Russia-Ukraine

[Arkitect]

I understand that, but it’s not something that it’s doable in a week, or even a year probably.

Oh, yes, I didn't make that clear.
Of course it is a long term solution, never mind that it is a dirty one, but something will have to be done before the next winter rolls around.
Meanwhile Europe will have to sacrifice.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

I was listening to an interview with Stephen Kotkin yesterday and, yes, part of our (Europe that is) commitment might entail a return to coal and nuclear energy. That is going to be a very bitter pill to swallow… but… what else are we gonna do?

Of course this is why Germany especially is digging in their heels before throwing all Russian banks from Swift. They need one or two to pay for the gas flow.

I'd envisage this as a temporary (but, unfortunately, necessary) expedient, and something we will have to persuade Greens (in government and in our electorates) to acquiese in, or tolerate.

It will give us time to diversify, and also time to pour resources into the development of alternative (and Green) sources of energy - I would expect this to be considerably accelerated, viewed as a necessity rather than a luxury - a sort of "dirty umbrella."

Better coal than cold houses.

 

[yaxomoxay]

I'd envisage this as a temporary (but, unfortunately, necessary) expedient, and something we will have to persuade Greens (in government and in our electorates) to acquiese in, or tolerate.

It will give us time to diversify, and also time to pour resources into the development of alternative (and Green) sources of energy - I would expect this to be considerably accelerated, viewed as a necessity rather than a luxury - a sort of "dirty umbrella."

Better coal than cold houses.

In your opinion, what kind of timelines are we talking about ? 5 years to reduce energy dependence from Russia, 7-10yrs to virtually eliminate it?

 

[Scepticalscribe]

In your opinion, what kind of timelines are we talking about ? 5 years to reduce energy dependence from Russia, 7-10yrs to virtually eliminate it?

Such forecasts aren't my forte: I'd imagine that - with almost bottomless (governmental and EU) encouragement, support and resources - research (and testing) of alternative energy sources will be massively accelerated, and - as we saw with vaccines for Covid - may well happen far faster than some forecasts had envisage.

I would further imagine that such research may well take place on several simultaneous fronts, (wind, solar, tidal, etc) and some may yield unexpected dividends.

Five years?

To be honest, I'd be surprised if there wasn't an enormous reduction within a year, or 18 months, or certainly, two years.

The thing is, by (so openly) threatening Europe's energy supply, the Russians have absolutely guaranteed that Europe will do almost anything to ensure that they are not in thrall to it, and not reliant on it; nothing could have achieved this more rapidly than such overt threats, which - in the long term - will hurt Russia enormously.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Such forecasts aren't my forte: I'd imagine that - with almost bottomless (governmental and EU) encouragement, support and resources - research (and testing) of alternative energy sources will be massively accelerated, and - as we saw with vaccines for Covid - may well happen far faster than some forecasts had envisage.

I would further imagine that such research may well take place on several simultaneous fronts, (wind, solar, tidal, etc) and some may yield unexpected dividends.

Five years?

To be honest, I'd be surprised if there wasn't an enormous reduction within a year, or 18 months, or certainly, two years.

Thanks.
It’s going to be fascinating to observe what happens in the next few years.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Thanks.
It’s going to be fascinating to observe what happens in the next few years.

Well, you know the old saying about how war serves to accelerate scientific and technological change - mainly because states need for it to do so?

That is what we will see here in the field of energy; while the Greens will have to accept a reversion to coal (and possibly nuclear energy), they will also have received a boost such as they could never have imagined in terms of official support for reseach into alternative sources of energy.

We are also seeing German postwar defence and military doctrine transformed, the EU strengthened, NATO given the sort of shot in the arm considered unimaginable since the 1990s seemed to have done away with the immediate need for NATO, and - yes - the (hopes, dreams, physical existence of) an emerging Russian middle class decimated, destroyed, and devastated by this invasion.

 

[SuperMatt]

Such forecasts aren't my forte: I'd imagine that - with almost bottomless (governmental and EU) encouragement, support and resources - research (and testing) of alternative energy sources will be massively accelerated, and - as we saw with vaccines for Covid - may well happen far faster than some forecasts had envisage.

I would further imagine that such research may well take place on several simultaneous fronts, (wind, solar, tidal, etc) and some may yield unexpected dividends.

Five years?

To be honest, I'd be surprised if there wasn't an enormous reduction within a year, or 18 months, or certainly, two years.

The thing is, by (so openly) threatening Europe's energy supply, the Russians have absolutely guaranteed that Europe will do almost anything to ensure that they are not in thrall to it, and not reliant on it; nothing could have achieved this more rapidly than such overt threats, which - in the long term - will hurt Russia enormously.

Don't some Northern European countries get all their natural gas from Russia? Seems like that would be very difficult to change quickly.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Don't some Northern European countries get all their natural gas from Russia? Seems like that would be very difficult to change quickly.

I would expect that markets in countries with interesting habits of extraction (fracking, anyone?) may be explored; possible alliances with regimes currently deemed somewhat less unsavoury than Russia (Libya? Iraq? Iran?) may also be viewed with greater equanimity than has been the case until now.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

The other thing to note, is that while Europe's skies are shut to Russian airlines, and Russian aircraft, those of Africa and Asia are not.

Nevertheless, Belarus is the only "foreign" (i.e. international) route currently flown - or operated - by Aeroflot.

I would have expected that flights would have continued to the countries that abstained on the extraordinary UN vote - India? China? - what used to be considered to be Soviet Central Asia?

It seems to me to be significant that Russian airlines no longer fly anywhere in the world (for Belarus hardly counts).

 

[Arkitect]

Don't some Northern European countries get all their natural gas from Russia? Seems like that would be very difficult to change quickly.

The highest is Hungary with 25%…

See this graph that @yaxomoxay posted here.

 

[MarkusL]

The other thing to note, is that while Europe's skies are shut to Russian airlines, and Russian aircraft, those of Africa and Asia are not.

Nevertheless, Belarus is the only "foreign" (i.e. international) route currently flown - or operated - by Aeroflot.

I would have expected that flights would have continued to the countries that abstained on the extraordinary UN vote - India? China? - what used to be considered to be Soviet Central Asia?

It seems to me to be significant that Russian airlines no longer fly anywhere in the world (for Belarus hardly counts).

Russian airlines are leasing a large part of their fleets, just like most airlines around the world. The Russian government has ordered the airlines to keep the leased planes within their borders where they can be held hostage, safe from repossession. They are also rushing through new regulation to allow unaccredited companies to perform maintenance on the planes using homemade or otherwise improperly sourced parts.

If this is implemented those planes will no longer have a continuous maintenance history, and they will become forever illegal to fly and impossible to insure throughout the civilized world. The planes would then be worthless to their owners even if they would be able to repossess them in the future.

The total value of the planes they are preparing to steal is somewhere on the order of $100 billion.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Russian airlines are leasing a large part of their fleets, just like most airlines around the world. The Russian government has ordered the airlines to keep the leased planes within their borders where they can be held hostage, safe from repossession. They are also rushing through new regulation to allow unaccredited companies to perform maintenance on the planes using homemade or otherwise improperly sourced parts.

If this is implemented those planes will no longer have a continuous maintenance history, and they will become forever illegal to fly and impossible to insure throughout the civilized world. The planes would then be worthless to their owners even if they would be able to repossess them in the future.

The total value of the planes they are preparing to steal is somewhere on the order of $100 billion.

Ah: Now, that does make sense.

Thank you.

 

[SuperMatt]

Biden has announced that America will not import any Russian oil or natural gas.

Also, you will not be able to get a Big Mac, Fries, and a Coke in Russia anymore.. nor a coffee from Starbucks.

 

[Deleted member 215]

Saw an article saying gas prices could go up to $8/gallon in California as a result (I can see why Biden did not want to do this).

Gas prices can only go so high before the riots start...

 

[Cmaier]

Saw an article saying gas prices could go up to $8/gallon in California as a result (I can see why Biden did not want to do this).

Gas prices can only go so high before the riots start...

What’s “gas?” Is that like electricity, but for old people? ;-)

 

[Eric]

Saw an article saying gas prices could go up to $8/gallon in California as a result (I can see why Biden did not want to do this).

Gas prices can only go so high before the riots start...

We're all paying for it one way or the other, with human lives, or goods, either way there's a cost. The shame of it is that the Russian Government doesn't seem to care and those who are getting hurt the most are the citizens of both countries. Maybe it'll piss off the wrong Oligarch enough to slip him a fatal mickey though.

 

[SuperMatt]

Saw an article saying gas prices could go up to $8/gallon in California as a result (I can see why Biden did not want to do this).

Gas prices can only go so high before the riots start...

Republicans (and Joe Manchin) vehemently opposed the ”Green New Deal” and any renewable energy initiatives in Build Back Better.

Maybe this will open their eyes a bit. Relying on fossil fuels is not only bad for the environment, but also for national security.

 

[lizkat]

Adding a bit of cynicism to western businesses pulling out of Russia. At least part of it is because with the sanctions they can’t run transactions. So they aren’t able to do business even if they wanted to, but “we stand with Ukraine” is a better cover story.

I predict if sanctions get reduced to the point that they can do business again and well before there is any kind of justice for Ukraine or consensus on Putin’s mental stability, they’ll go right back to doing business in Russia. Not to be US-centric, but remember how corporations said they were going to stop donating to the GOP because of 1/6? Well, that lasted about 5 minutes and they are right back to donating. You always have to gamble that you might need favors from leadership no matter how insane they might be.

The other gamble is that people will remember stuff for about five minutes too. Sometimes true and other times not so much.

 

[lizkat]

Republicans (and Joe Manchin) vehemently opposed the ”Green New Deal” and any renewable energy initiatives in Build Back Better.

Maybe this will open their eyes a bit. Relying on fossil fuels is not only bad for the environment, but also for national security.

Yeah but unfortunately the GOP talking point there is likely to be "see we told ya that all those blue states putting a moratorium on fracking (and/or pipeline extensions) were all wrong".

So sick of the refusal to leave even one barrel of oil in the damn ground... even with all we know now, and even with all the alternatives to a lot of petrol-based items that we do have now but which so many corporations and consumers have declined to adopt.

We need better pitches for the alternatives, since clearly it's not sinking in that we can't afford to dig up and use all the remaining dead dinosaurs or we'll hasten the day the planet calls Game Over for life on earth.

 

[Yoused]

Early on, a Russian ship approaches Snake Island and tells them to surrender, Ukrainian soldiers reply "Russian ship, GFY!" the ship promptly lobs some shells killing the Ukrainians.

A Russian warship that attacked Snake Island, where Ukrainian soldiers cursed out invaders, has reportedly been destroyed

A military-intelligence group told The Times that the Vasily Bykov was one of two ships that attacked Ukraine's Snake Island last month.

www.businessinsider.com

It appears that desserts have been served, justly.