Russia-Ukraine

[Eric]

Russian Chemical Suits being supplied to Russian troops

A senior administration official told ABC News Friday that the U.S. is getting reports the Russians are starting to bring in biochemical weapon suits into Ukraine.

The reports comes as the Russians accuse Ukraine and the U.S. of developing biochemical weapons, which the U.S. has denied.

"We believe it is an ominous sign they are possibly doing it for cover," the official said.

According to the official, as much as one-fifth of the Russian force is currently "inoperable," meaning they are either dead, wounded or do not have the support or equipment needed to continue.

 

[SuperMatt]

Russian Chemical Suits being supplied to Russian troops

Putin has exposed how weak his military truly is.

 

[Citysnaps]

How do we unite our own country when millions of average Americans think the war is predicated around Hunter Biden?

Fully investigate trump and his connections with Putin, exposing every single detail.

As an aside, I believe Ukraine is in this mess because of trump. When he was president, trump weakened NATO (and in the process emboldening Putin) by criticizing the organization and telling the world the United States should withdraw from the alliance.

That, and coupled with trump’s withholding of military aid to Ukraine (Zelensky refused to accede to trump’s repeated demands to find dirt on Biden’s son, for the upcoming 2020 election) was all that Putin needed to develop a plan to go forward. It was a golden opportunity for Putin to start fulfilling his goal.

Fortunately, Putin’s meddling in the 2020 presidential election to keep trump in power didn’t work out, but still left the dictator a great opportunity to takeover Ukraine with all the “Biden stole the election” internal discord that’s *still* going on in the US, along with supporting sympathetic legislators perpetuating the lie and discord. The RNC and legislators embracing the chaos/trashing and insurrection of the United States Capitol, and then characterizing it as “legitimate political discourse,” sealed the deal and made it a ripe opportunity for Putin.

trump’s recent cheerleading calling Putin a smart and savvy genius, and NATO “not so smart” with his criticism, is bewildering. As is the continuing failure by many legislators and citizens to call out trump for his actions and resulting consequences.

Because of that, there’s no doubt in my mind Putin and Russia will again interfere in the 2024 presidential election in an attempt to put his boy trump back in power, and, likely in the 2022 midterms in an effort to install supporting legislators.

Putin’s goal (in case anyone doesn’t know) is to reconstitute what was once the Soviet Union, by taking control over what were the previous 15 Soviet republics (including Russia); something he’s been wanting to do for a long time. Conquering Ukraine is just the first step.

 

[Yoused]

Putin has exposed how weak his military truly is.

Well, they started out behind. Russia failed to put forth a substantive causus belli, which means that the soldiers lack the strong motivation the need to drive the war effort. Some of them are rawrrr-I-wanna-kill types, such as are found in any given army, but it looks like most of them seem to be there to do their hitch. Meanwhile, the Ukes are defending their homes, which carries with it the strongest natural impetus.

In other words, Vlad's army may indeed be custard-in-camo, but I would not take that as an article of faith. If they were tasked with actually defending Mother Russia, they might be doing a much better job.

 

[SuperMatt]

Fully investigate trump and his connections with Putin, exposing every single detail.

As an aside, I believe Ukraine is in this mess because of trump. When he was president, trump weakened NATO (and in the process emboldening Putin) by criticizing the organization and telling the world the United States should withdraw from the alliance.

That, and coupled with trump’s withholding of military aid to Ukraine (Zelensky refused to accede to trump’s repeated demands to find dirt on Biden’s son, for the upcoming 2020 election) was all that Putin needed to develop a plan to go forward. It was a golden opportunity for Putin to start fulfilling his goal.

Fortunately, Putin’s meddling in the 2020 presidential election to keep trump in power didn’t work out, but still left the dictator a great opportunity to takeover Ukraine with all the “Biden stole the election” internal discord that’s *still* going on in the US, along with supporting sympathetic legislators perpetuating the lie and discord. The RNC and legislators embracing the chaos/trashing and insurrection of the United States Capitol, and then characterizing it as “legitimate political discourse,” sealed the deal and made it a ripe opportunity for Putin.

trump’s recent cheerleading calling Putin a smart and savvy genius, and NATO “not so smart” with his criticism, is bewildering. As is the continuing failure by many legislators and citizens to call out trump for his actions and resulting consequences.

Because of that, there’s no doubt in my mind Putin and Russia will again interfere in the 2024 presidential election in an attempt to put his boy trump back in power, and, likely in the 2022 midterms in an effort to install supporting legislators.

Putin’s goal (in case anyone doesn’t know) is to reconstitute what was once the Soviet Union, by taking control over what were the previous 15 Soviet republics (including Russia); something he’s been wanting to do for a long time. Conquering Ukraine is just the first step.

I agree; Trump’s transactional and immoral approach to foreign policy weakened America’s alliances and strengthened rogue states like Russia.

Instead of going after Russia for its PROVEN interference in the 2016 election, we had a man-child with a bruised ego that took it as a personal insult that he won thanks to help from anybody, let alone Putin.

I do believe this invasion could NOT have happened without 4 years of Trump’s calamitous foreign policy.

 

[lizkat]

I agree; Trump’s transactional and immoral approach to foreign policy weakened America’s alliances and strengthened rogue states like Russia.

Instead of going after Russia for its PROVEN interference in the 2016 election, we had a man-child with a bruised ego that took it as a personal insult that he won thanks to help from anybody, let alone Putin.

I do believe this invasion could NOT have happened without 4 years of Trump’s calamitous foreign policy.

I'd just like to know if and how Trump is actually beholden to Putin. Trump's behavior towards him continues to baffle me. And the US government, the institution, the archives, need to know exactly got said in Helsinki between Trump and Putin privately without witnesses past translators.

 

[Citysnaps]

I agree; Trump’s transactional and immoral approach to foreign policy weakened America’s alliances and strengthened rogue states like Russia.

Instead of going after Russia for its PROVEN interference in the 2016 election, we had a man-child with a bruised ego that took it as a personal insult that he won thanks to help from anybody, let alone Putin.

I do believe this invasion could NOT have happened without 4 years of Trump’s calamitous foreign policy.

Totally agree. With trump in office as president, it was a perfect storm for Putin.

 

[SuperMatt]

I'd just like to know if and how Trump is actually beholden to Putin. Trump's behavior towards him continues to baffle me. And the US government, the institution, the archives, need to know exactly got said in Helsinki between Trump and Putin privately without witnesses past translators.

This invasion is looking like it took well over a year to plan and prepare for. It makes one wonder if Putin expected to have a friendly face in the White House when it started.

 

[Citysnaps]

This invasion is looking like it took well over a year to plan and prepare for. It makes one wonder if Putin expected to have a friendly face in the White House when it started.

Bingo - that's it!

And with the continuing discord in the US, with sympathetic members of Congress, Putin will likely meddle to try and get him elected in 2024. And supporting legislators in 2022. Watch out!

 

[Scepticalscribe]

This invasion is looking like it took well over a year to plan and prepare for. It makes one wonder if Putin expected to have a friendly face in the White House when it started.

Yes, I expect that he did.

And I also suspect that the advent of Covid may have delayed his plans by a year or so.

 

[Yoused]

Putin will likely meddle to try and get him elected in 2024.

However, we now know about the meddling and will be working to minimize it – nevermind the problems Vlad will have to cope with at home. Hopefully this whole enterprise is a huge пизец for him.

 

[AG_PhamD]

Putin has exposed how weak his military truly is.

One of my families friends is a Polish immigrant. He was conscripted into the Soviet Navy on a submarine in the early/mid 80’s. He’s always said “I don’t know why you guys were so afraid of the soviets in the Cold War”. Basically everything was always broken- never really mission ready, moral was low, corruption was rampant, and the crews would basically be teetering on the edge of mutiny at any given time.

Chemical/biological weapons are a terrifying prospect, both for the people of Ukraine but also the world. If such weapons are used I’m not sure the world will stand by and watch weapons of mass destruction be used… meaning WWIII would be the likely outcome.

Chemical weapons has been my biggest concern since it was apparent the Russians blitzkrieg campaign had failed the Ukrainians were not going to give up their country without a fight.

 

[Zoidberg]

One of my families friends is a Polish immigrant. He was conscripted into the Soviet Navy on a submarine in the early/mid 80’s. He’s always said “I don’t know why you guys were so afraid of the soviets in the Cold War”. Basically everything was always broken- never really mission ready, moral was low, corruption was rampant, and the crews would basically be teetering on the edge of mutiny at any given time.

Chemical/biological weapons are a terrifying prospect, both for the people of Ukraine but also the world. If such weapons are used I’m not sure the world will stand by and watch weapons of mass destruction be used… meaning WWIII would be the likely outcome.

Chemical weapons has been my biggest concern since it was apparent the Russians blitzkrieg campaign had failed the Ukrainians were not going to give up their country without a fight.

Speaking of that, a couple of anecdotes I believe I read in the excellent book Blind Man's Bluff:

Soviet submariners used to joke that if the US ever captured one of their submarines to study their technology, it would set them back 20 years.

And when they designed their first submarine-launched missile it didn't work, so for the demonstration to show it off in front of the brass they had a surface ship in the same position as the submarine and they launched the missile from the ship, to trick Khrushchev (IIRC) into believing it had been launched from the sub.

 

[fooferdoggie]

maybe no be a tourist in Ukraine
https://www.twitter.com/i/web/status/1502370136128434181/

 

[Arkitect]

Yes, I expect that he did.

And I also suspect that the advent of Covid may have delayed his plans by a year or so.

Definitely. On paper it must have seemed to all be in place for a smash and grab invasion.

1. Covid, the world's attention is off the ball, exhausted and financial resources stretched;
2. Biden perceived as a weak US President;
3. New unproven German Chancellor Olaf Scholz;
4. Pfeffel Johnson, a Clown for a UK PM;
5. Xi Jinping assured as a sleeping ally;
6. Russian military, obviously glossing over their own parlous state of affairs.

Extra card?
Trump's dealings with Putin.

What could possibly go wrong?

 

[sgtaylor5]

Putin has exposed how weak his military truly is.

https://seapowermagazine.org/russia...l-when-operated-by-ukrainians-acc-chief-says/

Slam!

 

[Macky-Mac]

Russia is recruiting foreign mercenaries to fight in Ukraine......it seems they may have underestimated the number of troops they'd need in Ukraine.

report from Forbes

report from The Guardian

 

[lizkat]

Definitely. On paper it must have seemed to all be in place for a smash and grab invasion.

1. Covid, the world's attention is off the ball, exhausted and financial resources stretched;
2. Biden perceived as a weak US President;
3. New unproven German Chancellor Olaf Scholz;
4. Pfeffel Johnson, a Clown for a UK PM;
5. Xi Jinping assured as a sleeping ally;
6. Russian military, obviously glossing over their own parlous state of affairs.

Extra card?
Trump's dealings with Putin.

What could possibly go wrong?

Right. Well aside from Murphy's Law, of course. But Putin has forgotten that living in a bubble full of sycophants is a recipe for inflation of perceived power coupled with erosion of real capability to lead effectively. Too bad for Ukraine, Europe, Russia itself and the rest of the planet that it's taking so long for the cocoon he's ended up in to come apart and reveal not a butterfly but a shriveled larva.

That said, bubbles don't usually manage to keep autocrats free of concerns about loyalty of associates and subordinates. I don't think Putin assumes he's invulnerable; he's clearly paranoid about even his inner circle. The media are casting his very recent purges in the FSB as the tip of his blame-game, but there's more to it than pointing at perceived intel failures, surely. He likely regards some of his lack of good informaton as a treasonous personal betrayal, and may be angry that he exercised his power to gloss over some of the FSB scandals of recent years as well.

None of it bodes well for Putin's ability to view his miscalculations rationally, so to construct an exit that can be described as a victory to his countrymen. He needs a way to save face and go home already. His lackeys haven't the imagination for it. Maybe Xi can help him find a way to frame a retreat as appropriate after, say, "having rid Ukraine of the troublemakers" or whatever.

It's all so messed up --for the planet!-- and in combination with the aftereffects of covid and the sanctions, will remain so for decades no matter what happens now. It's callous but true to suggest (as some media pieces are already doing) that Ukrainian cities, airports, bridges and roads can be rebuilt, even as each death is now and will be forever mourned by family, friends, Ukrainian political leaders. But rebuilding and mourning alone do not heal the past, they paper it over so whoever is left behind after war can summon the will to go on living.

The thing is, the infuriating thing is, that this did not have to happen. Or did it? Anyway here we are and it's history in the making again and for historians to say later whatever historians say when it's time to revisit history made yet again. Commentary, always commentary, but no answers because those best qualifed to ask the questions are dead. I am reminded of Randall Jarrell's poem "Losses"... closing lines of which are below:

​

We read our mail and counted up our missions—​

In bombers named for girls, we burned​

The cities we had learned about in school—​

Till our lives wore out; our bodies lay among​

The people we had killed and never seen.​

When we lasted long enough they gave us medals;​

When we died they said, “Our casualties were low.”​

They said, “Here are the maps”; we burned the cities.​

​

It was not dying —no, not ever dying;​

But the night I died I dreamed that I was dead,​

And the cities said to me: “Why are you dying?​

We are satisfied, if you are; but why did I die?”​

 

[SuperMatt]

Putin is threatening that he would consider anybody bringing weapons to Ukrainians a legitimate target.

If Russian troops attack a shipment from NATO, would that trigger article 5? Are we then in a NATO vs Russia war?

 

[lizkat]

Russia is recruiting foreign mercenaries to fight in Ukraine......it seems they may have underestimated the number of troops they'd need in Ukraine.

report from Forbes

report from The Guardian

from the Forbes link:

Whether Russia’s superior military technology and greater size will allow it to succeed anyway. “The odds are always going to be on Russia’s side,” given that it’s the “larger, richer and more powerful country with a much bigger military,” Kagan told Forbes. That being said, should Russia take Ukraine but then Ukrainians wage an insurgency, Kagan noted “Russians just do not have the manpower to conduct an effective counterinsurgency on a country the size of Ukraine and sustain it over years.” Ultimately, Kagan said, “I’m pretty comfortable saying, along with a growing number of analysts and experts, that there's going to be an independent and free Ukraine at the end of this,” though it’s unclear whether that will happen “in a month, in six months, in a year, five years, or 10 years.”

Small consolation that western analyses are "comfortable" --with a forecast of Ukraine's eventual emergence from the horrors of this war into "independent and free" status again-- for those cradling the body of a mortally wounded family member or neighbor this afternoon. And small consolation for everyone around the world whose ways of living will long be disrupted by sanctions meant to cripple Putin's ability to sustain his war and his constituents at home.

Sure it will be a quagmire if Russia elects to try to stay and occupy Ukraine to support puppet government(s) there. And an even more unholy mess if it ends up being pitched battles amongst mercenaries and recruited or voluntary militia on both sides. Ukrainians have already done all possible to confuse the incoming Russians.

Imagine the confusion of Syrians, Chechens, green Russian conscripts or Ukranian expats arriving in terrain often already intentionally stripped of road signs and place names: a quagmire saps the strength of all who try to navigate for advantage.

But the enemy is the war itself. Add in absurdities like the Russians having to rely on personal mobile phones for unencrypted combat communications. Their comms are broadcast on Twitter by casual eavesdroppers! And speaking of communication, do we think the imported Syrian experts in urban warfare speak Ukranian? Maybe by now, some know a little Russian from their battlefield hookups with defenders of Assad. But Ukraine is not Syria. And who knows where the loyalties of recruits from Chechnya actually lie. Whoever is bought can be purchased anew...

It's sickening that Putin won't abandon his fantasies of omnipotence in a battle against projected "western aggressors." And bizarre --tragic, even-- that he meanwhile tears down everything Russia and Europe had managed to cobble together over 30 years of reaching commercial if not political understandings.