2024 Democrat Presidential Candidates

[Herdfan]

Over the last year or so I've seen a very noticeable slowing down on the above with Biden. How will that change over the next 12 months? Or if he had a Feinstein or mcconnell event or two?

Just my opinion, but he has had them. Maybe not as severe, but he has had them.

Instead, at this rate, Biden WILL be able to campaign from the basement, and will coast to reelection just like Bill Clinton did in 1996. If republicans don’t get their stuff together and nominate someone who poses a threat to Biden’s second term, then they will just stick with Trump and do all the same shit that has lead him here in the first place. I’m cautiously optimistic everything is playing out as it should.

Clinton's approval ratings were in the mid to high 50's at this point in the '96 campaign. Biden is struggling to stay in out of the 30's.

And I would take Bubba back in a heartbeat.

 

[Citysnaps]

Apparently it's becoming even more concerning.

"Party leaders have rallied behind the president’s re-election bid, but as one top Democratic strategist put it, “The voters don’t want this, and that’s in poll after poll after poll.”

Top Democrats’ Bullishness on Biden 2024 Collides With Voters’ Worries (Published 2023)

Party leaders have rallied behind the president’s re-election bid, but as one top Democratic strategist put it, “The voters don’t want this, and that’s in poll after poll after poll.”

www.nytimes.com

 

[GermanSuplex]

Apparently it's becoming even more concerning.

"Party leaders have rallied behind the president’s re-election bid, but as one top Democratic strategist put it, “The voters don’t want this, and that’s in poll after poll after poll.”

Top Democrats’ Bullishness on Biden 2024 Collides With Voters’ Worries (Published 2023)

Party leaders have rallied behind the president’s re-election bid, but as one top Democratic strategist put it, “The voters don’t want this, and that’s in poll after poll after poll.”

www.nytimes.com

Meh. I don’t want it either, in the abstract or ideal.

But it is what it is. If the Stone Cold Steve Austin of democrats emerges and takes the world by storm, I’d bite. It’s not going to be RFK (Democrat Paul Gosar) or Cornell West (a man with a strong argument who I’d love to support).

So a lot of people may answer a poll “I don’t want Biden”, but they will vote for him.

You also have to take into account Trump and republicans in general, just as republicans may say they want another candidate but will still vote Trump.

If you took a poll of all Americans saying “should every member of congress be removed and a new election held for all districts”, you’d probably see a lot of support, and then everyone would go and vote for Biden, Trump, Grassley, etc.

To be fair, we had this argument in 2020. Is he too old, is there enthusiasm, is he really the best chance… No, yes and yes were the answers. Biden has done a good job - depending on who you ask of course - and he doesn’t seem much worse for wear than he did then.

Now, if republicans get their act together and nominate someone else, then I’d say the cause for concern should be there, but even then, republicans are going to do far more to help get their opponent elected than anyone. Damn near everyone on the debate stage said they’d vote for Trump if he was convicted, and that’s something I’d use to hammer the other side with every day. Only Christie and Hutchinson didn’t raise their hand.

 

[Citysnaps]

Now, if republicans get their act together and nominate someone else, then I’d say the cause for concern should be there,

Absolutely.

And if Biden's optics degrade even further, I can see a lot of Dems voting for an r that appears *somewhat* reasonable. Such as Hutchinson or even Haley, should trump be massively convicted on his felonies and is forced to bow out... and desantis not cutting it for some reason.

Or, in another scenario... if Biden's degradation becomes much more physical (rather than optical), say, *after* a few Dem primaries next year that Biden and Harris are sure to win, what is the Plan B? Harris takes the helm as the Dem presidential candidate? I don't know what the rules are should that happen.

My sense is no one is gaming out these, and possibly (many) other, very real possibilities.

Going forward with just fingers crossed is pretty scary.

 

[Yoused]

… if Biden's degradation becomes much more physical (rather than optical), say, *after* a few Dem primaries next year that Biden and Harris are sure to win, what is the Plan B? Harris takes the helm as the Dem presidential candidate? I don't know what the rules are should that happen.

In the primaries and caucuses, delegates are pledged to vote for a candidate. This is like a contractual obligation – they have to vote their pledge for a certain number of ballots (probably three, though it has not gone that far in decades). After satisfying the pledge, they can vote their conscience. Superdelegates, AIUI, may announce their voting intention but are not bound to that by anything other than not looking bad.

If a candidate resigns from the race for whatever reason, their delegates are, IIRC, effectively released from their pledge and can vote their conscience. The candidate may choose to "throw" their delegates over to another candidate, but I believe that is effectively advisory: the released delegates are only obligated to vote for their candidate and will usually respect the "throw" out of propriety but may instead choose to abstain if they do not like the choice.

There is the matter of wanting the Party to win and not wanting to sow discord, so the voting calculation can be pretty difficult for a released delegate. The deals in the "smoke-filled" back rooms can get complicated.

 

[Citysnaps]

If a candidate resigns from the race for whatever reason, their delegates are, IIRC, effectively released from their pledge and can vote their conscience. The candidate may choose to "throw" their delegates over to another candidate, but I believe that is effectively advisory: the released delegates are only obligated to vote for their candidate and will usually respect the "throw" out of propriety but may instead choose to abstain if they do not like the choice.

I'm probably not understanding something...

With respect to delgates and their subsequent votes before the general, is that for primaries already held and decided. (say for Biden/Harris)? Or future primaries where there could be a candidate who (for whatever reason) withdraws and is "missing"? Or both?

I *think* I framed the two scenarios correctly.

 

[Yoused]

I'm probably not understanding something...

With respect to delgates and their subsequent votes before the general, is that for primaries already held and decided. (say for Biden/Harris)? Or future primaries where there could be a candidate who (for whatever reason) withdraws and is "missing"? Or both?

I *think* I framed the two scenarios correctly.

The key part you are missing is that the delegates are pledged to Biden, not to Biden/Harris. The VP is chosen at the convention. Harrs' name would not be on those delegates at all.

Suppose Biden experieces an obvious health issue that makes him unfit, and this first becomes public in April, after numerous primaries. Harris succeeds him in office, becoming President, but none of those Biden delegates are pledged to vote for her, and there are at least 2 months to the convention – who knows what might happen in that time.

 

[Citysnaps]

Suppose Biden experieces an obvious health issue that makes him unfit, and this first becomes public in April, after numerous primaries. Harris succeeds him in office, becoming President, but none of those Biden delegates are pledged to vote for her, and there are at least 2 months to the convention – who knows what might happen in that time.

So, to summarize...

1. Prior to Biden bowing out there are a bunch of delegates, from different states, that were pledged to Biden, but can now choose whoever they want (Harris, Newsom, Booker, Schiff, Randy Rainbow, etc).

2. For the remaining primaries, after Harris has succeeded Biden while in office, or, Biden is still in office but decided to bow out of the 2024 election, then the those primaries can go forward with the winner being the one who wins the most votes of whoever is left on the ballot - perhaps no one. And delgates could then pick their own

Correct?

If so, that seems like it could be pretty chaotic. Possibly with a lot of pissed Dem voters knowing their vote, or potential vote, didn't count.

 

[Yoused]

Thing is, in modern times, with hyperpartisanship ruling the day, this is territory that is largely untrodden. The last sitting President to face genuine primary competition was Jimmy Carter, and that is one reason the incumbent is typically not challenged significantly within his own party: the difficult primary battle was said to have left Carter bruised and weakened.

So it is not really clear what would transpire, depending on the when and the what of the President's withdrawal. I think the rules by state vary, so what happens with his delegates may not be consistent. In some cases, I suspect that the Party committee for the state might claim the right to reselect the delegates for that state.

Of course, if it were to happen after the primaries but before the convention, I imagine the situation would be somewhat fraught and chaotic – after the convention, well, there lies a land I do not wish to visit.

 

[Citysnaps]

Thing is, in modern times, with hyperpartisanship ruling the day, this is territory that is largely untrodden. The last sitting President to face genuine primary competition was Jimmy Carter, and that is one reason the incumbent is typically not challenged significantly within his own party: the difficult primary battle was said to have left Carter bruised and weakened.

So it is not really clear what would transpire, depending on the when and the what of the President's withdrawal. I think the rules by state vary, so what happens with his delegates may not be consistent. In some cases, I suspect that the Party committee for the state might claim the right to reselect the delegates for that state.

Of course, if it were to happen after the primaries but before the convention, I imagine the situation would be somewhat fraught and chaotic – after the convention, well, there lies a land I do not wish to visit.

What a potential mess. And suspect it could be even more nuanced. Possibly with all sorts of challenges.

As much as I like Biden, it would have been nice for him to craft a gracious way to bow out of the 2024 election while there would be plenty of time for the Dems to start fresh. Biden would be a terrific senior foreign policy advisor to whoever the Dem candidate and president would be.

 

[Herdfan]

As much as I like Biden, it would have been nice for him to craft a gracious way to bow out of the 2024 election while there would be plenty of time for the Dems to start fresh.

They can't. If Biden bows out, they are stuck with Harris. Not legally, but how can they drop her. The optics of doing that would be horrible.

 

[Eric]

They can't. If Biden bows out, they are stuck with Harris. Not legally, but how can they drop her. The optics of doing that would be horrible.

Are they? Can't he just bow out and let the chips fall where they may? IMO that would be the best option, the fact that he's now losing to a man as troubled as Trump should be a huge wakeup call for Democrats.

 

[Citysnaps]

Are they? Can't he just bow out and let the chips fall where they may? IMO that would be the best option, the fact that he's now losing to a man as troubled as Trump should be a huge wakeup call for Democrats.

That would be great, and would likely quickly muster up a handful of highly qualified and experienced Dems to run. But imo that window is soon closing.

I think it would be terrific if Michelle Obama tossed her hat in (though in the past she said she had no interest). She'd also come with the best senior advisor one could ask for - at no extra cost.

 

[Citysnaps]

They can't. If Biden bows out, they are stuck with Harris. Not legally, but how can they drop her. The optics of doing that would be horrible.

Maybe not. If Biden bows out early I bet there would be a good number of qualified Dems who otherwise would not run against him, all of a sudden want to run.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Although for different reasons and perceptions, both parties seem to be stuck insisting on doing what is bad for the country AND the party.

If we end up with a President Harris she’d probably end up triggering both the right and left in equal measure and would become the ultimate target of meaningless distraction culture wars. She might even outdo Trump in "so unfair" whining.

 

[Herdfan]

She might even outdo Trump in "so unfair" whining.

Only as long as you can understand what she is say via her word salad.

Maybe not. If Biden bows out early I bet there would be a good number of qualified Dems who otherwise would not run against him, all of a sudden want to run.

If he gets out early enough so that the DNC doesn't look like it is "dumping" Harris. But once the primaries get going, it will be hard for them to move off her.

 

[Chew Toy McCoy]

Only as long as you can understand what she is say via her word salad.

Her word salads are epic and redundant. “It’s important to like things because in liking them you are showing the importance of how much you like things which is important.” She didn’t actually say but it’s not far from what she has said. She’s like a 4th grader writing an essay with a minimum word requirement about a book she didn’t read.

 

[Citysnaps]

If he gets out early enough so that the DNC doesn't look like it is "dumping" Harris. But once the primaries get going, it will be hard for them to move off her.

I'm not so sure dumping her would be a deal killer. But I think it would be critical that he bows out before the primaries, with enough time for others to enter the race and quickly get a campaign going. Otherwise it seems like it would be a big mess with a lot of unhappy voters (at the minimum). And a great opportunity for the r party to pivot and get their act together as trump will likely be winning many felony convictions.

 

[Eric]

Her word salads are epic and redundant. “It’s important to like things because in liking them you are showing the importance of how much you like things which is important.” She didn’t actually say but it’s not far from what she has said. She’s like a 4th grader writing an essay with a minimum word requirement about a book she didn’t read.

I know nothing of these "word salads" and I doubt any average American does either. This sounds like it's probably some Fox News talking points or something.

 

[Yoused]

This sounds like it's probably some Fox News talking points or something.

You need to understand that the genuine Left does not much care for Ms Harris. She would be tolerated, the way Joe the President is tolerated, but to ask the Left to support her would be a major reach. Her base is just too narrow. A Democrat who has difficulty getting the Left on board is in a bad place. Now, Tammy, there is a woman who could rally the troops, just out of her sheer likability.