Russia-Ukraine

[Edd]

Sorry Zoidberg, I didn't read your reply closely enough.

 

[Zoidberg]

Sorry Zoidberg, I didn't read your reply closely enough.

Russia and China will possibly clash in Africa at some point, but Ukraine is clearly not China's turf, so they can be expected to stay out of the way. If this conflict weakens the EU, US and NATO, it benefits China indirectly, so even if they are not really allies with the Russians, they have an incentive to cooperate with them to a point. Friends of circumstance if you will.

Other nations have no solid advance information about the now probable invasion, so they are being prudent and getting their people out ahead of time, but for all we know China knows that as long as they evacuate by Tuesday night it's fine (but not too early, or that would set off some unmistakable alarm bells).

 

[Zoidberg]

Mr Putin will not wish to generate a situation where circumstances compel current Chinese detached benevolence on the matter of Russian interests in Ukraine to undergo revision or re-evaluation.

Indeed, a conflict between China and Russia would end very poorly for Russia. I can't imagine Beijing to show the sort of compunction and restraint in war that one expects from Western nations that have to deal with elections, free press and opposition parties.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Russia and China will possibly clash in Africa at some point, but Ukraine is clearly not China's turf, so they can be expected to stay out of the way.

In addition to Africa, - with which I agree, though it won't happen for some time, as China's interventions & support in Africa tend to take mainly an economic approach - I would also argue (or, rather, submit) that the map of Siberia may look quite different in around half a century or so, and not to the benefit of Russia.

However, I would be very surprised if Russia (tumbling birth rates, frightful demographics, dodgy economics and limited economic growth) will be able to lay credible claim to quite as much of the eastern Siberian landmass (with all of its mineral and natural resources wealth) as is the case at present, whereas China may cast covetous eyes (its needs - re population, economy, and resources - could well be very different to that of Russia) in the direction of parts of eastern Siberia. But, that is a long way off, and is something that I do not envisage happening for several decades yet.

Or, rather, I will be astonished (but, obviously, will hardly be around to witness this in person) if China does not challenge - in some way - for this.

But agreed, China will not challenge for Ukraine; this is not China's turf.

And, moreover, China may also wish (in the future) for a degree of benign neutrality from Russia should China wish to act on issues of interest to China, such as Taiwan.

If this conflict weakens the EU, US and NATO, it benefits China indirectly, so even if they are not really allies with the Russians, they have an incentive to cooperate with them to a point. Friends of circumstance if you will.

Exactly.

A mutually convenient relationship; a state of benevolent neutrality - as both would greatly desire to see a weakened EU - and an incapable US, and NATO shown to be inadequate.

They are not allies, but they have common interests, and shared preferred outcomes on a limited range of issues; for now, at least, they are not antagonists.

Other nations have no solid advance information about the now probable invasion, so they are being prudent and getting their people out ahead of time, but for all we know China knows that as long as they evacuate by Tuesday night it's fine (but not too early, or that would set off some unmistakable alarm bells).

I believe that China will be informed about any proposed action planned by Russia, - so that precautions (if necessary) can be taken, but this may not have happened yet.

 

[Zoidberg]

Not really relevant, but it's interesting that the US is operating their drones in the open (the ones they want to show, that is), and they can thus tracked by the general public:

This is an RQ4A Global Hawk flying over Eastern Ukraine right now: https://www.flightradar24.com/FORTE12/2acf2d4d. It can fly for over 30 hours so it will be around for a while. It gives us a rare real time glimpse into their flight paths.

 

[User.168]

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[Zoidberg]

China does have interests in Ukraine and are trying to build relationships with countries like Ukraine and Poland. They are leasing quite a lot of land and importing quite a lot of food from Ukraine.

That can be said from pretty much every single country in the world: the Chinese invest in harbours in Australia, in whole islands in the Indian ocean, they buy food from everywhere, they put up telecom infrastructure wherever they can, they invest in land/real estate everywhere. Doesn't mean they care that much about Ukraine, they know it's not their natural turf. Just like investment funds that put some seed money into hundreds of startups, but they are not really invested in any one in particular until it shows a lot of promise and starts growing a lot. From my brief foray in the startup world and the endless boring meetings they made us watch, they understand it's okay to invest and lose a little bit on a lot of small projects if it guarantees a foot in the door when one of them happens to balloon. It also serves to build a welcome –from their standpoint– dependence on Chinese exports (For the record, Russia does it as well in African countries with mercenaries since France lost its influence in the region, and US influence is also a given pretty much everywhere in one way or another). If Russia invades and somehow gets their asses whooped, they will learn from their mistakes. If they take Ukraine swiftly, they'll learn from their success. Playing armchair geopolitics as we are, I'd wager that China stands to gain much more from the current crisis in NATO/US/EU than they stand to lose from their small direct investments if Ukraine sinks into a war.

 

[Citysnaps]

I like Biden's strategy of publicly disclosing Russian strategy/plans picked up through US intelligence means. I think that will pay off allowing Putin to slowly back down without losing too much face.

 

[Deleted member 215]

Seems like all of this could've been avoided with a guarantee that Ukraine would not join NATO. In many ways I think NATO has outlived its purpose. Would we tolerate Mexico joining a Russian alliance?

And before I get called a Russian asset or whatever, no, I don't like the Russian government or Putin. They are certainly a "bad guy" here. But call me insane for being skeptical about reigniting the Cold War. Still hoping this is all going to blow over.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

This sounds like it’s coming from some Russian propaganda source. This is NOT a civil war. It is an invasion of a sovereign country by Russia. Period. Just because some people (a minority) in Ukraine want it to happen is NOT justification for it.

Excusing their actions based on this would be like excusing Mexico invading Texas just because there are a lot of people of Mexican heritage living there.

Here’s another take on the situation from somebody with a bit more knowledge: The former US ambassador to Ukraine.

Understanding the Russia-Ukraine crisis

As Russia increases its military presence along the Ukrainian border, Stanford scholar Steven Pifer discusses what Russia hopes to achieve and why its policies toward Ukraine are backfiring.

news.stanford.edu

Thanks for sharing the link. I wonder how much effective Russian propaganda happens within Ukraine, meaning people buying "you'd be better off more aligned with us". I've heard their economy isn't doing great even before all this and that can lead some to support leaders like Trump Putin to solve their economic woes when the current government seemingly isn't doing much about it.

 

[Zoidberg]

Seems like all of this could've been avoided with a guarantee that Ukraine would not join NATO. In many ways I think NATO has outlived its purpose. Would we tolerate Mexico joining a Russian alliance?

And before I get called a Russian asset or whatever, no, I don't like the Russian government or Putin. They are certainly a "bad guy" here. But call me insane for being skeptical about reigniting the Cold War. Still hoping this is all going to blow over.

On the contrary, this is exactly why NATO is more relevant than ever. It’s a defensive alliance, necessary due to Russia proving again that they remain essentially a bully.

 

[SuperMatt]

Seems like all of this could've been avoided with a guarantee that Ukraine would not join NATO. In many ways I think NATO has outlived its purpose. Would we tolerate Mexico joining a Russian alliance?

And before I get called a Russian asset or whatever, no, I don't like the Russian government or Putin. They are certainly a "bad guy" here. But call me insane for being skeptical about reigniting the Cold War. Still hoping this is all going to blow over.

It looks like Putin wanted a guarantee from Ukraine that they would not join NATO, because as Russia realizes this isn’t going well, they are ramping up diplomatic talks. Part of those talks: the Ukrainian president hints at giving up the “dream” of joining NATO.

NATO isn’t a threat to take over Russia. It IS a bulwark against his expansion. If Ukraine joins NATO, Putin can effectively give up HIS dream of annexing Ukraine, thereby expanding Russia’s boundaries.

All signs (at the moment) seem to indicate that Russia wants to talk, not invade. Biden’s strategy appears to be working quite well. I hope it continues to work and that all of this is resolved peacefully.

 

[Huntn]

Seems like all of this could've been avoided with a guarantee that Ukraine would not join NATO. In many ways I think NATO has outlived its purpose. Would we tolerate Mexico joining a Russian alliance?

And before I get called a Russian asset or whatever, no, I don't like the Russian government or Putin. They are certainly a "bad guy" here. But call me insane for being skeptical about reigniting the Cold War. Still hoping this is all going to blow over.

You Russian asset!
The idea that Russia should be allowed to dictate to any country who it can or can’t join in a partnership military or economic is preposterous. Putin is a defacto dictator. This is a regional bully playing his manipulative, sinister games.

I don’t feel that NATO has outlived it’s purpose. It’s a military alliance of Western European Nations that we joined, yes during the Cold War, but it gives strength to everyone involved against an arguably rogue Nation. Considering how Ukraine has been treated by Russia it is perfectly natural for Ukraine to want to join NATO because then an invasion would put a completely different light on Putin’s aggression.

 

[User.168]

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[User.168]

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[yaxomoxay]

All signs (at the moment) seem to indicate that Russia wants to talk, not invade

There is no way that Russia won’t invade. Putin certainly got some sort of green light from the western countries. Call me a cynic, but I am pretty sure all the calls and visits to Putin were to make sure that gas would still flow westward even after the invasion rather than actual diplomacy. Want to stop - or at least pressure - a Russian invasion? Put 1000 American soldiers at the border, or leave the embassy in Kiev.

I particularly like the US-Europe grandstanding. “We’ll punish Russia!” while Putin probably thinks “maybe, I got Ukraine now, an alliance with China, gasducts, and quite likely I’ll keep most EU/German business.”

. Biden’s strategy appears to be working quite well.

I almost spit my coffee. Biden’s foreign policy is as awful as the post Bill Clinton foreign policy. And here he is showing, once again, American unreliability. I am actually very disappointed because I had high hopes for Biden in matters of foreign policy.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Seems like all of this could've been avoided with a guarantee that Ukraine would not join NATO.

This is a very naive belief. Russia - and Putin of course - are quite paranoid. They have been paranoid since the Berlin Wall fell if not since Stalin. Paranoia is their middle name. Right or wrong they feel threatened. They feel the US/NATO presence everywhere.

Which guarantee could Nato and the rest of the world give Russia? A promise? All it takes to join nato is a few signatures. They can be done in secret, and shock Russia, making Ukraine THE untouchable stronghold of the area.

“I promise that we won’t allow Ukraine to join NATO” is not enough. Even a signed treaty would not be enough as Russia would have very little enforcement power. Once Ukraine joins NATO, Russian military strength (on a geopolitical scene) is gone forever. They can’t risk it, even if there is a “promise.”

 

[Deleted member 215]

So then what can be done? If Russia sees Ukraine's joining of NATO as an existential threat and it will always be a possibility, it seems that an invasion is inevitable. Does Russia want to risk world war to mitigate its paranoia?

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

And before I get called a Russian asset or whatever, no, I don't like the Russian government or Putin. They are certainly a "bad guy" here. But call me insane for being skeptical about reigniting the Cold War. Still hoping this is all going to blow over.

I’ve been recently established as a Russia sympathizing anti-vaxxer who believes 9/11 was orchestrated by a family of bigfoots avenging the aborted fetuses tossed off the western edge of the flat earth. You've started the ball rolling. The rest will just follow organically. I'll keep my eye out for when I should send you a membership card.

 

[Deleted member 215]

I’ve been recently established as a Russia sympathizing anti-vaxxer who believes 9/11 was orchestrated by a family of bigfoots avenging the aborted fetuses tossed off the western edge of the flat earth. You've started the ball rolling. The rest will just follow organically. I'll keep my eye out for when I should send you a membership card.

'Tis the life we chose. As a non-Democrat quasi-isolationist leftist, I have enemies on many sides.