Russia-Ukraine

[Zoidberg]

Morally I don’t entirely disagree, but yours is a very hard line on the sand.

Newly Declassified Video Shows U.S. Killing of 10 Civilians in Drone Strike (Published 2022)

The New York Times obtained footage of the botched strike in Kabul, whose victims included seven children, through a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit.

www.nytimes.com

That's messed up, but it's not comparable.
One is a monumental fuckup (that should be punished, but won't be), the other is intentional and the backbone of their strategy, and they will keep doing it every day until something happens.

 

[yaxomoxay]

That's messed up, but it's not comparable.
One is a monumental fuckup (that should be punished, but won't be), the other is intentional and the backbone of their strategy, and they will keep doing it every day until something happens.

I know. That’s why I said that the way it was expressed was a very hard line. Mine was more a “side comment” on the black and white of the statement.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Morally I don’t entirely disagree, but yours is a very hard line on the sand.

Newly Declassified Video Shows U.S. Killing of 10 Civilians in Drone Strike (Published 2022)

The New York Times obtained footage of the botched strike in Kabul, whose victims included seven children, through a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit.

www.nytimes.com

Similarly, I still haven’t stopped cringing every time I hear a US politician or news personality say “invasion of a sovereign country” without pause, reflection, or irony. I understand there are some key differences here but that hardly matters when you are a dead civilian or loved one of a dead civilian as a result of the invasion.

 

[chengengaun]

Kuril Islands, Sakhalin, Kamchatka Peninsula, hmm...

After Ukraine, Japan reverts to old line on Russian-controlled islands

Shinzo Abe's nuanced language gone as outlook for negotiations dims

asia.nikkei.com

p/s: That is definitely strategic distraction - Kaliningrad and the Far East (link direct to the timestamp).

 

[Edd]

Kuril Islands, Sakhalin, Kamchatka Peninsula, hmm...

After Ukraine, Japan reverts to old line on Russian-controlled islands

Shinzo Abe's nuanced language gone as outlook for negotiations dims

asia.nikkei.com

Very interesting, thanks for posting.

 

[yaxomoxay]

I’ll just drop it here. From WSJ.

 

[chengengaun]

Very interesting, thanks for posting.

A lot of sensitivity, old wounds and unfinished business in the area. Russian sub bases; China, Russia and the Koreas; animosity between Japan and South Korea; territorial disputes; oil-and-gas fields. Hope there is no sudden move in this area.

 

[Eric]

That's messed up, but it's not comparable.
One is a monumental fuckup (that should be punished, but won't be), the other is intentional and the backbone of their strategy, and they will keep doing it every day until something happens.

Yep, very different than sniping civilians just trying to escape and deliberately bombing hospitals just to murder innocent people.

 

[yaxomoxay]

Kuril Islands, Sakhalin, Kamchatka Peninsula, hmm...

After Ukraine, Japan reverts to old line on Russian-controlled islands

Shinzo Abe's nuanced language gone as outlook for negotiations dims

asia.nikkei.com

Getting ready for arms race I guess

 

[Scepticalscribe]

@Scepticalscribe here's your answer regarding the cancellation of international flights

"Like a deadbeat who hides his car when the repo man comes calling, Russian airlines appear to have absconded with more than US$10 billion worth of rented airplanes rather than let them be repossessed.

After the newest wave of EU sanctions banned not only the sale of aircraft and parts to Russian companies but also access over EU airspace for Russian planes, the country’s airlines responded by absconding with more than 500 planes valued at over $10 billion before they could be repossessed by their lessors. After the newest wave of EU sanctions banned not only the sale of aircraft and parts to Russian companies but also access over EU airspace for Russian planes, the country’s airlines responded by absconding with more than 500 planes valued at over $10 billion before they could be repossessed by their lessors, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday.

Cut off from international markets, supply lines, and aviation insurance providers, Russia’s wings are essentially clipped, which may be why its airlines resorted to withholding more than 500 planes leased to them by foreign firms in order to mitigate their losses.

The news comes after Russia’s aviation regulator recommended on March 5 that all Russian airlines with planes leased from foreign carriers, and not registered in Russia, avoid flying overseas where the aircraft risked being detained upon arrival, according to TASS.

And so Aeroflot, Russia’s flag carrier, as well as the country’s other airlines, halted their international flights after ensuring that their leased aircraft were safely back and tucked away in Russian hangars

In further defiance of the EU sanctions, the Kremlin also advised its airlines to re-register their foreign-owned aircraft, in what is seen as an effort to thwart the revocation of the planes’ certifications, Bloomberg reported."

Russia Absconds with $10bn in Aircraft in Response to EU Sanctions

www.occrp.org

It's a rogue state doubling down.

Gosh.

Thanks for that; much appreciated.

I had wondered why Aeroflot flights to states deemed neutral had come to a halt. This is depressing, informative and instructive.

 

[yaxomoxay]

@Scepticalscribe since you’re interested to this type of issues:

The Kirill Question

How should Pope Francis and the Holy See deal with the head of the Russian Orthodox Church?

www.ncregister.com

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Even Russian State TV Is Pleading With Putin to Stop the War

State propagandists called for Putin to end the “special military operation” before “frightening” sanctions destabilize his regime and risk civil war in Russia.

www.thedailybeast.com

 

[Macky-Mac]

While Aeroflot is not flying to neutral countries, there are still commercial airlines that continue to fly in and out of Russia. While it's still a developing situation, Chinese airlines are continuing service, flights to and from India still fly although flights are still limited by India's COVID restrictions. Others still flying include airlines from Qatar, UAE, Turkey, Serbia and Israel, so it's still possible to travel.....if you have the money.

 

[Macky-Mac]

Interesting situation which I am still observing.

The US banned energy import from Russia. It’s a relatively big hit to Russia, however the US doesn’t depend on Russia that much.

However, Europe is in a much different situation:

View attachment 12306

So most of Europe can’t simply turn off the faucet without expecting a very serious damage to their own economy. This is even more true in some countries, some of which close to Russia geographically.

What if Putin reacts to the US ban on Russian energy with a very severe tariff on energy export to Europe, let’s say 10/15%, while decreasing availability by 10% or so to say “we’ll go back to normal as soon as the US removes the ban.”? That could put the US and the EU at serious odds.

the following chart shows "Russian oil" as opposed to "Russian gas".....clearly some NATO countries rely heavily on Russian crude oil.....it's not clear if these numbers include refined products

 

[Thomas Veil]

Even Russian State TV Is Pleading With Putin to Stop the War

State propagandists called for Putin to end the “special military operation” before “frightening” sanctions destabilize his regime and risk civil war in Russia.

www.thedailybeast.com

They are being very careful about what they say. Even as they try to claim Russia should stop this action, they adhere to the state line that there are lots of Nazis in Ukraine that need to be rooted out.

Of course, how could they say otherwise? To suggest that this was an idiotic idea from the beginning would earn them 15 years in a Russian slammer.

 

[Thomas Veil]

Interesting article about a type of anti-tank defense the Ukrainians are using.

Ukraine's answer to Russian tanks involves a classic tactic: metal 'hedgehogs' — Popular Science

These tank traps are also known as Czech Hedgehogs, and their use dates back to the 1930s. Here's how they work.

apple.news

You, like I, may have seen these things in WWII movies but never known what they’re called, much less how much damage such a simple thing can cause.

Of course, as the article states, they do have their drawbacks. But it’s an interesting throwback to the past nevertheless.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

@Scepticalscribe since you’re interested to this type of issues:

The Kirill Question

How should Pope Francis and the Holy See deal with the head of the Russian Orthodox Church?

www.ncregister.com

Very interesting.

Worth noting is the fact that Stalin himself had been a seminarian, but had quit the priesthood before he could be ordained.

In Georgia, the Catholicos-Patriarch, Ilia II, is genuinely respected; in fact, I would go so far as to say that he is revered.

Actually, I have attended concerts (classical music, or ballet, or opera) at which he appeared - simply attending as a member of the audience, - and I have observed the exceptionally warm reception (genuine standing ovations, enthusiastic, spontaneous, and very warm - I've been present at enough of the other kind to know the difference) he received.

Kirill's position is different, and his proximity to Mr Putin, and tendency to supply theological justifications for what are indefensible actions may yet cost him dearly within the wider Orthodox communion.

 

[Scepticalscribe]

While Aeroflot is not flying to neutral countries, there are still commercial airlines that continue to fly in and out of Russia. While it's still a developing situation, Chinese airlines are continuing service, flights to and from India still fly although flights are still limited by India's COVID restrictions. Others still flying include airlines from Qatar, UAE, Turkey, Serbia and Israel, so it's still possible to travel.....if you have the money.

Fascinating.

I had wondered about that, too.

Turkish Airlines have a very wide reach, and are prepared to fly regular routes to places many other airlines wouldn't touch.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

They are being very careful about what they say. Even as they try to claim Russia should stop this action, they adhere to the state line that there are lots of Nazis in Ukraine that need to be rooted out.

Of course, how could they say otherwise? To suggest that this was an idiotic idea from the beginning would earn them 15 years in a Russian slammer.

Maybe they can contact their colleagues at Fox for tips on how to astroturf insanity and incompetence.

 

[lizkat]

Piece in the WSJ today about the London Metal Exchange having had to shut down for a few days while it sorts itself out from extreme volatility in the nickel market. The price rose 66% on Monday and had briefly doubled on Tuesday. Russia is a major source of nickel, which of course is in huge demand globally since used in production of batteries, stainless steel, etc.

What I found interesting is that it was a Chinese holding company (and major nickel producer, with plants in Africa and Asia) that had managed to make enough forward sales of nickel that it ended up short to the tune of an $8 billion paper loss, after nickel pricing surged as Russia invaded Ukraine. The holding company claims now it has rounded up enough nickel to settle short positions in its accounts. Nickel has traded since in Shanghai and prices have dropped enough to suspend trading a couple times, so looks like the crunch may be over except for firms still trying to round up enough cash for their margin calls while the LME shutdown persists.

Nickel Market Freeze Extended to Sort Out Big Trading Loss Amid Ukraine War

The pause until next week gives the London Metal Exchange more time to resolve a crisis caused by a trade that originated in China, a high-profile example of how the conflict has hit financial markets.

www.wsj.com

The short squeeze had affected other producers as well and the market practically seized up...

Chinese Nickel Giant Tsingshan Faces $8 Billion Trading Loss as Ukraine War Upends Market

Nickel prices soared, part of a self-reinforcing dynamic known as a short squeeze, prompting the London Metal Exchange to suspend trading in the metal.

www.wsj.com

The advance in nickel prices, beginning with the invasion, inflicted losses on companies, including Tsingshan, that had sold nickel contracts to lock in prices for their metallic products. Those companies, their banks and their brokers struggled to meet margin calls from exchanges, traders said. They rushed to close out losing positions by buying back nickel contracts.

Hardly anyone would sell to them, the traders said, so the purchases led to a huge rise in prices in a self-reinforcing dynamic known as a short squeeze. The crescendo arrived early Tuesday, when the price of nickel on the London Metal Exchange hit a record high of over $100,000 a metric ton before pulling back somewhat.

What Putin thinks of a supposed best bud harboring a (privately held) Chinese firm that routinely shorts Russian nickel to hedge its operations, well... who knows. He and Xi can hash that one out over lunch sometime, assuming they stay friends and assuming Xi doesn't find anything untoward when he looks into the Chinese holding company's operations in recent times, which look-see is bound to occur. There was mention of "foreign investors" and no revelation of what nations they hailed from.

Meanwhile the holding company stated to Chinese state media that its finances are in good order, no problem, no worrries. What else would they say, all things considered.

Can't make this stuff up, and this is just tip of iceberg as far as demos of the global blowback from both Putin's war on Russia and the rest of the world's sanctions on Russia.