Russia-Ukraine

hmmmm, have Russia's decision makers recalculated the possible outcome? is there any chance that Putin has decided it's time to declare victory?

From The Guardian's ongoing coverage, and as various news sources are reporting;

"First phase of invasion 'generally' complete, says Russia in downgrading of aims

Russia’s defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation was “generally” complete, saying the country will focus on the “liberation” of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

The defence ministry stated Russian-backed separatists now controlled 93% of Luhansk and 54% of Donetsk, the self-proclaimed republics in Ukraine’s east. The two together are commonly known as the Donbas region.

“The main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished,” Sergei Rudskoi, the head of the Russian general staff’s main operational directorate said during a briefing...."
 
hmmmm, have Russia's decision makers recalculated the possible outcome? is there any chance that Putin has decided it's time to declare victory?

From The Guardian's ongoing coverage, and as various news sources are reporting;

"First phase of invasion 'generally' complete, says Russia in downgrading of aims

Russia’s defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation was “generally” complete, saying the country will focus on the “liberation” of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

The defence ministry stated Russian-backed separatists now controlled 93% of Luhansk and 54% of Donetsk, the self-proclaimed republics in Ukraine’s east. The two together are commonly known as the Donbas region.

“The main objectives of the first stage of the operation have generally been accomplished,” Sergei Rudskoi, the head of the Russian general staff’s main operational directorate said during a briefing...."


It’s being speculated that he’s exhausted all his military options short of doing something that will potentially trigger WW3. I’m curious to see how he plans to sell the justification for all the death and destruction in the areas that aren’t exactly around the separatist regions. Since they are already a big fan of Tucker Carlson maybe review his coverage of 1/6 for some tips on how to bury people’s head in the sand. “It was just a couple patriot knuckleheads leveling the city. Mostly it was a field trip”.
 
is there any chance that Putin has decided it's time to declare victory?

Welcome to open-source Russian war planning. What else should we expect when we already saw Russians using cheap mobiles and unencrypted comms on the battle field. Putin's generals are getting slain on the front lines while they try to teach recruits how to conduct attacks. The Kremlin has finally confirmed a (most likely highly understated) death toll of over a thousand of their combatants in a month.. and that was before the bombing of that troop carrier, photos of which went viral, plus his own state TV outlet has now aired a risky and loud dispute over whether the war is won and if not, what to try next.

Memo to Vladimir: pull in your horns and keep saying you got what you needed.

He should go back to trying to hold it together in Donbas, which will now have become more and not less difficult, since all Ukrainians have now had their consciousness raised regarding Putin's actual intentions towards their whole country, not just eastern and southeastern areas.

No one can unring that bell. Ukrainians all know now, and so does the world, especially Eastern Europe, NATO, the EU as well as China and India.

You can tell Putin's status has evolved now to that of a mere star in geopolitical theatre, when Kim Jong-un launches a missile to remind the world that he too is a lethal threat. This is not a compliment to Putin's battlefield accomplishments in Ukraine, and Putin surely knows that. So may most Russians, after the extraordinary shouting matches on Russian state television.

Time to head to the negotiating table. I don't think Russia has the same advantage they may have had there a few weeks ago. It's not likely to get better. Their well documented attacks on civilians churn the stomach regardless of whether intentional or the result in some cases of crap hardware or poor judgment in attempts to deploy it. Their morale is sapped by unexpected resistance, poor command training and a rising death toll among troops and brigadier generals alike.

Someone from the Bush 43 admin should ship Putin that unfortunate Mission Accomplished banner with a note that says "Ours wasn't and yours can't be either; go home already and save some lives."
 

This bit from his speech today, about JK Rowling being canceled and how that’s similar to Russia being canceled was…..

This seems super Trumpy, right? Like, Trump got the boot, and VP is following that playbook? Seems like he’s truly fucked on the PR front.
Well, Putin is losing the war so it makes sense for him to put some attention on his next career move. Such as auditioning for a job on Fox News.
 
Well, Putin is losing the war so it makes sense for him to put some attention on his next career move. Such as auditioning for a job on Fox News.

Maybe Putin could replace Tucker Carlson who lately seems to have lost his mind trying to decide which way to spin the world (and path to electoral politics?) that he thought he had created.

One may well wonder what it would actually take to get the Murdochs to do a Fox course correction.
 
Well, Putin is losing the war so it makes sense for him to put some attention on his next career move. Such as auditioning for a job on Fox News.
Let’s take that further, Putin and Trump have their own Fox show, prime time, replacing Tucker Carlson. I support this move for Fox.
 
Maybe Putin could replace Tucker Carlson who lately seems to have lost his mind trying to decide which way to spin the world (and path to electoral politics?) that he thought he had created.

One may well wonder what it would actually take to get the Murdochs to do a Fox course correction.
Goddamn it, two minutes before me?
 
So on the “pure” scale the countries widely known as socialist or communist are nowhere near the actual definition and to distort things further the detractors of those systems are constantly pointing out their failings as being a part of a system that they don’t fit the definition of.

It certainly muddies the waters of politics when different folks will use different meanings with the same terms, yes. I keep thinking of Nietzsche's writings on the social contract nature of "truth", and how applicable it is here. How can we as a society effectively debate the merits/problems with a form of state if we can't even agree on what the terms mean? In the US, there's definitely a common interpretation that communism and socialism comes hand-in-hand with single-party authoritarianism, which causes lashing out at not only authoritarian communist regimes, but also democratic socialist regimes that hold competitive elections. They are really different axes in my mind, although it is fair to say that states that call themselves communist have so far veered pretty quickly into some form of single-party authoritarianism, making me doubt that communism's original intent (of being a giant worker co-op as a government) being feasible at large scales.

No one can unring that bell. Ukrainians all know now, and so does the world, especially Eastern Europe, NATO, the EU as well as China and India.

So much this. A clear war of aggression is crossing a line that will get folks to take notice. But the reason Nazi Germany was given concessions was because of their military successes and the recent memory of the last war, not simply because they were saber rattling. The worst outcome for Putin here is to cross that line, and then on top of it show that his only bite is in his willingness to commit war crimes as he fails militarily. While the nuclear arsenal will keep others from wading in and risking escalation, which has come at grave cost in Ukraine, I don't think it will prevent Russia from facing containment strategies from NATO and others.
 
Maybe Putin could replace Tucker Carlson who lately seems to have lost his mind trying to decide which way to spin the world (and path to electoral politics?) that he thought he had created.

One may well wonder what it would actually take to get the Murdochs to do a Fox course correction.

If he hasn't already, I can't wait to hear Tuckers spin on Ukrainian refugees in the US.
 
it is fair to say that states that call themselves communist have so far veered pretty quickly into some form of single-party authoritarianism, making me doubt that communism's original intent (of being a giant worker co-op as a government) being feasible at large scales.
There has always been a few factors at play here, the biggest probably being socioeconomic pressure from the "capitalist" global community. A "communist" state has to tighten up because capitalists are constantly trying to break or undermine them, using in part the tools of the countries they already own. Communism may threaten their access to resources but it also threatens the viability of the labor architecture of capitalist systems: if a communist country is allowed to succeed on its own terms, the labor pool in the capitalist countries will start making outrageous demands that threaten the profitability of industry.

In reality, I believe that the original goal of the Soviets was to transition to a confederation model where the power structure was strongest at the lower levels, because that really is the only practical way to implement sustainable collectivism. People who get their hands on power, however, seem to be reluctant to let go of any of it, and when your entire national experiment is under unending existential threat, the chance of restructuring your system fades rapidly. You need that despot to help defend you from foreign enemies.

The system in the US is not hugely different from the old USSR in practical terms. We are forming a strong klepto-plutocracy, which ultimately adds up to the net equivalent. It is pretty hard to avoid being depressed by the serious flaws in human nature that lead us to form all these broken nations, but one can always hope that we might someday discover the path out before we go extinct.
 
The change of Russian propaganda and strategy is welcome, but also clearly an embarrassing lie. It’s like if on 9/11 the planes bounced off the twin towers leaving them completely untouched and then Osama posted a video saying “We have successfully lit an oily rag and thrown it in a dumpster. This was our plan all along. We have greatly reduced the enemy’s ability to dispose of garbage for at least several hours. Allahu akbar.”
 
Assuming it's real and not just an announcement for propaganda purposes. I'd say this is very much a "wait and see" situation. If it happens, then yeah it's a somewhat positive development, but don't be surprised if it doesn't happen
I just think it’s comical they said they have greatly reduced Ukraine’s military capacity even though there has been no signs of that and as long as Russia hasn’t sealed all borders weapons will continue to pour in from the collective west which will also be the reality if they just decide to post up in the separatist regions.

I think it’s telling that even their stranglehold of the Russian media has somewhat gone off the rails with telling people that it sure seems like the Ukrainians don’t want them there or to be liberated from the Nazi drug addicts.
 


By realistic estimates Russia has lost more troops in the last month than all US military casualties combined since Vietnam and we've been involved in a ton of military action. :oops:
 
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Interesting. In this case I thought they proudly called themselves socialist as opposed to the west labeling them that a la our socialist President Biden.

The US gets raided by Wall St, but hey, since you can also get 0.00000234% of that wealth gain I guess we're a lot better.
No. You can’t compare Wall St and Venezuela/Russia/whatever. When I say raided, I mean it. It’s like Russia, but they don’t have Nukes, and the weather is nice.
 
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