Russia-Ukraine

[Zoidberg]

In the meantime:

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1501071619439087617/

It also appears that Russian Warship got fukt too:

12ft

12ft.io

Apparently the Russian military has been forced to use regular non-secure communications in some areas because the first thing they did was blow up 3G and 4G towers... which their own encrypted communication system relies on

Also an unconfirmed report of between 30 (!) and 45 (!!) helicopters destroyed by artillery overnight as they were neatly parked on an airfield.

 

[Eric]

The problem is you completely stooped to ad hominem attacks rather than engaging in reasoning.

You need to get off these digs, keep it up and I'll remove you from the thread.

 

[Arkitect]

In the meantime:

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1501071619439087617/

It also appears that Russian Warship got fukt too:

12ft

12ft.io

Apparently the Russian military has been forced to use regular non-secure communications in some areas because the first thing they did was blow up 3G and 4G towers... which their own encrypted communication system relies on

Also an unconfirmed report of between 30 (!) and 45 (!!) helicopters destroyed by artillery overnight as they were neatly parked on an airfield.

Not making light of the situation, but I wonder if this isn't Putin's plan:

1. Crimea
2. Ukraine
3. ????
4. PROFIT!!!

Anyway. I think the dangerous thing is Putin is losing face and "respect" for all to see.

The Russian military are apparently great at doing march pasts in Red Square but not much good at fighting, especially facing a determined population.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Those participating in this thread clearly do not want dissenting opinions, it's also the reason most Republicans won't touch this site with a 10 ft pole. However, if you want to start a new thread on this I'll close this one up and stay out of it going forward. I'll let you guys decide.

To my mind, there is no reason whatsoever to shut this thread down.

The padlock is an all too easy way out.

However, there are many reasons to treat dissenting opinions with respect, - not least here, given precisely why this platform, or site, was set up in the first place - and there are many reasons, also, not to make the mistake of confusing the argument with the person who is making the argument.

One can challenge the argument without belittling or denigrating the person who has made it.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Not making light of the situation, but I wonder if this isn't Putin's plan:

1. Crimea
2. Ukraine
3. ????
4. PROFIT!!!

Anyway. I think the dangerous thing is Putin is losing face and "respect" for all to see.

The Russian military are apparently great at doing march pasts in Red Square but not much good at fighting, especially facing a determined population.

When I was in Georgia, I used to give - deliver - quite a few political briefings; one of the things I looked at was the price of oil.

In summer 2008, - not long before the economic crash, (and entirely coincidentally, not long before Russia's conflict with Georgia, Russia was cocky with confidence, the confidence this cushion gave the country) oil had reached a peak price of $147 per barrel.

The economic crash drove the price (well, drove the demand, hence the price) of oil down, sharply, - it went into freefall - and by the end of the year, oil was trading at around $40 a barrel.

At the time, I recall, from what I had read, that Russia needed oil to be trading at around $80 a barrel to be breaking even.

Bear in mind that in 2008, Russia had the world's second largest reserves of oil (second to Saudi-Arabia) - it has since slipped - and the world's largest reserves of natural gas.

Of course, the irony of this invasion of Ukraine is that Russia's actions have ensured that the west will not just now look elsewhere for energy, - and will seek to find ways to ensure - and guarantee - energy security - but will permanently seek alternatives to Russian oil and gas - just as they had sought permanent alternatives to relying on the Middle East after the oil price shocks of 1973.

This will accelerate R&D and government support for green alternatives, and, in the short, medium and long term - cannot but hurt Russia.

For, Russia will be seen as an unreliable trading partner, and there is no worse fate in economic exchanges; even during the worst crises of the Cold War, the oil still flowed, and was never threatened.

The other tragedy - and it is a tragedy, even if a largely self-inflicted one - is that the emerging and growing Russian Middle Class - which took the best part of thirty years to evolve has been more or less destroyed and decimated in not much more than a week.

For anyone who hopes for a stable, vaguely democratic, at least vaguely progressive, Russia, this is also a real tragedy.

 

[User.45]

You need to get off these digs, keep it up and I'll remove you from the thread.

Edited my post because I want to see your actual reasoning. It's your turn.

 

[Cmaier]

Let's hear your reasoning about how this poll supports your statements about people understanding no-fly zones:

View attachment 12296

View attachment 12297

source:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/aa58ig9d3b/econTabReport.pdf

FYI, third of the responders even stated they've not heard at all or just little about the conflict.

What is this showing us? I may have missed the predicate for this, but I’m not seeing how air strikes on russia (i.e. bombing Russian soil) is related to enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

 

[User.45]

What is this showing us? I may have missed the predicate for this, but I’m not seeing how air strikes on russia (i.e. bombing Russian soil) is related to enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

The points are the following:
1. A poll was used as reference to indicate widespread support of No-Fly zones
2. To establish a no-fly zone, you have to take out Russian ground-to-air defense systems that threaten the Ukrainian airspace, ergo "Conduct air strikes on Russia".
3. I made the assumption that most responders are similarly poorly informed about the specifics of a no-fly zone operation as I was, which led to me called certain things, which you can find above.

For reference on no-fly zones, from Admiral Foggo on NPR:

FOGGO: Well, yes, I think everybody's worried about that. And the biggest concern in the last few days was President Zelenskyy's request for a no-fly zone. Everybody was worried about that because, first of all, Putin said that a no-fly zone would be an act of war. You know, I know a little bit about no-fly zones, having participated in one down in the Libya campaign, and there's two aspects to it. One, you just can't establish it and say it's in effect. You have to go in and take out any enemy air defenses that could possibly threaten NATO or U.S. or, you know, Ukrainian aircraft. That's one. So you're going to put a missile on top of a Russian launcher and kill Russians. No. 2 is you're going to take out enemy aircraft in the sky. And again, that could be NATO, U.S. or Ukrainians downing Russian aircraft. That would lead to provocation and altercation between NATO and the United States and Russia that would lead to World War III.

Russia's military is now encircling several Ukrainian cities

NPR's Rachel Martin talks to retired Admiral James Foggo, who commanded U.S. Naval forces for Europe and Africa, about what Russian forces have been doing, and what their next moves might be.

www.npr.org

 

[Cmaier]

The points are the following:
1. A poll was used as reference to indicate widespread support of No-Fly zones
2. To establish a no-fly zone, you have to take out Russian ground-to-air defense systems that threaten the Ukrainian airspace, ergo "Conduct air strikes on Russia".
3. I made the assumption that most responders are similarly poorly informed about the specifics of a no-fly zone operation as I was, which led to me called certain things, which you can find above.

For reference on no-fly zones, from Admiral Foggo on NPR:

Russia's military is now encircling several Ukrainian cities

NPR's Rachel Martin talks to retired Admiral James Foggo, who commanded U.S. Naval forces for Europe and Africa, about what Russian forces have been doing, and what their next moves might be.

www.npr.org

I would imagine that most people think “air strikes on russia” does not include “take out SAMs in Ukraine,” so I wouldn’t draw much of a conclusion from that poll question. Ukraine is not Russia. And Russia is not Russians. If the question asked “do you think we should attack russian assets in Ukraine to enforce a no-fly zone” you’d have a point, but that’s not what the question asks, and the question, as asked, would not, to most people, include what you’re envisioning.

 

[User.45]

the question, as asked, would not, to most people, include what you’re envisioning.

That's my point. You can't rely on a poll like this when you don't query how much the responders understand crucial details of the question. There's plenty of data to provide some idea about how people feel about a direct confrontation with Russia, like 35F or 35I (specifically only 26% support drone attacks against russian forces 45% consider it a bad idea). You can check out the poll yourself:

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/aa58ig9d3b/econTabReport.pdf

 

[Runs For Fun]

So I did some googling, and believe it or not, it turns out that bickering on forums and playing armchair geopolitics does little to help people in need. So I did some more googling, and I compiled some links to actually help (they all come from official Ukraine government channels or well established charities).

Unless you live next to the Ukrainian border, one of the best ways to help is by donating cash through trusted charities and aid organisations, rather than donating goods. Cash can be transferred quickly to areas where it is needed and individuals and aid organisations can use it to buy what is most needed. All the charities agree:

Unsolicited donations of goods, although well-meant,
can obstruct supply chains and delay more urgent life-saving assistance from getting through.​

(I've put some stuff in quotes to make it easier to collapse and read):

UKRAINE'S OFFICIAL ARMED FORCES FUND:
This is the link to the actual Bank of Ukraine website, and money donated there will go directly to their fund for the Ukrainian armed forces. Short of going to Ukraine and grabbing a rifle, this is the best way to help directly in the fight:

NBU Opens Special Account to Raise Funds for Ukraine’s Armed Forces (updated)

The National Bank of Ukraine has decided to open a special fundraising account to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The central bank’s decision comes after the Ukrainian gove...

bank.gov.ua

The fund also takes cryptocurrencies now, so if you have some laying around, you can put them to good use by sending it here:


That said, it's important to note that unless you're a very generous millionaire, Western countries are already helping Ukraine's armed forces with hundreds of millions of dollars, so your contributions might be put to better use if you help other smaller organisations directly:

Verified charities via the Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/27/how-to-help-ukraine/

Housing:
People fleeing Ukraine are at the worst point in their lives having lost everything, so if you can, please sign up to host them here: https://www.ukrainetakeshelter.com/ or even better, by contacting your closest Ukrainian consulate (*not* embassy) who might have a program already set up and offering your help.

Paramedic assistance:
This is for the Ukrainian Hospitaller corps, they've been active since 2014. As it often happens these days, their main website is a facebook page, but they have been endorsed by official channels, so if you want your money to go to them, use these links.

For Americans who want to send USD:

For Europeans who want to send EURO:

I've been looking for a good place to donate and I just came across the Bank of Ukraine link. I will definitely be making a donation there.

 

[Yoused]

We allow him to do it because everyone refuses to confront him, he's a corrupt piece of shit dictator who needs to be put down but instead we'll all protect him and let him kill anyone he wants with no consequences.

The latest...

Russian soldiers murder volunteers helping starving animals near Kyiv

At noon on March 4, an SUV drove through the streets of Bucha, formerly a cozy green town near Kyiv, now a hotspot of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Three people were in the car: Serhiy Ustymenko, 25, a co-founder of a car repair shop, Maxym Kuzmenko, 28, a hookah

kyivindependent.com

Russian soldiers murder volunteers helping starving animals near Kyiv​

First principle of combat: if it moves, paint it

https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1501172186211848199/

 

[chengengaun]

I've been looking for a good place to donate and I just came across the Bank of Ukraine link. I will definitely be making a donation there.

There seems to be many initiatives on the ground collecting donations. I donated through the Kyiv School of Economics last week.

https://kse.ua

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Adding a bit of cynicism to western businesses pulling out of Russia. At least part of it is because with the sanctions they can’t run transactions. So they aren’t able to do business even if they wanted to, but “we stand with Ukraine” is a better cover story.

I predict if sanctions get reduced to the point that they can do business again and well before there is any kind of justice for Ukraine or consensus on Putin’s mental stability, they’ll go right back to doing business in Russia. Not to be US-centric, but remember how corporations said they were going to stop donating to the GOP because of 1/6? Well, that lasted about 5 minutes and they are right back to donating. You always have to gamble that you might need favors from leadership no matter how insane they might be.

 

[Thomas Veil]

You’re kidding, right?

Russia calls for return to 'peaceful co-existence' with U.S. like during Cold War -Interfax — Reuters

Russia and the United States should return to the principle of \"peaceful co-existence\" like during the Cold War, the Interfax news agency cited the Russian foreign ministry as saying on Tuesday.

apple.news

Yeah, why can’t we just shake hands, pretend nothing happened, and move on?

The idea is as laughable as anything Trump has ever said. There’s no going back from this unless maybe Putin gives himself up to The Hague and the Russians rebuild Ukraine…which would still be cold comfort to the dead.

You have to wonder what is this guy thinking.

 

[Runs For Fun]

You’re kidding, right?

Russia calls for return to 'peaceful co-existence' with U.S. like during Cold War -Interfax — Reuters

Russia and the United States should return to the principle of \"peaceful co-existence\" like during the Cold War, the Interfax news agency cited the Russian foreign ministry as saying on Tuesday.

apple.news

Yeah, why can’t we just shake hands, pretend nothing happened, and move on?

The idea is as laughable as anything Trump has ever said. There’s no going back from this unless maybe Putin gives himself up to The Hague and the Russians rebuild Ukraine…which would still be cold comfort to the dead.

You have to wonder what is this guy thinking.

He's not thinking. He's insane.

 

[yaxomoxay]

You’re kidding, right?

Russia calls for return to 'peaceful co-existence' with U.S. like during Cold War -Interfax — Reuters

Russia and the United States should return to the principle of \"peaceful co-existence\" like during the Cold War, the Interfax news agency cited the Russian foreign ministry as saying on Tuesday.

apple.news

Yeah, why can’t we just shake hands, pretend nothing happened, and move on?

It probably escaped you that it’s not a peace “proposal”. It’s a threat.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Interesting situation which I am still observing.

The US banned energy import from Russia. It’s a relatively big hit to Russia, however the US doesn’t depend on Russia that much.

However, Europe is in a much different situation:

So most of Europe can’t simply turn off the faucet without expecting a very serious damage to their own economy. This is even more true in some countries, some of which close to Russia geographically.

What if Putin reacts to the US ban on Russian energy with a very severe tariff on energy export to Europe, let’s say 10/15%, while decreasing availability by 10% or so to say “we’ll go back to normal as soon as the US removes the ban.”? That could put the US and the EU at serious odds.

 

[Arkitect]

Interesting situation which I am still observing.

The US banned energy import from Russia. It’s a relatively big hit to Russia, however the US doesn’t depend on Russia that much.

However, Europe is in a much different situation:

View attachment 12306

So most of Europe can’t simply turn off the faucet without expecting a very serious damage to their own economy. This is even more true in some countries, some of which close to Russia geographically.

What if Putin reacts to the US ban on Russian energy with a very severe tariff on energy export to Europe, let’s say 10/15%, while decreasing availability by 10% or so to say “we’ll go back to normal as soon as the US removes the ban.”? That could put the US and the EU at serious odds.

I was listening to an interview with Stephen Kotkin yesterday and, yes, part of our (Europe that is) commitment might entail a return to coal and nuclear energy. That is going to be a very bitter pill to swallow… but… what else are we gonna do?

Of course this is why Germany especially is digging in their heels before throwing all Russian banks from Swift. They need one or two to pay for the gas flow.

 

[yaxomoxay]

I was listening to an interview with Stephen Kotkin yesterday and, yes, part of our (Europe that is) commitment might entail a return to coal and nuclear energy. That is going to be a very bitter pill to swallow… but… what else are we gonna do?

I understand that, but it’s not something that it’s doable in a week, or even a year probably.