moldova) as members. He wants the alliance to pull back from “frontline” countries such as Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, former members of the defunct Warsaw Pact. He wants Kyiv to accept autonomous status for the Donbas region and relinquish its claim to Crimea (as part of the so-called Minsk accords). He wants to limit or halt deployments in eastern and southern Europe of new US medium-range missiles. More ambitious still, he wants to redesign Europe’s “security architecture”, to re-establish Russia’s influence and extend its geopolitical reach. To most of this, the US says “no”. Hence the current crisis.

Putin is dreaming.

If these are indeed his motives, his ego is writing checks his strategy can’t cash. If anything, his actions are unifying and strengthening the resolve of the West. They will end up accelerating the very things he wants to quash.

In the background a Cold War II has been brewing. All this is going to do is make it official.

The edge of war: what, exactly, does Putin want in Ukraine?

The massive military buildup could be a bluff, or a political ploy designed for a Russian audience. Either way, the US is digging in

www.theguardian.com

 

[SuperMatt]

Putin is dreaming.

If these are indeed his motives, his ego is writing checks his strategy can’t cash. If anything, his actions are unifying and strengthening the resolve of the West. They will end up accelerating the very things he wants to quash.

In the background a Cold War II has been brewing. All this is going to do is make it official.

The edge of war: what, exactly, does Putin want in Ukraine?

The massive military buildup could be a bluff, or a political ploy designed for a Russian audience. Either way, the US is digging in

www.theguardian.com

Perhaps he got this confidence from 4 years of Trump trashing NATO allies and refusing to stand up to him. We know for a fact that that Russia interfered in the 2016 elections, and if Putin had this invasion together sooner, he probably could have pulled it off under a Trump presidency. The fact that Biden actually got Germany to put the cancellation of Nordstream 2 on the table shows you how he is infinitely more effective at handling such a situation.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Well, this looks to be it, folks…


My bold.

Biden Warns Putin of ‘Swift and Severe Costs’ of Invading Ukraine — The Wall Street Journal

Two leaders’ phone discussion yields ‘no fundamental change,’ U.S. official says, as both U.S. and Russia pull diplomatic staff out of Ukraine

apple.news

Well, candidly, I think that the Americans (especially Democrat administrations) are haunted by what happened to Chris Stevens; imagine if something similar occurred, and the resulting outcry (not least from Republicans and their appalling fellow travellers).

Granted, several (western) European countries (Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, UK, Ireland, Denmark, Italy, Spain, Germany and Cyprus among others) have advised their citizens to leave Ukraine, (as have the US, Australia, and NZ) and are reducing the numbers staffing their embassies (and, in some cases, have moved embassy and consular staff to places such as Lviv, the far west of (European) Ukraine).

And some airlines have curtailed, or suspended outright, their commercial flights to Ukraine.

However, to me, the real sign - and signal - that something on the lines of military action is imminent will be the actions of the Chinese; thus far, while their citizens have been advised to "keep a close eye" on Ukraine, they have not been advised to leave, and nor has the Chinese embassy reduced its staff or curtailed its activities in Kyiv in any way.

While @MarkusL rightly drew attention to Russian gas networks (Nordstream 2) - and the importance of ending Europe's regrettable energy reliance on Russia, Nicola Sturgeon (the Scottish SNP leader) has argued strongly for tighter controls in the City of London where vast amounts of dubious monies emanating from Russia are thought to wield extraordinary (and excessive) influence; the distinguished writer Anne Applebaum has put it more bluntly, calling for steps to be taken to deal with the flow of Russian monies being laundered through London.

Guns (tanks, bombs) aren't the only weapons that can be called upon; Russia would also feel (as in suffer from) the imposition of severe economic sanctions.

 

[Edd]

Well, candidly, I think that the Americans (especially Democrat administrations) are haunted by what happened to Chris Stevens; imagine if something similar occurred, and the resulting outcry (not least from republican and their appalling fellow travellers).

Granted, several (western) European countries (Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, UK, Ireland, Denmark, Italy, Spain, Germany and Cyprus among others) have advised their citizens to leave Ukraine, (as have the US, Australia, and NZ) and are reducing the numbers staffing their embassies (and, in some cases, have moved embassy and consular staff to places such as Lviv, the far west of (European) Ukraine).

And some airlines have curtailed, or suspended outright, their commercial flights to Ukraine.

However, to me, the real sign - and signal - that something on the lines of military action is imminent will be the actions of the Chinese; thus far, while their citizens have been advised to "keep a close eye" on Ukraine, they have not been advised to leave, and nor has the Chinese embassy reduced its staff or curtailed its activities in Kyiv in any way.

While @MarkusL rightly drew attention to Russian gas networks (Nordstream 2) - and the importance of ending Europe's regrettable energy reliance on Russia, Nicola Sturgeon (the Scottish SNP leader) has argued strongly for tighter controls in the City of London where vast amounts of dubious monies emanating from Russia are thought to wield extraordinary (and excessive) influence; the distinguished writer Anne Applebaum has put it more bluntly, calling for steps to be taken to deal with the flow of Russian monies being laundered through London.

Guns (tanks, bombs) aren't the only weapons that can be called upon; Russia would also feel severe economic sanctions.

I'm going to sound naive. About the Chinese, are you thinking they have inside information about Putin's true intentions here?

 

[User.45]

Well, candidly, I think that the Americans (especially Democrat administrations) are haunted by what happened to Chris Stevens; imagine if something similar occurred, and the resulting outcry (not least from republican and their appalling fellow travellers).

Granted, several (western) European countries (Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, UK, Ireland, Denmark, Italy, Spain, Germany and Cyprus among others) have advised their citizens to leave Ukraine, (as have the US, Australia, and NZ) and are reducing the numbers staffing their embassies (and, in some cases, have moved embassy and consular staff to places such as Lviv, the far west of (European) Ukraine).

And some airlines have curtailed, or suspended outright, their commercial flights to Ukraine.

However, to me, the real sign - and signal - that something on the lines of military action is imminent will be the actions of the Chinese; thus far, while their citizens have been advised to "keep a close eye" on Ukraine, they have not been advised to leave, and nor has the Chinese embassy reduced its staff or curtailed its activities in Kyiv in any way.

While @MarkusL rightly drew attention to Russian gas networks (Nordstream 2) - and the importance of ending Europe's regrettable energy reliance on Russia, Nicola Sturgeon (the Scottish SNP leader) has argued strongly for tighter controls in the City of London where vast amounts of dubious monies emanating from Russia are thought to wield extraordinary (and excessive) influence; the distinguished writer Anne Applebaum has put it more bluntly, calling for steps to be taken to deal with the flow of Russian monies being laundered through London.

Guns (tanks, bombs) aren't the only weapons that can be called upon; Russia would also feel severe economic sanctions.

My absolutely layperson view is this: Putin does things Putin can get away with scot free. Present situation doesn't seem like Putin can get away with war scot free. Now Putin needs to save face without looking weak. If this was trivial, he would have done it already. Putin is in damage control mode. I suspect war doesn't control damage too well. Thus, no war.

 

[Zoidberg]

I'm going to sound naive. About the Chinese, are you thinking they have inside information about Putin's true intentions here?

They are frenemies now (in that they have different but similar interests). I don't think Russia would dare hurt one hair of the Chinese representatives. That said, for all we know, they have been told to pack up and be ready to leave by a certain date.

 

[Edd]

They are frenemies now (in that they have different but similar interests). I don't think Russia would dare hurt one hair of the Chinese representatives. That said, for all we know, they have been told to pack up and be ready to leave by a certain date.

I've a sense of the Russia/China relationship but the notion that Putin told them "Hey guys, this is BS, no worries" confuses me. If they're in cahoots, wouldn't China evacuate the embassy as a part of Russia's ruse?

 

[Scepticalscribe]

I'm going to sound naive. About the Chinese, are you thinking they have inside information about Putin's true intentions here?

No, not necessarily.

However, that does not preclude the possibility that they might be warned - or advised - in advance before anything does happen. In fact, I would expect something of the sort to take place.

In other words, I would be surprised if Mr Putin was prepared to risk Chinese casualties even as an accidental, or unintentional, side effect, or consequence, of any foreign adventure (even in the "Near Abroad") that he might have it in mind to embark upon in Ukraine.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

I've a sense of the Russia/China relationship but the notion that Putin told them "Hey guys, this is BS, no worries" confuses me. If they're in cahoots, wouldn't China evacuate the embassy as a part of Russia's ruse?

This is too unsubtle a reading.

They are not "in cahoots". China's attitude is best viewed as benign neutrality.

However, they are not antagonists, and Mr Putin will not wish to generate a situation where circumstances compel current Chinese detached benevolence on the matter of Russian interests in Ukraine to undergo revision or re-evaluation.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

They are frenemies now (in that they have different but similar interests). I don't think Russia would dare hurt one hair of the Chinese representatives. That said, for all we know, they have been told to pack up and be ready to leave by a certain date.

Well said.

That is a distinct possibility.